Yokozuna Promotion Speculation

[Reonito 1,391]

With both Kotozakura (14-1 Y) and Hoshoryu (13-2 J) in line for Yokozuna promotion with a sufficiently strong January performance, I thought I'd pull together some stats on how past Ozeki fared in similar situations. Because promotion standards got tightened dramatically at the time, I'll limit myself to the post-Futahaguro era, 1988-today.

For starters, there have been four prior occasions when two Ozeki recorded at least 13 wins in a tournament. Not only were there no double promotions, there were no single ones either, although some might have resulted in promotion now that the criteria have been relaxed somewhat from the mandatory consecutive yusho in 1988-2012. Asahifuji went 14-1 Y, 12-3 in 1988, missing out on a playoff with the two participating Yokozuna by losing to both of them. And Musashimaru and Wakanohana came the closest to double promotion in 1994, when they followed up 15-0 Y, 14-1 J performances in July with 11-4 and 12-3 results in September, respectively.

Edited November 28, 2024 by Reonito

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

A double promotion seems very unlikely indeed. Especially since neither candidate is the favorite to win it all in January. 

[Dapeng 233]

Double promotion after January basho is sure to happen if Hoshoryu yushos by 15-0 and Kotozakura 14-1. Maybe happen with Hosho yushos by 14-1 and Koto 13-1. Otherwise Hosho will not be promoted.

[Reonito 1,391]

There were 4 Ozeki on the Hatsu 1988 banzuke, one of whom eventually made Yokozuna (Asahifuji), one who famously narrowly missed (Konishiki), and two who were well past their prime. There have been 33 subsequent Ozeki, including the 3 current ones. Eleven of these rikishi reached the highest rank, for a career success rate of roughly 1 in 3. Between them, these men collected 44 Ozeki yusho which started a potential tsuna run; however, only nine of these runs were converted into a promotion, and only Terunofuji got the nod without a second consecutive yusho. If we instead consider the start of a run to be 13+ wins, there were 59 such Ozeki basho; again, nine of these were converted. Of course, there were some pretty crazy misses in the post-Futahagaro days, including Takanohana's 14-1 Y 13-2 J, Musashimaru's 12-3 J 15-0 Y, and Hakuho's 14-1 Y 13-2 J, that would very likely result in promotion today. Still, only something like 1 in 5 to 1 in 6 runs resulted in promotion. The laws of probability suggest that two at once is unlikely indeed, much as I'd love to see it.

[Reonito 1,391]

10 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Double promotion after January basho is sure to happen if Hoshoryu yushos by 15-0 and Kotozakura 14-1. Maybe happen with Hosho yushos by 14-1 and Koto 13-1. Otherwise Hosho will not be promoted.

I think Hoshoryu must take the yusho with 13+ wins, while Kotozakura could get promoted with a strong runner-up finish with 12+. The three most recent promotions came after 26+ wins and one yusho over two basho: Kakuryu 14-1 D 14-1 Y, Kisenosato 12-3 J 14-1 Y and Terunofuji 12-3 Y 13-1 J. And there's a strong need to replace the latter.

[Reonito 1,391]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

A double promotion seems very unlikely indeed. Especially since neither candidate is the favorite to win it all in January. 

You mean assuming Terunofuji is back? Or are you thinking Onosato?

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

31 minutes ago, Reonito said:

You mean assuming Terunofuji is back? Or are you thinking Onosato?

[Dapeng 233]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I think Hoshoryu must take the yusho with 13+ wins, while Kotozakura could get promoted with a strong runner-up finish with 12+. The three most recent promotions came after 26+ wins and one yusho over two basho: Kakuryu 14-1 D 14-1 Y, Kisenosato 12-3 J 14-1 Y and Terunofuji 12-3 Y 13-1 J. And there's a strong need to replace the latter.

Koto may be promoted with 13-2 playoff jun-yusho. In this case,  Hosho (yusho) may also be promoted. With a 12-3 yusho, I think JSK will still promote Koto, but not Hosho.

[Jakusotsu 5,898]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

5 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

A double promotion seems very unlikely indeed. Especially since neither candidate is the favorite to win it all in January. 

You mean assuming Terunofuji is back? Or are you thinking Onosato?

Keep in mind that it's Hatsu Basho, so a M17 will throw his hat in the ring.

[WAKATAKE 2,650]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

There were 4 Ozeki on the Hatsu 1988 banzuke, one of whom eventually made Yokozuna (Asahifuji), one who famously narrowly missed (Konishiki), and two who were well past their prime. There have been 33 subsequent Ozeki, including the 3 current ones. Eleven of these rikishi reached the highest rank, for a career success rate of roughly 1 in 3. Between them, these men collected 44 Ozeki yusho which started a potential tsuna run; however, only nine of these runs were converted into a promotion, and only Terunofuji got the nod without a second consecutive yusho. If we instead consider the start of a run to be 13+ wins, there were 59 such Ozeki basho; again, nine of these were converted. Of course, there were some pretty crazy misses in the post-Futahagaro days, including Takanohana's 14-1 Y 13-2 J, Musashimaru's 12-3 J 15-0 Y, and Hakuho's 14-1 Y 13-2 J, that would very likely result in promotion today. Still, only something like 1 in 5 to 1 in 6 runs resulted in promotion. The laws of probability suggest that two at once is unlikely indeed, much as I'd love to see it.

I'd like to note that Terunofuji had already won 2 consecutive yusho and could have made it three, only losing to the yusho winner before he got promoted

[Hankegami 478]

Considering that both the JSA (via Hakkaku) and the YDC confirmed that both men are on a tsuna run, I believe they are open to any result that fits with the last three precedents (Kakuryu, Kisenosato, Terunofuji). This is actually a very good concession especially to Hoshoryu, since in the other modern cases of double promotion (1942, Akinoumi & Terukuni; 1961, Taiho & Kashiwado; 1970, Kitanofuji & Tamanoumi) a doten was always demanded.

Now, I know not everyone is a fan of maths in Ozumo, but I think that (neither contestant having the career track record of Kisenosato and Terunofuji) the minimal threshold will likely be no less than 27/30, with Hoshoryu getting the Cup - zero cups in the run, zero chances of promotion. This entails a mirror result to this basho, although of course a better result is always welcome.

Now, estimating their actual chances of pulling this off is not straightforward. Both the Ozeki came from a meagre 8-7 in Aki, and no one was expecting this result in Kyushu. There are plenty of reasons to suspect an one-off performance from at least one of them. On the one hand, Kotozakura had a better 2024 but his sumo looked much the same to me. On the other hand, Hoshoryu's sumo definitely stepped up, and yet he failed to secure the cup. In many senses, they are also the dark horses for Hatsu 2025. The biggest prospect is Onosato "not yokozuna yet?" Daiki, who might well enjoy the chance to recharge his batteries with Christmas and enter Hatsu in his full strength. Terunofuji is much expected to enter also (must test the tsunatori duo), and he's the day one favourite as long as his knees keep him up. Takerufuji might also play spoiler. His Kyushu result was unimpressive, but he clearly wrestled differently from his usual. All three might provide major challenges.

In short, the chances that both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu are going to be promoted after Hatsu are not high. Either could turn up having had a fluke in Hatsu. But neither are zero. Chances are never zero until there are too many losses to make the promotion viable.

[Koorifuu 931]

3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Keep in mind that it's Hatsu Basho, so a M17 will throw his hat in the ring.

I'll place some bets on Tamashoho.

[RabidJohn 1,744]

The YDC confirming Hoshoryu as tsunatori with a 13-2J following a 9-4-2 at Nagoya and an Aki 8-7 tells me the bar has definitely been lowered.

If I were Kotozakura, having just cleared the 'traditional' 1st hurdle with a 14-1Y, I'd be a little miffed.

My prediction for Hatsu 25 is neither with get the rope, but Onosato will start his run.

As this is a speculation thread, though, I'll speculate. What if the result is Kotozakura 15-0Y, Hoshoryu 14-1J?
Kotozakura would be promoted, no arguments, but Hoshoryu also improved on the score that put him on a run...
I'm uneasy about the implications of that, but Hoshoryu does at least already have a yusho.

[Dapeng 233]

4 hours ago, Hankegami said:

In short, the chances that both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu are going to be promoted after Hatsu are not high

As mentioned in a previous post, a tsuna-run had a successful rate of 20% (9/44). Koto should also have about 20% of chance in January. Since YDC had affirmed Hosho is on a run in January, he is also supposed to have 20% of chance but I think his chance is smaller than Koto, say 15%. Thus the possibility of a double promotion in January is quite low, only about 3%.

[Hankegami 478]

3 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

As this is a speculation thread, though, I'll speculate. What if the result is Kotozakura 15-0Y, Hoshoryu 14-1J?
Kotozakura would be promoted, no arguments, but Hoshoryu also improved on the score that put him on a run...
I'm uneasy about the implications of that, but Hoshoryu does at least already have a yusho.

I doubt they are going back down the path of "full equivalents". They rejected a lot of respectable Y-JY combinations since 2004 exactly not to make it too easy. I think it will go down to the Kisenosato path: try again until you get at least one Yusho in your run. Several Yokozuna runs have been three basho long runs - for instance Onokuni in 1987 (15-0Y 12-3J 13-2J). I doubt they will ever rush things up especially whether A) Kotozakura gets back-to-back as in your speculation B) Onosato wins the basho and triggers his own run (as per your other expectation). They are badly looking for a Yokozuna, but not for Hoshoryu necessarily.

[Reonito 1,391]

9 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Keep in mind that it's Hatsu Basho, so a M17 will throw his hat in the ring.

I'm really not seeing it from the likes of Nishikifuji, Tokihayate or Shiden, but after Tokushoryu, who knows?

[Reonito 1,391]

The real issue is that we just don't have enough data for the current era. Before 1988, there was nothing unusual about a 12-3 J 13-2 J promotion (Hokutoumi, the current chair), and there were even cases like 10-5 13-2 D (Tamanoumi). The 8 promotions from 1990 (Asahifuji) through 2012 (Harumafuji) were all consecutive yusho, and I noted some of the most extreme misses during this period above. Since 2012, we've had only 3 promotions, also as detailed above. The closest misses since then are Kisenosato's consecutive 13-2 J in 2016, when they were waiting for him to finally win a yusho, and, if we insist on having a yusho as part of the run, Takakeisho's 12-3 J 13-2 Y in 2020 and 12-3 D 12-3 Y in 2022. One might conclude from this that the current standard is 26 wins over two basho with at least one yusho and at least a jun-yusho in the other, which is why I wrote above that Hoshoryu likely needs a yusho with 13+ wins and Kotozakura a strong jun-yusho with 12+ wins in which he's in the race late in the basho, but we won't really know unless one or both of them put up big numbers in January and we get to see what the YDC and the JSA actually do.

[Sumo Spiffy 550]

17 hours ago, Reonito said:

I think Hoshoryu must take the yusho with 13+ wins, while Kotozakura could get promoted with a strong runner-up finish with 12+. The three most recent promotions came after 26+ wins and one yusho over two basho: Kakuryu 14-1 D 14-1 Y, Kisenosato 12-3 J 14-1 Y and Terunofuji 12-3 Y 13-1 J. And there's a strong need to replace the latter.

These are all reasons why I think a 12-3 JY isn't going to cut it for Koto. Likewise, I have my doubts about a 12-3 yusho for Hoshoryu. Kakuryu and Teru's non-yushos were still extremely dominant performances, and Kisenosato had JY'd literally 50% of his bashos for three and a half years (!!) before he finally took a yusho. If ever there was a case of "for the love of god just win a fking tournament so we can promote you", Kisenosato is it. And Kakuryu and Teru both had histories of dominance that Koto and Hoshoryu don't.

If we end up with, say, a 13-2 Y from Hoshoryu and a 12-3 JY from Koto, maybe they both get it because it would be odd to promote one and not the other. But the mitigating factor here, obviously, is how badly they want to let Teru retire. How much are they willing to rely on hope rather than evidence in order to let Teru rest?

Personally, I hope they don't pull the trigger too quickly. If they don't promote and the next tournament whoever they might have promoted only goes 10-5, then it looks like a smart call from a yokozuna expectation standpoint. And it's not like these guys, and Onosato, and maybe even certain others, don't look like they'll reach that level sooner or later. But if they do promote and the new yokozuna only goes 10-5, maybe the whole thing is a disaster. I'd rather see them run with, say, 14-12-12 or 13-12-13 with one yusho and two JYs, because then if the new yokozuna falls apart, at least they can say, look, how much longer did you expect us to wait?

[Gurowake 4,033]

When I posted my thoughts in the main thread, I was almost certainly somewhat generous in what I said there, but that's because I basically think they will promote almost anyone that has a reasonable-looking promotion and the YDC signs off on.  I really wasn't thinking about how important the latter might be in cases where things aren't as clear cut as they have been in the promotions we've seen since the Futahaguro fiasco.  It's possible that Konishiki wasn't going to get the thumbs up from the YDC without the two consecutive yusho that would make the promotion effectively mandatory.  In light of that, and given Hoshoryu's pedigree, I now feel it's going to be a bit of a uphill battle to win them over now that he lost the yusho this basho. 

The only question is how much they want to be able to promote *someone* so they're not left without a Yokozuna in a few basho when it's clear Terunofuji will need to retire.  If both tsunatori Ozeki do somewhat well next basho but one is clearly a weaker promotion, then they're fairly free to only promote the better one.  The issue would really only arise if we get some scores that might have been good enough pre-Futahaguro and also don't have Onosato start his own tsuna run, where they might feel like they don't want to lose their chance at getting a Yokozuna and have something at least passable to promote.  The latter issue is why my suggested criteria before were very lenient, and I simply don't know if they really care all that much about having no Yokozuna.  They're at least looking at 3 Ozeki that should be around a while, the possible lack of which was the more concerning factor before all of the currently Ozeki made it up there.

I don't think giving exact numbers is actually all that useful either, because I'm sure it will come down to how Yokozuna-like they look in their matches, and it presumably will be important that their losses are fairly strong; I'm not sure what they think about Hoshoryu's loss on senshuraku, but it seems like most fans thought it was disappointing. 

[Gurowake 4,033]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

And Kakuryu and Teru both had histories of dominance that Koto and Hoshoryu don't.

I don't think this is really all that true for Kakuryu.  He hadn't really done anything significant that could be seen as being any more dominant than Kotozakura until the former had his Yokozuna run.  At least one commentator at the time thought the fact that Kakuryu was technically on a Yokozuna run pointless to consider, as he had a long string of sub-12 tournaments as an Ozeki, looking far worse overall that Kisenosato.   The only thing Kakuryu might have had going for him was a longer history in the joi and never being kadoban, but he had yet to even come close to another run that would have gotten him to Ozeki again if he'd been passed over initially (whereas Kisenosato had).  I wouldn't call that dominance at all.

Edited November 28, 2024 by Gurowake

[RabidJohn 1,744]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

Before 1988, there was nothing unusual about a 12-3 J 13-2 J promotion (Hokutoumi, the current chair)...

That was 12-3Y, 13-2J, but I take your point. His promotion was not triggered by consecutive yusho, nor was Chiyonofuji's or Onokuni's.

The common factor was having won at least one yusho, but that yusho did not trigger the promotion so much as cause them to consider whether or not the winner was suitable for promotion. It was a pragmatic way of doing things that was not undone by the promotion of Futahaguro, as he should not have even been considered. No, it came to an end because they didn't want Konishiki as their star attraction, and the consecutive yusho requirement was a convenient way of avoiding it. 

Times have changed.

 

[Katooshu 3,182]

I am hoping Onosato eventually becomes yokozuna, so we can call him Yoko Ono

[Reonito 1,391]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

That was 12-3Y, 13-2J, but I take your point. His promotion was not triggered by consecutive yusho, nor was Chiyonofuji's or Onokuni's.

You're right, I was one row off on the query—it was Onokuni who was promoted 4 months later with 12-3 J, 13-2 J, so no yusho in the two basho pre-promotion, but he did have one, and a zensho at that, immediately before that. He only won one more the rest of his career, so retired with two. Futahaguro is the only Yokozuna who never won a tournament; not sure if there were any with exactly one yusho.

This was the last promotion before they tightened it to consecutive yusho.

[Asashosakari 19,150]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

and there were even cases like 10-5 13-2 D (Tamanoumi).

49 minutes ago, Reonito said:

it was Onokuni who was promoted 4 months later with 12-3 J, 13-2 J, so no yusho in the two basho pre-promotion, but he did have one, and a zensho at that, immediately before that.

I mean, it's essentially part of the accepted historical record that the pre-Futahaguro YDCs were very open to considering information that extended beyond the results of two tournaments, so it's somewhat pointless to look at those cases like that. Taking three consecutive tournaments as a "run" was perfectly normal, but it didn't even stop there:

For the Kashiwado/Taiho double promotion, where Taiho's ascent was obviously a slam dunk case with back-to-back yusho, the YDC arguments in favour of also promoting Kashiwado essentially came down to their broadly comparable long-term success* as well as Kashiwado's specific head-to-head strength, making him "equal to Taiho". They weren't deluded enough to believe that 11-4, 12-3 D alone was any sort of promotion quality run. One may well posit that their arguments were bunk, but one shouldn't act as though they weren't made at all.

* With Kashiwado having to face both incumbent yokozuna Asashio and Wakanohana, while Taiho was only required to battle Asashio under the rules of the day.

Edited November 29, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 550]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I don't think this is really all that true for Kakuryu.  He hadn't really done anything significant that could be seen as being any more dominant than Kotozakura until the former had his Yokozuna run.  At least one commentator at the time thought the fact that Kakuryu was technically on a Yokozuna run pointless to consider, as he had a long string of sub-12 tournaments as an Ozeki, looking far worse overall that Kisenosato.   The only thing Kakuryu might have had going for him was a longer history in the joi and never being kadoban, but he had yet to even come close to another run that would have gotten him to Ozeki again if he'd been passed over initially (whereas Kisenosato had).  I wouldn't call that dominance at all.

Yeah, you're right. For some reason I thought Koto only had two JYs when I was looking at Kakuryu's page, which I combined with Kakuryu's longer run at ozeki to make that statement. So, I guess the question is how much less than 14/14 could Kakuryu have done and still gotten the rope?