Akinomaki

Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

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11 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

The only other time I saw this (I think with Harumafuji), it had some influence on the bout, the one who lost noticed the hand and stopped to resist. This time it was behind Kotozakura's back, neither of the rikishi would notice it, nor did the gyoji stop the bout - complete bureaucratic nonsense.

 

As soon as the hand went up, the gyoji pointed his gumbai and undoubtedly verbally called the match (though I couldn't hear on the replay I watched), so though I don't believe Koto could have recovered, there was reason to believe he had been unfairly influenced.

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Anyone with some impressions with St. Hakuho? He is at 2-2 so far this tournament but has anyone watched him to elaborate how he is doing?

Edited by I am the Yokozuna

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Still a week to go and anything can happen and usually does, but Hoshoryu's tsuna run is looking rather unstoppable at the moment. 

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All the leaderboard looked impressive today, especially Chiyoshoma.

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What a fantastic bout between Oho and Hoshoryu!

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Good day 7, everyone! I'm going to bother you with a longer commentary today - I have more time to take my notes in the weekend :-P Let's go in order of bouts.

Former "Reiwa Monster" Hakuoho won today against Tamashoho, but we worryingly showed a taped up neck - new injury? The boy has had a collection of them throughout his career. I fear that he might turn up to be the next Endo - or even worse, the next Jokoryu. I hope not, it would be an absolute waste o talent. Tamashoho himself doesn't look like he belongs to Makuuchi - the more the days go on, the more he looks like as having a guest appearance before going back to Juryo.

Kotoshoho also lost today against a not-so-unbeatable Kagayaki. I never really rooted for him, but he looked quite spirited this tournament so I thought he was going to fare well. Doesn't look so.

Props to Tamawashi for getting back on track against Nishikigi - yet another dark horse in this tournament. The Grand Old Man looks once again like he's cruising for a most remarkable result this basho. I am most glad.

Oshoma vs. Takerufuji was an entertaining bout. The Mongolian got an arm lock on Traps boy early in the bout, but the Truck managed to get out of it and jeet out his adversary. Takerufuji still looking very good and fully capable to play spoilers.

Ichiyamamoto vs. Ura was another bout I liked. Itchy is not exactly a joy regular but he's having a great basho. However, Ura managed to get the gunbai on his side after a close battle, winning by last second oshidashi before being slapped to the ground. I like them both, but Ura needed this win more.

Tobizaru vs. Shodai was another looker. Shodai actually tried to win this, but Tobizaru did a nice reversal and won. The Monkey is seriously doing good.

Before going on with the commentary, I'd like to spare a minute for those having a bad basho. I already mentioned apparent journeyman Tamashoho, but other people looking awful today include also Shonannoumi (managed to rack a couple wins but got back showing no forwarding power today), Midorifuji (no magic at all this basho), Meisei (lost to old man Takarafuji, c'mon), and Endo (gifted an easy shiroboshi to an unimpressive Hiradoumi). Honor mention for Roga, just retired again after showing up to get a beating. I don't even mention Mitakeumi anymore because it's business as usual with him now (a belt battle between him and Takayasu? Seriously?). Eght more days and we're done, boys.

Back to the comments, I am bittersweet that Kirishima looks healthy again after all his troubles and terrible start of a basho. That last minute throw against Wakatakakage was regal. Wakatakakage himself is not doing fantastically, but I am not as troubled for him as I am for Wakamotoharu (clearly out of shape - to be added up to the aforementioned list).

Now, the Ozeki, the new face of Ozumo for this basho. Onosato, known for jetting people out, had to get a belt battle against Atamifuji - and for a few moments I thought he was going to lose. Lucky him, Atomic has to move his lazy ass more to be anything more than a Terunofuji look-alike. I share my birthday with Atamifuji (only month and day, though), so I always root for him, but I'm also pragmatic. I wasn't thrilled by Onosato, anyway. Kotozakura surprisingly (?) switched to a black mawashi with an apparent sparkly golden inlay today. Somberness, but only up to some point. He had a hard belt battle against Gonoyama despite this - and Gonoyama almost got him - yeah, with his renown belt skills. KZK, however, showed his skills despite his injuries, and snatched a win by dancing masterfully on the tawara on his good right leg. Another Ozeki not looking magnificent, but I guess he will stay for another day.

Finally, ladies and gentlemen, Oho vs. Hoshoryu. An entertaining battle, although Oho mostly danced to Hoshoryu's music. The Nephew won the tachi-ai (again a pusher-thruster, looks good) and even recovered to a remarkable redirection from Oho, getting to his back and giving him an okuridashi - although Oho forced him to fall also. Hoshoryu wasn't 100% dominant, but it was an assertive win nevertheless. He can totally pull a Yusho win from there.

Final remarks: Day 7 means 8 days still to go, but the arasoi appears stable already. The 7-0 leadership duo is cruising easy at the moment. Chiyosohoma is getting a really lucky run, and his fusen win from Roga today also means a day off for him. I think we will have to wait some time before he starts getting losses. Same for Kinbozan, although we are getting an entertaining match for tomorrow: Kinbozan vs. Tamawashi. Things are gradually getting spicy finally. The other members of the 6-1 quarters also look good. Oho is continuing his visit to the Ozeki, but it's not going to be a beating necessary. Takerufuji is not yet done with the lower rankers (tomorrow the chef proposes Kitanowaka). And finally, Hoshoryu is having Shodai - not a worrisome foe by the look of his current performances (although ok, it's Shodai, never say never). I don't feel great danger from the 5-2 bunch instead. Daieisho is ok, but it looks the usual Daieisho to me. Tobizaru also looks good, but his doesn't fell like a Yusho performance to me. That's all. Nothing more to the horizon at the moment, I'd say.

10 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Is a 12-3 yusho enough for a promotion?

10 hours ago, Reonito said:

Normally, I'd say 13-2 J 12-3 Y seems likely to be denied, but under the current circumstances, I'd bet yes. 

I doubt the JSA is going to scrap their guidelines that much. Historically, a 25/30 (13-2 12-3 in any sense) is unlikely - although not unheard of - to result in a Yokozuna promotion (see here, 3/15 or 20%, scrap Taiho because his was a Y-Y). More than else, the recent case of Takakeisho (12-3J 13-2Y, Aki-Kyushu 2020) would put the JSA in an embarrassing position, were they to promote Hoshoryu with the same result.

Considering the dire need for a new Yokozuna, I think the cut is more a minimum of 13 wins (aka 13-2Y). There is a much better history for a 26/30 result in the annals (see here, and excluding Y-Y it gives a 6/13 incidence, or 45%). This query is also inflated by the many denied promotions of the post-Futahaguro era, and by putting the bar before 1987 we get a 4/6 incidence, or 66% (the two unfortunate cases being the double equivalents of Sadanoyama and the future Wakanohana II). To be fair, this query also includes several double equivalents, and the actual Y-J (or reverse formulas) concern only the successful runs of Sadanoyama in 1964 (13-2J 13-2Y) and Kitanoumi in 1974 (13-2Y 13-2D). Most importantly, there is no recent case going against such a decision. 

We talked a lot about this already. Hoshoryu doesn't have the background that Kisenosato and Terunofuji had to back their 12-3, 14-1 results, but neither he has Hakuho's "youth" from his 2006 denied promotion (an actually baffling decision, likely driven by the fact that he was only in his second basho as an Ozeki). Hoshoryu, albeit not providing a stellar resume, is still an Ozeki in his 9th basho at the rank, and in his 18th basho without a MK.

I think we should go back to the fundamentals of Yokozuna promotion, i.e. showing "Yokozuna sumo". Hoshoryu is being dominant for the second straight basho, although (differently from Kotozakura) he didn't have to go through the Yusho winner's charade. That said, a 13-2Y can be passed under precedents (or lack thereof in the more recent evidence), but a 12-3Y is too risky and IMHO would trigger a "do it again" response. The JSA is certainly bummed by a Nokozuna era, but they went through it once and they have also to think about precedents. If Hoshoryu is really the big boss of the circus, he can do that a third time too, instead of opening a can of worms by giving him an easy pass.

Edited by Hankegami
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21 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

The JSA is certainly bummed by a Nokozuna era, but they went through it once and they have also to think about precedents. 

It's over 30 years ago, so the leadership was totally different, but the NSK did not lower the bar for yokozuna promotion because there was no yokozuna on the banzuke.
Akebono's promotion followed back to back yusho, and they felt comfortable enough to let Takanohana win 6 14-1 yusho as an ozeki before finally promoting him following his back to back 7th and 8th. 
Different times!

The current leadership has lowered the bar simply by announcing Hoshoryu as tsunatori.
I did not expect that, as they haven't yet had to face another period with no yokozuna on the banzuke.
The end of the Hakuho era and the whole of the Terunofuji era have seen many basho take place with no yokozuna appearing on the dohyo, but it doesn't seem to have stopped them selling out venues.

I'm torn. Part of me wants Hoshoryu to take the yusho, so the NSK can stop panicking and normal service can resume, but part of me wants Chiyoshoma, Oho, Kinbozan or Tamawashi to win. Then they'll have to have a banzuke with no yokozuna and realise it's not the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

It's over 30 years ago, so the leadership was totally different, but the NSK did not lower the bar for yokozuna promotion because there was no yokozuna on the banzuke.
Akebono's promotion followed back to back yusho, and they felt comfortable enough to let Takanohana win 6 14-1 yusho as an ozeki before finally promoting him following his back to back 7th and 8th. 
Different times!

The current leadership has lowered the bar simply by announcing Hoshoryu as tsunatori.

I think that the "Futahaguro scare" had a lot to do with their choice of - actually - raising the bar back then. I was just a child back in the 1990s, but I understood that the NSK got a lot of backlash for their "rushed" promotions of Futahaguro (no Yusho and expelled for bad behavior) and Onokuni (two Yusho, a MK as a Yokozuna, and a premature retirement at 28). Their priority was to show sterner standards, not the opposite. Also, it never happened that a Nokozuna era (already rare by themselves) failed to get a new dominant figure very soon. They had literally no reasons to rush for a promotion, all the opposite*.

Now, we are in a 2/3 Nokozuna era since Haru 2022 (Terunofuji's first withdrawal as a Yokozuna), yet no rikishi ever stepped up to take the mantle. We can blame Terunofuji himself for his occasional epiphanies, although the only occasion in which he certainly smashed a tsuna run was in January 2024 (and Kirishima under-performed anyway). Terunofuji's absence is even more evident from Aki 2022 onward. That's 15 basho, or 2y 6 m, since the solitary Yokozuna has been more out than in the ring (Teru did the full 15 days in only 3 of those bashos - winning every single time also - making up for a 20% presence and 80% absence).

In theory, an even field is expected not to produce any Yokozuna, since the latter is an Ozeki that over-performs the usual Ozeki standards. However, Ozumo has never really been without a Yokozuna since 1890, also the first instance in which the honor became an official rank in the banzuke (by insistence of the new Yokozuna Nishinoumi I). It only happened twice, in 1931-32, and in 1992-93. In the first instance there was actually a Yokozuna candidate (Tamanishiki) but he was held back for over a year, the second looked like a momentary accident. Also, in 1992-93 the leitmotiv was "please wait some time for a true Yokozuna to show up >:-(", now it is "we are going to get any Yokozuna in the near future, yes? (Beingunsure...)". We are gone through a handful of failed attempts already, from Takakeisho (2023), to Kirishima (2024), to Kotozakura (2025). Golden Boy Onosato is not giving good signals anymore, and it is only good pragmatism on their part to take any good occasion for a promotion. I don't mean they are to lower the bar to a ridiculous level, but setting for an acceptable basic standard might solve many problems and exorcise the running fear that Ozumo is not the same anymore. As I said, they are not going to promote Hoshoryu at all costs, but if he shows promises of becoming a dominant enough rikishi they can find a middle ground.

*To put things in perspectives, since 1789 (Tanikaze and Onogawa) we have the following Nokozuna eras: 1798-1828 (from Onogawa's retirement to Onomatsu's promotion), 1839-1840 (from Inazuma to Shiranui I) 1844-1847 (Shiranui to Hidenoyama) 1850-1861 (Hidenoyama to Unryu), 1870-1877 (Kimenzan to Sakaigawa, also Civil War and restoration in Japan), 1881-1884 (Sakaigawa to Umegatani I), 1885-1890 (Umegatani I to Nishinoumi I), 1931-1932 (Miyagiyama to Tamanishiki), 1992-1993 (Hokutoumi to Akebono). Most instances belong to an era before the setting of promotion standards for the Yokozuna, and the long hiatuses are more caused by politics than by an actual even field. I show how long they would actually have endured with modern promotion standards - and how uncommon is for Ozumo to be without a dominant figure for long times.

In short, while considering an actual absence of top dogs, in a few instances the interregnum lasted up to 7 basho spread over 3 years. However, the present "Ghost Yokozuna" issue has been going on for 15 basho, which is roughly double the on-dohyo time spent in other instances. Anyway, the presence of a Yokozuna was clearly felat as more episodical in the 1800s, so the pressure on the Yoshida Clan (the old organizers of sumo tournaments) was totally different to that upon the NSK today.

Spoiler

 

1798-1828 (after Fuyu 1798 - Haru 1828, 57 basho, 29 y 6 m) - Of course there's Raiden ("won" all competitions between Fuyu 1796 and 1799). Raiden retired in 1811, by which time Kashiwado IV (back-to-back Haru-Fuyu 1808) was still active. He retired in Haru 1812, but Kashiwado V "won" a back-to-back in Fuyu 1812 - Haru 1813. Kashiwado V himself retired in Haru 1825, after fellow "YokOzeki" Tamagaki IV (back-to-back Haru-Fuyu 1820) who retired in 1824. Onomatsu was given the actual rank by Haru 1828. So we have:

  • Haru 1812 - Haru 1813 (3 basho, 1 y 6 m)
  • Haru 1825 - Haru 1828 (6 basho, 3 y 0 m)

1839-1840 (absence Haru - Fuyu 1840, 2 basho, 1 y) This is tricky. Hidenoyama (actually promoted in 1847) won a back-to-back in Haru and Fuyu 1839, but it is doubtful whether he would have been already an Ozeki in modern Ozumo (he was M1w and K1w in reality). Without a proper rank, we can confirm a one year gap between Inazuma and Shiranui I.

1844-1847 (absence Fuyu 1844 - Fuyu 1847, 7 basho, 3y 6 m) Hidenoyama made again a back-to back in Fuyu 1844 and Haru 1845, shortening the virtual void to the sole Haru 1845 basho.

  • After Fuyu 1844 - Haru 1845 (1 basho, 6 m)

1850-1861 (after Haru 1850 - Fuyu 1861, 23 basho, 11 y 6 m) There are several wrestlers that did a back-to-back in this period, such as Koyanagi III (Haru - Fuyu 1847), Kumagatani II (Haru - Fuyu 1949), and Unryu himself (Haru - Fuyu 1852), and future Yokozuna Kimenzan (Haru - Fuyu 1860). The differences with modern Ozumo make it difficult to make sure that any of them would have been an Ozeki by the time of their exploits, but the general pattern suggest that the 1850-1861 period didn't actually see a void at the top.

1870-1877 (after Haru 1870 - Haru 1877, 15 basho, 7 y 6 m) Kimenzan retired in the afterwards of the Boshin War, and in general this period is known for the plethora of unofficial Yokozuna that plagued the annals of the sports during this decade. Sakaigawa (promoted Haru 1877) is the only one recognized today. However, by following the tournaments in Tokyo sumo, Sakaigawa himself was on a rampage between 1869 and 1870, missing out only the Haru 1870 "Yusho". So - no real gap again.

1881-1884 (Haru 1881 - Haru 1884, 7 basho, 3 y 6 m) Umegatani I won Haru and Fuyu 1881 as the Ozeki rank, showing once again that most gaps in the 1800s were more bureaucratic than anything else.

1885-1890 (Fuyu 1885 - Haru 1890, 10 basho, 5 y 0 m) Umegatani I retired while Ozeki Odate was on a rampage (Fuyu 1884 - Fuyu 1885). According to his Wikipedia page, Odate was a troublemaker and was most likely denied the rank of Yokozuna for his lack of hinkaku (laughs in Asashoryu). The evidence also shows that he was actually treated unfairly, being jumped over by good boy Nishinoumi I. Beside from him, Ozeki Tsurugizan also went back-to-back in Haru and Fuyu 1886, but no cigar nor rope for him either. In short, this void was more created by politics than by anything else.

1931-1932 (Sangatsu [modern Haru] 1931 - Natsu 1932, 4 basho era, so 6 basho, 1 year 6 months) Tamanishiki actually won Jūgatsu 1930 and Haru (modern Hatsu) 1931 as an Ozeki, making him viable for promotion. This was at first delayed (they told him to win four basho in a row) and then scrapped out entirely until they changed their mind after his win in Natsu 1932. I was told that this was done bacause Tamanishiki was yet another troublemaker. But again, no void at the top.

 

 

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Just to be clear, I would not denigrate Hoshoryu's promotion if he wins this time.

He is not responsible for the fact that the only consistent thing about yokozuna promotion criteria over the last couple of centuries is the inconsistency of application.

No, I will wish him well and hope he doesn't go the way of his uncle.

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Mixed feelings today as apart from a few bouts it felt like a day of ho-hum sumo.

Kinbozan is demolishing lower makuuchi. I'll expect he'll be fed to the higher ranks soon if he keeps it up. But the groove he's in, he might turn out to be more competitive than expected.

I was waiting for Tamawashi to show some of his famed yotsu skills against Nishikigi today, but he settled for a simple pulldown. From a slightly disadvantageous position that's a good result which keeps him in contention for now. I can't wait to see him teach Hoshoryu a lesson in the playoff :-P Ok, that's probably too much to expect but anything can happen.

Midorifuji has to find some wins soon, otherwise he is in danger of dropping to juryo. Most of this basho he doesn't quite seem to have a plan to his sumo, or if he has one it's a strange one like going inside with Shonannoumi. No katasukashi in sight either. Hopefully it's just a blip, though having to fight against everyone bigger and stronger than you is certainly exhausting in the long term.

Shodai was trying to do some big man sumo against Tobizaru and almost succeeded, but Tobizaru managed to pull a last minute magic trick and won. At this point it's hard to believe Shodai was an ozeki at some point. Then again the same applies to Mitakeumi and recently Takayasu as well. In a way perhaps Takakeisho did the right thing by retiring early.

Takanosho is starting his comeback now! Good work staying inside and focused on Abi. He still has time to get double digits :-) Too bad he couldn't get one last kinboshi off Terunofuji before he retired.

It looks like we might have a few openings in sanyaku after this basho. The Waka brothers are on a makekoshi course, though Wakatakakage has some hope even though he hasn't looked stellar after the first days. I expect Abi to get a kachikoshi almost certainly. Kirishima, Tobizaru and Oho are all waiting for the sanyaku results to see if they are able to squeeze in and I wouldn't count out Gonoyama either, or Chiyoshoma who would then be in prime position for this ozeki run ;-)

Onosato had lots of trouble against Atamifuji who seeming is recovering from his bad start. But most of the trouble was caused by Onosato himself letting Atamifuji get a good inside grip so he should be glad to get the win, especially since he stepped out only one microsecond after Atamifuji. Seems like that was the common denominator with the Japanese ozekis today as Kotozakura pulled off a similar miraculous escape.

Oho put up a good fight but once Hoshoryu moved behind him that was it. Unfortunate, otherwise we could've seen an even better bout. I hope Oho won't feel disheartened because he's having an amazing basho. Hoshoryu has so far being the only ozeki doing actual ozeki sumo. The timing for his peaking is impeccable with all the top ranks having issues. Unless he's surprised by some lower ranking contenders, he's got to be the favourite for the yusho at this point.

Edited by dingo
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6 hours ago, Hankegami said:

More than else, the recent case of Takakeisho (12-3J 13-2Y, Aki-Kyushu 2020) would put the JSA in an embarrassing position, were they to promote Hoshoryu with the same result.

It's not like they're known for their consistency: Takakeisho was denied Ozeki after 33/3, and the following year both Asanoyama and Shodai got promoted after 32/3.

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New conspiracy theory: did the NSK maliciously deny Takakeisho his deserved ranks? (Holidayfeeling...)

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I think for Hoshuryu, barring an injury,  that 13 wins is a given. The rest of the sanyaku are not having the kind of basho to suggest they'll give him issues. The only question is if it's a yusho. If it is, he's Yokozuna. I don't see 12 wins getting the yusho this basho.

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1 hour ago, dingo said:

New conspiracy theory: did the NSK maliciously deny Takakeisho his deserved ranks? (Holidayfeeling...)

In 2020? I would say no. in January 2023? I would say very much so.  Yes, it's two 12 wins, but it was also his 3rd Yusho and November was a playoff.

Edited by Rocks

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11 minutes ago, MrGrumpyGills said:

They were going unnecessarily hard on him in my opinion. I still wonder why.

Takakeisho? People always look askance at perceived over achievers.

Edited by Rocks

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37 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I think for Hoshuryu, barring an injury,  that 13 wins is a given. The rest of the sanyaku are not having the kind of basho to suggest they'll give him issues. The only question is if it's a yusho. If it is, he's Yokozuna. I don't see 12 wins getting the yusho this basho.

Not sure who else is getting to 13. Nothing in Chiyoshoma's or Kinbozan's resumes suggests they can do it, and presumably Hoshoryu would get to face any challengers still in the race down the stretch.

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34 minutes ago, Rocks said:

In 202? I would say no. in January 2023? I would say very much so.  Yes, it's two 12 wins, but it was also his 3rd Yusho and November was a playoff.

You'd have to go back to 1959 to find a promotion after 24/2, and to the pre-Futahaguro 1980's to even find one after 25/2. It seems like the bar in recent decades has been set at 26/2 with at least a Y and a D/J, unless their hand is forced by YY (which hasn't happened). There's clearly a difference of opinion whether 25/2 with a 12-3 Y would be enough for Hoshoryu given that the alternative is nokozuna.

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11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Not sure who else is getting to 13. Nothing in Chiyoshoma's or Kinbozan's resumes suggests they can do it, and presumably Hoshoryu would get to face any challengers still in the race down the stretch.

Tamawashi has done it twice already.

Edited by Rocks

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1 minute ago, Rocks said:

Tamawashi's done it twice already.

True, though as amazing as he is, he's not getting younger. Takerufuji is obviously a dark horse too, though there's a bunch of head-to-head bouts still to come among the 7-0 and 6-1 group, and a lot of san'yaku opposition if they keep winning.

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

You'd have to go back to 1959 to find a promotion after 24/2, and to the pre-Futahaguro 1980's to even find one after 25/2. It seems like the bar in recent decades has been set at 26/2 with at least a Y and a D/J, unless their hand is forced by YY (which hasn't happened). There's clearly a difference of opinion whether 25/2 with a 12-3 Y would be enough for Hoshoryu given that the alternative is nokozuna.

True, but I think they are going to have to adjust things going forward. I think the era of a broad strong field are over. Even the best aren't going to be very consistent anymore it seems. I think the Ozeki Carousel lately is indicative of that. if they want any Yokozuna going forward they are going to have to be a bit less stringent.

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20 minutes ago, Rocks said:

True, but I think they are going to have to adjust things going forward. I think the era of a broad strong field are over. Even the best aren't going to be very consistent anymore it seems. I think the Ozeki Carousel lately is indicative of that. if they want any Yokozuna going forward they are going to have to be a bit less stringent.

Right, which is why I'm guessing 12 Y might be enough for Hoshoryu. They did relax the extremely stringent approach they used post-Futahaguro, with the last 3 promotions (Kakuryu, Kisenosato, Terunofuji) not held to what seemed like an absolute YY requirement from ~1989 to ~2013.

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34 minutes ago, Rocks said:

True, but I think they are going to have to adjust things going forward. I think the era of a broad strong field are over. Even the best aren't going to be very consistent anymore it seems. 

These are statements that pull in opposite directions: It's easier to be a consistent champion in a narrow field.  A broadly strong field tends towards fewer outstanding records (or in a broadly weak field, too: strength between eras is hard to measure).    

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41 minutes ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

These are statements that pull in opposite directions: It's easier to be a consistent champion in a narrow field.  A broadly strong field tends towards fewer outstanding records (or in a broadly weak field, too: strength between eras is hard to measure).    

Perhaps I worded this poorly. My intent was to convey you have people running up and down the banzuke instead of people siting near the top in a position to make Yokozuna by the old standards. 

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8 hours ago, Reonito said:

True, though as amazing as he is, he's not getting younger.

Based on how Tamawashi has been doing this tournament, I’m not so sure you’re right about that.

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