Differing punishments for absences

[Kachikoshi 21]

For the first time this basho, I started playing in all nine daily Superbanzuke games. Some of the games I only joined in mid-basho and I found it interesting how some games punish missing a day much more than others. I've attempted to order them below from most to least punishing. I have no real point to this post other than that I thought someone might find it interesting.

1. Tipspiel punishes absences the most by far. Because W-L records are based on comparing your total score over the basho to the average of all players who participated, and even a poor showing on any given day is bound to net you at least some points, each day you miss translates to roughly 1.5 more loses than if you had played and performed in an average way. If you miss half the basho you're basically guaranteed to finish 0-15.
2. Sekitori-Toto is the most straightforward. Not playing a day nets you a loss-equivalent, and exactly half the players win/lose each day, so missing a day gets you an expected 0.5 more losses than if you had played. This is the most similar punishment to an absence in real-life Ozumo.
3. Turn the Tide is similar to Sekitori-Toto, except that in general fewer than half the players win on any given day, so even though missing a day gets you a guaranteed loss-equivalent, you had more than a 50% chance of losing anyway.
4. In Sumo Game if you don't send in picks your default lineup gets used. You'll probably lose but you have a reasonable chance to get lucky and win.
5. Sekitori-Quadumvirate delivers you an automatic loss-equivalent for not showing up, but because of the unique rule that you can only choose each rikishi once, an absence means you don't use up any of your pool of rikishi which makes the rest of the tournament easier.
6. Bench Sumo lets you fall back on a default lineup like in Sumo Game, but the nature of the game means you don't have very many choices to make each day and you wind up trotting out pretty much the same team every day regardless. Plus the "henka" feature which automatically moves rikishi involved in fusens means that not paying attention is punished even less.
7. In Chain Gang, assuming you made decent default picks, you're going to end up with someone pretty solid regardless of whether you study the particular day or not. This is less true the later it gets in the tournament, but most people are knocked out by then anyway.
8. With ISP, you're just picking the winner of one evenly-matched bout which is pretty much a coin toss anyway. So long as you have some kind of auto-entry formula set up your chances of winning are almost as good as anyone else's.
9. Finally Odd Sumo is the kindest to absent players. The nature of the game has you gambling points at unfavorable odds. The more you play the more points you should expect to lose. So long as you make the required number of bets, which can be done in as little as five days, you're actually rewarded for not playing.

As a relative newcomer to these wonderful games which have been running smoothly for decades, I don't expect anyone to care much about my opinion. But if I were to offer it anyway, I'd say that Tipspiel is too harsh on absent players while Odd Sumo is too generous, and that modest changes to how the games operate could fix this "problem."

Edited September 18 by Kachikoshi

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

Nice summary, I just want to add:

- Quoting the rules for Chain Gang: "There is a 5-time use limit per basho for using the default rikishi."

- Quoting the rules for ISP: "The auto-pick formula can be used for up to five (5) days during the basho, but not more than three (3) days in a row."

And no, Tipspiel won't ever be "fixed".

Edited September 18 by Jakusotsu

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

That reminds me: "generator picks" are allowed in Tipspiel, and they were used much more frequently a long time ago. You can simply post an unambiguous set of rules (like "east rikishi ordered by rank" for example) to be used for days you'll be absent.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

Bench Sumo lets you fall back on a default lineup like in Sumo Game, but the nature of the game means you don't have very many choices to make each day and you wind up trotting out pretty much the same team every day regardless.

This is far from truth.

[Kachikoshi 21]

27 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This is far from truth.

Well at least in comparison to Sumo Game. In Bench Sumo everyone has a Yokozuna, Ozeki, and Sekiwake and you basically want all three in your lineup every day. That just leaves two of the slots, and if you should auto pick someone who withdraws you’ll be saved by the henka feature, where if you did that in Sumo Game you’ll just get dinged with a missed pick day after day. But if anyone has hard numbers on the relative success of auto pickers in Sumo Game vs. Bench Sumo I’d love to see them.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, Kachikoshi said:

Well at least in comparison to Sumo Game. In Bench Sumo everyone has a Yokozuna, Ozeki, and Sekiwake and you basically want all three in your lineup every day. That just leaves two of the slots, and if you should auto pick someone who withdraws you’ll be saved by the henka feature, where if you did that in Sumo Game you’ll just get dinged with a missed pick day after day. But if anyone has hard numbers on the relative success of auto pickers in Sumo Game vs. Bench Sumo I’d love to see them.

I understand that your experience with the game is still limited, but droning lineups have enjoyed some success in lower Makushita only, and only in a "predictable" basho (with a strongly performing Y-O, not like this one). 

There is a reason pretty much nobody dares to use them in Juryo and above. 

Regarding Sumo Game: its nature allows the use of special anti-drone tactics that would be impossible in Bench; this makes drones even easier to defeat, I agree.

[Kachikoshi 21]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Nice summary, I just want to add:

- Quoting the rules for Chain Gang: "There is a 5-time use limit per basho for using the default rikishi."

- Quoting the rules for ISP: "The auto-pick formula can be used for up to five (5) days during the basho, but not more than three (3) days in a row."

And no, Tipspiel won't ever be "fixed".

The five day limit barely even matters in Chain Gang, since most people are knocked out by then.

As for ISP and Tipspiel, let’s compare them to a real life sekitori. If he missed seven days, he would be expected to win about half of his remaining bouts and finish with four wins. In ISP, you would auto pick for five of the seven days and get about two wins, then get four wins from the days you participated, for a total of six. In Tipspiel, if you miss seven days (and don’t use the non-obvious generator feature), you’re going to finish with zero wins.

In the unlikely event there’s ever an appetite to amend the Tipspiel rules, here’s a suggestion: if you’re absent for a day, you get a “default score” equal to the average score for your group that day minus half the “step size” between each win threshold at the end of the tournament.

For example, if you miss day 6, and the average score for your group that day is 8 points, and then the step size at the end of the tournament for your group is 6 points (such that every 6 points would have earned you an extra win), then your default score for that day is 5 points. That might not seem like a big penalty but it’s equivalent to half a win, which would still make Tipspiel tied for the most punishing game on this list!

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

4 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

if you’re absent for a day, you get a “default score” equal to the average score for your group that day minus half the “step size” between each win threshold at the end of the tournament.

This could be easily abused in some situations. 
Also, giving players guaranteed points seems wrong somehow. It's different from an auto-pick that was lucky enough to win.

[Ganzohnesushi 506]

15 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

In the unlikely event there’s ever an appetite to amend the Tipspiel rules, here’s a suggestion: if you’re absent for a day, you get a “default score” equal to the average score for your group that day minus half the “step size” between each win threshold at the end of the tournament.

Nice attempt to avoid a 0 in Tipspiel. So players picking only losers would receive well deserved 0 points on that day while those who are absent will earn a default score > 0 ? You must be joking. Sorry to be a bit harsh here, but this is complete rubbish.

Ganzohnesushi

[Ganzohnesushi 506]

@Kachikoshi

While you were summarizing the daily games you should have a look on the pre-basho games also. In some of these games you may ask for a kosho while the Japanese games POG, OBG and NorizoCup don't use this kosho rule. If you're not playing it is 0-0-15 and you will be demoted. We all have to live with these rules and I don't think any player ever has complained about it.

Ganzohnesushi

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

While you were summarizing the daily games you should have a look on the pre-basho games also. In some of these games you may ask for a kosho while the Japanese games POG, OBG and NorizoCup don't use this kosho rule.

Also, comparing the ways different games deal with fusen might be interesting.

[Kachikoshi 21]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I understand that your experience with the game is still limited, but droning lineups have enjoyed some success in lower Makushita only, and only in a "predictable" basho (with a strongly performing Y-O, not like this one). 

There is a reason pretty much nobody dares to use them in Juryo and above. 

Regarding Sumo Game: its nature allows the use of special anti-drone tactics that would be impossible in Bench; this makes drones even easier to defeat, I agree.

The fact that you’re even entertaining droning as a reasonable strategy at any level of Bench shows how light the absence punishment is, relatively speaking. In a game like Quadumvirate or Turn the Tide “droning” isn’t even a thing and absences are treated as guaranteed losses. I’d estimate the negative effect on your record of missing one day of Tipspiel is about equal to droning six days of Bench.

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This could be easily abused in some situations. 
Also, giving players guaranteed points seems wrong somehow. It's different from an auto-pick that was lucky enough to win.

Giving guaranteed points definitely feels wrong, I agree with you there. But the default score is set at exactly the point that if you did it every day you would wind up 0-15; it’s not a very good score. I’d estimate the win penalty for autopicking for a day in Tipspiel is about half the penalty of my “default score” proposal.

59 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Nice attempt to avoid a 0 in Tipspiel. So players picking only losers would receive well deserved 0 points on that day while those who are absent will earn a default score > 0 ? You must be joking. Sorry to be a bit harsh here, but this is complete rubbish.

Ganzohnesushi

You could make the same argument about the kosho system. If I try my best at Tipspiel  and do badly I’ll get demoted way down the banzuke. But if I don’t try at all and just declare myself kosho I get complete rank protection. No penalty whatsoever!

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

You could make the same argument about the kosho system. If I try my best at Tipspiel  and do badly I’ll get demoted way down the banzuke. But if I don’t try at all and just declare myself kosho I get complete rank protection. No penalty whatsoever!

I am not a big fan of kosho in general (in games or IRL sumo). But all it does is freeze your banzuke rank for a basho. On the other hand, your Tipspiel proposal can actually help a player win by not playing.

The most obvious example: it's day 15, I am leading the yusho race with a 10 point margin. If I play, there is a real risk of having a terrible day (don't forget how volatile this game is) and missing the mark; however, if I skip it, I will likely get the default 5-6 points and guarantee the yusho. You see where it leads?

Any game that rewards you for not playing it is not a well designed game. Yes, Odd Sumo exists; but even there, you have to spend a minimum amount of ante to qualify (which means a minimum of 5 days played).

Edited September 19 by Bunbukuchagama

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

13 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

I’d estimate the negative effect on your record of missing one day of Tipspiel is about equal to droning six days of Bench.

This seems exaggerated to me (although I haven't checked the math to prove it).

[Kachikoshi 21]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I am not a big fan of kosho in general (in games or IRL sumo). But all it does is freeze your banzuke rank for a basho. On the other hand, your Tipspiel proposal can actually help a player win by not playing.

The most obvious example: it's day 15, I am leading the yusho race with a 10 point margine. If I play, there is a real risk of having a terrible day (don't forget how volatile this game is) and missing the mark; however, if I skip it, I will likely get the default 5-6 points and guarantee the yusho. You see where it leads?

The obvious solution to this problem is that default points only count in calculating your final record, not in determining who wins the yusho. You could go even farther and add a rule that default points can only help get you to a 7-8 record but not beyond that, to eliminate any possibility of abusing them to ensure a kachikoshi.

[Kachikoshi 21]

14 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This seems exaggerated to me (although I haven't checked the math to prove it).

Actually I took a closer look and I believe I’ve understated the difference. In the Tipspiel Nagoya basho group 1, the average daily score per participating player was 7.764. So if you missed an average day you would be expected to lose out on 7.764 points. But you only needed 3.385 points to get an extra win, so missing a day actually would cost you about 2.3 wins (I originally estimated 1.5). If we estimate that droning in Bench gives you a 25% chance to win (compared to 50% if you played properly) then droning for a day penalizes you 0.25 wins, or about a ninth of the Tipspiel penalty.

To be fair I believe this example presents an especially big penalty in Tipspiel and that other groups/bashos penalize absences less. So 6:1 is probably about right.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

21 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

The obvious solution to this problem is that default points only count in calculating your final record, not in determining who wins the yusho. You could go even farther and add a rule that default points can only help get you to a 7-8 record but not beyond that, to eliminate any possibility of abusing them to ensure a kachikoshi.

What's the point then? To turn your potential 5-10 record into a 7-8 one? 

Any system requiring extensive safeguards against abusing it will look unattractive.

And that's why kosho in ozumo was abolished (among other things).

Edited September 19 by Bunbukuchagama

[Ganzohnesushi 506]

5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

And no, Tipspiel won't ever be "fixed". 

Can we stop that discussion here and simply accept what Jakusotsu mentioned already a couple of hours before? Thx.

Ganzohnesushi 

[Asashosakari 18,783]

Yeah, there's nothing to fix here in general. Don't play games whose participation requirements aren't compatible with your real-life circumstances, it's that simple. There are more than enough to choose from to make anybody happy.

[Gernobono 455]

9 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

. I have no real point to this post other than that I thought someone might find it interesting.

interesting point of view, i never saw discussed earlier

9 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

how the games operate could fix this "problem."

that was not your intention starting the thread 

[Andonishiki 168]

completely agree.

These are wonderful games and for MANY of us, life wouldnt be the same without them.

Every game is unique, study the rules, act accordingly, no need to question or fix them. Play if you accept them, stay away if you don't. Challenge yourself - try to get 7 kk out of 9 games.. (i consider surviving four days in cg a kk)

- try to earn SB points in 7 out of 9 daily games

- try to reach sanyaku in 3 out of 9 daily games

- try to win each game once within ten years

- try not to miss a day in all games for three years

... there's countless more challenges, you can set for yourself.... it's the best part of the day when i do the analysis at 18:05 Tokyo time and count how many if my 'troops' score a victory on that specific day...

new players welcome !

Let's give a BIG HAND for all you game creators, organizors, result reporters, commentators, gyoji, mono-ii-ists and supervisors !

you create LEGACY that will never be forgotten

Kofujinokami is amongst us

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

I fail to see the point why there should be more incentive to miss any days. That's not the sumo way.

[Kachikoshi 21]

19 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

that was not your intention starting the thread 

I assure you I did not start this thread to get into a prolonged discussion on potential minor changes to Tipspiel. I’m well aware that a game which hasn’t changed in decades, which concerns a sport which hasn’t changed in centuries, and run by people from the world’s most prolific user of the fax machine, is not going to be very open to reform.

 

[shimodahito 291]

This is an interesting discussion and analysis.   For the daily games, I always thought there was a disadvantage by which time zone a player lives in.  I"ve lived on three continents and working on picks either before work or after work were different.  In some places I was more likely to miss a deadline.  I don't want to use the word punishment, but it would be interesting to see which time zone produces the most successful players.

[Kajiyanosho 16]

This is a very interesting conversation. Different games have different rules, and it's true that some are more punishing than others in case of absence (or have no droning options). I think I've only missed a Tipspiel day and it happened (obviously) in a basho when I was doing quite well. It's annoying when I see rikishi absences affecting UDH or Hoshitori Or Paper in ways that aren't convenient to my placement at that time, but I accept it in the spirit of unpredictability and 'unfairness' that is sumo. 

Odd Sumo is the last game I play every day - I find it easier this way and it's also not too bad if I miss a day (sometimes I just can't decide). I play Tipspiel, Sumo Game and Bench first - they require the longest 'thinking' (and fun) and the decisions I make determine my choices in other games too. This makes it less likely for me to miss a day.

I wouldn't play if my circumstances wouldn't allow me to almost never miss a day. If unforeseeable circumstances make me miss one, they preoccupy me more than my (most time unimpressive) Tipspiel ranking.

Here's a possible personal solution though: one could write a script that automatically selects and orders Tipspiel rikishi based on e.g. Odd Sumo, and automatically posts it in the forum!