Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024

[Reonito 1,335]

Placeholder to be updated after the Day 11 bouts.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

Looks like there are going to be some lucky losers in juryo. There are only 2 currently promotable records in makushita (Aonishiki and Wakaikari) with a maximum of 2 others. Three juryo men are demotable owing to absence. If Tochitaikai and Chiyomaru lose their last bouts then Asanoyama should still be occupying a juryo spot in November.

[Akinomaki 39,755]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Looks like there are going to be some lucky losers in juryo. There are only 2 currently promotable records in makushita (Aonishiki and Wakaikari) with a maximum of 2 others. Three juryo men are demotable owing to absence. If Tochitaikai and Chiyomaru lose their last bouts then Asanoyama should still be occupying a juryo spot in November.

They'll demote Asanoyama even for a fifth, Nabatame with 4-3

[Chartorenji 235]

2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Looks like there are going to be some lucky losers in juryo. There are only 2 currently promotable records in makushita (Aonishiki and Wakaikari) with a maximum of 2 others. Three juryo men are demotable owing to absence. If Tochitaikai and Chiyomaru lose their last bouts then Asanoyama should still be occupying a juryo spot in November.

haven't watched in the past year regularly, but it's crazy how quickly Aonishiki has moved up. Dudes still 20 as well. 

[Sakura 1,472]

If Takakeisho retires before the banzuke creation, that also opens a spot in Juryo.

[Koorifuu 886]

 

11 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Looks like there are going to be some lucky losers in juryo. There are only 2 currently promotable records in makushita (Aonishiki and Wakaikari) with a maximum of 2 others. Three juryo men are demotable owing to absence. If Tochitaikai and Chiyomaru lose their last bouts then Asanoyama should still be occupying a juryo spot in November.

I feel like Wakaikari and Chiyomaru swapped places in that analysis?

Quick analysis on juryo & people's situation on nominal safety

J3w Asanoyama: toast (would be safe if he came back and won twice, not happening though)
J9w Myogiryu: toast
J13w Chiyosakae: toast
J12w Kiryuko: already toast by the numbers
J13e Aoiyama: needs 4 wins out of 4
J14w Oshoumi: needs 3 wins out of 4
J9e Daishoho: needs 1 win out of 4
J3e Daiamami: needs 1 win out of 4
S2w Takakeisho: pending confirmation

Realistically...
Daishoho and Daiamami are already safe.
Kiryuko is neck deep in doodoo and really needs to win out + makushita contenders failing badly.
Aoiyama and Oshoumi probably only need 2 and 1 wins respectively, despite the poor numbers.

Still a good chance we'll need 7 fillers.

[Reonito 1,335]

Day 11

Juryo demotion queue: Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Kiryuko (5), Aoiyama (4), Oshoumi (3), Asanoyama (2), Daishoho (1). Wins needed for safety in parantheses; everyone else is already safe by my math. Kiryuko is already demotable, but could be passed by others and could certainly still stay with 4 more wins, though I'm not sure if he could stay with 3. I haven't bolded Asanoyama yet given the uncertainty in the number of promotees. As @Sakura notes above, any sekitori retirements (outside the group above) before the banzuke meeting would open up additional slots.

Makushita promotion queue: Tochitaikai with a win, {Aonishiki, Wakaikari with a win, Chiyomaru}, {Nabatame with a win, Kototebakari, Daishomaru with a win}. The first curly bracket trio is ahead of the second curly bracket trio. The best-placed 6-0 rikishi, Ms16e Hatsuyama, is heartbreakingly one rung away from being eligible for promotion with a yusho. Seven rikishi are still in it with a chance, depending on how everything plays out at the division boundary down the stretch. Things kick off tomorrow with Chiyomaru vs. Oshoumi; the rest of the contenders will have to wait until at least Day 13.

Edited September 18 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Daiamami: needs 1 win out of 4

He's already safe by my math: even a 3-12 record at J5e computes to J14e.

[Reonito 1,335]

Day 11

Makuuchi demotion queue: Kagayaki (4), Shirokuma (3), Nishikifuji (3), Kitanowaka (2), Onokatsu (2), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1).

Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate (2), Shishi (2), Takerufuji (3). I am not listing Shimazuumi since he pulled out. Looks like at most 4 exchanges, and possibly some lucky survivors once again.

[Reonito 1,335]

Day 11

San'yaku vacation queue: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (1?), Hiradoumi (2), Daieisho (2). It's looking increasingly likely that Kirishima will be the only holdover of the Sekiwake quartet, so if both Komusubi get kachi-koshi, whichever one of them has the better record will move up (with Daieisho holding the tiebreaker, perhaps underscoring the unfairness of not re-ordering them based on July records). So in all likelihood, one Komusubi slot will come open.

San'yaku promotion queue: Oho, Wakamotoharu, Shodai, Ura, Wakatakakage. This list is not exhaustive, but these are the leading contenders.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Asanoyama (2)

I don't think Asanoyama is in a position to win 2 bouts. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

9 hours ago, Sakura said:

If Takakeisho retires before the banzuke creation, that also opens a spot in Juryo.

And in Makuuchi too (it's the same spot moving up, but still).

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Kiryuko (5)

Actually, Kiryuko getting 5 wins in 4 days would be even more glorious than Asanoyama coming back and winning twice on one leg. 

[Reonito 1,335]

4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Actually, Kiryuko getting 5 wins in 4 days would be even more glorious than Asanoyama coming back and winning twice on one leg. 

The number is what they mathematically need for safety. The impossibility of reaching the target doesn't necessarily mean demotion...I guess I could use (X) instead as failed to reach target...bold means going down for sure, barring craziness like Nishikifuji last time out.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Just now, Reonito said:

bold means going down for sure, barring craziness like Nishikifuji last time out.

"For sure" doesn't exist yet except when an obvious demotee is already paired with no less obvious promotee. 

I think most people understand that we are dealing exclusively with "by the numbers" promotions and demotions at this point.

[Old Shatterhand is dead 29]

Onosato’s hair is still not long enough to make an oichomage. If he promoted ozeki for Kyushu would he be the first ozeki without oichomage?

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Kiryuko could theoretically hang on with a 6-9 if there are not that many promotees

[Koorifuu 886]

Tsurugisho's return means there are no mandatory cross division bouts between juryo and makushita tomorrow.

[RabidJohn 1,663]

15 hours ago, Old Shatterhand is dead said:

Onosato’s hair is still not long enough to make an oichomage. If he promoted ozeki for Kyushu would he be the first ozeki without oichomage?

It has been mentioned elsewhere.
tl;dr Akinomaki and I both think that he would.

[Reonito 1,335]

Day 12

Juryo demotion queue: Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Kiryuko (X), Aoiyama (3), Oshoumi (3), Asanoyama (X), Daishoho (1). Wins needed for safety in parantheses; bold = certain demotion; X = can't reach numerical safety target but could still luck out.

Makushita promotion queue: Tochitaikai with a win, {Chiyomaru, Aonishiki, Wakaikari with a win}, {Nabatame with a win, Kototebakari, Daishomaru with a win}. The only change here is Chiyomaru's win over Oshoumi; he can finish no worse than 3rd in the promotion queue so I've bolded him. No relevant action on Day 13, so I guess they'll look at the demotion contenders tomorrow and set up the weekend bouts accordingly.

[Reonito 1,335]

Day 12

Makuuchi demotion queue: Kagayaki (X), Shirokuma (3), Kitanowaka (2), Onokatsu (2), Nishikifuji (2), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1).

Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate (1), Shishi (2), Takerufuji (2).

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

12 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Kiryuko could theoretically hang on with a 6-9 if there are not that many promotees

I think that falling one short of mathematical safety should be enough this time.

[Reonito 1,335]

Day 12

San'yaku vacation queue: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (1?), Hiradoumi (2), Daieisho (1).

San'yaku promotion queue: Oho, Wakamotoharu, Shodai, Ura, Wakatakakage. This list is not exhaustive, but these are the leading contenders.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I think that falling one short of mathematical safety should be enough this time.

Yeah, though winning his last 3 will be a tall order.

[lackmaker 431]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Day 12

San'yaku vacation queue: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (1?), Hiradoumi (2), Daieisho (1).

San'yaku promotion queue: Oho, Wakamotoharu, Shodai, Ura, Wakatakakage. This list is not exhaustive, but these are the leading contenders.

In what way is Onosato vacating sanyaku? Do you mean promotion?