I am the Yokozuna 188 Posted September 22 Or they could only promote four rikishis - Tochitaikai, Wakaikari, Chiyomaru and Aonishiki and demote only Oshomi, Chiyosakae and Miyogiryu. We have seen crazier ideas and their implementations across the years. More importantly, other than the Ukrainian no one gives me the belief they could have a lasting impact accross the salaried ranks. Hopefully I would be more than wrong on that assessment . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryafuji 807 Posted September 22 Aoiyama staying with a 5-10 from J13 would certainly be a real "luck of the banzuke" scenario. Maybe they will be kind to the veteran. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Christopher 15 Posted September 22 Did I miss it? Or is there really no discussion here about the fact that Onosato is the most likely candidate since Terunofuji to become a yokozuna? Probably not this year, but next year. I think that's striking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 1 hour ago, Christopher said: Or is there really no discussion here about the fact that Onosato is the most likely candidate since Terunofuji to become a yokozuna? If there were to be discussion, it wouldn't be in this thread. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 (edited) My guess for Juryo: Asakoryu(11-4 J8e) J1 Kinbozan(4-11 M12w) Kagayaki(3-12 M11w) J2 Hakuoho(8-7 J5w) Shirokuma(4-9 M16e) J3 Tamashoho(6-9 J3e) Kayo(11-4 J14e) J4 Shimanoumi(6-9 J4e) Shimazuumi(6-5 J4w) J5 Tomokaze(9-6 J11e) Tohakuryu(8-7 J10e) J6 Shiden(7-8 J6w) Hidenoumi(6-9 J6e) J7 Tsurugisho(6-8 J7e) Mitoryu(6-7 J7w) J8 Hakuyozan(7-8 J8w) Daiamami(4-11 J5e) J9 Daishoho(6-9 J9e) Onosho(1-4 J1w) J10 Fujiseiun(7-8 J10w) Tochitaikai(4-3 Ms1e) J11 Aonishiki(6-1 Ms4w) Daiseizan(7-8 J12e) J12 Chiyomaru(5-2 Ms3w) Wakaikari(4-3 Ms2w) J13 Kototebakari(5-2 Ms5w) Nabatame(4-3 Ms4e) J14 Oshoumi(6-9 J14w) Asanoyama(0-0 J3w) Judging from the Onosho/Nishikifuji precedent, the last spot would be Oshoumi's. I prefer to think that's really about Isegahama having outsize influence, and Naruto is not going to have any say here, so I would prefer to put Asanoyama there. Aoiyama certainly is a possibility for the last spot if they really think they need to demote Asanoyama and Oshoumi, but given the precedent set by Nishikifuji, I don't know why they would suddenly think they "need" to demote Oshoumi. If it's about losing their last match, Aoiyama did too. Aoiyama should be more likely to be demoted by the numbers. Note that there are tons of 6-win rikishi, and basically all of them have only 1 slot demotions, and there was little else that could be done; the promotions for the few KK rikishi not going to Makuuchi are just big enough to allow those one-slot demotions and no demotion for 7-8. Onosho was slotted when there was no one left but Makushita rikishi and MKs below that spot (plus Asanoyama), and no Makushita rikishi really has a record that suggests they should be higher than whoever stays in Juryo other than whoever gets the last spot. Edited September 22 by Gurowake 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 4 minutes ago, Gurowake said: Judging from the Onosho/Nishikifuji precedent, the last spot would be Oshoumi's. I prefer to think that's really about Sadogatake having outsize influence, and Naruto is not going to have any say here, so I would prefer to put Asanoyama there. I actually would prefer to put the 7-0 Ms16e there, but they seem dead set on having a line between Ms15 and Ms16 for 7-0 promotions, much like the line for normal promotions at Ms5. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 4 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said: Or they could only promote four rikishis - Tochitaikai, Wakaikari, Chiyomaru and Aonishiki and demote only Oshomi, Chiyosakae and Miyogiryu. We have seen crazier ideas and their implementations across the years. More importantly, other than the Ukrainian no one gives me the belief they could have a lasting impact accross the salaried ranks. Hopefully I would be more than wrong on that assessment . You don't think that someone making Juryo as a teenager after 11 basho in Ozumo is going to make a lasting impact as a sekitori? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,835 Posted September 22 I found the notion that they might demote Oshoumi but not Kiryuko even stranger than that... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 On 21/09/2024 at 09:53, Gurowake said: Wakamotoharu should be good for at least one of the open Komusubi slots; while he can be passed on the numbers by both Shodai and Wakatakakage, it's only minimally so for the latter, and his joi schedule should get him the nod there. There's another open spot now that Hiradoumi has reached MK. It will go to Shodai if he wins, and if he loses it definitely will go to his opponent Oho if Wakatakakage loses. If the latter wins, I think it's more up in the air. Oho with 9 wins is one rank worse by the numbers than Wakamotoharu with 10, plus Oho has no sanyaku experience, so I don't think it's as easy of a call to give it to the rikishi with the joi schedule as with the previous situation. I'd like to think it would go to Oho, but in the past they've shown some serious bias against those who would make their debut in sanyaku. I somehow completely overlooked the fact that even if Shodai lost (which he did), he would have better rank/record numbers than Oho. Regardless, Wakatakakage won and is likely to get the spot based solely on the numbers, but Shodai's mostly full sanyaku schedule (missed Kirishima, but so did Wakamotoharu) plus a reasonable number of joi maegashira (though having several matches outside the joi) could be enough to bridge the gap of the one rank difference in numbers, as Wakatakakage's schedule was much weaker. Oho probably won't get it as there are rikishi who have sanyaku experience who are reasonable to put there instead of someone making their debut, but his full joi schedule (other than being a roadblock for Nishikigi) could be a deciding factor for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
I am the Yokozuna 188 Posted September 22 I do not play guess the banzuke games and I do not profess any knowledge how it is being decided. It is definitely very intriguing but this time around it would be a head scratcher even for non gamers as I am curious as to what the end result would be. my post was to say that they might promote not seven but four. Just an idea. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,835 Posted September 22 Made the "last spot in juryo" question into a poll. I'm voting for Kaisho. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sue 483 Posted September 22 There's such a huge bounty of available Juryo and Makuuchi slots that it reminds me of that scene in It's A Wonderful Life: "Get me -- I'm handing out wings!" I'm glad that I don't play GTB! (And that's assuming that no one else retires in the next day or two.) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tigerboy1966 1,385 Posted September 22 6 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said: 6 hours ago, Adz_517 said: I see 7 slots opening up in Juryo this time with only 6 promotable records- I wonder what they will come up with. Will Kaisho get lucky from Ms6? Or the crazy option and go for Hatsuyama who technically was only half a rank away from certain promotion? Fascinating. They will keep Oshoumi or Aoiyama. I am thinking that Oshoumi will get the same treatment that Nishikifuji did one division up and one basho ago. Phenomenal banzuke luck for a 6-9 on the lowest rung on the ladder. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Christopher 15 Posted September 22 31 minutes ago, Gurowake said: 1 hour ago, Gurowake said: If there were to be discussion, it wouldn't be in this thread. I thought that if it was about the promotion to Yokozuna, this would be the right thread. And if Onosato wins the next yusho, then he would be a yokozuna. But what do I know... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yamanashi 3,735 Posted September 22 2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said: I am thinking that Oshoumi will get the same treatment that Nishikifuji did one division up and one basho ago. Phenomenal banzuke luck for a 6-9 on the lowest rung on the ladder. Nishikifuji << Isegahama Oshoumi << Naruto Nah. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 8 minutes ago, Christopher said: I thought that if it was about the promotion to Yokozuna, this would be the right thread. And if Onosato wins the next yusho, then he would be a yokozuna. But what do I know... 8 minutes ago, Christopher said: This is about the Promotions after the Aki basho. If you want to discuss a potential promotion to Yokozuna, which will definitely not happen after Kyushu basho because it requires at least two basho at Ozeki, i suggest starting a thread in Ozumo Discussions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 22 12 minutes ago, Christopher said: But what do I know I'm sorry if either of my previous posts sounded harsh. You're obviously new here, so I'm trying to be helpful and point you in the right direction. This forum really likes segregating discussions into specific threads. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
warusawa 3 Posted September 22 So Shishi to Makuuchi for sure? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Octofuji 328 Posted September 22 4 hours ago, Christopher said: Did I miss it? Or is there really no discussion here about the fact that Onosato is the most likely candidate since Terunofuji to become a yokozuna? Probably not this year, but next year. I think that's striking. There was this post from Oskanohana in the main basho thread Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RabidJohn 1,667 Posted September 22 4 hours ago, Christopher said: Did I miss it? Or is there really no discussion here about the fact that Onosato is the most likely candidate since Terunofuji to become a yokozuna? Probably not this year, but next year. I think that's striking. The very earliest he can get a rope is after Hatsu 25, and you can safely bet that there will be a thread about it if he looks like pulling it off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tigerboy1966 1,385 Posted September 22 Looks to me like the Onami brothers take the two vacant komusubi slots. Bad luck for Shodai and Osho who had promotable records. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,340 Posted September 22 1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said: I am thinking that Oshoumi will get the same treatment that Nishikifuji did one division up and one basho ago. Phenomenal banzuke luck for a 6-9 on the lowest rung on the ladder. I mean, they heard from the Japanese media and fans how outrageous a decision that was, maybe the powers that be will instruct the committee not to do that again. As @Asashosakari aptly put it, decisions like that risk crossing over from having some discretion to ignoring the results of the basho, when the main purpose of holding one is supposed to be to provide the basis for the next banzuke. Here's hoping, anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,340 Posted September 22 41 minutes ago, warusawa said: So Shishi to Makuuchi for sure? yes 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tigerboy1966 1,385 Posted September 22 3 minutes ago, Reonito said: 44 minutes ago, warusawa said: So Shishi to Makuuchi for sure? yes Not even close. He will be ahead of the likes of the likes of Asakoryu and Bushozan who also look likely to take/hold makuuchi slots. Must be a bit itchy having their mawashi stuffed with four-leafed clovers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,340 Posted September 22 Final Results Sekiwake/Komusubi openings: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (via promotion), Hiradoumi. We should be looking at Kirishima and Daieisho at Sekiwake, and two new Komusubi. Wakamotoharu has one K slot locked down. The second one should go to his brother (12-3 at M7e) , although a case can be made for Shodai (10-5 at M4e) and Oho (9-6 at M2w). See @Gurowake's analysis above. Makuuchi openings: Takakeisho, Shirokuma, Kagayaki, Kitanowaka (X), Kinbozan (X), Bushozan (X). Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate, Shishi, Takerufuji (O), Asakoryu (X). That's six demotion candidates and at most five Juryo men to potentially replace them (Hakuoho is not coming up with an 8-7 from J5w). I think Takerufuji trades places with Kitanowaka and they call it a day. I suppose they could keep Kitanowaka and drop Kinbozan instead, though higher rank argues in his favor, or drop both of them and bring up Asakoryu, which I think would have been more likely if that didn't mean demoting one M12 with 4 wins and keeping the other. Juryo openings: Takakeisho, Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Kiryuko (X), Asanoyama (X), Aoiyama (X), Oshoumi (X). Makushita promotion queue: Tochitaikai, Aonishiki, Chiyomaru, Wakaikari, Nabatame, Kototebakari, Hatsuyama (?), Kamito (??), Kaisho (???). I am not sure what the exact pecking order is among the six kachi-koshi men in the promotion zone, but it doesn't really matter—they should all be up. But with seven openings and a maximum of six conventional promotions, the last spot is tricky. @Asashosakari has a poll upthread, which features Britney Spears in the place of Kamito, which, unless I missed some big celebrity news, tells us what he thinks of the latter's chances We'll get to satisfy our curiosity regarding who's going up in a couple of days, but if it's just the six (or fewer), we won't know whom they've opted to save until banzuke day. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites