Reonito 1,341 Posted September 19 2 minutes ago, lackmaker said: In what way is Onosato vacating sanyaku? Do you mean promotion? exactly, that's why it's not a "demotion queue" (we often use san'yaku as shorthand for K/S, though technically it does include the higher ranks as well) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,931 Posted September 19 1 hour ago, lackmaker said: In what way is Onosato vacating sanyaku? Modern Japanese usage is that "sanyaku" only means Komusubi and Sekiwake, even if it didn't originally. Anything translated into English from Japanese needs to take this into account, and it leads some English speakers to use it with that meaning even in English. I think it's generally better to use "sanyaku" to mean the same thing as what Japanese would say as "sanyaku and up", but Japanese has no problem with that longer version in the times that it's needed. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,341 Posted September 19 3 minutes ago, Gurowake said: Modern Japanese usage is that "sanyaku" only means Komusubi and Sekiwake, even if it didn't originally. Anything translated into English from Japanese needs to take this into account, and it leads some English speakers to use it with that meaning even in English. I think it's generally better to use "sanyaku" to mean the same thing as what Japanese would say as "sanyaku and up", but Japanese has no problem with that longer version in the times that it's needed. So is there a better shorthand for K/S than always spelling it out? I've used "junior sanyaku" sometimes, which feels a little clunky and I'm not sure people know what it refers to... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Oskanohana 227 Posted September 20 53 minutes ago, Reonito said: So is there a better shorthand for K/S than always spelling it out? I've used "junior sanyaku" sometimes, which feels a little clunky and I'm not sure people know what it refers to... You can try using "S/K" for shorthand. I'm a sticker for the correct order. If they're saving Tochitaikai for an exchange bout, maybe they can pair him against Aoiyama to guarantee the Kasugano sekitori streak going on. I'm sure nobody will notice, it's not like he's called Tochiaoiyama. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,837 Posted September 20 (edited) 5 hours ago, Reonito said: Makushita promotion queue: Tochitaikai with a win, {Chiyomaru, Aonishiki, Wakaikari with a win}, {Nabatame with a win, Kototebakari, Daishomaru with a win}. The only change here is Chiyomaru's win over Oshoumi; he can finish no worse than 3rd in the promotion queue so I've bolded him. No relevant action on Day 13, so I guess they'll look at the demotion contenders tomorrow and set up the weekend bouts accordingly. FWIW, none of the 6 joi rikishi with 3-3 or better are on the Day 14/15 makushita schedules for the moment. Aonishiki and Kototebakari will definitely make juryo appearances (no other opponents left now), the four 3-3's miraculously could still be paired up into exactly one set of matches (Tochitaikai-Nabatame, Wakaikari-Daishomaru) if none or only two of them are needed for juryo. 17 hours ago, WAKATAKE said: Kiryuko could theoretically hang on with a 6-9 if there are not that many promotees After what they did in makuuchi last time, I wouldn't even rule out that 5-10 might be enough (likewise 6-9 for Oshoumi), especially if Takakeisho retires. It would be ahead of Asanoyama's 0-0-15 by the numbers, at the very least, and they've not shown much inclination to go against that lately. Edited September 20 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sue 483 Posted September 20 41 minutes ago, Oskanohana said: You can try using "S/K" for shorthand. I'm a sticker for the correct order. Also, "K/S" means something very different in fanfic circles.... 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akinomaki 39,901 Posted September 20 (edited) Kagayaki and Shirokuma will go down, Chiyoshoma and Tokihayate will go up - no double promotion Aonishiki/Shishi, unless Shishi wins 2 more and Kitanowaka loses 2 (1) more, or Nishikifuji loses 2 and the shimpan think that 2 times is too much luck - and Takerufuji has to lose one more. Edited September 20 by Akinomaki Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 691 Posted September 20 19 minutes ago, Akinomaki said: Kagayaki and Shirokuma will go down, Chiyoshoma and Tokihayate will go up - no double promotion Aonishiki/Shishi, unless Shishi wins 2 more and Kitanowaka loses 2 (1) more, or Nishikifuji loses 2 and the shimpan think that 2 times is too much luck - and Takerufuji has to lose one more. Kitanowaka is already demotable by the numbers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akinomaki 39,901 Posted September 20 4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said: Kitanowaka is already demotable by the numbers. In this world, only for one who absolutely has to be promoted Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 691 Posted September 20 (edited) Takakeisho's intai just made things easier for Shishi and Takerufuji. It also means Aonishiki is through no matter what. Edited September 20 by Bunbukuchagama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Koorifuu 886 Posted September 20 (edited) Day 14: J12w Kiryuko 4-9 x ms4e Nabatame 3-3 J13e Aoiyama 5-8 x ms4w Aonishiki 5-1 J14w Oshoumi 5-8 x ms5e Daishomaru 3-3 Saved for Day 15: Ms1e Tochitaikai 3-3 Ms2w Wakaikari 3-3 Those two have faced each other (on a controversial no-matta affair, no less) so they're definitely facing juryo opposition. There's also Ms5w Kototebakari 4-2, but he's more likely to be out of contention regardless and have a regular makushita bout. Although he'd be a good candidate at 5-2, considering how depleted juryo will be. Edited September 20 by Koorifuu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,341 Posted September 20 (edited) Day 13 Sekiwake/Komusubi openings: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato assuming he's promoted, Hiradoumi unless his wins his last two. We should be looking at Kirishima and Daieisho at Sekiwake, and either one or two new Komusubi. By beating Oho, Wakamotoharu took the lead in the race for the first open spot, with Oho, Shodai, Ura, and Wakatakakage still in contention. Makuuchi openings: Takakeisho, Kagayaki, Shirokuma, Kitanowaka (2), Nishikifuji (2), Onokatsu (1), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1). I've bolded Kagayaki, though I guess after what they did in July, we can't be certain a 3-12 from M11 would guarantee demotion And given that and the lack of promotion cases, incumbents could easily stay without hitting the numerical safety targets. Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate, Takerufuji (1), Shishi (2), Asakoryu (3). Shishi has a good shot of going up even with one more win. I've left J8e Asakoryu on the list in case he wins out to go 11-4 (just short of being promotable by the numbers) and they decide to be a little less lenient with the incumbents. Juryo openings: Takakeisho, Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Oshoumi (X), Kiryuko (X), Asanoyama (X), Aoiyama (2), Daishoho (1). Three definite openings, and only 3 kachi-koshi in the Makushita promotion zone so far, though four more can get there over the weekend. In any case, J9e Daishoho is almost certainly safe even if he loses twice and drops to 4-11. Makushita promotion queue: Chiyomaru, Tochitaikai with a win, Wakaikari with a win, Aonishiki, Nabatame with a win, Daishomaru with a win, Kototebakari. I'm being conservative with the bolding here, but I don't think they'll keep Asanoyama over Aonishiki even if the latter loses, so Aonishiki is very likely going up, and he can make certain by beating Aoiyama tomorrow. Daishomaru and Nabatame would be out of the running with losses to Oshoumi and Kiryuko, respectively, but even if they win, they'll have to wait to see what happens on Day 15, when (I presume) Tochitaikai, Wakaikari, and Kototebakari take their cracks at the 3 most endangered active incumbents. Edited September 20 by Reonito 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Oskanohana 227 Posted September 20 As far as Asanoyama staying on juryo, I think they'd promote anybody, even a mediocre record below the Ms5 line if they had to. The Onosho demotion last basho showed where they draw those lines. By the way, very rude of Shimanoumi to be this high on the banzuke and doing fine for himself given the astounding non-demotions we're going to probably see. 5 hours ago, Koorifuu said: Saved for Day 15: Ms1e Tochitaikai 3-3 Ms2w Wakaikari 3-3 Those two have faced each other (on a controversial no-matta affair, no less) so they're definitely facing juryo opposition. Tochitaikai-Aoiyama is still possible then. Come on, do it and break that taboo once and for all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kachikoshi 21 Posted September 20 19 minutes ago, Oskanohana said: As far as Asanoyama staying on juryo, I think they'd promote anybody, even a mediocre record below the Ms5 line if they had to. The Onosho demotion last basho showed where they draw those lines. Onosho didn’t go behind anyone he calculated ahead of by the numbers. The only “rule” that was broken was not giving Nishikifuji any demotion at all with a 6-9. They even still gave Onosho preference over some Juryo guys who calculated slightly ahead of him. So no, I think they would only go so far down Makushita before deciding to save Asanoyama. But I do think Aonishki, a 5-win Ms4 would get preference. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,341 Posted September 20 20 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said: Onosho didn’t go behind anyone he calculated ahead of by the numbers. The only “rule” that was broken was not giving Nishikifuji any demotion at all with a 6-9. They even still gave Onosho preference over some Juryo guys who calculated slightly ahead of him. So no, I think they would only go so far down Makushita before deciding to save Asanoyama. But I do think Aonishki, a 5-win Ms4 would get preference. This is probably our best comparable: the bottom completely fell out of Juryo, with 7 (!) demotions, and absent M3 Takanoiwa got to stay, after they promoted 4-3 Ms6 Enho and 5-2 Ms7 Takayoshitoshi. They seem to have drawn the line at promoting a 4-3 Ms7 or 5-2 Ms8 (but there may have been ... ahem ... special considerations for Takanoiwa given the reasons behind his absence). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Koorifuu 886 Posted September 20 16 minutes ago, Reonito said: (but there may have been ... ahem ... special considerations for Takanoiwa given the reasons behind his absence). I'm fairly sure that was the consensus back then, indeed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,931 Posted September 20 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Reonito said: This is probably our best comparable: the bottom completely fell out of Juryo, with 7 (!) demotions, and absent M3 Takanoiwa got to stay, after they promoted 4-3 Ms6 Enho and 5-2 Ms7 Takayoshitoshi. They seem to have drawn the line at promoting a 4-3 Ms7 or 5-2 Ms8 (but there may have been ... ahem ... special considerations for Takanoiwa given the reasons behind his absence). In that basho all the demotees were absolutely impossible to keep in Juryo by any stretch of the imagination. There's no situation among them that was like 5-10 J12 where he almost always gets demoted but theoretically could stay. Takanoiwa was obviously going to stay in that situation, so Asanoyama likely will this time. There's really only 2 Juryo rikishi who are on the same level as those 7 right now, though Kiryuko and Oshoumi could be headed that way. Edited September 20 by Gurowake Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,931 Posted September 20 As to Kototebakari: The 4-2s schedule so far near the top are: Ms7e Kotokuzan vs. Ms14e Kazekeno Ms7w Obara vs. Ms17w Kisano Unscheduled ahead of at least one of them so far are Ms5w Kototebakari, Ms6w Kaisho, and Ms12e Asahakuryu. It looks like it's Kaisho vs. Asahakuryu with Kototebakari in Juryo, as if we were looking for an opponent for Kaisho further down, he's already faced Kotokuzan and is do-beya with Obara. That leads precisely to the two matches already scheduled plus Kaisho vs. Asahakuryu waiting for Day 15. If Kototebakari vs. Kaisho had been planned, which would be the case if Kototebakari was not headed into Juryo, then Kotokuzan would be facing Asahakuryu. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,341 Posted September 20 17 minutes ago, Gurowake said: Takanoiwa was obviously going to stay in that situation, so Asanoyama likely will this time. Wait, are you saying Asanoyama is likely to stay, or am I misreading? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Oskanohana 227 Posted September 20 2 hours ago, Reonito said: Day 13 Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate, Takerufuji (1), Shishi (2), Asakoryu (3). Shishi has a good shot of going up even with one more win. I've left J8e Asakoryu on the list in case he wins out to go 11-4 (just short of being promotable by the numbers) and they decide to be a little less lenient with the incumbents. Wait, I have somebody better than that eventual 11-4 J8e. What about an 8-7 record from J4e? 38 minutes ago, Gurowake said: Takanoiwa was obviously going to stay in that situation, so Asanoyama likely will this time. 20 minutes ago, Reonito said: Wait, are you saying Asanoyama is likely to stay, or am I misreading? There's a non-zero chance that before the banzuke making session Asanoyama goes to a karaoke bar (or somewhere more colourful), Hoshoryu (for the sake of argument) hits him in the head with a bottle of sake and they use the Takanoiwa exception on Asanoyama to not demote him. And in case you're picky, they are still deciding if they expel Hoshoryu, so no extra banzuke space coming from his side. Except for this particular case, I don't see them keeping Asanoyama on juryo. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,341 Posted September 20 8 minutes ago, Oskanohana said: Wait, I have somebody better than that eventual 11-4 J8e. What about an 8-7 record from J4e? DO NOT speak that into existence. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,341 Posted September 20 Speaking of Hatsuyama, two retirements and an expansion of Makuuchi and Juryo did lead them to promote a 7-0 Ms16 once upon a time, along with a certain 6-1 Ms9... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Faustonowaka 112 Posted September 20 8 minutes ago, Reonito said: Speaking of Hatsuyama, two retirements and an expansion of Makuuchi and Juryo did lead them to promote a 7-0 Ms16 once upon a time, along with a certain 6-1 Ms9... Hakuoho was promoted from Ms15TD (which is techically equal to Ms16e) not so long ago, so I wouldn’t rule out a Hatsuyama promotion just yet 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bettega 427 Posted September 20 51 minutes ago, Faustonowaka said: Hakuoho was promoted from Ms15TD (which is techically equal to Ms16e) not so long ago, so I wouldn’t rule out a Hatsuyama promotion just yet The last time it ocurred was 2004: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=Ms16&form1_wins=7&form1_ms=on&form2_rank=J Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsuchinoninjin 1,249 Posted September 20 3 minutes ago, bettega said: The last time it ocurred was 2004: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=Ms16&form1_wins=7&form1_ms=on&form2_rank=J That’s a very extreme situation of 2 retirements and 2 juryo slots being added, so need to fill four voids plus the demotions Share this post Link to post Share on other sites