Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2024

[Asashosakari 18,698]

Welcome to the penultimate LKS of the year! Here's your ballot for Aki basho:

 1. Hoshoryu       16  [score?]
 2. Kotozakura     15  [score?]
 3. Daiseizan      10
 4. Wakaikari       9*
 5. Onosato         8* [score?]
 6. Hiradoumi       5  [score?]
 7. Kotoshoho       5
 8. Wakatakakage    5
 9. Onokatsu        5*
10. Aonishiki       5*
11. Higonoumi       5
12. Abi             4  [score?]
13. Fujiseiun       4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 8 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (6 'veterans' + 2 newcomers), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 21. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu W-L
 2. Kotozakura W-L
 3. Daiseizan KKMK
 4. Wakaikari KKMK
 5. Onosato W-L
 6. Hiradoumi W-L
 7. Kotoshoho KKMK
 8. Wakatakakage KKMK
 9. Onokatsu KKMK
10. Aonishiki KKMK
11. Higonoumi KKMK
12. Abi W-L
13. Fujiseiun KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

Edited September 5 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 3,890]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

Do you have information on the most KKs from debut?  The two sekitori I remember reading somewhere as having very long KK streaks, probably in relationship to Hakuho's, whose started when he was Ozeki, are Kitanoumi and Musashimaru, and they both had lower division MKs.  Ichinojo also made Sekiwake without a career MK and even got one KK there, but faltered the next tournament; Onosato's streak is already longer than his considering he took longer to get to Sekiwake.  There hasn't been anyone else recently that I'm aware of that's done that (make Sekiwake without an MK).  The record might be a lower division guy who put up a bunch of 4-3s starting from lower in the banzuke than Wakaikari started his current streak of minimal KKs.

[Athenayama 944]

 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 10-5
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[Fashiritētā 168]

 1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 10-5
 6. Hiradoumi 10-5
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 13

Edited September 5 by Fashiritētā

[Profomisakari 823]

 1. Hoshoryu                11
 2. Kotozakura            12
 3. Daiseizan                K K
 4. Wakaikari               MK
 5. Onosato                  12
 6. Hiradoumi              7
 7. Kotoshoho             KK
 8. Wakatakakage       KK
 9. Onokatsu                KK
10. Aonishiki               KK
11. Higonoumi            KK
12. Abi                          10
13. Fujiseiun                KK

TB 14

 

[Yarimotsu 517]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 10-5
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 6-9
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 13

[Hakuryuho 334]

 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 7-8
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[Holleshoryu 15]

1 hoshoryu 9-6

2 kotozakura 13-2

3 daiseizan kk

4 wakaikari kk

5 onosato 9-6

6 hiradoumi 8-7

7 kotoshoho kk

8 wakatakakage kk

9 onokatsu kk

10 aonishiki kk

11 higonoumi mk

12 abi 8-7

13 fujiseiun kk

tb 13

 

[WAKATAKE 2,624]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 13-2
 3. Daiseizan MK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato MK
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu MK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 12-3
13. Fujiseiun MK

TB 13

[Oskanohana 215]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Hiradoumi MK
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[Jejima 1,303]

1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 8-7
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho KK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 16

[ryafuji 806]

On 05/09/2024 at 15:36, Gurowake said:

Do you have information on the most KKs from debut?  The two sekitori I remember reading somewhere as having very long KK streaks, probably in relationship to Hakuho's, whose started when he was Ozeki, are Kitanoumi and Musashimaru, and they both had lower division MKs.  Ichinojo also made Sekiwake without a career MK and even got one KK there, but faltered the next tournament; Onosato's streak is already longer than his considering he took longer to get to Sekiwake.  There hasn't been anyone else recently that I'm aware of that's done that (make Sekiwake without an MK).  The record might be a lower division guy who put up a bunch of 4-3s starting from lower in the banzuke than Wakaikari started his current streak of minimal KKs.

Akebono's KK streak from sumo entry was a notable one - he made it all the way from jonokuchi to sekiwake before he finally had a makekoshi, a 7-8. That was the only losing record (discounting kyujo) in his career.

Edited September 7 by ryafuji

[ryafuji 806]

 1. Hoshoryu 12-3
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 13-2
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 15

Edited September 7 by ryafuji

[Sakura 1,471]

On 05/09/2024 at 13:04, Asashosakari said:

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 9-6
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 9-6
13. Fujiseiun MK

TB 14

-----

Good luck!

 

[Bunbukuchagama 683]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 9-6
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 13-2
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 6-9
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[chishafuwaku 469]

1. Hoshoryu               9
 2. Kotozakura          10
 3. Daiseizan                             MK
 4. Wakaikari                             MK
 5. Onosato               10
 6. Hiradoumi              9
 7. Kotoshoho                           MK
 8. Wakatakakage             KK
 9. Onokatsu                      KK
10. Aonishiki                      KK
11. Higonoumi                          MK
12. Abi                          8
13. Fujiseiun                       KK

TB 12

[Asashosakari 18,698]

10 Hoshoryu
10 Kotozakura
+ Daiseizan
+ Wakaikari
12 Onosato
9 Hiradoumi
- Kotoshoho
+ Wakatakakage
+ Onokatsu
+ Aonishiki
- Higonoumi
8 Abi
+ Fujiseiun

TB 13