Aki 2024 discussion (results)

[Dapeng 232]

26 minutes ago, Octofuji said:

Terunofuji https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=11927

He won the Yusho as Sekiwake, got promoted to Ozeki, and then won the next basho. He still had to wait until the following basho (where he went 14-1 losing to Hakuho) to get the rope.

I don't deny the reality of the feel though - hard to believe now that Takerufuji was (is?) even better than this guy.

I think three consecutive 15-0 yushos starting from komusubi may result in promotion to yokozuna.

Edited September 14 by Dapeng

[Ripe 70]

2 hours ago, Hausu said:

The feel is real!  Despite the rank difference, Onosato is two wins closer to the rope than Kotozakura.  A win this basho (ozeki promotion right?) and another next basho… well is there a precedence preventing Onosato’s Yokozuna promotion in such a scenario?

Two precedents actually: first is Futabayama and second is Terunofuji. Neither of them got promoted following back-to-back yushos when first of them was at Sekiwake.

[Benevolance 2,478]

Okay, this Onosato kid is good. I had (wrongly) thought that his early rise was because of 'new-guy luck' while everyone is figuring out who the new guy is, and his 9-6 last tournament was an expected regression towards the mean. But dang. Watching him win is fun. 

[dingo 1,160]

Ryuden is somewhat on a roll this basho. He's not doing anything overly special, just utilizing his strong yotsu skills to maximum benefit. That's exaclty what he did today as well against Kitanowaka, who had not much hope to resist once Ryuden got his grip.

Nishikigi steamrolled Onokatsu who really shouldn't have that much difficulties against lower makuuchi. I can't believe he'd be that much overwhelmed or awed by his opposition, so could be an injury?

Hokutofuji had a slow and not really promising start to the basho, but he seems to be adjusting well as the days go on. Today he managed to focus his pushing attack on Takarafuji to the right spot and got a pretty smooth win. He seemed quite satisfied himself too. Takarafuji however is slumping a bit, but with half of the basho still ahead he's got plenty of time to get his wins.

Although Kinbozan was being pushed back by Nishikifuji, he basically stumbled on his own to hand Nishikifuji the win. At this rate he has to start looking over his shoulder as juryo might be looming soon. If not this basho, then next.

Shirokuma seemingly has a big and strong body reminiscent of Takarafuji, but gets pushed out too easily. Might be that he's not too experienced in  positioning or balancing himself well to better use his weight or strength. If he gets that right, he can be a solid maegashira rikishi.

Takayasu keeps ploughing on, even though he seems to be at 50% power at best. I suppose he's desperate to stay in makuuchi, but as we've seen his back is not getting better even after 2 months break between basho. It's sad to see but perhaps this is the beginning of the end for him...

Tamawashi used his experience on Bushozan well. Bushozan on the other hand finds himself on the belly for the third time this basho. All his losses have been similar, but he's not managed to adjust and after a good start is now 4-3.

Oshoma repeats himself again and gets another pulldown win. I suppose rikishi will stop falling for it at some point, but not Kagayaki today.

Ichiyamamoto thought he had Wakatakakage, but one side-step and all he had was air. Smart sumo by Wakatakakage, though he might be a bit worried by how easily he was pushed back and almost defeated.

I guess Gonoyama learned from his previous losses and was extra careful with Midorifuji whom he probably expected to do everything he did. Gonoyama managed his offensive and defensive expertly this time and in the end was simply too big for Midorifuji to move. Well fought bout by both rikishi.

Endo seems more focused for the last few basho. Even if this time he doesn't look as much fired up as before, he looks sharp and ready for his opponent. I suppose that means his body is doing reasonably well, and that helps him to move up again. How far up exactly is hard to say but maegashira joi doesn't seem to be out of reach.

Shonannoumi was too defensive and let Churanoumi control the bout, and obviously in this shape that didn't end up well for him. Sixth loss in seven days is not what I expected after Shonannoumi was doing quite well in the last few basho. Hopefully he'll get over whatever is bothering him soon.

Ura tried to do big man sumo but it totally failed. He couldn't push Mitakeumi out and the pull ended in disaster. Too bad for Ura, but I do like that he tries to mix it up and not only do trickster sumo every day. For Mitakeumi it was one of the rare days when he actually can stop someone's pushes, but considering it's "only" Ura that's not too encouraging.

Tobizaru didn't seem to have a plan against Atamifuji, except for the hapless pulling attempt which looked fairly improvised. Easy win for Atamifuji.

When Daieisho retreats instead of going all out charging, it's a sure sign that he's not well. For a moment it seemed like Takanosho might take Daieisho's place with the all-out charge but Daieisho exploited it perfectly and got a pulldown win. Actually is it me or are there a lot of pulldowns today?

Kotoshoho did really well against Kirishima and almost got a nice utchari win, but his left foot shifted down from the tawara and touched outside the ring first. Although Kirishima was in charge for most of the bout, having an inside grip, he escaped rather narrowly in the end.

In the ozeki-contenders' match Hiradoumi proved to be no match for Onosato. Onosato was a bit more aggressive than usual, perhaps trying to prevent Hiradoumi getting into an attacking position and thus neutralising his main weapon. Out of those two the ozeki lookout is definitely favouring Onosato who doesn't seem to be too much bother neither by his yusho leader position nor the ozeki perspective. Let's see if he remains so carefree until the end.

I think this is about the first time I've seen Oho's backwards movement and pulling attempt result in a win. I hope it doesn't reinforce his occasional habit to do retreating sumo since he's so much better moving forward. But pulldowns are good to have in the arsenal nevertheless. Oh and Oho got a pretty nasty black eye from Abi's thrust as well.

Jeez, Hoshoryu vs Shodai couldn't have been more one-sided. Hoshoryu was understandably pretty winded up because of his bad performance this basho. Shodai was either a bit apprehensive of Hoshoryu or just plain lazy and did probably the worst version of his upright tachiai, ending up getting bulldozed out in a few seconds. I hope he's not too demoralised by that.

Kotozakura lost pretty convicingly to Wakamotoharu who today showed his best sumo of this basho. Falling two wins behind Onosato seems to dampen Kotozakura's hopes for a yusho chance quite a bit. However, we still have 8 days left and I think any of the leaders, including Kotozakura himself, are capable of dropping a few wins. The yusho race remains wide open, as it should.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 hours ago, Ripe said:

Two precedents actually: first is Futabayama and second is Terunofuji. Neither of them got promoted following back-to-back yushos when first of them was at Sekiwake.

Yes, a Yokozuna run is supposed to start at Ozeki rank. 

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Nishikigi has competed in his 1200th consecutive match and holds a record of 600-600 now

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202409140001667.html

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

1 hour ago, dingo said:

Takayasu keeps ploughing on, even though he seems to be at 50% power at best. I suppose he's desperate to stay in makuuchi, but as we've seen his back is not getting better even after 2 months break between basho. It's sad to see but perhaps this is the beginning of the end for him.

Sorry, but that doesn't even qualify as déjà vu, more like a broken record.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

Sorry, but that doesn't even qualify as déjà vu, more like a broken record.

 ... and yet at one point in the future it will become true, and we will see the middle and finally the end of the end.  Nevertheless, after it happens I will miss him.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, dingo said:

In the ozeki-contenders' match Hiradoumi proved to be no match for Onosato. Onosato was a bit more aggressive than usual, perhaps trying to prevent Hiradoumi getting into an attacking position and thus neutralising his main weapon. Out of those two the ozeki lookout is definitely favouring Onosato who doesn't seem to be too much bother neither by his yusho leader position nor the ozeki perspective. Let's see if he remains so carefree until the end.

Onosato is actually on an Ozeki run with a good chance to complete it this basho. Hiradoumi may have started one last basho, and only if he can get to Sekiwake this time.

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

Is Oshoma Tomokaze reincarnated? The new hatakikomi king. 

[dingo 1,160]

11 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Sorry, but that doesn't even qualify as déjà vu, more like a broken record.

Yeah I recognize that, but for me the difference is that this time he's at M15 and had a tough start to the basho with visible discomfort in his back. The last time he was at double digit maegashira rank was in 2020 right after he'd dropped from ozeki with his injury. He's recovered admirably, but for me the writing is now really on the wall. I hope he'll prove me wrong, but he's not exactly getting younger.

Besides, a broken record is also correct twice per day or something like that

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

3 minutes ago, dingo said:

Yeah I recognize that, but for me the difference is that this time he's at M15 and had a tough start to the basho with visible discomfort in his back. The last time he was at double digit maegashira rank was in 2020 right after he'd dropped from ozeki with his injury. He's recovered admirably, but for me the writing is now really on the wall. I hope he'll prove me wrong, but he's not exactly getting younger.

Besides, a broken record is also correct twice per day or something like that

Until he achieves the elusive yusho, Takayasu will never quit!

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

5 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Until he achieves the elusive yusho, Takayasu will never quit!

If so, our descendants might enjoy watching whatever is left of his human body in 21st century cybersumo. 

[dingo 1,160]

7 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Until he achieves the elusive yusho, Takayasu will never quit!

I just hope that elusive yusho won't be in juryo (which he also doesn't have!).

[RabidJohn 1,665]

Nakabi KK in makuuchi strike me as being rather elusive, and Mitakeumi didn't make that one easy for Onosato. Aside from being unable to halt the overall backward momentum, Mitakeumi seemed to have a counter for most of Onosato's moves. Still trying to figure it out... or maybe it'll become another of those eternal mysteries, like how Mitakeumi is Tamawashi's kryptonite.

Kirishima to Ura: "You wanna take a breather? Sure. I'll even rest my arms a bit. You're still landing on your head, though."

Very enjoyable bout between Hoshoryu and Wakamotoharu, although I felt the latter played the former's game too much.
They don't like giving Hoshoryu kakenage wins, do they? And that, IMO, was way more kake than kubi.

[Gurowake 3,919]

It will be interesting to see what they do if both Hiradoumi ends up with exactly 10 wins and there's no room for him at Sekiwake as seems reasonable to think might happen this basho.  There's been once in the 6-basho era that someone had 10 wins back-to-back at Komusubi without there being a spot open for them either time, and he was promoted to Sekiwake anyway, but that was a long time ago, and since then they had cases of promoting Komusubi with two consecutive KKs at that rank regardless of the number of wins, and K->S promotions with only 10 wins when the previous basho was at maegashira (sometimes with only 8 wins), so I don't think we can really say for sure whether a 10-10 Komusubi these days would get an automatic Sekiwake promotion simply because they would be on a reasonable Ozeki run with running double digit totals.  Given that this will likely be relevant to the total number of sanyaku, it will be a huge issue for GTB if it comes up.  It might get even worse if Daieisho also gets exactly 10 wins and there no spots open (as still might be possible), since promoting Hiradoumi would mean him jumping over Daieisho with the same number of wins, which really shouldn't happen in other cases on the banzuke (it's happened I think once in the history of normal Ozeki promotions, though it's happened quite a few times with 10-win auto re-promotions).

I'd just hate to see Hiradoumi get 10 wins this tournament, not be promoted, and then win the Yusho next tournament with at least 12 wins and have him not promoted to Ozeki simply because he's not a Sekiwake.  In one of the sumo games (Quad?) Asashosakari actually did promote me to Ozeki once upon a time in that situation.  Only once in Ozumo has someone had a 3-tournament joi run of 33 wins or 32 wins with a Yusho in the last tournament not ranked at Sekiwake in the third tournament, and that was Takakeisho who started from M3w and didn't even get promoted when he had an all-sanyaku 33/3 win with a Yusho.  That's not entirely the same precedent since the first basho was as one of the lowest ranked joi Maeagshira, meaning 32 + Yusho is more reasonable not being a promotion.  There also was a case of Wakanohana in the 90s going M4 9, M3 10, K 14Y, and only getting promoted to Sekiwake, but that looks much worse as an Ozeki promotion run than 10-10-12Y/13 all at Komusubi, and those M3 and M4 bashos, even if he faced most/all the sanyaku he could, had schedules with plenty of mid-ranked maegashira, which would typically require more than the standard 33 wins to get promoted (see Tochinoshin as an example when it might happen).

Edited September 15 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,919]

17 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Only once in Ozumo has someone had a 3-tournament joi run of 33 wins or 32 wins with a Yusho in the last tournament not ranked at Sekiwake in the third tournament, and that was Takakeisho who started from M3w and didn't even get promoted when he had an all-sanyaku 33/3 win with a Yusho. 

I suppose this also raises the issue whether even if he does get 33/3 from Sekiwake whether it will be good enough, so they might be fine with not promoting 33/3 from Komusubi anyway.  10-10-15 though would seem like an iron clad promotion as long as he was at Sekiwake, and they should at least consider it a possibility.

Edited September 15 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I suppose this also raises the issue whether even if he does get 33/3 from Sekiwake whether it will be good enough, so they might be fine with not promoting 33/3 from Komusubi anyway.  10-10-15 though would seem like an iron clad promotion as long as he was at Sekiwake, and they should at least consider it a possibility.

We chatted about this before the basho. Given that this is his first stint in san'yaku, and he's fairly new to makuuchi, I don't think they'd hesitate leaving him at komusubi if there's no pressing reason other than the potential ozeki run to promote him. If he then pops off in Kyushu, they'll just ask for double digits at Hatsu. They famously didn't promote Takakeisho after 9-13-11 at K-K-S (with 10 at M3 before that run), so I don't see an issue here.

[Katooshu 3,135]

What does Onosato need to hit to make ozeki for November more likely than not? Would 12-9-12 (33) without a yusho on the second 12 be so different from Takakeisho's unsuccessful 9-13-11?

Edited September 15 by Katooshu

[Reonito 1,335]

14 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

What does Onosato need to hit to make ozeki for November more likely than not? Would 12-9-12 (33) without a yusho on the second 12 be so different from Takakeisho's unsuccessful 9-13-11?

They'd have discretion to go either way with that result. Quality of the sumo and timing of the losses matters: Takakeisho got absolutely demolished by Goeido on day 15, and apparently the shimpan were heard saying, "not with that sumo." I'd guess Onosato is more likely than not to be promoted with that result, and anything more would all but assure it.

[Gurowake 3,919]

20 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

What does Onosato need to hit to make ozeki promotion more likely than not? Would 12-9-12 (33) be so different from Takakeisho's unsuccessful 9-13-11?

I'm not sure if Onosato's rapid climb with no MKs and last basho being his only non-double-digit basho works for him or against him in this regard.  No one has ever really done that as far as I'm aware. Your guess is as good as mine whether they're going to say "We need to see him in more basho total to make sure it's not a lucky run" or "His ability to get to 33/3 without ever having an MK shows it's not a fluke".  I personally lean toward the latter, which makes me think the Kyokai will lean toward the former. 

Zensho: Of course

14: Shouldn't be an issue

13: Most likely the answer to your first question

12: Depends on quality of results, whether he wins the Yusho, and how they feel about the issue I mentioned above.

11: No way.

Edited September 15 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,919]

It looks like the Kyokai seem to be allergic to having the top 4 round robin on the last three days, as their choice of intrasanyaku match for Day 9 makes filling out the entire intrasanyaku schedule the normal way incompatible with the top 4 round robin.  Most likely Hoshoryu's Sekiwake opponents will be permuted in some way that works (there's two most likely ways) with the expected schedule for Kotozakura.

A related issue though is what they're going to do with Abi is he keeps losing.  Are they really going to have him fight against Onosato on Day 15 as the typical senshuraku schedule would suggest, and Kotonowaka on Day 14, if he's MK?  Similarly, are they really going to have Onosato vs. Kirishima before any Sekiwake vs. Ozeki matches despite them being the leaders?  They might skip it Day 10 in favor of Abi vs. Kirishima, but they'd have to alter the normal rank order of the matches and do some S v O matches if they want to postpone it any further.  If Abi does end up MK soon, they could skip some of Abi's matches against sanyaku, having him face a maegashira on Day 15 along with the intra-Ozeki bout and Onosato vs. Kirishima on Day 15 as the kore yori sanyaku, but that requires advance planning and not doing the schedule normally starting with at worst Day 11.  If we do see Abi instead of Onosato up against Kirishima Day 10, then it's a prospect worth considering.

 

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

49 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

It looks like the Kyokai seem to be allergic to having the top 4 round robin on the last three days, as their choice of intrasanyaku match for Day 9 makes filling out the entire intrasanyaku schedule the normal way incompatible with the top 4 round robin.

The basho started with 4 Sekiwake, and even reduced to 3 now, the "top 4" appears to be rather arbitrary, including Kirishima rather than Abi. It's not like we have two yokozuna and two ozeki.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I'd just hate to see Hiradoumi get 10 wins this tournament, not be promoted, and then win the Yusho next tournament with at least 12 wins and have him not promoted to Ozeki simply because he's not a Sekiwake. 

Nobody would call this scenario realistic, you have to agree. 

Promoting every 20/2 rikishi to Sekiwake just in case they might win the yusho seems overly accommodating.

[Akinomaki 39,786]

7 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Nobody would call this scenario realistic, you have to agree. 

Promoting every 20/2 rikishi to Sekiwake just in case they might win the yusho seems overly accommodating.

You can't compare that to other cases, esp. not Takakeisho. There is the "fix" unwritten rule: 3 times double digits at sanyaku and 33 wins is the exact precondition for a promotion, lately repeated by the top Takadagawa. The logical result is that they have to promote him to sekiwake, if he wins 10, because he is on official ozeki run then and they can't/won't promote him from komusubi to ozeki directly.