GTB Aki Basho -RESULTS- 206 entries

[Wamahada 49]

My guess is nearly a copy of Asashosakari‘s guess. I left Abi ahead of Onosato and have some minor swaps on the very bottom. I however expect a MK, as always 

Edited August 19 by Wamahada
Typi

[Nantonoyama 246]

My guess is the exact same as Asashosakari's until M12w, then it varies on the landing spot of the juryo guys for M13-15

[Asashosakari 18,784]

An interesting entry from the current #4 ranked player, with Shirokuma way further down than anybody else I've seen. Could be the difference maker, in either direction.

And while I'm rummaging around off-site, @Reonito's at Tachiai.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

I might be biased because I did basically zero work up until the last minute, but did this seem like maybe the most complicated GTB exercise in the last 3 years?

[Gurowake 3,915]

Terunofuji(12-3 Ye)	Y
Kotozakura(10-5 Oe)	O	Hoshoryu(9-4 Ow)
Abi(8-7 Se)	S	Onosato(9-6 Sw)
Kirishima(8-7 Se)	S	Takakeisho(5-10 Ow)
Hiradoumi(10-5 Kw)	K	Daieisho(8-7 Ke)
Takanosho(12-3 M6e)	M1	Tobizaru(9-6 M4e)
Atamifuji(7-8 M1w)	M2	Mitakeumi(7-8 M2w)
Oho(9-6 M6w)	M3	Wakamotoharu(6-9 M2e)
Shodai(10-5 M10e)	M4	Kotoshoho(8-7 M7e)
Wakatakakage(11-4 M14e)	M5	Shonannoumi(7-8 M5w)
Ura(6-9 M4w)	M6	Churanoumi(10-5 M12w)
Meisei(4-11 M1e)	M7	Gonoyama(5-10 M3w)
Endo(10-5 M14w)	M8	Midorifuji(8-7 M10w)
Ichiyamamoto(8-7 M11e)	M9	Oshoma(7-8 M9e)
Tamawashi(7-8 M9w)	M10	Roga(9-6 M15w)
Sadanoumi(5-10 M7w)	M11	Kagayaki(9-6 M16e)
Bushozan(8-7 M16w)	M12	Kinbozan(4-11 M8w)
Takayasu(0-2 M3e)	M13	Hokutofuji(6-9 M13e)
Nishikigi(5-10 M11w)	M14	Onokatsu(9-6 J1w)
Ryuden(3-12 M8e)	M15	Shirokuma(12-3 J8e)
Onosho(0-4 M5e)	M16	Takarafuji(5-10 M13w)
Kitanowaka(8-7 J3e)	M17

[Gurowake 3,915]

Yes, I reordered the Komusubi and not the Sekiwake.  I'm once again aiming for something that might not be right, but will always be the least wrong regardless of what path they take, with the upside that if they do split the decisions here, it should be clear that I picked the right way to split them.

[Gurowake 3,915]

45 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Shirokuma way further down than anybody else I've seen.

Only one slot compared to my guess, but I would definitely agree that behind Takarafuji seems rather unlikely.

Edited August 19 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,915]

My take on the bottom of the division from what I recall:

Trying to put someone as M13e is hard.  I'd prefer to put Hokutofuji over Takayasu, but Hokutofuji will probably get at least a minimal demotion.  The only other candidate is Onokatsu, but I felt that he was hardly deserving of such a high rank with his performance when Takayasu doesn't look all that wrong there.  Because Hokutofuji should have been ahead of Takayasu, I feel quite comfortable putting him next.  But surely Onokatsu over Nishikigi you may say?  Nay.  Onokatsu by my calculation is headed to the same spot as Nishikigi, and the incumbent has he advantage.  Going strictly by my numbering rules, I'd have Ryuden over both Nishikigi and Onokatsu, but for some reason I can't recall he's behind them both instead.  Regardless, he comes next, as even without any softening the fall for at terrible record, once again he and Shirokuma are headed to the same place by my reckoning.  I then have Onosho as -13 to 18e, but Takarafuji is going to 18w, so Onosho gets the spot after Shirokuma. If Takarafuji were in Juryo, he'd be headed to J2e, same as Kitanowaka, so Kitanowaka is last.

This is probably where the most points will be won or lost comparatively.

 

Edited August 19 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

An interesting entry from the current #4 ranked player, with Shirokuma way further down than anybody else I've seen. Could be the difference maker, in either direction.

I think Ryan weighs the notion of a "Juryo joi" a lot more heavily in his predictions.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

Terunofuji (Ye 12-3 Y)    Y    ---
Kotozakura (O1e 10-5)     O    Hoshoryu (O1w 9-4-2)
Onosato (S1w 9-6)         S1   Abi (S1e 8-7)
Kirishima (S2e 8-7)       S2   Takakeisho (O2w 5-10)
Hiradoumi (Kw 10-5)       K    Daieisho (Ke 8-7)

Takanosho (M6e 12-3 D)    M1   Tobizaru (M4e 9-6)
Atamifuji (M1w 7-8)       M2   Oho (M6w 9-6) 
Mitakeumi (M2w 7-8)       M3   Wakamotoharu (M2e 6-9)
Shodai (M10e 10-5)        M4   Kotoshoho (M7e 8-7)
Wakatakakage (M14e 11-4)  M5   Ura (M4w 6-9)
Shonannoumi (M5w 7-8)     M6   Churanoumi (M12w 10-5)
Meisei (M1e 4-11)         M7   Gonoyama (M3w 5-10)
Midorifuji (M10w 8-7)     M8   Endo (M14w 10-5)
Ichiyamamoto (M11e 8-7)   M9   Oshoma (M9e 7-8)
Tamawashi (M9w 7-8)       M10  Sadanoumi (M7w 5-10)
Roga (M15w 9-6)           M11  Kagayaki (M16e 9-6)
Bushozan (M16w 8-7)       M12  Onokatsu (J1w 9-6)
Kinbozan (M8w 4-11)       M13  Shirokuma (J8e 12-3)
Hokutofuji (M13e 6-9)     M14  Nishikigi (M11w 5-10)
Ryuden (M8e 3-12)         M15  Takayasu (M3e 0-2-13)
Takarafuji (M13w 5-10)    M16  Kitanowaka (J3e 8-7)
Onosho (M5e 0-4-11)       M17  ---

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

Am I alone on an island thinking that Asanoyama would get some leeway since he actually won some matches? (I decided to leave Kitanowaka out.)

[Reonito 1,335]

45 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Am I alone on an island thinking that Asanoyama would get some leeway since he actually won some matches? (I decided to leave Kitanowaka out.)

Leeway as in staying in Makuuchi? I don't think there's any chance that happens with 3 wins at M12. If they don't want to promote Kitanowaka, they can keep Chiyoshoma. And while it's a secondary consideration in this case, why give a Makuuchi slot to someone who's guaranteed not to fight in September?

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

I forgot to enter my guess, but here it is for fun.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Yes, I reordered the Komusubi and not the Sekiwake.  I'm once again aiming for something that might not be right, but will always be the least wrong regardless of what path they take, with the upside that if they do split the decisions here, it should be clear that I picked the right way to split them.

I left S and K in place. I don't mind losing 4 points for it, but I will be mad the next time they refuse to rotate them again. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

notion of a "Juryo joi"

Does such a thing actually exist? 

[Kintamayama 44,349]

I'm in for a serious beating then.. As usual. I will really be surprised if Shirokuma gets anything higher than M15 (no precedent for an M13) and if Kitanowaka will be ranked higher than 17E. And leave the K/S as is? I'm going home.

Edited August 20 by Kintamayama

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

The bottom of the banzuke gave me headache. I could not figure out a really satisfactory way to place Onokatsu and Shirokuma: I usually put the juryo promotees too high, and looking at the other guesses I might have done so again.  I think a lot of us agonised over the last two spots and I'm glad at least one good player agreed with me.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

Leeway as in staying in Makuuchi? I don't think there's any chance that happens with 3 wins at M12. If they don't want to promote Kitanowaka, they can keep Chiyoshoma. And while it's a secondary consideration in this case, why give a Makuuchi slot to someone who's guaranteed not to fight in September?

While I can't put myself in precisely the same mindframe I was in 18 hours ago, I'll say it's possible that I was lightly swayed by selective underreporting of negative marks from day 15 on the helper 

[Koorifuu 886]

It only happens once in a blue moon, but I entered this time. And upon reading your messages, they all make a lot more sense than what I put together, I'm in for a MK.

[Shiroiokami 14]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The bottom of the banzuke gave me headache. I could not figure out a really satisfactory way to place Onokatsu and Shirokuma: I usually put the juryo promotees too high, and looking at the other guesses I might have done so again.  I think a lot of us agonised over the last two spots and I'm glad at least one good player agreed with me.

It was unpleasant for everyone, I think it'll come down to where they put onokatsu and shirokuma, I think it'll be 13 for both as all the other wrestlers in the bottom ranks sucked, hard to justify softening their demotions for no good reason other than, "get pwned juryo". I also think that kitanowaka gets the boost, it happens once every decade or so but they haven't saved someone in Chyioshoma's situation since 1958 if I remember correctly. The worst thing that would happen, but also the funniest would be if takanosho somehow did enough to be a 3rd komusubi or hiradoumi got promoted to sekiwake. The scores would get UGLY.

[Reonito 1,335]

14 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Does such a thing actually exist? 

debatable

[Reonito 1,335]

8 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

While I can't put myself in precisely the same mindframe I was in 18 hours ago, I'll say it's possible that I was lightly swayed by selective underreporting of negative marks from day 15 on the helper 

Oh I hadn't noticed that Asanoyama only had 14 bouts on the helper!

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

I had someone point out that Shirokuma landing at M13w would be, in a vacuum, a stunningly high placement, and the examples of Hakuoho and Takerufuji as others who came up from the bottom half of juryo but got stuck behind guys they calculated ahead of. In those cases, though, it looked more like a case of making sure those guys stayed behind the others being promoted from juryo, and not over-demoting anyone who had been in makuuchi. In this case, no matter where Shirokuma goes, he's behind the one other promotee (apart from potentially Kitanowaka, but if Kita comes up he's basically guaranteed M17e), and nobody from makuuchi is being overdemoted. That gives them all the flexibility they want, and turns it into a question of whether they'd rather put Shiro up there or only give Hokutofuji a half-rank demotion.

I stuck with my original idea and left Shiro ahead of them, but I think it's 50/50 at best. The one thing that would very much surprise me is if they split up Hokutofuji/Nishikigi/Ryuden and put Shiro (or anyone, really) between them.

Edit: Logically, I think Takayasu at M13e makes the most sense. I didn't go with it because every time I've done something along those lines for the past year, it's blown up in my face. But this one is probably a little more logical than the other times, so maybe this is when it happens. I just wasn't willing to trust they'd do it.

Edited August 20 by Sumo Spiffy

[Asashosakari 18,784]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Logically, I think Takayasu at M13e makes the most sense. I didn't go with it because every time I've done something along those lines for the past year, it's blown up in my face. But this one is probably a little more logical than the other times, so maybe this is when it happens. I just wasn't willing to trust they'd do it.

Yeah, my logic in putting Takayasu much further down than M13 was pretty much the same. The trend these days seems to be that they're happy to underdemote MKs as a group, but not change their order from what the paint-by-numbers approach calls for. In the past, something like

Takayasu (M3e 0-2-13)   M13  Onokatsu (J1w 9-6)
Ryuden (M8e 3-12)       M14  Nishikigi (M11w 5-10)
Hokutofuji (M13e 6-9)   M15  Onosho (M5e 0-4-11)
Shirokuma (J8e 12-3)    M16  Takarafuji (M13w 5-10)
Kitanowaka (J3e 8-7)    M17

might have been the favoured solution so that Hokutofuji doesn't end up with a ridiculously small drop, but for good reason almost nobody predicts like that anymore.

Edited August 20 by Asashosakari

[Chiyotasuke 257]

16 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

While I can't put myself in precisely the same mindframe I was in 18 hours ago, I'll say it's possible that I was lightly swayed by selective underreporting of negative marks from day 15 on the helper 

Thanks. Noted.

On 06/08/2024 at 05:27, Reonito said:

The link isn't working for me. I remember @Chiyotasuke had an issue with his github page and set up an alternative for July, but I don't remember where that alternative is...

What was the problem when you opened the old link?