Reonito 1,335 Posted July 28 Junior san'yaku Sekiwake: Abi, Onosato, Kirishima, Takakeisho. Komusubi: Daieisho, Hiradoumi, maaaybe Takanosho. The only questions here concern any potential re-ordering of KK rikishi within a rank. I don't think any of us take the possibility of an extra slot being created for Takanosho very seriously. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,335 Posted July 28 1 minute ago, Gurowake said: I definitely think Tamashoho would be more likely to be chosen if they think Onosho is too far gone given the results and what I said above. Yeah, E over W might not be enough to overcome J6 vs J10 ... but the whole thing might perplex them enough to save Onosho Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 688 Posted July 28 7 minutes ago, Reonito said: Final Results Makuuchi demotion candidates: Asanoyama, Nishikifuji, Chiyoshoma, Onosho, Takarafuji, Takayasu. Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu, Shirokuma, Kitanowaka, Shishi, Tamashoho. Onokatsu and Shirokuma will replace Asanoyama and Nishikifuji. Kitanowaka's score should be good enough to push down Chiyoshoma, though I'm not sure it's 100%. Either Shishi or Tamashoho could potentially go up if they don't want to set a post-kosho precedent of keeping a winless M5. Kitanowaka should be definitely through. Shishi and Tamashoho are out of luck, they are too low. This was an excellent basho to have a bad record in Makuuchi. A good one too, actually (looking at all the ovepromotions)... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maguroyama 27 Posted July 29 8 hours ago, Reonito said: Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada, Nabatame, Chiyosakae. Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (6-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (5-2). This worked out very cleanly—3 up, 3 down. Why Chiyosakae and not Tochitaikai? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,335 Posted July 29 30 minutes ago, Maguroyama said: Why Chiyosakae and not Tochitaikai? My mistake, fixed, thanks! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sumo Spiffy 535 Posted July 29 10 hours ago, Reonito said: Yeah, E over W might not be enough to overcome J6 vs J10 ... but the whole thing might perplex them enough to save Onosho While, granted, my initial instinct was that Kitanowaka might not go up because he didn't "earn" the promotion (which I realize now is probably incorrect), I have a hard time seeing Onosho get dunked into juryo when Shishi's only a half-rank ahead of him mathematically. They've pretty consistently put those demoted from makuuchi ahead of anyone who was in juryo when the difference is that small. It seems even less likely they'd take away Onosho's maegashira spot and salary. If there was some news in the next day or two that said Onosho was going to be out of September, then maaaaaybe it becomes more likely? I don't know if they consider things like that when making borderline decisions. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,472 Posted July 29 I'll leave you in the capable hands of @Gurowake and @Reonito. I think Chyioshoma is going down in favour of Kitanowaka, fwiw. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,786 Posted August 15 (edited) My attempt at juryo and the makushita-joi: Tokihayate (J1e 7-8) J1 Nishikifuji (M17e 6-9) Chiyoshoma (M15e 5-5-5) J2 Asanoyama (M12e 3-2-10) Shishi (J10e 11-4) J3 Tamashoho (J6w 9-6) Shimanoumi (J6e 8-7) J4 Shimazuumi (J10w 10-5) Daiamami (J2w 6-9) J5 Hakuoho (J13e 11-4) Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6) J6 Shiden (J7w 8-7) Tsurugisho (J5w 7-8) J7 Mitoryu (J3w 6-9) Asakoryu (J4w 6-9) J8 Hakuyozan (J12e 9-6) Daishoho (J4e 5-10) J9 Myogiryu (J8w 7-8) Tohakuryu (J5e 5-10) J10 Fujiseiun (J14e 9-6) Tomokaze (J7e 5-7-3) J11 Daiseizan (Ms2e 7-0 Y) Takerufuji (J2e 2-1-12) J12 Kiryuko (Ms1w 6-1) Chiyosakae (J9w 5-10) J13 Aoiyama (J11w 6-9) Kayo (J13w 7-8) J14 Oshoumi (Ms3w 5-2) Somebody has to suffer at J5w-J8e; I'm not at all convinced that they'll give preference to the KKs as I've done here, but they can only put Hidenoumi and Shiden so far down before it would get ridiculous. Tochitaikai (J11e 5-10) Ms1 Satorufuji (Ms6w 5-2) Akua (Ms5e 4-3) Ms2 Wakaikari (Ms5w 4-3) Chiyomaru (Ms6e 4-3) Ms3 Dewanoryu (Ms9e 5-2) Nabatame (J14w 4-11) Ms4 Aonishiki (Ms17w 6-1) Daishomaru (Ms8e 4-3) Ms5 Kototebakari (Ms8w 4-3) Kotokuzan (Ms3e 3-4) Ms6 Hitoshi (Ms19w 6-1) Kaisho (Ms9w 4-3) Ms7 Otsuji (Ms4e 3-4) Kitadaichi (Ms14e 5-2) Ms8 Kamito (Ms14w 5-2) Obara (Ms10w 4-3) Ms9 Kotokenryu (Ms11e 4-3) Tsushimanada (J12w 1-14) Ms10 Kazekeno (Ms1e 2-4-1) Yuma (Ms17e 5-2) Ms11 Kotoyusho (Ms15w 4-3) Nishinoryu (Ms30w 6-1) Ms12 Asahakuryu (Ms7e 3-4) Wakanosho (Ms7w 3-4) Ms13 Toshunryu (Ms23e 5-2) Miyagi (Ms23w 5-2) Ms14 Yoshii (Ms4w 2-5) Sadanohikari (Ms20e 4-3) Ms15 Mineyaiba (Ms10e 3-4) Very similar to Oskanohana's, the main difference being that I've got Nabatame in the top 5 rather than Hitoshi. I suspect we're both wrong and Nabatame ends up neither as high as I have him nor as low as Oskanohana does. Other banzuke movementy stuff I track and normally don't post: Promotions from sandanme: 7-0 x1 Sd55w 6-1 x5 Sd6w, Sd23w, Sd29e, Sd36e, Sd45e 5-2 x7 Sd4e, Sd10e, Sd14w, Sd15e, Sd15w, Sd18w, Sd21w 4-3 x5 Sd2e, Sd2w, Sd8e, Sd8w, Sd11e MsTd x2 -------- x20 The two tsukedashi aren't coming up from sandanme, of course, but they are functionally the same in that room needs to be made for them. Demotions from makushita: intai x1 Ms43w 0-0-7 x1 Ms54w 0-7 x0 (Ms20w) 1-6 x2 Ms51e, Ms49e, (Ms28w) 2-5 x7 Ms57w, Ms55w, Ms48e, Ms47w, Ms45e, Ms42w, Ms41w, (Ms38e) 3-4 x8 Ms60w, Ms60e, Ms59w, Ms55e, Ms53w, Ms53e, Ms52e, Ms50e, (Ms46e) -------- x19 Your guess is as good as mine as to who's going to be the unlucky 20th guy who has to vacate his makushita spot in addition to the definite 19. Could be any of the four ranks listed in brackets. (Sending down the winless Ms20w would be exceedingly unusual, the others have all happened before.) I would probably consider the Ms38e 2-5 to be the primary contender. Shin-makushita: Inami (Sd55w 7-0 Y) Tokitenran (Sd6w 6-1) Hogasho (Sd8e 4-3) Promotions from jonidan: 7-0 x1 Jd25e 6-1 x7 Jd5w, Jd11e, Jd23w, Jd47e, Jd50e, Jd55e, Jd68w 5-2 x13 Jd3e, Jd4e, Jd4w, Jd9w, Jd13w, Jd16e, Jd22e, Jd27e, Jd27w, Jd30e, Jd32e, Jd33e, Jd35w 4-3 x10 Jd3w, Jd6e, Jd6w, Jd7w, Jd11w, Jd12w, Jd15w, Jd17e, Jd19e, Jd19w MsTd x2 -------- x33 The MsTd are looking even more out of place here, but since their additional space requirements carry over they need to be accounted for with this, too. Demotions from sandanme: intai x8 Ms43w, Sd20w, Sd29w, Sd36w, Sd46e, Sd77w, Sd78w, Sd79w 0-0-7 x3 Sd74w, Sd61e, Sd40e 0-7 x1 Sd50e 1-6 x4 Sd85e, Sd76e, Sd75w, Sd54w, (Sd46e) 2-5 x9 Sd89e, Sd87w, Sd82w, Sd77e, Sd72w, Sd68w, Sd67e, Sd66e, Sd63w, (Sd60w) 3-4 x8 Sd90e, Sd88w, Sd85w, Sd84e, Sd83e, Sd81e, Sd78e, Sd73e, (Sd72e) -------- x33 Perhaps Sd54w 1-6 will be spared and it's Sd72e 3-4 going down instead. Jd/Jk split: 198 Jd in Nagoya 35 Jk in Nagoya - 11 intai - 0 >Bg + 2 MsTd + 6 Mz ---- 230 = 115 ranks combined in Aki Likely to be in Jk: Mz x6 Jk 0-7 x2 Jk17e, Jkd8e Jk 1-6 x3 Jk12e, Jk10e, Jk2e Jk 2-6w x1 Jk2w Jk 2-5 x6 Jk18e, Jk16w, Jk11e, Jk7e, Jk6w, Jk4w Jk 3-4 x10 Jk14e, Jk13e, Jk12w, Jk9e, Jk8w, Jk7w, Jk5w, Jk4e, Jk1w, Jk1e Jd 0-0-7 x6 Jd99e, Jd92e, Jd91w, Jd85e, Jd73w, Jd71w, (Jd48e, Jd46e, Jd42e, Jd40w) Jd 0-7 x1 Jd77w Jd 1-6 x1 Jd95w, (Jd77e, Jd75e, Jd72e) Jd 2-5 x2 Jd96e, Jd94w, (Jd88e, Jd85w, Jd84w) Jd 3-4 x0 (Jd98e, Jd97e, Jd96w, Jd94e) ----------- x38 => 96 Jd, 19 Jk All these 38 rikishi ought to be in jonokuchi*, but that's almost certainly wrong. It would mean Jk getting larger at the same time as Jd is getting smaller, and that hasn't happened at all in just over 20 years (2004 Hatsu: 114 + 38.5 ranks, Haru: 112 + 39), and with Jk expanding by more than a single spot it hasn't happened in exactly 30 years (1994 Nagoya: 205 + 63, Aki: 200 + 64). On the other hand, it would also be extremely unusual for Jk 3-4's to get promoted to jonidan after a Nagoya tournament. After Haru it happens all the time, of course, since Jk space needs to be cleared for all the guys coming up from maezumo, and with the increasing amount of high schoolers and collegiates debuting in November and January it has been happening after Kyushu and after Hatsu on occasion as well in recent years when the shindeshi classes were sufficiently large, but after any of the other tournaments it has been very rare. (Ignore 2011.05, that was the yaocho scandal-delayed 2011 Haru class.) So, I dunno. I guess the Jd96e and Jd94w 2-5's are the most likely to have ended up in jonidan additionally, plus either zero, two or four Jk 3-4's. * Actually, as many as 42 rikishi ought to be in jonokuchi, but last year they started to go easy on borderline 0-0-7's. Previously the four absent guys between Jd40w and Jd48e would all have been on a certain trip to Jk. Edited August 15 by Asashosakari 4 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andreas21 182 Posted August 29 I'm baffled for the actual Banzuke for Aki. Why the heck Nishikifuji remains in Makuuchi with 6-9 on M17e, the very last Makuuchi? I would have thought, demotion is obligatory. At least, in a situation with some up/down options. Why the heck Onosho is demoted from M5e with injury-ridden 0-4-11? This is 13 double ranks! Well, possibly, when there is huge pressure from below. But in exchange for a J3a 8-7, to save a M17e 6-9?? (Questions are partly rhetorical - so no explanation required. I can give it myself.) I would favor a bonus given for injured Rikishi, and I know the Banzuke committee does not give it. But an extra hard demotion for injured Rikishi? Whao! Well, I refuse to play GTB. Forever. I do not understand, and I refuse to do 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fashiritētā 169 Posted August 29 Nishikifuji is the Shimanoumi of Makuuchi 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
