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Reonito

Promotion/Demotion Discussion, Nagoya 2024

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If Juryo produces only 2 promotable candidates, would Onosho be safe? Would they replace him with a 12-3 Shishi, for example?

Takayasu stays in no matter what, probably.

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16 minutes ago, Reonito said:

As we've seen before, what the torikumi committee tees up and what the banzuke committee decides aren't always the same.

They ought to be on the same page this time, though. Kotokuzan-Chiyosakae isn't one of those cases where the promotion by a winning Ms guy could be pre-empted by other results, nor one where a loss could still see him promoted. It will be hard to justify not making the exchange if Kotokuzan wins.

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Makuuchi demotion candidates: Nishikifuji (3), Asanoyama (2), Chiyoshoma (2), Onosho (2), Takarafuji (1), Takayasu (1).

Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (0), Tokihayate (1), Shirokuma (1), Kitanowaka (2), Shishi (2).

Onokatsu is still the only Juryo man with a promotable record! Nishikifuji now seems impossible to keep, and I don't see any way they can keep Asanoyama. Tokihayate would be promoted with a win against Shirokuma, but would be make-koshi with a loss. Kitanowaka likewise needs a win to have any shot at promotion. In any case, only two rikishi can end up with promotable records, and at most five can be plausibly promoted (the next-best option would be a 9-6 J6, assuming Shimanoumi or Tamashoho win tomorrow). So I tend to agree with @Sakura that Takayasu will stay, and so will Takarafuji even with a loss. Likewise, Chiyoshoma should be fine with a win. What to do with Chiyoshoma if he loses, as well as with Onosho, isn't at all obvious, and will depend on the outcomes of the Day 15 Juryo bouts.

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2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

If Juryo produces only 2 promotable candidates, would Onosho be safe? Would they replace him with a 12-3 Shishi, for example?

Takayasu stays in no matter what, probably.

See the post above. I'd guess 12-3 Shishi replaces Onosho, but maybe not if Chiyoshoma loses.

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Junior san'yaku

Sekiwake: AbiOnosatoTakakeisho, Kirishima with a win on Day 15.

Komusubi: DaieishoHiradoumi, Kirishima with a loss on Day 15, maaaybe Takanosho with a win/yusho if they want to be generous.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

maaaybe Takanosho with a win/yusho if they want to be generous

I wouldn't bet on it. 

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Posted (edited)

When I looked at the torikumi, I immediately assumed that Tochitaikai-Oshoumi and Chiyosakae-Kotokuzan were exchange bouts.  If Kotokuzan wins, then he'll be ahead of Oshoumi unless Oshoumi wins, so Kotokuzan would have priority to take the spot being vacated by Chiyosakae if that's the only one that's potentially available.  If Oshoumi wins, I don't think there's any doubt he's got a good enough record to replace Tochitaikai.  So the only thing left that's at all non-obvious is whether Kotokuzan is able to replace Chiyosakae if the former wins.  While I understand that there's a disconnect between the torikumi decisions and banzuke decisions, it seems unfathomable to me that they wouldn't give the spot to the winner.  If it were a comparison being made with no exchange match, I could see them snubbing Kotokuzan, but not when there's a direct match between them.

Edited by Gurowake
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11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

maaaybe Takanosho with a win/yusho if they want to be generous.

Only in the sense that it would be logically possible.  I don't think it would ever happen that he would get an extra spot.

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2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Only in the sense that it would be logically possible.  I don't think it would ever happen that he would get an extra spot.

Perhaps to create another 1Y / 2O / 3S / 4K banzuke if Kirishima loses. ;-)

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The Makuuchi - Juryo exchange situation is ugly in terms of a lack of candidates for promotions.  At least we're getting a match up that guarantees a second rikishi with a normally promotable record.  The winner of Tokihayate-Shirokuma will definitely join Onokatsu in Makuuchi at expense of Asanoyama and Nishikifuji.  The lack of any other candidates for promotable records means that Takarafuji should already be safe, and Chiyoshoma should be safe with a win.  Takayasu is clearly safe, and it's pretty up in the air whether they think they need to demote Onosho for any of the weak Juryo candidates.  My take is that Onosho is fully safe, as I would put an 0-15 "by the numbers" down 13 ranks, not 15, which puts him only 1 win short, which means he's as safe as Takarafuji in my eyes.  The spot that might get opened up by Chiyoshoma losing would either go to Kitanowaka if he wins, then Shirokuma if he loses, and if he ended up winning, Shishi if he wins.  If Shirokuma wins and Shishi, Kitanowaka, and Chiyoshoma all lose, it might go to a 9-6 J6; if none of those exist, Chiyoshoma definitely keeps the spot, and might even keep it if there is one.

 

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48 minutes ago, Reonito said:

As we've seen before, what the torikumi committee tees up and what the banzuke committee decides aren't always the same.

I'm not familiar enough with the Japanese society to know whether this kind of counterproductive disconnect is common or not, but I guess we're taking it on the chin from halfway across the world.

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Posted (edited)

Beyond waiting to see if Kirishima will end up as Sekiwake or Komusubi, there's one other item that we need to consider about the sanyaku.  If Hiradoumi finishes with more wins than Daieisho, will they swap them?  I went through all the times that there were 2 Komusubi KKs and the last time that I saw the case where there was a KK East Komusubi with less wins than a KK West Komusubi when both stayed at Komusubi was back in like 1999, which is a long time ago and might be before the time where they stopped rearranging Sekiwake based on records most of the time.  There is a more recent occurrence where a KK West Komusubi 1 had less wins than a KK West Komusubi 2, both stayed at Komusubi, and the latter ended up East Komusubi, but from what we've seen with Sekiwake movement, that's more likely to happen than actually giving a "demotion" to a KK sanyaku.  The same question could be asked for the Sekiwake as well.  We recently had Kotonowaka force a "demotion" for Daieisho with 11 wins to the latter's 9.  Is this a new, more common sense era we've entered, or was that a case of them thinking Ktonowaka deserved to be ranked higher on that particular occasion?

Edited by Gurowake
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9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Beyond waiting to see if Kirishima will end up as Sekiwake or Komusubi, there's one other item that we need to consider about the sanyaku.  If Hiradoumi finishes with more wins than Daieisho, will they swap them?  I went through all the times that there were 2 Komusubi KKs and the last time that I saw the case where there was a KK East Komusubi with less wins than a KK West Komusubi when both stayed at Komusubi was back in like 1999, which is a long time ago and might be before the time where they stopped rearranging Sekiwake based on records most of the time.  There is a more recent occurrence where a KK West Komusubi 1 had less wins than a KK West Komusubi 2, both stayed at Komusubi, and the latter ended up East Komusubi, but from what we've seen with Sekiwake movement, that's more likely to happen than actually giving a "demotion" to a KK sanyaku.

The same question could be asked for the Sekiwake as well.

It seems to happen more ofter at Sekiwake level for some reason.

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41 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

it might go to a 9-6 J6

If they bring up Shimanoumi... (Bombabouttobeblown...)

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If they bring up Shimanoumi... (Bombabouttobeblown...)

As I was thinking about the exchange picture and thought how deep they might have to go I realized that I had to put a ~ against Shimanoumi, but my mind rebelled and I just ignored him. If I have to add him in after Day 15, I will.

I agree with @Gurowake that Onosho might stay, I should have kept him as a?. Once Day 15 is over, we can at least look at all the possibilities again. 

Edited by Sakura
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Posted (edited)

Juryo - Makushita

         
    J9 Chiyosakae 4-10 (1)
         
(1) 5-9 Tochitaikai J11 Aoiyama 6-8 (o)
    J12 Tsushimanada 1-12 (x)
    J13 Kayo 7-7 (o)
    J14 Nabatame 3-10 (x)

Aoiyama and Kayo are safe. The other two are involved in exchange bouts with Kotokuzan and Oshoumi.

Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
    Ms1 Kiryuko 5-1 (o)
(o) 7-0 Daiseizan Ms2    
3-3 Kotokuzan Ms3 Oshoumi 4-2
         
(x) 4-3 Akua Ms5 Wakaikari 3-3 (x)

 

If both Makushita wrestlers win then Oshoumi would replace Chiyosakae and I'm fairly confident that a 4-3 Kotokuzan would replace a 5-10 Tochitaikai. If they both lose, then neither gets promoted. If Oshoumi wins, but not Kotokuzan, then it's a simple Tochitaikai-Oshoumi exchange. If Kotokuzan wins, but not Oshoumi, we'd have two rikishi at Ms3 on 4-3. Would they replace just Kotokuzan with Chiyosakae or would they not promote Kotokuzan. I'm inclined to think the former.

Edited by Sakura

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55 minutes ago, Sakura said:

If both Makushita wrestlers win then Oshoumi would replace Chiyosakae and I'm fairly confident that a 4-3 Kotokuzan would replace a 5-10 Tochitaikai.

I suppose I didn't consider this case in full detail, because it seemed obvious to me that both were exchange matches.  Yes, technically one does have to consider this possibility, and I should say that my analysis was incomplete without it.  It was just blindingly obvious to me that they both were exchange matches, and considering the implications of the comparisons in all situations was just not something that seemed to be needed.

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

If they bring up Shimanoumi... (Bombabouttobeblown...)

A 79-101 stint in juryo is surely worth of a promotion. You guys are just haters.

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Makuuchi-Juryo situation looks pretty straightforward given the results.  Chiyoshoma should go down for Kitanowaka, and there's no one else with remotely a good enough record to take down Onosho or Takarafuji.  The best by the numbers would still be two wins short of a normal promotion.

Juryo - Makushita saw only one exchange bout with a Makushita winner, and it's the one where there's no question of what to do due to it.

 

Chiyoshoma(5-5 M15e) J1 Nishikifuji(6-9 M17e)
Tokihayate(7-8 J1e) J2 Shishi(11-4 J10e)
Tamashoho(9-6 J6w) J3 Asanoyama(3-2 M12e)
Shimanoumi(8-7 J6e) J4 Shimazuumi(10-5 J10w)
Daiamami(6-9 J2w) J5 Hakuoho(11-4 J13e)
Hidenoumi(9-6 J9e) J6 Shiden(8-7 J7w)
Mitoryu(6-9 J3w) J7 Tsurugisho(7-8 J5w)
Asakoryu(6-9 J4w) J8 Hakuyozan(9-6 J12e)
Daishoho(5-10 J4e) J9 Myogiryu(7-8 J8w)
Tohakuryu(5-10 J5e) J10 Fujiseiun(9-6 J14e)
Tomokaze(5-7 J7e) J11 Takerufuji(2-1 J2e)
Daiseizan(7-0 Ms2e) J12 Kiryuko(6-1 Ms1w)
Chiyosakae(5-10 J9w) J13 Aoiyama(6-9 J11w)
Kayo(7-8 J13w) J14 Oshoumi(5-2 Ms3w)

A bit too many rikishi should go in the J6-J8 area so there are some rikishi who will need to get larger demotions than normal.  

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Quick jab at the makushita extended promotion zone.

Tochitaikai (5-10, J11e) Ms1 Satorufuji (5-2 Ms6w)
Akua (4-3 Ms5e) Ms2 Wakaikari (4-3 Ms5w)
Chiyomaru (4-3 Ms6e) Ms3 Dewanoryu (5-2 Ms9e)
Aonishiki (6-1 Ms17w) Ms4 Hitoshi (6-1 Ms19w)
Daishomaru (4-3 Ms8e) Ms5 Kototebakari (4-3 Ms8w)
Nabatame (4-11 J14w) Ms6 Kotokuzan (3-4 Ms3e)
Otsuji (3-4 Ms4e) Ms7 Kaisho (4-3 Ms9w)
Kitadaichi (5-2 Ms14e) Ms8 Kamito (5-2 Ms14w)
Obara (4-3 Ms10w) Ms9 Tsushimanada (1-14 J12w)
Kotokenryu (4-3 Ms11e) Ms10 Yuma (5-2 Ms17e)
Kazekeno (2-4-1 Ms1e) Ms11 Asahakuryu (3-4 Ms7e)
Wakanosho (3-4 Ms7w) Ms12 Kotoyusho (4-3 Ms15w)
Nishinoryu (6-1 Ms30w) Ms13 Yoshii (2-5 Ms4w)
Toshunryu (5-2 Ms23e) Ms14 Miyagi (5-2 Ms23w)
Mineyaiba (3-4 Ms10e) Ms15 Sadanohikari (4-3 Ms20e)

 

Other candidates to the top 30 by record would be:

6-1: Ms40w Tanji

5-2: Ms29e Hananoumi, Ms29w Kusano

4-3: Ms22e Hatsuyama, Ms22w Tochiseiryu  

3-4: Ms12e Tokunomusashi

2-5: Ms11w Tenshoho

1-6: Ms2w Kitaharima

Unless they underpromote Kitaharima (because heaven knows what their pattern is with 1-6 records on the top 5 ranks) or they feel Tokunomusashi is worthier than Sadanohikari, I'm pretty confident in the identity of the 30. More experienced makushita banzuke makers might have better ideas.

 

Regarding juryo-makuuchi, if they think that Onosho must be demoted because he was number 18 and only top 16 should be safe, I really feel they can promote Shishi. And if you think his rookie status might deter them, go ask Hiradoumi.

 

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Final Results

Makuuchi demotion candidates:  Asanoyama, Nishikifuji, Chiyoshoma, Onosho, Takarafuji, Takayasu.

Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu, Shirokuma, Kitanowaka, Shishi, Tamashoho.

Onokatsu and Shirokuma will replace Asanoyama and Nishikifuji. Kitanowaka's score should be good enough to push down Chiyoshoma, though I'm not sure it's 100%. Either Shishi or Tamashoho could potentially go up if they don't want to set a post-kosho precedent of keeping a winless M5.

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1 hour ago, Oskanohana said:

if they think that Onosho must be demoted because he was number 18 and only top 16 should be safe, I really feel they can promote Shishi.

While it obviously would be much more likely if Shishi had won, there is in general a strong bias against promoting people from the bottom half of the division.  That's not to say they won't do it, but if it's at all close, they tend to not do so.  In my previous analysis I perhaps didn't consider strongly enough the chance that Shishi might win and be a somewhat reasonable candidate to push down Onosho, it was mainly because of that bias that made me think that they weren't going to promote someone that low unless they had a normally promotable record or there was another Makuuchi rikishi who was far too gone to consider keeping.

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Posted (edited)

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada, Nabatame, Tochitaikai.

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (6-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (5-2).

This worked out very cleanly—3 up, 3 down.

Edited by Reonito

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Either Shishi or Tamashoho could potentially go up if they don't want to set a post-kosho precedent of keeping a winless M5. 

I definitely think Tamashoho would be more likely to be chosen if they think Onosho is too far gone given the results and what I said above.  I know that using precedents that never have happened isn't always sound reasoning, but an 11-4 J10 has not been promoted since 1961 (I didn't check before that, because it would be mostly irrelevant), while there have been plenty of promotions from 9-6 J6.  Sure, there are a lot more occurrences of the latter, but it's around 8%, which for the other we'd probably expect to see one out of the 27.

Edited by Gurowake
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