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Reonito

Promotion/Demotion Discussion, Nagoya 2024

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3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Kirishima can also vacate his S slot by winning out and getting back to Ozeki.

That is true, though I guess I must have mentally ruled it out. I actually hope he manages it.

 

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3 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

Because Daieisho is ranked higher, he would only need to equal, not exceed Hiradoumi's record

This is true. That is what I meant. I am sorry to make so many errors in my rush to do it before heading out the door this morning,.

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Makuuchi - Juryo

(?) 0-2-10 Takayasu M3    
(x) 0-4-8 Onosho M5    
    M8 Kinbozan 3-9 (1)
         
    M11 Nishikigi 3-9 (2)
(x) 3-2-7 Asanoyama M12    
    M13 Takarafuji 5-7 (1)
    M14    
(3) 4-3-5 Chiyoshoma M15 Roga 6-6 (1)
    M16 Bushozan 6-6 (2)
(3) 5-7 Nishikifuji M17  

A couple of more wins down here, but Nishikifuji joins Chiyoshoma in needing to win out. Given the lack of good candidates in Juryo, I might venture to suggest that everyone needing 1 more win is already safe. 

Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
(1) 7-5 Tokihayate J1 Onokatsu 7-5 (1)
    J2 Daiamami 5-7 (~)
(3) 6-6 Kitanowaka J3 Mitoryu 5-7 (~)
    J4 Asakoryu 5-7 (~)
    J5 Tsurugisho 6-6 (~)
    J6 Tamashoho 7-5 (~)
    J7    
(3) 9-3 Shirokuma J8 Myogiryu 7-5 (x)
(~) 8-4 Hidenoumi J9    
(~) 9-3 Shishi J10 Shimazuumi 9-3 (~)

There are only a handful of rikishi than can reach  normal promotable numbers and the J1s have yet to manage it. If there is a collapse in Makuuchi some rikishi might get lucky.

 

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Day 12:

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (2), Aoiyama (2), Tochitaikai (2), Chiyosakae (1), Tohakuryu (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses.

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (6-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3).

Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. We'll see if there are any other exchanges; tomorrow's crossover bout between Akua and Aoiyama is presumably the first of several that will determine that.

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Juryo - Makushita

(1) 2-10 Tohakuryu J5    
    J9 Chiyosakae 4-8 (1)
         
(2) 4-8 Tochitaikai J11 Aoiyama 4-8 (2)
(o) 7-5 Hakuyozan J12 Tsushimanada 1-11 (x)
    J13 Kayo 5-7 (2)
(o) 8-4 Fujiseiun J14 Nabatame 3-9 (x)

Fujiseiun and Hakuyozan are now safe. No one needs to win out, but Kayo could do with making a push.

Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
    Ms1 Kiryuko 5-1 (o)
(o) 6-0 Daiseizan Ms2    
3-3 Kotokuzan Ms3 Oshoumi 4-2
         
4-2 Akua Ms5 Wakaikari 3-3

 

Akua is up against Aoiyama, but even finishing 5-2 might not be good enough for promotion, depending on what happens in Juryo

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The makuuchi rikishi from Aomori pref. are in danger of having their continuos presence in the division since Hatsu 1883 end - Takarafuji will most likely keep the streak alive though, Onosho and Nishikifuji are the other 2 at the moment o

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Day 13

Sanyaku

12-1 Terunofuji Y  
8-5 Kotozakura O Hoshoryu 9-4
  O Takakeisho 5-8
7-6 Abi S Onosato 8-5
7-6 Kirishima S  
7-6 Daieisho K Hiradoumi 8-5
    M1    
    M2 Mitakeumi 6-7
    M3    
7-6 Tobizaru M4    
    M5 Shonannoumi 6-7 (x)
10-3 Takanosho M6 Oho 8-5 (x)

 

Hoshoryu's win over Kotozakura on Day 12 was costly. He was injured in that bout and pulled out of the tournament, relinquishing any slim chances of yusho hope and giving Onosato a free win. This secures our first Sekiwake slot.

Then Hiradoumi lost to Wakatakakage, meaning that the Komusubi can no longer force a Sekiwake slot. Daieisho lost to Churanoumi meaning that the yusho wouldn't be decided on Day 13 and that Daieisho has yet to secure his Komusubi slot.

Kirishima could not overcome the large head-to-head to beat Takanosho (I've not yet seen the bouts, so I don't know what happened in any of them). There will be no Ozeki return for him next basho. He goes from tsuna-run in January to resarting from scratch next basho. Abi prevailed over Kotozakura to secure his Sanyaku slot.

Finally, Terunofuji beat Takakeisho. The Yokozuna now leads by two with two days to go over two Maegashira, so bizarring something strange, it's basically a done deal. This also means Takakeisho drops down from Ozeki and secures the second Sekiwake slot, knocking Daieisho and Hiradoumi out of Sekiwake contention.

One sanyaku slot is possible if Abi and Kirishima win and Daieisho loses out. The frontrunner at the moment is Takanosho.

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With Abi and Kirishima facing on Day 14, the second Sekiwake slot was claimed by the winner of that bout as soon as Abi beat Kotozakura.

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Day 13:

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (1), Aoiyama (1), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses.

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-3), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3).

Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. Akua's loss to Aoiyama today, along with victories by Kayo and Tochitaikai, increased the likelihood of only two exchanges (Tohakuryu also removed himself from any possible danger). There is no relevant action in Makushita tomorrow, and none of the endangered Juryo rikishi are matched up head-to-head, so depending on how they fare tomorrow, and torikumi committee can decide which, if any, exchange bouts to set up for Day 15.

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Makuuchi demotion candidates: Nishikifuji (3), Asanoyama (2), Chiyoshoma (2), Onosho (2), Takarafuji (1), Nishikigi (1), Takayasu (1).

Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (0), Tokihayate (1), Shorokuma (2), Kitanowaka (2), Shishi (3).

Onokatsu finally became the first Juryo man with a promotable record, and with few promotion candidates able to pass him and no shortage of demotion candidates, he is set to make his Makuuchi debut at Aki. At the moment, he'd replace Nishikifuji, but the incumbent can improve his position vis-à-vis absent Asanoyama with one more win. I don't see any way they can keep Asanoyama, but everyone else could potentially stay if there's no reasonable candidate to replace them. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out down the stretch, and we're likely to see some mix of lucky escapes and unconventional promotions.

 

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7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Day 13:

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (1), Aoiyama (1), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses.

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-3), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3).

Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. Akua's loss to Aoiyama today, along with victories by Kayo and Tochitaikai, increased the likelihood of only two exchanges (Tohakuryu also removed himself from any possible danger). There is no relevant action in Makushita tomorrow, and none of the endangered Juryo rikishi are matched up head-to-head, so depending on how they fare tomorrow, and torikumi committee can decide which, if any, exchange bouts to set up for Day 15.

Whilst this ultimately depends on whatever matchups are still possible, I'm guessing they'll pit Oshoumi against the lowest ranked out of whomever loses from those four guys. Or just Tochitaikai if they all win.

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Posted (edited)

Junior san'yaku

Sekiwake: OnosatoTakakeisho, winner of Day 14 bout between Kirishima and Abi, loser of that bout with a win on Day 15.

Komusubi: Hiradoumi, loser of Kirishima vs. Abi with a loss on Day 15, Daieisho with one more win, one of Takanosho/Mitakeumi/Tobizaru/Oho if both Kirishima and Abi keep Sekiwake and Daieisho loses out.

 

Edited by Reonito

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

 one of Takanosho/Mitakeumi/Tobizaru/Oho if both Kirishima and Abi keep Sekiwake and Daieisho loses out.

 

I've x'd out Oho, since we have a maximum of one slot and he can't pass Takanosho

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I've x'd out Oho, since we have a maximum of one slot and he can't pass Takanosho

You are correct as usual; I noted that they were two wins apart but didn't check the ranks. Technically Takanosho is also guaranteed to finish ahead of Mitakeumi purely by the math, but the difference in rank could well put an 8-7 M2w ahead of a 10-5 M6e (not that it's likely that any of this will actually come into play).

Edited by Reonito

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

You are correct as usual; I noted that they were two wins apart but didn't check the ranks. Technically Takanosho is also guaranteed to finish ahead of Mitakeumi purely by the math, but the difference in rank could well put an 8-7 M2w ahead of a 10-5 M6e (not that it's likely that any of this will actually come into play).

I make plenty of errors without the caffeine. I agree on Mitakeumi and your paranthetical statement.

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57 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I make plenty of errors without the caffeine. I agree on Mitakeumi and your paranthetical statement.

I wouldn't dream of posting before coffee (Sleeping...)

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Makuuchi - Juryo

(?) 0-2-11 Takayasu M3    
    M4    
(x) 0-4-9 Onosho M5    
    M8 Kinbozan 4-9 (o)
         
    M11 Nishikigi 4-9 (1)
(x) 3-2-8 Asanoyama M12    
    M13 Takarafuji 5-8 (1)
         
(2) 5-3-5 Chiyoshoma M15 Roga 7-6 (o)
    M16 Bushozan 7-6 (1)
(~) 5-8 Nishikifuji M17  

Wins by Chiyoshoma, Nishikigi and Bushozan edge them towards safety and Roga and Kinbozan are now fully safe. Nishikifuji has a make-koshi and should be demotable, but winning out and a collapse by Chiyoshoma along with a shortage of candidates from Juryo might be enough to save him. 

Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
(1) 7-6 Tokihayate J1 Onokatsu 8-5 (o)
    J2 Daiamami 5-8 (x)
(2) 7-6 Kitanowaka J3 Mitoryu 5-8 (x)
    J4 Asakoryu 5-8 (x)
    J5 Tsurugisho 6-7 (x)
         
    J7    
(2) 10-3 Shirokuma J8    

(x) 8-5

Hidenoumi J9    
(~) 10-3 Shishi J10    

 

With records as they are in Makuuchi, I don't imagine a lot of good luck down in Juryo, but if I had to add rikishi back in after Day 15 I will. Most of the banzuke luck rikishi at the top of the division lost to go Make-koshi and removes themselves completely.

We do have one promotable rikishi in Onokatsu, who finally made kachi-koshi.

With four rikishi able to get promotable records, I will venture to suggest that both Nishikigi and Takarafuji might be safe already.

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Juryo - Makushita

(o) 3-10 Tohakuryu J5    
    J9 Chiyosakae 4-9 (1)
         
(1) 5-8 Tochitaikai J11 Aoiyama 5-8 (1)
    J12 Tsushimanada 1-12 (x)
    J13 Kayo 6-7 (1)
    J14 Nabatame 3-10 (x)

Tohakuryu is now safe and there were wins by the J11 pair and Kayo

Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
    Ms1 Kiryuko 5-1 (o)
(o) 6-0 Daiseizan Ms2    
3-3 Kotokuzan Ms3 Oshoumi 4-2
         
4-3 Akua Ms5 Wakaikari 3-3

After a loss up in Juryo to Aoiyama, I can't see Akua forcing down any of the remaining endangered rikishi. Kayo at 6-9 might make way for one of the Ms3s. There are no crossover bouts and no matches between endangered rikishi either.

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I see the major difference between caffeine and alcohol is they're best consumed either before or after posting...

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Posted (edited)

Day 14

Sanyaku

12-2 Terunofuji Y  
9-5 Kotozakura O Hoshoryu 9-4-1
  O Takakeisho 5-9
8-6 Abi S Onosato 9-5
7-7 Kirishima S  
8-6 Daieisho K Hiradoumi 9-5
    M1    
    M2 Mitakeumi 6-8 (x)
    M3    
8-6 Tobizaru M4    
    M5    
11-3 Takanosho M6    

 

Takanosho upset Terunofuji to extend the yusho race to Day 15 and the Yokozuna wasn't competitive in that bout, to my eyes.

Earlier, Hiradoumi sent Mitakeumi to make-koshi, Daieisho claimed eight wins and a Sanyaku stay, Abi won the seven-win Sekiwake derby over Kirishima and Onosato eliminated Churanoumi from the yusho race. The match-of-little-consequence between the two remaining Ozeki went to Kotozakura.

That win secures Kotozakura the East Ozeki spot with Hoshoryu on the West side. Now that Abi has a KK, the Abi-Onosato match has been scrapped in favour of Takanosho-Onosato. Takanosho is going for the yusho and Onosato is trying to get to double-digits, so that's a preferable match-up, in my opinion.

It looks like no spot for Takanosho in Sanyaku, even with a yusho. The yusho itself seems not likely as not only would he have to beat Onosato, he is relying on Kotozakura to beat Terunofuji for the first time in 9 attempts (including play-offs). If both of those things happen, he'd still have to beat the Yokozuna in a play-off as well.

Kirishima fights a 7-7 vs 7-7 battle against Tamawashi.

Edited by Sakura
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Makuuchi - Juryo

(?) 0-2-12 Takayasu M3    
    M4    
(x) 0-4-10 Onosho M5    
    M11 Nishikigi 5-9 (o)
(x) 3-2-9 Asanoyama M12    
    M13 Takarafuji 5-9 (1)
         
(~) 5-4-5 Chiyoshoma M15    
    M16 Bushozan 8-6 (o)
(x) 5-9 Nishikifuji M17  

Nishikigi and Bushozan moved to safety, with the latter getting a first KK in the division. Nishikifuji probably isn't salvageable, but given the number of good candidates in Juryo, Takarafuji is probably safe. Chiyoshoma and Nishikifuji meet on Day 15.

Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
(1) 7-7 Tokihayate J1 Onokatsu 8-6 (o)
         
(~) 7-7 Kitanowaka J3    
         
    J7    
(1) 11-3 Shirokuma J8    

 

       
(~) 10-3 Shishi J10    

Tokihayate and Shirokuma meet on Day 15, so we'll have just two rikishi with promotable numbers, so it seems very likely one or two rikishi will be lucky promotees.

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1 hour ago, Sakura said:

It looks like no spot for Takanosho in Sanyaku, even with a yusho. The yusho itself seems not likely as not only would he have to beat Onosato, he is relying on Kotozakura to beat Terunofuji for the first time in 9 attempts (including play-offs). If both of those things happen, he'd still have to beat the Yokozuna in a play-off as well.

Somewhere on an obscure Sumo blog someone is saying "whaddya mean, jun Yusho? He's taking the whole thing!"

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Posted (edited)

They could've easily matched Kotokuzan and Wakaikari, but went out of their way to pit the former (Ms3 3-3) against endangered Chiyosakae. There's no way that isn't an exchange bout, even if we didn't consider that a serious proposition before.

Then there's Oshoumi against Tochitaikai as expected, with Kiryuko (gets to taste Aoiyama's style two months early) & the aforementioned Wakaikari (can pile on Nabatame's misery to secure himself a good joi position) making up the numbers for 15 bouts in juryo!

Kayo and Aoiyama both won to ensure safety.

Edited by Koorifuu
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21 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

They could've easily matched Kotokuzan and Wakaikari, but went out of their way to pit the former (Ms3 3-3) against endangered Chiyosakae. There's no way that isn't an exchange bout, even if we didn't consider that a serious proposition before.

As we've seen before, what the torikumi committee tees up and what the banzuke committee decides aren't always the same.

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Posted (edited)

Day 14:

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1).

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3).

Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. We have two potential exchange bouts: Kotokuzan vs. Chiyosakae and Oshoumi vs. Tochitaikai. Both incumbents would reach safety with a win. Oshoumi's case with a win would likely be strong enough to push down Tochitaikai. Would Kotokuzan's be strong enough to push down Chiyosakae? The latter would actually be in slightly worse shape by the numbers than Tochitaikai, so it would be a bit odd to keep him. Of course, they could send down Chiyosakae, promote Oshoumi, and snub Kotokuzan. It'll be interesting to see what they decide to do.

Edited by Reonito

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