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Reonito

Promotion/Demotion Discussion, Nagoya 2024

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Posted (edited)

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (5), Tochitaikai (4), Aoiyama (3), Kayo (2), Chiyosakae (2), Tohakuryu (2), Fujiseiun (2), Hakuyozan (1). Wins needed for safety in parentheses.

Tsuhimanada is already demotable but could still stay if he wins out and has favorable banzuke luck.

Edited by Reonito
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Posted (edited)

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (5-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (4-1), Ms1e Kazekeno (2-2-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (2-3), Ms4e Otsuji (2-3), Ms5e Akua (3-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (2-3).

Daiseizan should be a lock. He fights Ms19w Hitoshi tomorrow for one of the spots in the yusho final; the other semifinal bout pits 18-year-old Ms40w Tanji against Ms54e Kurohimeyama. Kiryuko got one of the unluckiest non-promotions last time, and would be extremely unlucky to miss out again, but another win should make it a certainty. He gets Ms6w Satorufuji tomorrow. Kazekeno returns from whatever kept him out of action yesterday; he needs to win out for near-automatic immediate re-promotion. Oshoumi certainly helped his own re-promotion chances today by beating Tsushimanada, but probably needs one more win and some measure of luck. Everyone else is already a long shot and listed only because they aren't mathematically out of contention yet and the bottom could fall out in Juryo.

Edited by Reonito

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Posted (edited)

Sanyaku

Terunofuji leads by two in the yusho 'race' It's very likely he'll achieve a 10th yusho and gain the dai-yokozuna status, but in an era where there are 6 basho per year, 10 seems rather small to me for such a distinction.

10-0 Terunofuji Y  
8-2 Kotozakura O Hoshoryu 7-3
  O Takakeisho 4-6 (4)
6-4 Abi S Onosato 5-5
(5) 5-5 Kirishima S  
6-4 Daieisho K Hiradoumi 6-4
    M1 Atamifuji 4-6
4-6 Wakamotoharu M2 Mitakeumi 4-6
    M3 Gonoyama 3-7
5-5 Tobizaru M4 Ura 4-6
    M5 Shonannoumi 5-5
7-3 Takanosho M6 Oho 6-4

 

Kotozakura is the closest to the unbeaten Yokozuna in wins and already has kachi-koshi but at two back is only a nominal contender at this point. Hoshoryu needs one more for KK and Takakeisho needs four from the remaining five. After 3-7 M3 Gonoyama on Day 11, the kadoban Ozeki ought to face Terunofuji, the two other Ozeki and Onosato. Assuming he loses to Terunofuji, he'd need to beat everyone else on his slate to avoid dropping to Sekiwake.

One thing not in Takakeisho's favour is the lack of Maegashira yusho candidates. It seems unlikely that sanyaku matches will be skipped unless he already had 8 losses - but you can't rule that out completely.

Kirishima, needing 10 wins to regain his Ozeki rank is in even worse condition, needing to win out, starting with Kotozakura.

Of the lower Sanyaku, the Komusubi are in the position, sitting at 6-4 and done with their Sanyaku slates. The sekiwake have middling records with a large swath of their Yokozuna and Ozeki slates to come.

There are not any slots open in Sanyaku, but that is ok since no joi maegashira is really pushing a claim to one.

Edited by Sakura
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Posted (edited)

Makuuchi - Juryo

 

(?) 0-2-8 Takayasu M3    
    M4    
(?) 0-4-6 Onosho M5    
    M6    
    M7    
    M8 Kinbozan 3-7 (1) 
    M9    
    M10    
    M11 Nishikigi 1-9 (4)
(x) 3-2-5 Asanoyama M12    
(2) 4-6 Hokutofuji M13 Takarafuji 4-6 (2)
    M14 Endo 6-4 (1)
(4) 3-2-5 Chiyoshoma M15 Roga 5-5 (2)
(1) 6-4 Kagayaki M16 Bushozan 6-4 (2) 
(3) 5-5 Nishikifuji M17  


Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
(2) 6-4 Tokihayate J1 Onokatsu 6-4 (2) 
(x) 2-1-7 Takerufuji J2 Daiamami 4-6 (5)
(5) 4-6 Kitanowaka J3 Mitoryu 5-5 (4)
    J4 Asakoryu 5-5 (5)
    J5 Tsurugisho 6-4 (4)
    J6 Tamashoho 6-4 (5)
(~) 5-5 Tomokaze J7 Shiden 5-5 (~) 
(4) 8-2 Shirokuma J8 Myogiryu 6-4 (~)
(~) 6-4 Hidenoumi J9    
(5) 8-2 Shishi J10 Shimazuumi 7-3 (~)

 

The sad story of Asanoyama continues as injury strikes again. He will be sidelined for 6 months at which point he'll be back down in lower Makushita or even in Sandanme depending on when he returns. After that, should he continue he'll probably take half a year at a minimum to get back to Makuuchi, assuming he makes it that far.

There are two other injured candidates for the drop in Onosho and Takayasu, but with a number of not great records in the bottom part of the division may end up keeping them in, especially if Juryo doesn't come up with good promotion candidates.

Those in trouble include Chiyoshoma, himself sitting out the first part of the basho as well as Nishikifuji, Roga and Nishikigi, the latter of whom only has 1 win.

On the positive side of Juryo we only have the two M1s close to a nominal promotion target, but Onoktasu has gone off the boil a bit in the last few days including a loss to Takerufuji who won't be in Makuuchi next basho after sitting out the start, coming back in for two wins, and then leaving the basho again.

Edited by Sakura
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Juryo - Makushita

(2) 1-9 Tohakuryu J5    
         
         
         
    J9 Chiyosakae 3-7 (2)
         
(4) 2-8 Tochitaikai J11 Aoiyama 3-7 (3)
(1) 6-4 Hakuyozan J12 Tsushimanada 1-9 (~)
    J13 Kayo 5-5 (2)
(2) 6-4 Fujiseiun J14 Nabatame 3-7 (5)


Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
2-2-1 Kazekeno Ms1 Kiryuko 4-1
5-0 Daiseizan Ms2 Kitaharima 1-4 (x) 
2-3 Kotokuzan Ms3 Oshoumi 4-2
2-3 Otsuji Ms4 Yoshii 1-4 (x)
3-2 Akua Ms5 Wakaikari 2-3

Tsushimanada already has a demo table record, but as @Reonito says, any banzuke luck would require him winning out, which doesn't  seem likely. Nabatame and Tochitaikai are also in danger. Daiseizan is the current frontrunner, but Kiryuko is giving himself a good chance and Ms1e Kazekeno is reentering the basho to try and get two more wins for promotion.

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Posted (edited)

Roga doesn't need 3 wins to survive.

Kinbozan should be safe already, he is above Asanoyama, Takayasu, Onosho and anyone else who might get a demotable record.

 

Edited by Bunbukuchagama

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Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

Roga doesn't need 3 wins to survive.

He should be safe for sure with 2, and could survive with one depending on the rest of the exchange picture.

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2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Roga doesn't need 3 wins to survive.

Kinbozan should be safe already, he is above Asanoyama, Takayasu, Onosho and anyone else who might get a demotable record.

 

I agree on Roga. That was a typo.

For everyone else, I know that rikishi are often safe before they hit there target numbers, but I only worry about that after Day 15, In the meantime I continue to show the target numbers. 

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Wow, with the exception of J1 the top half of juryo really looks dire. They're almost a self-contained division this basho... I could perhaps see Tsurugisho getting enough wins but that is a long shot. 

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Posted (edited)

Kiryuko's promotion should be a lock now.

If last basho is any reference, Nabatame is set to make way for him - but could still save himself if he wins out and there's more candidates for demotion than there are for promotion at the end.

(The above already takes Tsushimanada x Daiseizan into consideration.)

Edited by Koorifuu
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Day 11:

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Tochitaikai (3), Aoiyama (2), Kayo (2), Chiyosakae (2), Tohakuryu (1), Fujiseiun (1), Hakuyozan (1). Wins needed for safety in parentheses.

Tsuhimanada is toast. Nabatame is already demotable; he could conceivably still stay if he wins out and there's a better (worse?) demotion candidate, but this seems exceedingly unlikely.

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (6-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3).

Daiseizan is a lock. He will fight Ms54e Kurohimeyama for the yusho; the only notable thing about the latter seems to be his especially unwieldy shikona. With at least two openings in Juryo, Kiryuko is now also a lock. Oshoumi with a win would have a fairly strong case, but he will need someone in Juryo to stumble. Everyone else is already a long shot and listed only because they aren't mathematically out of contention yet and the bottom could fall out in Juryo.

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Makuuchi demotion candidates: Chiyoshoma (4), Nishikifuji (3), Nishikigi (3), Asanoyama (2), Roga (2), Takarafuji (2), Onosho (2), Bushozan (1), Hokutofuji (1), Takayasu (1).

Chiyoshoma can't afford any more losses, while the two Nishikis have minimal breathing room. Of the absentees, Asanoyama should be going down for sure, and Onosho would need a lot of luck to stay; all seven winless M5s post-kosho ended up in Juryo, including, most recently, Onosho himself back in 2018. Three of the seven claimed the Juryo yusho in the subsequent basho, including Onosho!

Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (1), Tokihayate (2), Shorokuma (3). Several others can reach promotable numbers only by winning out. Onokatsu should seal the deal by if he beats Roga tomorrow.

San'yaku: As @Sakura noted yesterday, all the incumbents look likely to stay, and none of the maegashira are exactly beating down the door, so we may well not see any promotions for the first time since Natsu 2022.

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22 hours ago, Sakura said:

10 seems rather small to me for such a distinction.

It makes more sense when there are other Yokozuna.  I agree 10 seems a bit small when you've spent years as the only Yokozuna, especially given that there's only been one long-term Ozeki (who might be demoted soon).

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Sanyaku

 

10-1 Terunofuji Y  
8-3 Kotozakura O Hoshoryu 8-3
  O Takakeisho 5-6
6-5 Abi S Onosato 6-5
6-5 Kirishima S  
7-4 Daieisho K Hiradoumi 7-4
    M1 Atamifuji 4-7
4-7 Wakamotoharu M2 Mitakeumi 4-7
    M3 Gonoyama 3-8 (x)
6-5 Tobizaru M4 Ura 4-7
    M5 Shonannoumi 6-5
8-3 Takanosho M6 Oho 6-5

 

Terunofuji lost to Onosato today, and it wasn't a fluke. The Yokozuna still leads by two after Kotozakura suffered a loss to Kirishima. The Mongolian Sekiwake keeps his hopes of an Ozeki return alive, but still needs to win out with Abi still on the slate. Abi and Onosato can still also get to 10 wins (though not all three Sekiwake, unless the skip some match-ups) by winning out, though Abi and Onosato still have the hard bulk of top ranked opponents to come.

Hoshoryu moves to eight wins, guaranteeing us two non-kadoban Ozeki next basho. Takakeisho beat Gonoyama to move to three wins needed, but it wasn't pretty.

The Komusbi both require just one more win, which is a good thing as the joi has poor records (which is actually proper if things are as they should be).

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Makuuchi - Juryo

(?) 0-2-9 Takayasu M3    
         
(x) 0-4-7 Onosho M5    
         
    M8 Kinbozan 3-8 (1)
    M9    
    M10    
    M11 Nishikigi 2-9 (3)
(x) 3-2-6 Asanoyama M12    
    M13 Takarafuji 4-7 (2)
    M14 Endo 7-4 (o)
(4) 3-3-5 Chiyoshoma M15 Roga 5-6 (2)
(o) 7-4 Kagayaki M16 Bushozan 6-5 (2)
(3) 5-6 Nishikifuji M17  

I've placed Onosho with an x now. Not that there was any change in his scorelines, but just that I changed my opinion. Kagayaki and Endo saved themselves and Chiyoshoma now needs to win out. Of course, getting a demotable record does not automatically mean demotion, especially if there are not great cases for promotion.

Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
(2) 6-5 Tokihayate J1 Onokatsu 7-4 (1)
    J2 Daiamami 5-6 (4)
(4) 5-6 Kitanowaka J3 Mitoryu 5-6 (4)
    J4 Asakoryu 5-6 (~)
    J5 Tsurugisho 6-5 (4)
    J6 Tamashoho 7-4 (4)
(x) 5-6 Tomokaze J7 Shiden 5-6 (x)
(3) 9-2 Shirokuma J8 Myogiryu 7-4 (~)
(~) 7-4 Hidenoumi J9    
(~) 8-3 Shishi J10 Shimazuumi 8-3 (~)

 

Aside from the J1s, who are working their way up slowly towards KK, the next closest record is Shirokuma down at J8. At lot of rikishi needing to win out to make promotable records, so we might end up seeing some lucky losers in Makuuchi.

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Juryo - Makushita

 (1) 2-9 Tohakuryu J5    
    J9 Chiyosakae 3-8 (2)
         
(3) 3-8 Tochitaikai J11 Aoiyama 4-7 (2)
(1) 6-5 Hakuyozan J12 Tsushimanada 1-10 (X)
    J13 Kayo 5-6 (2)
(1) 7-4 Fujiseiun J14 Nabatame 3-8 (X)

 

Wins here for Tochitaikai, Aoiyama and Fujiseiun, but no one new has made the required numbers. Tsushimanada is now beyond luck and is joined by Nabatame. A 7-8 final score plus collapses by Kayo and Tochitaikai might save him, but that seems a long shot, and there are reasonable promotion candidates in Makushita anyway.

Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
(x) 2-3-1 Kazekeno Ms1 Kiryuko 5-1 (o)
(o) 6-0 Daiseizan Ms2    
3-3 Kotokuzan Ms3 Oshoumi 4-2
(x) 2-4 Otsuji Ms4    
4-2 Akua Ms5 Wakaikari 3-3

 

Those promotion candidates no longer include Kazekeno. His loss a long with that of Nabatame has secured two promotion slots for Daiseizan and Kiryuko who should be set to make their debuts.

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6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

It makes more sense when there are other Yokozuna.  I agree 10 seems a bit small when you've spent years as the only Yokozuna, especially given that there's only been one long-term Ozeki (who might be demoted soon).

It makes little sense with other yokozuna present either because that means the 10-win yokozuna likely didn't stick out that much from the competition, or was possibly even overshadowed. Dai-yokozuna are those who are era-defining, not merely those who achieved some particular yusho total.

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That brings up an interesting question -- is a single yokozuna era-defining? By default I suppose it should be since there's no competition. But first of all it depends on how one defines an era -- 2-3 years, 5 years, longer? And secondly it depends on the presence and performance of the yokozuna in question. For me Terunofuji falls somewhere inbetween, having been dominant at some point but fading away due to injury later. 

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3 minutes ago, dingo said:

That brings up an interesting question -- is a single yokozuna era-defining? By default I suppose it should be since there's no competition. But first of all it depends on how one defines an era -- 2-3 years, 5 years, longer? And secondly it depends on the presence and performance of the yokozuna in question. For me Terunofuji falls somewhere inbetween, having been dominant at some point but fading away due to injury later. 

If Terunofuji were to call it quits after this tournament, he will have been a yokozuna for a mere three years; I doubt that's enough to form an era in anyone's books if they try to look at it objectively. As for Terunofuji specifically: Even Musashimaru wasn't a dai-yokozuna in any real sense, but he did do the transitional champion thing - between the breakdown of the Takanohana-led 1990s order and the rise of Asashoryu - with much more sustained success. Terunofuji is the best there currently is, but there's no way anyone who doesn't even complete half his tournaments can be seen as the standard bearer of an era.

Anyway, while the 10-yusho thing is a junk stat that's basically only treated as relevant by non-Japanese fans in the first place, I'd like to point out that if you make it 10 yusho as yokozuna, Wajima is the only one that still makes the cut from all the guys who finished with 10 to 14 yusho in total in the six-basho era. (And no, he's not a dai-yokozuna either.)

Getting to 10 yusho is an excellent career milestone for any yokozuna, but the near-obsessive need of foreign fans to treat it as a history-defining development seems to be partly borne from a revolving door of newbie fans who have a desire to "be there" for something important, and partly from trying to exaggerate the relevance of foreign yokozuna in the historical context. If Kisenosato had not got injured and he had become the transitional champion to clean up in the tournaments after the end of Hakuho's dominance, I strongly doubt his march towards 10 yusho would have received anywhere near the same amount of attention.

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Sanyaku

11-1 Terunofuji Y  
8-4 Kotozakura O Hoshoryu 9-3
  O Takakeisho 5-7
6-6 Abi S Onosato 7-5
7-5 Kirishima S  
7-5 Daieisho K Hiradoumi 8-4
    M1 Atamifuji 4-8 (x)
(x) 4-8 Wakamotoharu M2 Mitakeumi 5-7
    M3    
7-5 Tobizaru M4 Ura 4-8 (x)
    M5 Shonannoumi 6-6
9-3 Takanosho M6 Oho 7-5

 

It is increasingly likely that we will have no spots open in Sanyaku this time around. Hiradoumi achieved kachi-koshi and Onosato and Kirishima picked up their 7th wins to ensure a Komusubi slot at least. Hiradoumi can win out and make 11 wins, theoretically to force a Sekiwake spot. Of course, if everyone who could be a Sekiwake ends up a Sekiwake, then we might have spots open up after all.

The list of potential Sekiwake no longer includes Daieisho, unless of course Kirishima and Onosato both lose out and Abi loses two more and either he ends up with more wins than Hiradoumi or Takakeisho wins out.

Kirishima and Onosato can still make 10 wins by winning out but they both have tough opponents next - for Onosato that's Hoshoryu, who won today over Kotozakura to remain two behind the Yokozuna (who might well be absent for the last bout and still win the yusho). Kirishima faces on-form Takanosho and he has a string 2-13 losing record against him. Abi still has a bit of work to do to make 8 and will need to beat two from Kotozakura, Kirishima and Onosato to get there.

Takakeisho no needs to win out, starting with Terunofuji on Day 13.

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The Fanclub torikumi preview indicates that 5-1 Kiryuko, 4-2's Oshoumi and Akua, and 3-3's Kotokuzan and Wakaikari are all held back for possible juryo duty. The two record pairs could both still be matched up directly, but at least the 4-2's are guaranteed to appear since Akua is already scheduled for tomorrow.

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4 hours ago, Sakura said:

The list of potential Sekiwake no longer includes Daieisho, unless of course Kirishima and Onosato both lose out and Abi loses two more and either he ends up with more wins than Hiradoumi or Takakeisho wins out.

It's unfortunate to have to go to such lengths here to describe all the possibilities.  If only more of the intra-Sekiwake matches hadn't been scheduled yet, we might guarantee some incumbent Sekiwake.  As it is now, Abi can win the only one remaining, and we still might have all of the incumbents at 7-8.  Combined with a Takakeisho demotion, that might create 4 Komusubi in a way that's probably not been done before (I'm not going to look while at work).

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52 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

It's unfortunate to have to go to such lengths here to describe all the possibilities.  If only more of the intra-Sekiwake matches hadn't been scheduled yet, we might guarantee some incumbent Sekiwake.  As it is now, Abi can win the only one remaining, and we still might have all of the incumbents at 7-8.  Combined with a Takakeisho demotion, that might create 4 Komusubi in a way that's probably not been done before (I'm not going to look while at work). 

June 1961 is the closest (there was no need for an Ozeki demotion): https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=196107#M


Makuuchi Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
3-4-8 Wakanohana Y Asashio 12-3 J
13-2 Y Taiho O Kashiwado 11-4
8-7 Kitabayama HD Wakahaguro 5-10
0-5-10 Kotogahama HD  
7-8 Iwakaze S Maedagawa 7-8
  HD Haguroyama 7-8
11-4 G Tochinoumi K Hagurohana 9-6
10-5 K Tochihikari HD  
9-6 Fujinishiki M1 Wakamisugi 5-10
11-4 S Sadanoyama M2 Fusanishiki 4-11

August Banzuke:

Makuuchi Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
0-4-11 Asashio Y Wakanohana 10-5
12-3 Y Taiho O Kashiwado 12-3 D
8-7 Kitabayama HD Wakahaguro 0-0-15
9-6 Kotogahama HD  
8-7 Tochinoumi S Tochihikari 8-7
8-7 Sadanoyama HD Hagurohana 6-9
8-7 Fujinishiki K Iwakaze 8-7
2-13 Maedagawa HD Haguroyama 9-6

 

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6 hours ago, Sakura said:

The list of potential Sekiwake no longer includes Daieisho, unless of course Kirishima and Onosato both lose out and Abi loses two more and either he ends up with more wins than Hiradoumi or Takakeisho wins out.

Kirishima can also vacate his S slot by winning out and getting back to Ozeki.

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6 hours ago, Sakura said:

The list of potential Sekiwake no longer includes Daieisho, unless of course Kirishima and Onosato both lose out and Abi loses two more and either he ends up with more wins than Hiradoumi or Takakeisho wins out.

Because Daieisho is ranked higher, he would only need to equal, not exceed Hiradoumi's record

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