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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2024

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In the hope that everybody's ready to go I'm starting this a bit earlier than usual. After three editions with 12 or fewer ballot rikishi we're back up to a more respectable 15 this time.

 1. Hoshoryu       15  [score?]
 2. Kotozakura     14  [score?]
 3. Daiseizan       9
 4. Wakaikari       8*
 5. Onosato         7* [score?]
 6. Asanowaka       5
 7. Shiroma         5**
 8. Kaigo           5
 9. Kiyonohana      5
10. Hiradoumi       4  [score?]
11. Kotoshoho       4
12. Wakatakakage    4
13. Onokatsu        4*
14. Tochitaikai     4
15. Nabatame        4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since return to the banzuke)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further 4 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (3 'veterans' + newcomer Aonishiki), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 19. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 14 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu W-L
 2. Kotozakura W-L
 3. Daiseizan KKMK
 4. Wakaikari KKMK
 5. Onosato W-L
 6. Asanowaka KKMK
 7. Shiroma KKMK
 8. Kaigo KKMK
 9. Kiyonohana KKMK
10. Hiradoumi W-L
11. Kotoshoho KKMK
12. Wakatakakage KKMK
13. Onokatsu KKMK
14. Tochitaikai KKMK
15. Nabatame KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

 

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So Hoshoryu might become the first Ozeki since Kakuryu with six kachi-koshi in a row from debut. I don't like him, but that's certainly something.

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5 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

So Hoshoryu might become the first Ozeki since Kakuryu with six kachi-koshi in a row from debut. I don't like him, but that's certainly something.

Are you counting those who became Yokozuna within this timespan? :-D

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 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan MK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana MK
10. Hiradoumi 7-8
11. Kotoshoho MK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai MK
15. Nabatame KK

TB 11

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 12-3
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana MK
10. Hiradoumi 6-9 Kinboshi
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame KK

TB 13

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 1. Hoshoryu            10
 2. Kotozakura        12 
 
3. Daiseizan            MK

 4. Wakaikari            KK
 5. Onosato              12
 6. Asanowaka         MK
 7. Shiroma               KK
 8. Kaigo                    KK
 9. Kiyonohana         MK
10. Hiradoumi          7
11. Kotoshoho         MK
12. Wakatakakage  KK
13. Onokatsu           KK
14. Tochitaikai         MK
15. Nabatame          KK
TB:                            13

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 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 12-3
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana KK
10. Hiradoumi MK
11. Kotoshoho MK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame MK

TB 10

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Posted (edited)

 1. Hoshoryu 12-3
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan MK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma MK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana KK
10. Hiradoumi 6-9
11. Kotoshoho MK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu MK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame MK

TB 15

Edited by WAKATAKE

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 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 12-3
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana KK
10. Hiradoumi 8-7
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame KK

TB 13

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1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 9-6
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma MK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana MK
10. Hiradoumi 8-7
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame KK

TB 13

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1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 8-7
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo KK
 9. Kiyonohana KK
10. Hiradoumi 8-7
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame KK

TB 16

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 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Asanowaka MK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana KK
10. Hiradoumi 5-10
11. Kotoshoho MK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai MK
15. Nabatame MK

TB 12

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1. Hoshoryu 10 - 5
 2. Kotozakura 11 - 4
 3. Daiseizan MK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 12 - 3
 6. Asanowaka KK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana MK
10. Hiradoumi 6 - 9
11. Kotoshoho MK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame KK

TB 12

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Asanowaka MK
 7. Shiroma KK
 8. Kaigo MK
 9. Kiyonohana MK
10. Hiradoumi 7-8
11. Kotoshoho MK
12. Wakatakakage KK
13. Onokatsu KK
14. Tochitaikai KK
15. Nabatame MK

TB 11

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 1. Hoshoryu           10
 2. Kotozakura        11
 3. Daiseizan                KK
 4. Wakaikari                KK
 5. Onosato             12
 6. Asanowaka                  MK
 7. Shiroma                  KK
 8. Kaigo                             MK
 9. Kiyonohana                  MK
10. Hiradoumi                   MK
11. Kotoshoho           KK
12. Wakatakakage    KK
13. Onokatsu             KK
14. Tochitaikai           KK
15. Nabatame                   MK

TB 11

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10 Hoshoryu
11 Kotozakura
+ Daiseizan
- Wakaikari
12 Onosato
+ Asanowaka
- Shiroma
- Kaigo
- Kiyonohana
MK Hiradoumi
- Kotoshoho
+ Wakatakakage
+ Onokatsu
+ Tochitaikai
- Nabatame

TB 11
 

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Time to start rounding up the Nagoya results...here are the selection stats:

Player Hosho K'zakura Dais W'ika Onosato Asano Shiro Kaigo Kiyo Hirado K'sho W'kage Onok Tochi Naba   TB   Cons
Yarimotsu - 10-5 - 10-5 - + - 11-4 + + - - - MK - + + - + 11 1.61
Fashiritētā - 10-5 + 11-4 + + + 12-3 + + - - - MK + + + + + 13 1.33
Profomisakari - 10-5 + 12-3 - + + 12-3 - + + - - MK - + + - + 13 1.88
ryafuji + 11-4 + 12-3 + - - 11-4 + + - + - MK - + + + - 10 1.59
WAKATAKE + 12-3 - 10-5 - - - 11-4 + - - + - MK - + - + - 15 2.13
Hakuryuho + 11-4 + 11-4 + + + 12-3 + + - + + 8-7 + + + + + 13 1.75
Holleshoryu - 9-6 + 11-4 + + - 9-6 + - - - + 8-7 + + + + + 13 1.66
Jejima - 8-7 - 8-7 + + - 8-7 + + + + + 8-7 + + + + + 16 1.84
Oskanohana - 10-5 - 10-5 + + - 11-4 - + - + - MK - + + - - 12 1.71
Athenayama - 10-5 + 11-4 - - + 12-3 + + - - - MK - + + + + 12 1.46
Bunbukuchagama - 10-5 - 10-5 + - - 11-4 - + - - - MK - + + + - 11 1.54
chishafuwaku - 10-5 + 11-4 + + + 12-3 - + - - - MK + + + + - 11 1.49
Asashosakari - 10-5 + 11-4 + - + 12-3 + - - - - MK - + + + - 11 1.54
  3:10 8:5 9:4 8:5 6:7 9:4 10:3 2:11 5:8 3:10 5:8 13:0 12:1 10:3 7:6    
Results - (KK) - (KK) + + - (KK) - - - - + + + + - -    


We entered play with 14 points up for grabs after the predictably all-KK picks for Wakatakakage.

The two ozeki on the ballot were provided with matching 11-4 targets, same as in Natsu basho, but Hoshoryu's support for higher records has significantly dwindled; the Kotozakura selections came in virtually identical to last time. Sekiwake debutant Onosato was bumped up big-time, his new target was set at 12-3 (after 10-5). Shin-komusubi Hiradoumi, unsurprisingly, attracted no choices higher than 8-7, and even that only by a minority of entrants.

Fashiritētā and chishafuwaku have posted the most similar entries, sharing all picks except on Asanowaka and Nabatame. The most diverging choices all center around WAKATAKE's ballot, which only has four slots in common with Profomisakari and five each with chishafuwaku and Fashiritētā. It won't come as a surprise at this point that WAKATAKE's picks are also the most unusual overall, while Fashiritētā has the most average lineup with minority votes only on the highly contested Onosato and Kotoshoho slots.

The tie-breaker choices are largely in the 11 to 13 range, with single outlier votes for 10, 15 and 16.

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Day 7

This edition of LKS kicked off with two decisions at the earliest possible opportunity, but only one rikishi was able to celebrate: Daiseizan achieved a quick 4-0 to earn his 10th straight kachikoshi very close to the paid ranks, while formerly salaried Asanowaka started 0-4 into Nagoya basho.

Both rikishi had been selected for kachikoshi by a majority of entrants, so only a relatively small number managed to pick up both points. The first standings:

Day 7:
2/15 Decisions, TB 1-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 2 11
1 chishafuwaku 2 11
3 Oskanohana 2 12
4 ryafuji 1 10
5 Asashosakari 1 11
6 Fashiritētā 1 13
6 Hakuryuho 1 13
6 Holleshoryu 1 13
6 Profomisakari 1 13
10 Jejima 1 16
11 Yarimotsu 0 11
12 Athenayama 0 12
13 WAKATAKE 0 15

 

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Day 8

No news here.

Day 9

A first big surprise of the basho: While Onosato's 12-3 target may have been a longshot to start with, few people will have expected him to have four losses by Day 9 already. But he did, so the players who predicted fewer than 12 wins scored the point on that slot.

Away from the ballot the first rikishi earned his entry to the next LKS edition: Ukrainian hope Aonishiki only needed five bouts to secure the next, fifth KK of his young career.

Two players remained perfect for now:

Day 9:
3/15 Decisions, TB 2-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 3 11
2 Oskanohana 3 12
3 ryafuji 2 10
4 chishafuwaku 2 11
5 Holleshoryu 2 13
6 Jejima 2 16
7 Asashosakari 1 11
7 Yarimotsu 1 11
9 Fashiritētā 1 13
9 Hakuryuho 1 13
9 Profomisakari 1 13
12 WAKATAKE 1 15
13 Athenayama 0 12

 

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Day 10

Early kachikoshi for ozeki Kotozakura, and a good shot at achieving his 11-4 target eventually. Two other rikishi didn't fare so well: Sophomore juryo Tochitaikai has found things rather more difficult than in his division debut, and our lowest-ranked balloter Kiyonohana finally hit a snag following four straight 4-3's, ending his overall KK streak at 5.

Only two double scores on this day, but both players were too far back to join the lead:

Day 10:
5/15 Decisions, TB 3-16
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 4 11
2 Oskanohana 4 12
3 chishafuwaku 3 11
3 Yarimotsu 3 11
5 Holleshoryu 3 13
5 Profomisakari 3 13
7 ryafuji 2 10
8 Asashosakari 2 11
9 Fashiritētā 2 13
10 Jejima 2 16
11 Athenayama 1 12
12 Hakuryuho 1 13
13 WAKATAKE 1 15

 

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Posted (edited)

Day 11

Another ozeki KK with Hoshoryu, and again also two scoring results: Wakatakakage achieved the unanimously expected kachikoshi, but juryo newcomer Nabatame fell to an early MK.

No change at the top of the standings, but the pursuit group was severely decimated:

Day 11:
7/15 Decisions, TB 5-15
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 6 11
2 Oskanohana 6 12
3 chishafuwaku 5 11
4 ryafuji 4 10
5 Asashosakari 4 11
5 Yarimotsu 4 11
7 Holleshoryu 4 13
7 Profomisakari 4 13
9 Fashiritētā 3 13
10 WAKATAKE 3 15
11 Jejima 3 16
12 Athenayama 2 12
13 Hakuryuho 2 13

 

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 12

The first sanyaku-ranked rikishi on the ballot achieved his target; it's Hiradoumi and it was somewhat easier because it was only 8 wins, but of course his target was only so low since relatively little was expected of his tournament campaign; just three entrants predicted the continuation of his kachikoshi streak. Two divisions down, a pair of talents fell to makekoshi in Kaigo (largely expected) and Shiroma (largely not).

It's been quiet about the off-ballot 4-KK group to this point; all three rikishi not named Aonishiki find themselves 3-3 before the final round of matches.

One fortunate player picked up all three points on this difficult day, three others managed to score twice. Both leaders were among the large group that just got one choice right, but so was their immediate pursuer, so only the day's top scorer managed to catch up:

Day 12:
10/15 Decisions, TB 6-13
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 7 11
2 Oskanohana 7 12
3 Holleshoryu 7 13
4 Asashosakari 6 11
4 chishafuwaku 6 11
6 ryafuji 5 10
7 Yarimotsu 5 11
8 WAKATAKE 5 15
9 Fashiritētā 4 13
9 Hakuryuho 4 13
9 Profomisakari 4 13
12 Jejima 4 16
13 Athenayama 3 12


Still in play: Hoshoryu 9-3 (needs 11-4), Kotozakura 8-4 (needs 11-4), Wakaikari 3-3, Kotoshoho 6-6, and Onokatsu 7-5.

With five slots open, it's time to take a look at the championship possibilities. Six players can still win the yusho, although the three current leaders are heavily favoured. Asashosakari, ryafuji and WAKATAKE are the other contenders, but they are reliant on certain tie-breaking scenarios; only the leaders can all still win outright.

  • Holleshoryu will win outright in any of the 8 scenarios that involve Kotoshoho reaching KK and Kotozakura hitting his target.
  • Oskanohana will need the opposite results for those two rikishi, and additionally KK for Wakaikari, in order to win those 4 scenarios.
  • Both of them will tie in 8 other scenarios that involve a Wakaikari KK, with both in line to win half of the ensuing tie-breaks (the details are rather messy; it's not simply each player winning 4 scenarios).

That's 20 of 32 possibilities covered. The rest all have a Wakaikari MK as the lowest common denominator:

  • Bunbukuchagama will be the outright winner in 6 of 8 scenarios that see Kotozakura fail to reach 11 wins. WAKATAKE will be able to tie up the score in the other two, and would also win most (but not all) possible tie-breaks.
  • The final four scenarios see Kotozakura reaching his target and Kotoshoho going MK. Asashosakari and Bunbukuchagama would be tied in all four of them, with ryafuji additionally featuring in two and WAKATAKE in one. Only Asashosakari and ryafuji would have opportunities to prevail in the tie-breaking here.

So, a lot can turn on Wakaikari's final result which alone has the power to eliminate either two or four contenders.

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Day 13

Shortly before the start of the day's action, word came down that Hoshoryu would have to withdraw from the tournament due to an injury sustained in his Day 12 match against Kotozakura. Between the fusenpai and the lack of a scheduled match for Day 14, it sadly became impossible for him to reach his LKS target of 11-4. WAKATAKE and ryafuji, who were among the few entrants to predict 11+ wins, were eliminated from the yusho race.

As an aside, Onosato secured his kachikoshi with the fusen victory, so he remains part of LKS. His target record campaign had already ended back on Day 9 as noted above.

Actual Day 13 dohyo activity saw Onokatsu win to achieve his 5th straight kachikoshi and an impending promotion to the top division. All four remaining yusho candidates had projected that outcome, so no substantial change to the race here.

And finally: Kotozakura surprisingly lost for the third consecutive day, dropped to 8-5 and was no longer able to hit his 11-win target. That knocked out Asashosakari's last route to the yusho, and also killed off nearly all chances for Holleshoryu.

Day 13:
13/15 Decisions, TB 9-13
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 10 11
2 Oskanohana 10 12
3 Holleshoryu 9 13
4 Asashosakari 8 11
4 chishafuwaku 8 11
4 Yarimotsu 8 11
7 Jejima 7 16
8 ryafuji 6 10
9 Fashiritētā 6 13
9 Profomisakari 6 13
11 WAKATAKE 6 15
12 Athenayama 5 12
13 Hakuryuho 5 13


Still in play: Wakaikari 3-3, Kotoshoho 7-6

In fact, Holleshoryu would have been out entirely as well if off-ballot Higonoumi hadn't collected his last-minute kachikoshi on this day. His KK kept the possibility of a TB 13 finish alive, which Holleshoryu now needed as part of all-around perfect results:

  • Makekoshi by Wakaikari means an outright yusho for Bunbukuchagama, regardless of Kotoshoho's finish.
  • KK by Wakaikari plus MK by Kotoshoho is an outright yusho for Oskanohana.
  • KK for both Wakaikari and Kotoshoho leaves Oskanohana and Holleshoryu tied, with Oskanohana prevailing on tie-breaks unless both off-ballot rikishi Nishikinoryu and Kotokuzan finish 4-3 to push the TB to 13 for Holleshoryu.

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Day 14

The LKS-relevant action started all the way down in sandanme, where Nishikinoryu did not manage to secure his entry to the Aki basho ballot. His MK ended Holleshoryu's hopes for the yusho by putting the TB range out of his reach.

And much later in the day, a somewhat surprising kachikoshi for Kotoshoho. It was predicted by only a minority of LKS players - not including both remaining yusho contenders, so neither got an edge from this.

The penultimate standings:

Day 14:
14/15 Decisions, TB 10-12
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 10 11
2 Oskanohana 10 12
3 Holleshoryu 10 13
4 chishafuwaku 9 11
5 Asashosakari 8 11
5 Yarimotsu 8 11
7 Jejima 8 16
8 Fashiritētā 7 13
9 ryafuji 6 10
10 Hakuryuho 6 13
10 Profomisakari 6 13
10 WAKATAKE 6 15
13 Athenayama 5 12


And the race goes down to the wire. When Wakaikari was not scheduled for the Day 13-15 makushita division matches after Day 12, it was all but certain that he would have his final bout of the tournament against a juryo opponent, but the day was still open. It ended up being senshuraku, facing shin-juryo Nabatame. A win for Wakaikari = yusho for Oskanohana (and yusho-doten for Holleshoryu), a loss = yusho for Bunbukuchagama (and regular jun-yusho for the other two).

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Posted (edited)

Day 15

The Nagoya LKS concluded with appearances by two makushita rikishi in juryo matches. Wakaikari and off-ballot Kotokuzan would have faced off against each other if not for this scheduling, so now they both had the opportunity to pick up another kachikoshi. However, Kotokuzan was unable to secure his winning record against Chiyosakae (and most likely missed out on a return to the paid ranks because of it). Wakaikari, on the other hand, came through against Nabatame to run his debut KK streak to 9 basho. And with that, the Nagoya 2024 LKS yusho winner is...rookie Oskanohana! The last time a new player immediately won the title was all the way back in Natsu 2015. (Two others managed to tie for the leading score and earned yusho-doten since then.)

Holleshoryu takes runner-up honours, edged out by Oskanohana on brackets after they missed on the TB - both got Hoshoryu right, but only the winner also had the correct pick for Kotozakura.

The final standings:

Day 15:
15/15 Decisions, TB 11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Oskanohana 11 12
2 Holleshoryu 11 13
3 Bunbukuchagama 10 11
3 chishafuwaku 10 11
5 Yarimotsu 9 11
6 Jejima 9 16
7 Asashosakari 8 11
8 Fashiritētā 8 13
9 Hakuryuho 7 13
9 Profomisakari 7 13
11 ryafuji 6 10
11 WAKATAKE 6 15
13 Athenayama 5 12

One of the most-selected TB values turned out correct this time, providing no less than four players with an extra win for the banzuke.

Hard luck for ryafuji and WAKATAKE who fell from outside yusho contenders to deep in makekoshi territory over the final three days.


The new ballot for Aki 2024:

 1. Hoshoryu       16
 2. Kotozakura     15
 3. Daiseizan      10
 4. Wakaikari       9*
 5. Onosato         8*
    Asanowaka       5
    Shiroma         5**
    Kaigo           5
    Kiyonohana      5
 6. Hiradoumi       5
 7. Kotoshoho       5
 8. Wakatakakage    5
 9. Onokatsu        5*
    Tochitaikai     4
    Nabatame        4
10. Aonishiki       5*
11. Higonoumi       5
---
12. Abi             4
13. Fujiseiun       4

Two interesting 4-KK sekitori additions for next time with the ever unpredictable Abi and the unknown quantity Fujiseiun.

Lack of kyujo permitting, we'll be playing with 5 sanyaku rikishi for the first time since Haru 2023.

Edited by Asashosakari
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