Promotion/Demotion Discussion

[Reonito 1,297]

18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Maybe they could keep Takerufuji in Makuuchi instead of Nishikifuji?

Would be awesome, but I don't think they'll do it, given their general treatment of full absences plus the fact that they're two wins apart by the numbers (3.5 ranks).

[Reonito 1,297]

What are they going to do about M2? The first KK after the two komusubi-apparent and Meisei is 8-7 M7 Mitakeumi!

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

Is there a discussion in one of the forums about whether or not the "anti-climactic" final match kicked off a yokozuna run?

[Reonito 1,297]

5 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Is there a discussion in one of the forums about whether or not the "anti-climactic" final match kicked off a yokozuna run?

nope, and please don't start one 

[Reonito 1,297]

My first drafted landed Asanoyama all the way down at M13, but that's way too low, isn't it?

[Asashosakari 18,669]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

nope, and please don't start one 

I know somebody "analytical" with a Reddit and Twitter account who's definitely going to write something to indicate a possibility of Kotonowaka Kotozakura getting promoted with 15 wins next time. So yeah, that's going to be covered elsewhere for sure, no need for it here.

Edited May 26 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,297]

6 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Kiryuko - Kazekeno - Daiseizan - Kitaharima - Kotokuzan - Otsuji - Yoshii - Wakaikari - Oshoumi - Akua - Satorufuji

Yeah, whichever of these 11 misses out will be very unlucky. Personally, after today, I hope it's Akua. Should be either him or Oshoumi, based on past results. I'll be sad if they snub Satorufuji instead.

Edited May 26 by Reonito

[Gurowake 3,875]

39 minutes ago, Reonito said:

What are they going to do about M2? The first KK after the two komusubi-apparent and Meisei is 8-7 M7 Mitakeumi!

Yep, there's nothing else they can do but give him a big promotion.  We'll have to see if that means everyone else with similar records ranked just below him get similar treatment, or if they'll fill in the space with the MKs as soon as possible.  That's one of the big questions for the next banzuke.  The other is what to do with Asanoyama.  Based on how they placed Wakatakakage in the last comparable situation, it certainly seems like he could go down to M13, but that low placement last year was rather unusual, and there's a good spot to put him in the M10 area (where absent Komusubi were usually before that) so long as you're OK with either Churanoumi or Hokutofuji being pushed down below where they would naturally end up.

[Akinomaki 39,551]

2 hours ago, Morningstar said:

The big question for me is will they count last times result for Onosato as part of an Ozeki run or not. Although he was M5 he did face all the named ranks who available and got a Jun-Yusho out of it. If Kirishima is healthy and gets his ten, we could see five Ozeki with hopefully at least one on a strong Yokozuna run in September. That would be interesting. Especially if Wakatakakage is tearing it up making it back to the top.

Officially no ozeki end-round run next basho, this basho was the start of the 3 basho ozeki run: the new banzuke boss Takadagawa emphasized that basho below sanyaku don't count (we know they do, but officially they don't): "One has to win double digits at sanyaku"  http://www.sanspo.com/article/20240526-DNCJSJJLFFIGDNR64VF2IB6BHM/

[Koorifuu 860]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I don't understand how "early formalities of juryo promotees" has much to do with it.  Are there any such formalities done before the banzuke is created?  Kiryuko would definitely get the spot if there's one open.

 

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

That would need to happen really fast. 

So I infer that the banzuke is wholly decided in a few days, and not just who the new/returning sekitori will be. I should've known that, but for some reason I didn't.

Edited May 26 by Koorifuu

[Gurowake 3,875]

11 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

 

So I infer that the banzuke is wholly decided in a few days, and not just who the new/returning sekitori will be. I should've known that, but for some reason I didn't.

Yes, the entire banzuke is decided on Wednesday. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,374]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Takerufuji(0-0 M6e) J1 Onokatsu(13-2 J12e)

I do hope this is right and that both men are fit (and that there are not an odd number of injuries in maku'uchi), because this would be what good ole Jim Ross used to call an absolute slobberknocker to kick off juryo in Nagoya.

[Asashosakari 18,669]

43 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Yeah, whichever of these 11 misses out will be very unlucky. Personally, after today, I hope it's Akua. Should be either him or Oshoumi, based on past results. I'll be sad if they snub Satorufuji instead.

If it's between the two makekoshi, it should be Akua who's out. 5-10 almost never falls below 3-4, even in closer situations: Query. The sole two cases in that list where it did were after 2010.07 and 2011.09.

[bettega 422]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

 How many wins does Onosato need?  I don't think setting a specific target is really the right way to look at it.  I think if he wins the Yusho again they'll have to promote him, even if it is with 11 wins, but I'm unsure of whether 12 without at least a playoff loss would be enough, being only 35 wins starting from M5 where we can discount probably half his matches as being against non-joi rikishi, which probably should benefit him by at least 3-4 wins compared to someone in sanyaku, making it not quite hit the standard.  As I mentioned elsewhere earlier, I think the M5 basho can be totally disregarded, and they'll promote him to Ozeki only if his last two basho are worthy of Yokozuna promotion had he already been Ozeki.  That means two Yusho in a row, maybe one playoff loss and a Yusho, or at least 25 wins in those two basho plus the one Yusho he already has.

21 wins as Sekiwake in two bashos will be more than enough, I think, with consistent bouts 

[Gurowake 3,875]

21 minutes ago, bettega said:

21 wins as Sekiwake in two bashos will be more than enough, I think, with consistent bouts 

I don't think there's any dispute over that.  People were discussing what might be required for promotion after next basho, not after Aki.

[Yamanashi 3,689]

13 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

People were discussing what might be required for promotion after next basho, not after Aki

I think 16 wins ought to do it ... seriously.

[Reonito 1,297]

6 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

I think 16 wins ought to do it ... seriously.

If only he had any heya-mates in Makuuchi...

[Kishinoyama 582]

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

...... to indicate a possibility of Kotonowaka .....

Kotozakura?

[Asashosakari 18,669]

12 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

Kotozakura?

Dang, it was only a matter of time. Fixed.

[Kishinoyama 582]

1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

Dang, it was only a matter of time. Fixed.

It happens even to the best my friend.

[maglor 122]

My guess is that Onosato needs either 13 wins or a yusho, and preferably both, to have real chances at promotion. I think it's very difficult for them to debt 11-12Y-13Y, but they have denied 35 wins from M5(with no yushos) previously 

[Katooshu 3,083]

Anyone ever win consecutive basho in sanyaku and not been promoted? He'd be performing at yokozuna level if he won again in July. 

Edited May 27 by Katooshu

[Reonito 1,297]

9 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Anyone ever win consecutive basho in sanyaku and not been promoted? He'd be performing at yokozuna level if he won again in July. 

No one's ever had consecutive yusho without being ranked ozeki at least for the second basho, period. Futabayama and Terunofuji are the only ones to win consecutive yusho at S/O.

Edited May 27 by Reonito

[Morningstar 117]

2 hours ago, maglor said:

My guess is that Onosato needs either 13 wins or a yusho, and preferably both, to have real chances at promotion. I think it's very difficult for them to debt 11-12Y-13Y, but they have denied 35 wins from M5(with no yushos) previously 

Short of a Yusho or a high scoring playoff loss, I think it will really depend on how the Ozeki and Yokozuna situation looks. If Takakeisho gets a losing record and Kirishima does not get his ten wins, and Terunofuji is still out, they may promote him just to shore up the top ranks and hopefully get another Yokozuna sooner rather than later. However, if they are looking strong, then they will probably wait and see how things turn out in September. 

[Yamanashi 3,689]

9 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

Short of a Yusho or a high scoring playoff loss, I think it will really depend on how the Ozeki and Yokozuna situation looks. If Takakeisho gets a losing record and Kirishima does not get his ten wins, and Terunofuji is still out, they may promote him just to shore up the top ranks and hopefully get another Yokozuna sooner rather than later. However, if they are looking strong, then they will probably wait and see how things turn out in September. 

That's why I joked about 16 wins.  Onosato was great, but only half of San'yaku showed up.