Math The Banzuke Natsu 2024

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I was planning to do this much sooner, posting a new mid-basho speculative GTB entry, but before I get started - is @Chiyotasuke's official page down for everyone or just me?

I have a mirror of it available to resurface as needed, but I wasn't sure of the status...

[Bunbukuchagama 772]

5 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

is @Chiyotasuke's official page down for everyone or just me?

Down for me too.

[Reonito 1,522]

His H2H site is down too...

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Hmm, I wonder what's going on. Github did take down github.com slash hoshotakamoto last summer without warning and it took about a month for them to decide to go ahead and reinstate it, so this could be one of those situations (but chiyotasuke has a much longer established history with that repo, so I'm not sure). Hope everything is ok there.

I don't have the H2H site or know anything about it but I do have enough mirrored copies of the gtbhelper laying around to create my own banzuke ranking the copies. Without any further ado these are the calculated placements of the rikishi before the start of Day 10. Apologies to Fujiseiun who is hopefully fighting his way straight back into Juryo.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Here's a hasty unpacking of the stacks. I noticed that I had failed to move Onokatsu to 8-1, so 5-2 represents his record from the previous basho. Hakuoho should also have the rest of his losses factored in if I was being consistent with my usual practice. I was prepared to start allowing overdemotions this month since the banzuke makers have made it clear that they are more than ok with overdemoting, at the expense of my mocked GTB score. However with all the injuries causing rikishi to pull out of this tournament, I won't be surprised if we make it through the next exercise with zero overdemotions.

If I get a day 11 banzuke out after tonight, I'll be sure to factor Fujiseiun into the equation.

[Chiyotasuke 310]

1 hour ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Hmm, I wonder what's going on. Github did take down github.com slash hoshotakamoto last summer without warning and it took about a month for them to decide to go ahead and reinstate it, so this could be one of those situations (but chiyotasuke has a much longer established history with that repo, so I'm not sure). Hope everything is ok there.

I don't have the H2H site or know anything about it but I do have enough mirrored copies of the gtbhelper laying around to create my own banzuke ranking the copies. Without any further ado these are the calculated placements of the rikishi before the start of Day 10. Apologies to Fujiseiun who is hopefully fighting his way straight back into Juryo.

What happened was my Github account got hacked into somehow and (due to my weak password?) and made it fork a ton of repos. And because of that the account got flagged and it became private and therefore it can't deploy webpages. Today I sent an e-mail to Github support asking for reinstatement. But if it's gonna take a month for that to happen, I guess I'll create a new account and prepare it for the next GTB.

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

Hacking the coders  - what has the world come to?

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

7 hours ago, Chiyotasuke said:

What happened was my Github account got hacked into somehow and (due to my weak password?) and made it fork a ton of repos. And because of that the account got flagged and it became private and therefore it can't deploy webpages. Today I sent an e-mail to Github support asking for reinstatement. But if it's gonna take a month for that to happen, I guess I'll create a new account and prepare it for the next GTB.

Well, that's a huge bummer. On the other hand it's good to hear you didn't have a bad day and decide to take all your stuff down. Hakkeyoi!

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Possibly motivated by my day 9 mistakes, as well as the dearth of 5-5 records, I decided to go ahead and fill out the banzuke post-day 10.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

The day 10 stacks unpacked to something like this. I had to fix Shirokuma's position that was probably the result of an errant click-and-drag.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I probably meant to slot Nabatame in Ms1e -- interesting clustering of Nabatame, Kiryuko, Kazekeno, and Fujiseiun (although I doubt there will be any ambiguity over their final ordering after 7 days of competition).

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Stacks after day 11. I know it's not the first day I've had Shonnanoumi ahead of Gonoyama but it gives me a chuckle when comparing* their banzuke luck since they came up from Juryo-1.

* with the acknowledgment that banzuke luck is a self-correcting system so Shonannoumi had harder competition in each basho than his record from the previous basho would predict.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Unstacking them, I decided to entertain the prospect of a 4-sekiwake lineup since Daieisho is looking pretty strong (he did also win 5 out of 6 KK at Sekiwake in recent memory, even if that's not supposed to be factored in). As a result the promotions and lack of demotions below S look pretty generous and should be taken with several grains of salt.

Once you get to Juryo, of course, the effect is nullified, and once again everything felt pretty generous, but in this case the seeding outcomes are actually plausible since they don't rely on any unlikely assumptions (of course what we're used to seeing is that the top division demotees parachute in at the expense of those returning to Juryo, so Mitoryu, Takerufuji, Tsurugisho, and Tomokaze should expect better treatment than I'm giving them).

When I reached the bottom, there was a big gap, so I started filling in Fujiseiun, Kiryuko et al but then decided the more likely case is that Tsushimanada at 6-9 or Kazekeno at 7-8 would get to stay, so those took precedence over, in this case, Kiryuko.

[Reonito 1,522]

50 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

the more likely case is that Tsushimanada at 6-9 or Kazekeno at 7-8 would get to stay, so those took precedence over, in this case, Kiryuko.

Kiryuko at 5-2 would certainly be ahead of them; even at 4-3 I'm pretty sure he'd be ahead of a 7-8 J14w

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

welp, today I learned there has only been a single 7-8 J14w since I started following the sport (and I don't remember this rikishi)

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Day 12 stacks .. don't worry I'm not keeping 8-4 Daieisho on the Sekiwake line...

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I unstacked them. The 3-3s created some congestion in the makushita joi -- we'll get some clarity when the final records come back.

[Sumo Spiffy 580]

@Chiyotasuke @Hoshotakamoto Chiyo, I'm sorry to hear about you getting hacked, that sucks. It also makes me wonder, how does one make a copy of this? I'm not a coder on a level where I could make this, but I grasp how it works, and if I have it I should be able to make it go so we have more backup versions.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

@Chiyotasuke @Hoshotakamoto Chiyo, I'm sorry to hear about you getting hacked, that sucks. It also makes me wonder, how does one make a copy of this? I'm not a coder on a level where I could make this, but I grasp how it works, and if I have it I should be able to make it go so we have more backup versions.

You just fork the github repo, which is a single button click. The way it works with git is you have infinite backup history unless you remove save states on purpose so for example it would be very easy for me to recreate what Chiyo had up on his site on November 5th 2022. The only way that all of this can go missing is if Chiyo and I simultaneously go off the grid.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Here are the stacks after day 15, taking advantage of the excellent UI refresh from @Chiyotasuke

I've placed Onosato's name above Abi because of the 2 win discrepancy, but I'll unpack them in the opposite direction based on my hunch that Abi will receive a promotion. Likewise Hiradoumi at S2e is just an acknowledgment that 3 ranks above M2 is Sekiwake, even though it's extremely rare that this "3 rank" promotion comes to fruition (we all know that the only way to get to Sekiwake with a 9-6 is to start at M6e).

After I do this preliminary exercise I'll abandon the top division and potentially make the effort to do a makushita banzuke that is consistent with the promotions from the previous basho.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Here's the last thing I'll post for the top division. Very interesting possibilities for Wakamotoharu and Mitakeumi... after this the focus is on Juryo and below

[Reonito 1,522]

11 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Here's the last thing I'll post for the top division. Very interesting possibilities for Wakamotoharu and Mitakeumi... after this the focus is on Juryo and below

If WTK is that high and Asanoyama is that low, I'll eat my hat, but otherwise it's very similar to my first draft.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

If WTK is that high and Asanoyama is that low, I'll eat my hat, but otherwise it's very similar to my first draft.

I'm willing to concede that Asanoyama will not drop this low :)

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I haven't even seen the new banzuke and the only thing I know about my official submission (which was substantially different from what I posted above) is that it was 8-7, so I'll live-react to the 3-way discrepancies as I scan from top to bottom...

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

On 26/05/2024 at 12:14, Hoshotakamoto said:

Here's the last thing I'll post for the top division. Very interesting possibilities for Wakamotoharu and Mitakeumi... after this the focus is on Juryo and below

Starting from the top -- I left everything where I think the correct outcomes would be, down through Meisei and Atamifuji.

I got flustered by the situation with Mitakeumi / Takanosho / Kotoshoho (see above where I have Mitakeumi and Takanosho 4 rows apart) and I played with moving Wakamotoharu up and down. Ultimately I got radical and pushed Shonannoumi up to M2e and put Wakamotoharu in M2w, with Mitakeumi falling next to Takanosho on the M4 line. Feels unlikely that Shonannoumi is actually M2e. Let's do the reveal....

and my initial intuition (above) was correct. Wakamotoharu in M2e (which still feels crazy) and Mitakeumi in M2w. So I collect my 22 free points down through M1e and throw away 3 out of 4 points I should have had at M2.

Math: 26/26, Official: 23/26 (Y to M2w)