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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2024

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An extremely short ballot, and with the announcement of Takerufuji's kyujo it has become even shorter. (He would have been in slot 3 following Kotozakura.) I hope you'll give it a shot anyway!

1. Hoshoryu       14  [score?]
2. Kotozakura     13  [score?]
3. Daiseizan       8
4. Wakaikari       7*
5. Onosato         6*  [score?]
6. Haruyama        6*
7. Tokihayate      5
8. Anosho          5*
9. Takashoki       5

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 9 guys up there and the further 7 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (6 'veterans' + newcomer Shiroma), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 16. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 8 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Hoshoryu W-L
2. Kotozakura W-L
3. Daiseizan KKMK
4. Wakaikari KKMK
5. Onosato W-L
6. Haruyama KKMK
7. Tokihayate KKMK
8. Anosho KKMK
9. Takashoki KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

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1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Kotozakura 11-4
3. Daiseizan KK
4. Wakaikari KK
5. Onosato 12-3
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate KK
8. Anosho KK
9. Takashoki MK

TB 11

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1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Kotozakura 10-5
3. Daiseizan KK
4. Wakaikari KK
5. Onosato 8-7
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate MK
8. Anosho MK
9. Takashoki MK

TB 9

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
2. Kotozakura 11-4
3. Daiseizan  MK
4. Wakaikari KK
5. Onosato 9-6
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate KK
8. Anosho MK
9. Takashoki MK

TB 10

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1. Hoshoryu 12-3
2. Kotozakura 11-4
3. Daiseizan KK
4. Wakaikari MK
5. Onosato 7-8
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate MK
8. Anosho KK
9. Takashoki MK

TB 10

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
2. Kotozakura 10-5
3. Daiseizan KK
4. Wakaikari KK
5. Onosato 8-7
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate KK
8. Anosho KK
9. Takashoki KK

TB 12

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1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Kotozakura 11-4
3. Daiseizan KK
4. Wakaikari MK
5. Onosato 11-4
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate MK
8. Anosho KK
9. Takashoki KK

TB 10

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1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Kotozakura 10-5
3. Daiseizan KK
4. Wakaikari MK
5. Onosato 10-5
6. Haruyama KK
7. Tokihayate MK
8. Anosho KK
9. Takashoki MK

TB 10

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
2. Kotozakura 11-4
3. Daiseizan MK
4. Wakaikari KK
5. Onosato 9-6
6. Haruyama MK
7. Tokihayate MK
8. Anosho KK
9. Takashoki KK

TB 10

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1. Hoshoryu          11-4
2. Kotozakura       11-4
3. Daiseizan                      KK
4. Wakaikari                      KK
5. Onosato             10-5
6. Haruyama                     KK
7. Tokihayate                             MK
8. Anosho                          KK
9. Takashoki                      KK

TB 9

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11 Hoshoryu
12 Kotozakura
+ Daiseizan
+ Wakaikari
10 Onosato
+ Haruyama
- Tokihayate
+ Anosho
+ Takashoki

TB 9
 

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Posted (edited)

Almost in time this basho...here are the selection stats for LKS Natsu:

Player Hosho K'zakura Daisei Wakaik Onosato Haruya Tokiha Anosho Takash   TB   Cons
Athenayama + 11-4 + 11-4 + + + 12-3 + + + - 11 1.28
Yarimotsu + 11-4 - 10-5 + + - 8-7 + - - - 9 1.46
Ryoshishokunin - 10-5 - 9-6 + - - 9-6 - - + + 8 1.57
Holleshoryu - 10-5 + 11-4 - + - 9-6 + + - - 10 1.82
WAKATAKE + 12-3 + 11-4 + - - MK + - + - 10 1.14
Jejima - 10-5 - 10-5 + + - 8-7 + + + + 12 1.46
Hakuryuho + 11-4 + 11-4 + - + 11-4 + - + + 10 1.06
Profomisakari + 12-3 + 12-3 + - + 10-5 + - + + 9 1.06
Bunbukuchagama + 11-4 - 10-5 + - + 10-5 + - + - 10 1.28
ryafuji - 10-5 + 11-4 - + - 9-6 - - + + 10 1.62
chishafuwaku + 11-4 + 11-4 + + + 10-5 + - + + 9 0.98
Asashosakari + 11-4 + 12-3 + + + 10-5 + - + + 9 0.98
  8:4 8:4 10:2 7:5 6:6 10:2 3:9 10:2 7:5    
Results ? (KK) ? (KK) + + + - - - -    

 
At least the effective lineup didn't get even shorter after Takerufuji's withdrawal; all slots are in play thanks to no unanimous selections.

Hoshoryu and newly renamed Kotozakura obtained nearly equal support, the sole difference a single 9-6 selection for Kotozakura where Hoshoryu had one more 10-5 instead. The pick distribution meant 11-4 target scores for both, up from 10-5 in Haru in each case. Onosato moved into sanyaku in just his 7th professional tournament, and ended up gaining exactly 50% support for a potential double digit score and thus a 10-5 target.

With just 9 slots to predict it's not a huge surprise that some ballots ended up with identical up/down votes. Asashosakari and chishafuwaku in fact also picked the same tie-breaker value, leaving their 11-4 / 12-3 picks for Kotozakura as the only substantive difference. Hakuryuho and Profomisakari's ballots also worked out the same, but with different TBs for more straight-forward tie-breaking, should it be needed.

The Asashosakari/chishafuwaku duo also produced the most average entry possible by voting with the majority on every slot. Hakuryuho/Profomisakari follow with an alternative Wakaikari selection only. The most unusual predictions were not posted by WAKATAKE for a change; this basho it's Holleshoryu who went against the grain five times, so more than half the ballot. Unsurprisingly Holleshoryu's entry also figures prominently into the list of those pairs of players who came out with the most disagreement. The following have only two slots in common: Holleshoryu with each of Bunbukuchagama, Hakuryuho, Profomisakari and Ryoshishokunin, as well as Athenayama/Ryoshishokunin and Bunbukuchagama/ryafuji.

Most entrants went for TB choices of either 9 or 10 this time. Single selections of 8, 11 and 12 round out the slate.

Edited by Asashosakari
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For the first time in I can't remember how long, nothing of relevance to LKS happened before...

Day 10

The first kachikoshi on the LKS ballot was posted by sanyaku newcomer Onosato, which of course still leaves him two wins away from his 10-5 target.

Day 11

More non-scoring action courtesy of ozeki Kotozakura's KK, rather late as it's leaving just four days to score three more wins towards 11-4. Two off-ballot rikishi failed in their quest for a fifth straight KK - Daishomaru and Tokunomusashi will not be appearing on the July ballot.

Day 12

The third sanyaku-ranked LKS rikishi achieved his kachikoshi as well, but at 8-4 it's quite the uphill battle for Hoshoryu to still finish 11-4 now.

And finally some scores, too: Having gone from mid-jonidan to low makushita, Takashoki's breakout year came to an end, while top prospect Haruyama sees his initial rise scuppered just inside the makushita promotion zone. Neither result was a majority prediction, so the first standings below will start off with less than impressive scores.

In addition another three off-ballot rikishi decided their direction for the next banzuke-making session. Former short-time juryo Asanowaka and newcomer Shiroma will be moving up and also join LKS proper for Nagoya basho, while Suzaki has fallen short of KK number 5.

Day 12:
2/9 Decisions, TB 5-11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Ryoshishokunin 1 8
2 Yarimotsu 1 9
3 Bunbukuchagama 1 10
3 Holleshoryu 1 10
3 ryafuji 1 10
3 WAKATAKE 1 10
7 Athenayama 1 11
8 Asashosakari 0 9
8 chishafuwaku 0 9
8 Profomisakari 0 9
11 Hakuryuho 0 10
12 Jejima 0 12

 

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Posted (edited)

Day 13

10th win for Onosato, so that's his target record achieved. On the other hand, shin-nyumaku Tokihayate had the expected tough time in the top division and is now makekoshi.

Significantly better scoring today with nearly half of us picking up both points, and there's a sole leader:

Day 13:
4/9 Decisions, TB 5-10
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Bunbukuchagama 3 10
2 Ryoshishokunin 2 8
3 Asashosakari 2 9
3 chishafuwaku 2 9
3 Profomisakari 2 9
3 Yarimotsu 2 9
7 Hakuryuho 2 10
7 ryafuji 2 10
7 WAKATAKE 2 10
10 Athenayama 2 11
11 Holleshoryu 1 10
12 Jejima 0 12


Contrary to the naive calculation that goes into the table display, a TB finish of 10 is no longer possible as 3-3 duo Anosho (on the ballot) and Kaigo (off) were set to face each other on Day 14.

And 3-3 is the order of the day, as Anosho is joined in battling for his continued LKS presence by Daiseizan and Wakaikari. They're actually ranked closer together than Anosho and Kaigo are, but managed to get paired up with separate opponents. Beyond the toriteki trio, decisions still await for Hoshoryu (9-4) and Kotozakura (10-3), both aiming to get to 11 wins.

It's usually possible to make some fairly limiting statements about the LKS yusho race at this point with five open decisions, but of course that's still more than half the ballot this time. In fact, everybody except Jejima can still tie for the lead at the finish line, but conversely everybody except Bunbukuchagama and Ryoshishokunin can also still finish bottom of the table.

Thankfully, the list of players who can win the yusho is a little bit shorter, as some have no chance to prevail through tie-breaker scenarios:

  • Three players can still win outright:
    • Bunbukuchagama in 6 of 8 scenarios with: Hoshoryu 11-4, Kotozakura less than 11-4
    • Yarimotsu in the remaining 2 of those scenarios and one other (joint minimum req: Kotozakura less than 11-4, Wakaikari KK, Anosho MK)
    • ryafuji in 3 scenarios (joint minimum req: Hoshoryu 11-4, Daiseizan MK, Anosho KK)
  • Four players including one of the aforementioned can win straight-forward tie-breaks:
    • chishafuwaku will prevail in all 4 scenarios of a 3/4-way tie-break if Hoshoryu and Kotozakura both achieve 11-4 and Wakaikari goes KK
    • Profomisakari will prevail in all 4 scenarios of a 4-way tie-break if Hoshoryu and Kotozakura both achieve 11-4 and Wakaikari goes MK
    • Ryoshishokunin will prevail in 7 scenarios either directly by TB or by bracket playoff, over either just Bunbukuchagama or a much larger 5-way tie (minimum req: only Hoshoryu less than 11-4; various wild combos of the other four slots can assist)
    • ryafuji will prevail in an additional 3 scenarios on brackets, over either Holleshoryu or Holleshoryu+Yarimotsu (joint minimum req: Hoshoryu less than 11-4, Daiseizan and Anosho MK)
  • and 2 super convoluted scenarios (Hoshoryu less than 11-4, Kotozakura 11-4, Daiseizan and Wakaikari KK) can end with no less than three different tie-break winners including one who has no other routes:
    • ryafuji if the TB score is 8
    • chishafuwaku if the TB is 9 and Kotozakura finishes exactly 11-4
    • Asashosakari if the TB is 9 and Kotozakura finishes exactly 12-3

Clear as mud. All in all, that's 7 potential LKS yusho winners at this stage.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Day 14

The first action of the penultimate day, however, featured none of the above, as we started all the way back in sandanme with off-ballot rikishi Kiyonohana who clinched a spot on the next ballot with his 5th straight KK (the last four all by 4-3). That was good news for Asashosakari's (minuscule) yusho hopes as a loss would have killed the TB part of his solitary path to the yusho straight away, while ryafuji lost his chances on that route (however low its importance was).

Next up, the ballot playoff between incumbent Anosho and applicant Kaigo - the latter won to claim the former's spot, so rookie Anosho has hit his personal wall exactly in the middle of makushita for now. Only two entrants had correctly projected that outcome, with Yarimotsu the big winner among the yusho contenders here. All others lost various opportunities, among them all of ryafuji's shots at an outright victory.


And yet more 3-3 deciders later in high makushita:

Wakaikari came through first, securing an appearance in the division's top 5 ranks for July. This result was highly contested both in LKS at large (7 KK / 5 MK picks) as well as among the seven yusho candidates (4 KK / 3 MK). Bunbukuchagama, Profomisakari and Ryoshishokunin were eliminated from the race, ryafuji lost another pathway.

Daiseizan followed suit in the next match, which will not quite be enough to see him promoted to juryo but create an excellent opportunity in two months' time. And that did it for ryafuji's hopes as he was one of just two players who had picked a makekoshi for Daiseizan.


But no, we were not done yet. Ozeki Hoshoryu kept his shot at the 11-4 finish alive by dispatching upstart Oshoma, while Kotozakura was upset by Abi. With no chance for him to get to 12 wins anymore, Asashosakari's yusho quest ended as well.

And just like that, only two challengers remain. More after the standings table.

The yusho race aside, the player of the day was clearly Yarimotsu as the only one to pick up all three points. Half the field had to be content with just one point, the remaining fivesome scored two.

Yesterday's sole leader was deposed in favour of a new one, and after the preceding comments it will be no surprise who it is.

Day 14:
7/9 Decisions, TB 9
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Yarimotsu 5 9
2 Asashosakari 4 9
2 chishafuwaku 4 9
4 Athenayama 4 11
4 Bunbukuchagama 4 10
6 Profomisakari 3 9
7 Hakuryuho 3 10
7 Holleshoryu 3 10
7 ryafuji 3 10
7 Ryoshishokunin 3 8
7 WAKATAKE 3 10
12 Jejima 2 12


The yusho race is down to Yarimotsu and chishafuwaku, and it will be decided by the ozeki clash of Hoshoryu and Kotozakura. With both entering senshuraku on 10-4, only one can still reach their shared 11-4 target score. Both contenders expected Hoshoryu to do it, so it'll all come down to their diverging Kotozakura choice:

  • If Kotozakura loses, Yarimotsu will be the outright winner, with Bunbukuchagama the sole jun-yusho finisher one point behind.
  • If Kotozakura wins, we'll end this LKS edition with a massive six-way tie at the top. Three players will pass the first tie-break via their TB pick: Asashosakari, chishafuwaku and Yarimotsu, the rest are eliminated. His wrong Kotozakura pick would then see Yarimotsu ousted from the bracket playoff, while the other two - you may recall from the selection stats - have entered identical line-ups. The second-closest yusho decision in LKS history (we had one that went to the earlier-entry tie-break) would go chishafuwaku's way thanks to his slightly better Kotozakura prediction.

Good luck, guys!

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Exciting analysis, and in time for it to still provide extra tension to the action. Thanks Asashosakari!

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Posted (edited)

Day 15

The real-world yusho was decided two bouts earlier in favour of phenom Onosato, but the LKS yusho came down to the musubi no ichiban, and an exciting battle between Hoshoryu and Kotozakura ended with the decision going to the latter. And that means the winner is...chishafuwaku! Congrats! It's the yokozuna's 7th overall victory, and he has now won 5 of the last 14 editions.

The final standings:

Day 15:
9/9 Decisions, TB 9
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 5 9
2 Asashosakari 5 9
2 Yarimotsu 5 9
4 Athenayama 5 11
4 Holleshoryu 5 10
4 ryafuji 5 10
7 Profomisakari 4 9
8 Bunbukuchagama 4 10
8 Hakuryuho 4 10
8 Ryoshishokunin 4 8
8 WAKATAKE 4 10
12 Jejima 3 12

As mentioned, three of the six players who ended up tying for the top score also hit with their TB, so the yusho was ultimately decided between them. Asashosakari and Yarimotsu take doten runner-up honours. Profomisakari also collects a banzuke bonus win for the correct TB pick.


The new ballot for Nagoya 2024:

 1. Hoshoryu       15
 2. Kotozakura     14
    Takerufuji      9*
 3. Daiseizan       9
 4. Wakaikari       8*
 5. Onosato         7*
    Haruyama        6*
    Tokihayate      5
    Anosho          5*
    Takashoki       5
 6. Asanowaka       5
 7. Shiroma         5**
 8. Kaigo           5
 9. Kiyonohana      5
---
10. Hiradoumi       4
11. Kotoshoho       4
12. Wakatakakage    4
13. Onokatsu        4*
14. Tochitaikai     4
15. Nabatame        4

Thankfully, big reinforcements are coming in the paid ranks now, and in fact 6 sekitori being on 4-KK streaks is among the highest counts ever. Almost everybody who had a shot at a fourth KK managed to obtain it, the only exception being Asakoryu who fell to MK on the final day. (In addition Kotokuzan did get a KK in the top 5 makushita promotion zone but it wasn't quite enough to become sekitori, so he'll be part of the 4-KK off-ballot extras next time.)

Hiradoumi will additionally bolster the sanyaku ranks with his debut there, though I suspect our win-loss selections for him will end up equating to a regular KK/MK vote.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Posted (edited)

Scores for banzuke purposes:

chishafuwaku 7 (5+Top+TB)
Asashosakari 7 (5+Top+TB)
Yarimotsu 7 (5+Top+TB)
Athenayama 6 (5+Top)
Holleshoryu 6 (5+Top)
ryafuji 6 (5+Top)
Profomisakari 5 (4+TB)
Bunbukuchagama 4
Hakuryuho 4
Ryoshishokunin 4
WAKATAKE 4
Jejima 3

Total: 63 / 12 = 5.25 ---> +2 wins

A pretty odd outcome that the only KK players are those who tied for the most points, but it is what it is. Nice KK/MK split, at least. Profomisakari wasn't helped by the TB bonus win.

This is just the second time following Haru 2016 that the yusho winner's score converts to a record of only 9-6.


The banzuke for Nagoya 2024:

chishafuwaku (Ye 9-6 Y)   Y   ---
Profomisakari (O1e 7-8)   O1  Hakuryuho (O2w 6-9)
Tetsuba (O1w 0-0-15)      O2  Yarimotsu (Se 9-6 D)
Athenayama (Sw 8-7)       S   ryafuji (Ke 8-7)
Holleshoryu (Kw 8-7)      K   Asashosakari (M4e 9-6 D)
Bunbukuchagama (M1e 6-9)  M1  Sakura (M1w kosho)
WAKATAKE (M2w 6-9)        M2  Ryoshishokunin (M3e 6-9)
Jejima (M2e 5-10)         M3  Fashiritētā (M3w kosho)

Haru yusho winner Profomisakari's tsunatori comes to a screeching halt, shin-ozeki Hakuryuho starts off with a makekoshi, and Tetsuba was unfortunately absent for the second straight time so that's an 0-0-15. Yokozuna chishafuwaku was himself makekoshi in March, but came back in style with the yusho. Well done!

Doten finisher Yarimotsu already had a regular jun-yusho in March - that's a combo of records that's usually enough to warrant promotion to ozeki, and while the fact that half the field had the top score somewhat devalues the latest result, the tie-breaker hit pushed the promotion case across the line. So, congrats! It's getting a little bit crowded with four ozeki now, but it appears somewhat likely that the Aki banzuke will have fewer...

Edited by Asashosakari
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Oh, and I nearly forgot to mention it: This month was the 15th anniversary of the game's start back in Natsu 2009. Many thanks to all players past and especially present! (Bow...)

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