Natsu 2024 discussion (results)

[Hakuho Oyakata 6]

Down goes NSK’s wonder boy

[Leoben 121]

Praying for Abi tomorrow to add some excitement to this tournament.

[Katooshu 3,135]

The last thing I want is Abi spoiling another yusho for one of my favourites 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

25 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

The last thing I want is Abi spoiling another yusho for one of my favourites 

The meltdown would be epic. 

[dingo 1,160]

Tamawashi is on the verge of staging an impressive comeback, needing just the final senshuraku win. He got slightly lucky today, but overall great perseverance by the veteran. Speaking of veterans, likewise great stuff from Takarafuji, who still has double digits in reach.

Unfortunately no kachikoshi for Ura after that stellar 6-0 start. 8 losses in a row must be particularly hard for him to take in that context. It seems to me Ura tried to do more power sumo this basho and less tricks, but that didn't quite work out against stronger opposition.

As I thought, Shonannoumi was an easy win for Onosato they're both big and strong, but Onosato's power level when moving forward is really something else. You could see how confident he was already before the tachiai, keeping both hands down long before Shonannoumi. Onosato has ensured a rise to sekiwake next basho, and he might do it in style tomorrow with a yusho. 

Hoshoryu fulfilled his ozeki responsibility perfectly, taking upstart Oshoma out of the yusho race and teaching him a lesson about the upper ranks in the process. 

Kotozakura was awfully close but Abi has lots of experience with last second tawara dodging and that proved to be Kotozakura's downfall. Gotta hand it to Abi, that little tottari at the tawara edge was a very clever move. The yusho is now out of Kotozakura's hands, unless Abi manages to play spoiler twice and defeat Onosato tomorrow. I really hope that doesn't happen though since as mentioned earlier I'd hate to see another weak 11-4 yusho. 

[TheGunbaiHolder 25]

21 minutes ago, dingo said:

Hoshoryu fulfilled his ozeki responsibility perfectly, taking upstart Oshoma out of the yusho race and teaching him a lesson about the upper ranks in the process. 

Would that classify as a Henka? I think so and I am very impressed.

[Akinomaki 39,805]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Sansho prediction now: Onosato ginosho and shukunsho and in case of a straight yusho with a win also kantosho. Oshoma debut kantosho if he wins.

Optional sansho for other yusho winners, Abi kantosho already if he wins, Daieisho only for the yusho 

Daieisho only gets already kachikoshi Kotoshoho, the 4 7-7 are neatly paired against each other - a sansho for Daieisho with just a win is also justified, 2 wins against ozeki and wins against both sekiwake, but I stay with Daieisho only for the yusho - could be shukunsho though, also that for Abi on a win: he also has 2 ozeki wins, like Onosato, all 3 won against the ozeki longest in the yusho race, Abi also with a Hoshoryu win, the other 2 only have Kirishima as 2nd ozeki win, but Onosato also the yokozuna.

Depends on the sansho generosity this time

Edited May 25 by Akinomaki

[RabidJohn 1,665]

Hiradoumi made the Monkey fly - backwards. If ever there was one of those hadouken shots to be had.

I'm on the side of hoping Onosato can beat Abi tomorrow to avoid a 3- or 4-man play-off, but even if he doesn't he's definitely started an ozeki run now. 
If he does win, though... Will he have time to grow a proper oicho-mage in time for his promotion ceremony? Could be as early as July if he does a Terunofuji.

Oshoma's somewhat privileged to go up against an in-form ozeki as a shin-nyumaku, but I've believe yesterday's lesson that even an out-of-form sekiwake is a big step up was equally valuable. He gave me the impression that he was taking it in.

We've commented/moaned about Kotozakura's sumo this time, but today he definitely went forwards...

[Hankegami 412]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm on the side of hoping Onosato can beat Abi tomorrow to avoid a 3- or 4-man play-off, but even if he doesn't he's definitely started an ozeki run now. 
If he does win, though... Will he have time to grow a proper oicho-mage in time for his promotion ceremony? Could be as early as July if he does a Terunofuji.

I wholeheartedly concur, although it is debatable whether Onosato get to Ozeki already after next basho. This would include his 11-4JGK in Haru, where he fought at M5w and faced 8 joi-jin out of 15 matches (here his matches, with the line cut at M4w after Terunofuji's range of opponents on paper). I ran a query about that, and results are not fully encouraging.

Precedents for Maegashira-to-Ozeki runs (here) must be put on context. The lowest placement is even M9e (Minanogawa, 1933.01), but since then the lowest placement went never below M4w, one full rank above Onosato's M5w in Haru. Furthermore, this threshold goes up to M3w (Tochinoshin, 2018.01) if we consider only cases from after 1987 (the Futahaguro-Onokuni time of troubles). But what about unsuccessful runs? A similar query about 33+ runs that did not trigger an Ozeki promotion are even more telling about Onosato's case (here we go). Aside from Tochinoshin's weak 9-6 at M6w (boosted by his follow-up 14-1Y), the first real means for comparison is Kotooshu's 2005 sketch from M5e to S1e. He went 10-5 (M5e), 12-3J (S1e), 13-2D (S1e). He delivered a staggering 35/45, including a doten lost to none less than Asashoryu (here), and yet he had to wait another tournament before being promoted to Ozeki. Let's see his opponents at M5e (here). Kotooshu also faced 8 joi-jin out of 15 days, which could be a pattern. Before him, Wakanohana III was denied an Ozeki spot with a run from M3e in 1993, but it also happened at the height of The 1990s Scare. Further back, Taiho's 1960 run from M6e is equally meaningful and rather close to Onosato. He posted an 11-4 (M6e), 11-4 (S1w), 12-3J (S1w), that is 34/45 in a time when 30 was enough to get Ozeki. Taiho faced 9 joi-jin (here), yet he got no cigar. The other case-studies also look similar.

Long story short, there is a consistent history of denying a short-track promotion to guys who started a 33+ streak from outside the joi, largely because they got a 50% discount on the implicitly demanded "joi treatment". I believe that with those precedents this basho is going to count as the first for a potential Ozeki run from Onosato, to be followed by 10+ performances in Nagoya and Aki. Hence, likely no promotion ceremony before late September. Enough time to grow an oicho?

Edited May 25 by Hankegami

[RabidJohn 1,665]

By 'do a Terunofuji' I'm referring to his 1st promotion where the 13-2J and 12-3Y at sekiwake (yokozuna level performance) overrode the usual 33/45 requirement. The preceding 8-7 at M2 had little to do with it, other than fortuitously catapulting him straight to sekiwake. He was not on an ozeki run until day 14 or 15 when it was announced that the yusho would clinch the promotion.

Similarly with Onosato, a Y at komusubi followed by a Y, D or J at sekiwake could be enough, especially coming on the back of that 11-4J at M5 (which strikes me as superior to 8-7 at M2, btw).

That's best-case scenario, obviously. The current result will be the 1st leg of a conventional 33/45 run otherwise.

Edited May 25 by RabidJohn

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

As long as Hoshoryu and Kotozakura continue to look like reasonably strong ozeki, I doubt they'll rush-promote Onosato short of a double-yusho in May and July. Then I could see them being tempted into it. He'd be the first back-to-back winner since Teru at the end of 2021, and it would absolutely be in the sport's interests to push a guy to ozeki when he's mega-hyped rather than risk doing it after what might be a relatively ho-hum 10-5 in September. Plus, if he can win two straight in the lower sanyaku, it's like... do y'all want another yokozuna or not?

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Wakamotoharu's match relegated to third from the top, before Abi's, contrary to the natural bout order. They like doing that these days.

[junsan 170]

Abi's tsuppari is wasted on someone like Onosato. His best bet is some kinda henka.

[Oskanohana 227]

20 hours ago, Oskanohana said:

As for the yusho, Abi of all people is the wild card. He ought to face both leaders (especially if he wins against Kotozakura), and can ensure a play-off spot for himself with both wins. My body is ready for the havoc.

Blessed "prediction". You're all welcome.

A Daieisho yusho tomorrow would probably be the sneakiest one in history.

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

10 minutes ago, junsan said:

Abi's tsuppari is wasted on someone like Onosato. His best bet is some kinda henka.

Or something like Hiradoumi did?

[Yamanashi 3,728]

23 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Roga is actually good at henka.

We may have found Chiyoshoma's heir.

It was the second part: embarrasses him, then offers his hand up.  Imagine the kintamayamas on that guy!

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

Or something like Hiradoumi did?

I don't think Abi is good at it.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

2 hours ago, junsan said:

Abi's tsuppari is wasted on someone like Onosato. His best bet is some kinda henka.

Or something like Hiradoumi did? 

You mean completely annihilate him with vastly superior speed and technique?

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

Who I want to win in descending order...

1. Hoshoryu (he's the best wrestler left in the basho)

2. Daieisho (just does his brand of sumo and always fights with great spirit. He's no Tamawashi, but It would be good to see him get a second yusho, and enter the "best modern wrestler never to make ozeki" discussion)

3. Abi (see above, but less so. The added twist is that for a lot of us his first yusho was somewhat tainted by the henka he pulled on Takayasu in the play-off)

4. Onosato (he has massive potential and is as strong as a bull elephant who has really been hitting the weights, but I don't see much to get excited about in his sumo)

5. Kotozakura ( I think I have made my views on this fellow pretty clear)

[Benevolance 2,478]

Because it would be way too ridiculous if it went otherwise, Onosato will beat Abi tonight and spare us all from having to watch a tournament that ends with an 11-4 yusho. 

8 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

5. Kotozakura ( I think I have made my views on this fellow pretty clear)

This would be my preferred yusho winner.

[Katooshu 3,135]

I have the opposite view on Onosato. With explosive power and an aggressive style his matches are some of my most anticipated. 

[Gurowake 3,923]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Wakamotoharu's match relegated to third from the top, before Abi's, contrary to the natural bout order. They like doing that these days.

It's like they want to avoid that situation akin to when someone in the last golf pairing is way behind, but since they're short on coverage to show near the end of the day as very few people are still playing, they keep showing the irrelevant guy's strokes in between those of the people that still matter.  Ura vs. Wakamotoharu is just so less interesting than Onosato vs. Abi that it makes sense to swap them.  I just find it odd that the order of the matches is changeable at all and isn't 100% prescribed by rules.

[Reonito 1,335]

6 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

As long as Hoshoryu and Kotozakura continue to look like reasonably strong ozeki, I doubt they'll rush-promote Onosato short of a double-yusho in May and July. Then I could see them being tempted into it. He'd be the first back-to-back winner since Teru at the end of 2021, and it would absolutely be in the sport's interests to push a guy to ozeki when he's mega-hyped rather than risk doing it after what might be a relatively ho-hum 10-5 in September. Plus, if he can win two straight in the lower sanyaku, it's like... do y'all want another yokozuna or not?

I mean, there have never been consecutive yusho from below ozeki, so they could easily say it's literally unprecedented.

[Sakura 1,472]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Who I want to win in descending order...

1. Hoshoryu (he's the best wrestler left in the basho)

Hoshoryu loses too much in the first two thirds of the basho for my liking. It's why I don't choose him in Bench. I can't trust him to win the match-ups he ought to win. 

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Who I want to win in descending order...

I think my order is 1. Onosato (only partly to have a 12-3 scoreline) 2. Hoshoryu 3. Abi 4/5 the other two guys