Haru 2024 Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk

[Wakawakawaka 136]

17 hours ago, Godango said:

Tokushoryu's 14-1 got him from M17 got to M2. You'd have to imagine M3 at best then. 

Terunofuji's 13-2 got him from M17 to M1e.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

I guess if Endo were to retire before the banzuke meeting, there'd be room for Kayo...

I was too lazy to mention it, but Nikkan already had an "Endo has no intention to retire and will go for makuuchi return in May" article up at the time of my juryo guess post. Now, that could just be a smokescreen because some kabu moves are necessary to open up his Kitajin share, but it's reasonably safe to say that if so, everything needed won't be happening in time for the banzuke-making conference.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 hour ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Terunofuji's 13-2 got him from M17 to M1e.

Every banzuke is different.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

2 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Terunofuji's 13-2 got him from M17 to M1e.

If I'd been doing banzuke predictions when Teru got that score, I'd have predicted him at M2W. In retrospect, it's not that surprising he got moved to M1, although it is kind of surprising they pushed him to M1E (which required underpromoting Takanosho for basically no reason). There's no path for Takerufuji to make the same sort of jump. If they wanted to be unbelievably kind, they could jump him to M5W, but any further would require overdemoting Meisei to get him to M5E, then Ura/Oho for M4W/M4E. Never say never, etc., but it's implausible to say the least.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

The main blocker is that Tobizaru "needs" to go to (at least) M3w, and there are candidates with much better claims than his for all five maegashira spots in front of that. Consequently I'm struggling to see how Takerufuji can go any higher than M4e (with a low end expectation of M6w, I guess).

I can already see the shitstorm by the uneducated masses elsewhere if that's indeed what happens, especially if it's not even M4.

Edited March 25 by Asashosakari

[Godango 956]

I was thinking M4 ish. M5 does seem at first glance but then the justification makes sense. 

All this to say I'm one of the great terrible GTB players. 

[Kaito 275]

I wouldn't say Terunofuji ending up at M1e was unsurprising. He calculated to M6w and was placed in front of an 8-7 M2e(!) and 3 others he belonged behind.

Tokushoryu wasn't treated as nicely, considering he had an extra win and still didn't get ahead of an 8-7 M4e. But he did get ahead of an 11-4 M9w, despite calculating 2 ranks behind him.

Whether this Yusho bonus still applies and how strong it'll be is a question mark for me, but I'm not taking it for granted that they ignore it and go with the cleanest option.

[shumitto 418]

How many ranks do you think Shimanoumi will drop with a  5-10 from J9e ? Maybe two ? But he shouldn't worry, though, a solid 8-7 will probably bring him back to Makuuchi. 

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

6 hours ago, Kaito said:

I wouldn't say Terunofuji ending up at M1e was unsurprising. He calculated to M6w and was placed in front of an 8-7 M2e(!) and 3 others he belonged behind.

Tokushoryu wasn't treated as nicely, considering he had an extra win and still didn't get ahead of an 8-7 M4e. But he did get ahead of an 11-4 M9w, despite calculating 2 ranks behind him.

Whether this Yusho bonus still applies and how strong it'll be is a question mark for me, but I'm not taking it for granted that they ignore it and go with the cleanest option.

Teru's placement definitely had "this dude was an ozeki and by god we're getting him back there" vibes. Two of the three he "incorrectly" jumped still got overpromotions, so I can see that logic, but bypassing Takanosho as well was weird. Tokushoryu, obviously, didn't have that type of wind in his sails. Given how Onosato got such an oddball bump last time, it's possible Takerufuji gets a bit of favorable treatment as well, but I'm not even sure there's a reasonable path for him above M5E. After that, the first bumps up would overdemote Ura and/or Oho, one of whom already looks set to be overdemoted by a half-rank. If they want to fast-track the guy in some fashion, leaving him outside the joi (as they did with Onosato) would seem to be a good way to do that. He'll rise faster sitting a couple ranks lower but with a significantly weaker schedule.

4 hours ago, shumitto said:

How many ranks do you think Shimanoumi will drop with a  5-10 from J9e ? Maybe two ? But he shouldn't worry, though, a solid 8-7 will probably bring him back to Makuuchi. 

Two. There are so many gaps around that point that he, once again, managed to do very badly at just the right time.

[Gurowake 3,922]

16 hours ago, Reonito said:

Anybody want to take a shot at the next Makushita joi? @Gurowake @Asashosakari

No.

[Ripe 70]

13 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Terunofuji's 13-2 got him from M17 to M1e.

Terunofuji was also an ex-Ozeki who was almost a sure bet as next Yokozuna before injuries forced him to sit out and drop to Jonidan...

Back then I had a feeling they put him at M1e instead of M4 or M5 so they would ensure he get to face a full Sanyaku since they really, really didn't want to risk a Maegashira ranked rikishi win back-to-back Yusho.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

I'm poking at the makushita standings although there still isn't a rigorous attempt to get the joi right. http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/topic/43642-math-the-banzuke-haru-2024/?do=findComment&comment=515157

 

 

[Reonito 1,335]

17 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I'm poking at the makushita standings although there still isn't a rigorous attempt to get the joi right. http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/topic/43642-math-the-banzuke-haru-2024/?do=findComment&comment=515157

 

 

i'd be surprised if Yoshii ended up in the top 10, think it'll be Tokunomusashi or Otsuji

[Asashosakari 18,786]

18 hours ago, Reonito said:

Anybody want to take a shot at the next Makushita joi?

Akua (J13e 6-9)          Ms1  Kayo (Ms3w 4-3)
Kototebakari (Ms6e 5-2)  Ms2  Nabatame (Ms5w 4-3)
Daiseizan (Ms13e 6-1)    Ms3  Kiryuko (Ms8w 5-2)
Kotokuzan (Ms7w 4-3)     Ms4  Daishomaru (Ms8e 4-3)
Kitaharima (J14e 4-11)   Ms5  Tokunomusashi (Ms9w 4-3)
Wakaikari (Ms10e 4-3)    Ms6  Otsuji (Ms15w 5-2)
Tenshoho (Ms1w 3-5)      Ms7  Kotoeko (J12e 1-14)
Yoshii (Ms22w 6-1)       Ms8  Chiyonoumi (Ms11w 4-3)
Kitadaichi (Ms4e 3-4)    Ms9  Miyagi (Ms12e 4-3)
Haruyama (Ms17w 5-2)     Ms10 Asahakuryu (Ms27e 6-1)
Yuma (Ms2e 2-5)          Ms11 Nagamura (Sd3w 7-0 Y)
Fujiseiun (Ms14w 4-3)    Ms12 Yago (Ms20e 5-2)
Hitoshi (Ms21e 5-2)      Ms13 Hokutomaru (Ms6w 3-4)
Satorufuji (Ms7e 3-4)    Ms14 Kaisho (Ms23w 5-2)
Obara (Ms24w 5-2)        Ms15 Mineyaiba (Ms19e 4-3)

I'm feeling relatively confident that these are the correct 30 rikishi for the top 15, as there are rather large gaps to the next rikishi at each W-L level who therefore have clearly worse claims than any of these guys - Ms20w 4-3 Kotokenryu aside, but I don't see who he could push out.

Ms7-Ms9 is the part that's probably the most likely to be completely wrong, with both Tenshoho and Kotoeko having scores that are really hard to assess. That zone is also the dividing line between an area with fairly large amounts of space available up top, and the much more congested area in the double-digit ranks.

Edit: I should probably say, "the correct 29 rikishi after Akua", given the uncertainty that he'll actually be sent down for Tsukahara.

Edited March 25 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,335]

Kayo's now been 1 win away 3 straight times; maybe May will be the charm. Would be fun to see Kototebakari go up. Can Kitaharima set the record with 10 promotions (probably not in May)? Will anyone Ms6-Ms15 take advantage like Kazekeno just did?

[Oskanohana 227]

On 24/03/2024 at 14:46, Asashosakari said:

Low juryo...the pain...

Daiamami (M16w 7-8)      J1   Myogiryu (M15e 6-9)
Bushozan (J5e 9-6)       J2   Daishoho (J7w 10-5)
Endo (M16e 5-10)         J3   Chiyoshoma (J6w 9-6)
Kitanowaka (M14w 3-12)   J4   Kagayaki (J4e 7-8)
Tohakuryu (J2e 6-9)      J5   Asakoryu (J8e 9-6)
Shimazuumi (M12w 0-4-10) J6   Shirokuma (J5w 7-6-2)
Wakatakakage (J10w 9-6)  J7   Shishi (J8w 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J7e 7-8)      J8   Hakuoho (J13w 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J6e 4-11)     J9   Chiyosakae (J14w 8-7)
Shiden (J10e 7-8)        J10  Tamashoho (J9w 6-9)
Shimanoumi (J9e 5-10)    J11  Aoiyama (J11w 7-8)
Oshoumi (J11e 6-9)       J12  Tsushimanada (J12w 7-8)
Kazekeno (Ms13w 7-0 Y)   J13  Onokatsu (Ms2w 5-2)
Chiyomaru (Ms1e 4-3)     J14  Tsukahara (Ms4w 5-2)

Apart from Shimazuumi, whom I slotted behind Shishi (just by feeling, same feeling I got with the use of "whom" in this case, which I don't know if it's correct, but I'll go with it) and the order of the promoted from makushita (I did it also by feeling, not historical analysis), mine is abso-fucking-lutely the same. I was wincing in pain slotting Hakuyozan and Shimanoumi, and in general, all lower makekoshi. I wanted to put Onokatsu as J9w at the beginning...Congratulations to Hakuoho and Chiyosakae on their 10-5 records, well deserved. Chiyosakae's backtracking win on senshuraku (of course) might be one of the most valuable in history, banzuke wise.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Will anyone Ms6-Ms15 take advantage like Kazekeno just did?

Yoshii won the division from down the banzuke a couple of years ago, and he could be a live contender for a 7-0. Asahakuryu and Wakaikari are other possibles.. Nagamura didn't do so well last time he reached makushita but he is very young and has momentum after seeing off Aoinishiki to win sandanme.

Edited March 25 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Koorifuu 886]

Hitoshi and Fujiseiun are both threats to the yusho if they keep recovering and getting better.

[Oskanohana 227]

5 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Yoshii won the division from down the banzuke a couple of years ago, and he could be a live contender for a 7-0. Asakoryu and Wakaikari are other possibles.. Nagamura didn't do so well last time he reached makushita but he is very young and has momentum after seeing off Aoinishiki to win sandanme.

He really got down after that 8-0 start in juryo. Those banzuke makers are crazy. Of course it's a typo, Asahakuryu is the name.

I'd say Fujiseiun despite his 4-3 this basho isn't looking that bothered by his injury and might have a chance. Also, don't sleep on my man Yago. @Jakusotsu jinxed him this basho, but in Hatsu 2022 this same Yago, with the same mobility problems and the same overall feeling of clumsiness got to a kettei-sen in juryo. I'd add Hitoshi to the list, but even if he's healthy he seems to me more of a reliable 5-2 guy than a real yusho contender.

As a side note, I remember @Asashosakari commenting on Kitanowaka's performance in general. Mineyaiba is your poor man's Kitanowaka and is frustrating me to no limits.

 

@Koorifuu up here got me by a minute.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

1 hour ago, Oskanohana said:

Of course it's a typo, Asahakuryu is the name.

Thanks. Corrected!

I also mis-spelled Aonishiki

Edited March 25 by Tigerboy1966
addition

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Yoshii won the division from down the banzuke a couple of years ago, and he could be a live contender for a 7-0. Asahakuryu and Wakaikari are other possibles.. Nagamura didn't do so well last time he reached makushita but he is very young and has momentum after seeing off Aoinishiki to win sandanme.

It's MUCH easier to win Makushita when you are in its lower half.

[Reonito 1,335]

6 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It's MUCH easier to win Makushita when you are in its lower half.

Maybe in theory, but in practice, since 2000, 96 winners have come from Ms1-Ms30 and 47 from Ms31-Ms60. Ms1-Ms5 alone was 36. Speaks to the higher quality in the upper half.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

6 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It's MUCH easier to win Makushita when you are in its lower half. 

Yoshii beat Kinbozan in his last bout to take the makushita title.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Just now, Reonito said:

Maybe in theory, but in practice, since 2000, 96 winners have come from Ms1-Ms30 and 47 from Ms31-Ms60. Ms1-Ms5 alone was 36. Speaks to the higher quality in the upper half.

Now, compare it to Makuuchi. 

Juryo doesn't count, it's too small.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Yoshii beat Kinbozan in his last bout to take the makushita title.

You can get to 6-0 without facing a single guy from the top half. If you are at the top of the division, every bout is against a quality opponent, and someone from the bottom might only get one in the "finals".