Haru 2024 Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk

[Bunbukuchagama 676]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If only one slot is open, it's between Asanoyama and Onosato. If Daieisho loses, Asanoyama has Komusubi sewn up, and the second slot is between Onosato and Atamifuji. I've left Gonoyama in the queue, but I don't see a scenario in which he is promoted.

We should thank Ura for avoiding a Komusubi stampede.

Ura is true to his way: winning when he should lose and losing when he should win. 

Edited March 23 by Bunbukuchagama

[Sumo Spiffy 522]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Day 14

Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Kitanowaka, Endo, Daiamami, Myogiryu.

Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Daishoho.

Despite his 3 wins in a row (one by a henka and one by a very iffy call), I've moved Endo into the definite demotion category because the winner of Tomokaze v. Daishoho is guaranteed the slimmest numerical promotion case. Maybe this isn't 100%? Tokihayate is guaranteed promotion with a win over Shirokuma, while everyone else needs help. Daiamami and Myogiryu would be safe if they win, and could escape even with losses.

Contemplating the most favorable runout for Endo...

1. Tokihayate and Takarafuji both lose.

2. Daishoho beats Tomokaze. 

3. Mitakeumi isn't in the mood for a fight.

Endo gets dinked down to J2W mathematically, and Daishoho squeaks into makuuchi, as you say. Two rank difference. Only reason to save Endo is that Daishoho did his work from halfway down in juryo. I don't think that happens with a two rank difference. Calling Endo a definite demotion seems correct. He got pretty lucky last time, and they've shown less of a predilection for being kind to the guys in the higher division of late, so he probably gets underdemoted to J1E and gets a chance to take his spot back next time. (Given how he's looked physically, this might be doing him a favor.)

[Reonito 1,297]

46 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Endo gets dinked down to J2W mathematically, and Daishoho squeaks into makuuchi, as you say. Two rank difference. Only reason to save Endo is that Daishoho did his work from halfway down in juryo. I don't think that happens with a two rank difference. Calling Endo a definite demotion seems correct. He got pretty lucky last time, and they've shown less of a predilection for being kind to the guys in the higher division of late, so he probably gets underdemoted to J1E and gets a chance to take his spot back next time. (Given how he's looked physically, this might be doing him a favor.)

Yeah, only one guy has survived in a similar position in the past 65 years, and they would have had to pull up an 8-7 J4 to force him down.

[Bunbukuchagama 676]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Akua, Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan

I think Hakuyozan is safe. He is barely demotable by the numbers, and they wouldn't throw him out in favor of 5-2 Tsukahara or 4-3 Kayo. 

This means Nabatame is out of luck no matter what.

[Reonito 1,297]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I think Hakuyozan is safe. He is barely demotable by the numbers, and they wouldn't throw him out in favor of 5-2 Tsukahara or 4-3 Kayo. 

This means Nabatame is out of luck no matter what.

Yeah I think that's correct, but I'm guessing Nabatame doesn't know that  Plus of course he'll end up higher in the promotion zone with a 5-2 than a 4-3, and so would have less work to do in May.

Edited March 23 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,297]

7 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I see nothing wrong with putting Daishoho against promotion-seeking Tomokaze.

This could even end up being a de facto promotion playoff, depending on other results.

[Reonito 1,297]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.

Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Onosato, Atamifuji, Gonoyama.

S1e Daieisho (6-8) will vacate Sekiwake and must beat Hiradoumi avoid opening up a second Komusubi slot. Abi will move up to join S1w Wakamotoharu (8-6) at Sekiwake.

If only one slot is open, it's between Asanoyama and Onosato. If Daieisho loses, Asanoyama has Komusubi sewn up, and the second slot is between Onosato and Atamifuji. I've left Gonoyama in the queue, but I don't see a scenario in which he is promoted.

Looking more closely at this:

• Daieisho wins: If Asanoyama wins and Onosato loses, Asanoyama gets the slot. If Asanoyama and Onosato post identical results, they'll be tied by the numbers, and M1w Asanoyama should get the slot over M5w Onosato. Would they leave Onosato at M1e with 12 wins, and possibly a yusho? Probably. If Asanoyama loses and Onosato wins, Onosato should get the slot.
• Daieisho loses: Asanoyama is assured a slot. I think the second one goes to Onosato no matter what? 11 wins at M5w should beat 9 wins at M2e, no?

[Bunbukuchagama 676]

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

11 wins at M5w should beat 9 wins at M2e, no?

Only barely? We don't have the sample size to be sure what would happen in such a case.

For the sake of GTB players' sanity, we should root for Daieisho today. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,374]

20 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

For the sake of GTB players' sanity, we should root for Daieisho today.

There are sane GTB players?

[Sakura 1,462]

 

Sanyaku

2-5-7	Terunofuji	Y
4-10	Kirishima	O	Hoshoryu	10-4
8-6	Takakeisho	O	Kotonowaka	10-4
6-8	Daieisho	S	Wakamotoharu	8-6
8-5	Abi	K	Nishikigi	2-11 (X)
6-8 (x)	Ura	M1	Asanoyama	9-5
8-6	Atamifuji	M2
		M5	Onosato	11-3
		M6	Gonoyama	10-4 (x)
12-2 (x)	Takerufuji	M17	



@Reonito and others have already covered this, but I like the visuals. Wakamotoharu and Abi at Sekiwake. 



[Sakura 1,462]

8 hours ago, Reonito said:

If only one slot is open, it's between Asanoyama and Onosato. If Daieisho loses, Asanoyama has Komusubi sewn up, and the second slot is between Onosato and Atamifuji. I've left Gonoyama in the queue, but I don't see a scenario in which he is promoted.

I've x'd out Gonoyama. He can't finish above Onosato or Asanoyama in the queue.

[Sakura 1,462]

Makuuchi - Juryo

		M12	Shimazuumi	0-4-10 (x)
		M14	Kitanowaka	3-11 (x)
6-8 (1)	Myogiryu	M15
5-9 (~)	Endo	M16	Daiamami	7-7 (1)
		M17

 

Juryo Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
7-7 (1)	Tokihayate	J1	Takarafuji	7-7 (1)
		J2	Mitoryu	11-3 (o)
		J3	Tomokaze	8-6 (1)
		J4	Oshoma	10-4 (o)
8-6 (~)	Bushozan	J5
		J7	Daishoho	10-4 (1)
9-5 (x)	Asakoryu	J8

[Sakura 1,462]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

 

• Daieisho loses: Asanoyama is assured a slot. I think the second one goes to Onosato no matter what? 11 wins at M5w should beat 9 wins at M2e, no?

I think so, but I haven't x'd him out yet because his sanyaku schedule was fuller than Onosato's, though in the case I don't think that's helpful.

[Reonito 1,297]

13 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I've x'd out Gonoyama. He can't finish above Onosato or Asanoyama in the queue.

Out of reacts, but thanks for the visuals. I agree on this.

[Sakura 1,462]

Juryo - Makusihta

(ko)	Hokuseiho	J3
3-11 (1)	Hakuyozan	J6
5-9 (o)	Shimanoumi	J9
1-13 (x)	Kotoeko	J12	Tsushimanada	7-7 (o)
6-8 (1)	Akua	J13
4-10 (x)	Kitaharima	J14	Chiyosakae	7-7 (1)

 

Makushita Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
4-3 (o)	Chiyomaru	Ms1
		Ms2	Onokatsu	5-2 (o)
		Ms3	Kayo	4-3
		Ms4	Tsukahara	4-2
		Ms5	Nabatame	4-2
		Ms13	Kazekeno	7-0 (o)

[Asashosakari 18,669]

It's gotten a little crowded on the upward track of the M<->J escalator after the juryo results...

Edit: Looks good again for 5 straight exchanges after the makuuchi bouts, though.

Edited March 24 by Asashosakari

[Akinomaki 39,551]

Will they demote Aqua for Tsukahara now?

[Katooshu 3,083]

Onosato komusubi in May?

[Chiyotasuke 257]

GTB helper has just been updated https://chiyotasuke.github.io/gtbhelper/

[Tigerboy1966 1,374]

35 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Onosato komusubi in May?

Yes. He has easily the strongest claim to the second vacant slot.

Looks like a very straightforward banzuke this time around.

[Asashosakari 18,669]

I foresee a lot of discussion about how high Takerufuji should be / can be promoted...

[Godango 956]

Tokushoryu's 14-1 got him from M17 got to M2. You'd have to imagine M3 at best then. 

Edited March 24 by Godango

[Tigerboy1966 1,374]

4 minutes ago, Godango said:

Tokushoryu's 14-1 got him from M17 got to M2. You'd have to imagine M3 at best then. 

The context is what matters and there are lots of good candidates for the upper maegashira ranks this time around. I don't think Takerufuji will be as high as M3.

[Godango 956]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The context is what matters and there are lots of good candidates for the upper maegashira ranks this time around. I don't think Takerufuji will be as high as M3.

Agreed. 

[Bunbukuchagama 676]

7 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I don't think Takerufuji will be as high as M3.

He should land around M6.