Reonito

Haru 2024 Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk

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Sanyaku

Takakeisho is no longer kadoban. Daieisho won't be a Sekiwake, raising Abi to the rank. With the Ozeki clearing kadoban one slot at least will open up courtesy of Nishikigi.

2-5-6 Terunofuji Y  
3-10 Kirishima O Hoshoryu 10-3
8-5  Takakeisho O Kotonowaka 9-4
5-8 Daieisho S Wakamotoharu 7-6
8-5 Abi K Nishikigi 2-11 (X)
6-7 Ura M1 Asanoyama 8-5
8-5 Atamifuji M2    
    M3    
7-6 (x) Tobizaru M4 Hiradoumi 7-6 (x)
7-6 (x) Midorifuji M5 Onosato 10-3
    M6 Gonoyama 9-4
         
    M8 Takayasu 9-4 (x)
         
12-1 Takerufuji M17  

I don't think Takerufuji makes it to Sanyaku, even at 14-1, but I'm leaving him in here because it's the yusho thread an no-one is talking about the yusho. He's doing great, by the way.

KKs by Asanoyama and Atamifuji should remove many rikishi from contention (they probably weren't in contention anyway, but I'm ultra-conservative when it comes to kicking rikishi off this list). 

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21 hours ago, Sakura said:
4-8 (1) Shimanoumi J9    
         

 

Come on, we all know that Shimanoumi doesn't need another win. It's Shimanoumi we're talking about. 

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29 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Come on, we all know that Shimanoumi doesn't need another win. It's Shimanoumi we're talking about. 

They're throwing him a bone with Kitaharima tomorrow.

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Day 13

Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Akua, Shimanoumi, Chiyosakae, Tsushimanada, Hakuyozan.

Makushita promotion queue: KazekenoOnokatsu, Chiyomaru with a win, Kayo with a win/Tsukahara with a win, Nabatame with a win, Tsukahara with a loss, Nabatame with a loss.

Kitaharima may have a tiny chance of survival if all the promotion contenders lose their final bouts—would a 4-3 Ms4w push him down for sure, after what they did last time? On Day 14, Chiyomaru fights Akua, and Kayo has Chiyosakae. A victory by Chiyomaru would send him up and make Kitaharima's demotion absolutely certain, as would a win by Kayo. Kayo's fate, though, would depend on other results, especially Tsukahara's, who is presumably being reserved for a potential exchange bout on senshuraku, along with Nabatame. Each of the "bubble" quintet in Juryo would be safe with a win, and I'll leave for later speculation as to which promotion cases might be good enough to push any of them down if they lose out; Tsushimanada and Hakuyozan go head-to-head tomorrow so one is guaranteed safety.

Edited by Reonito
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Day 13

San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.

Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Atamifuji, Onosato, Ura, Gonoyama.

S1e Daieisho (5-8) will vacate Sekiwake and must win out to avoid opening up a second Komusubi slot. Abi will move up. S1w Wakamotoharu (7-6) needs one more win to stay Sekiwake.

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Day 13

Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Kitanowaka, Endo, Myogiryu, Daiamami (Endo could stay with 3 wins and favorable luck).

Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Daishoho.

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3 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

Come on, we all know that Shimanoumi doesn't need another win. It's Shimanoumi we're talking about. 

I agree. The numbers just represent a mathematical safety line. We've seen plenty of situations where having a demotable record doesn't guarantee demotion and I'm happy to wager that everyone with 1 win required is already safe.

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Makuuchi - Juryo

    M12 Shimazuumi 0-4-9 (x)
6-7 (o) Ryuden M13 Churanoumi 6-7 (o)
    M14 Kitanowaka 3-10 (x)
5-8 (2) Myogiryu M15 Roga 7-6 (o)
4-9 (~) Endo M16 Daiamami 7-6 (1)
    M17  

 

Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
7-6 (1) Tokihayate J1 Takarafuji 7-6 (1)
    J2 Mitoryu 10-3 (o)
    J3 Tomokaze 8-5 (1)
    J4 Oshoma 9-4 (1)
7-6 (~) Bushozan J5 Shirokuma 6-5-2 (x)
    J6    
    J7 Daishoho 9-4 (2)
9-4 (~) Asakoryu J8    
         

 

Having a demotable record doesn't guarantee demotion and having a promotable record doesn't guarantee promotion. It all depends on the numbers. Ryuden, Churanoumi and Roga removed themselves from danger and with the large number of rikishi only needing 1 win, on the Juryo side it seems as though Endo and especially Kitanowaka are already destined to leave Makuuchi.

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Juryo - Makusihta

(ko) Hokuseiho J3    
         
3-10 (1) Hakuyozan J6    
         
4-9 (1) Shimanoumi J9    
         
6-7 (o) Oshoumi J11 Aoiyama 6-7 (o)
1-12 (x) Kotoeko J12 Tsushimanada 6-7 (1)
6-7 (1) Akua J13    
4-9 (~) Kitaharima J14 Chiyosakae 7-6 (1)

 

Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
3-3 Chiyomaru Ms1    
    Ms2 Onokatsu 5-2
    Ms3 Kayo 3-3
    Ms4 Tsukahara 4-2
    Ms5 Nabatame 4-2
         
    Ms13 Kazekeno 7-0 (o)

 

Oshoumi and Aoiyama are now safe, though every rikishi with 1 win is likely already safe as well given the dearth of strong promotion candidates. The 1-win required rikishi included fan favourite Shimanoumi and Chiyosake who escaped relegation with a 6-9 at J14e last basho and could escape with a 7-8 at J14w this time around. 

Kazekeno has a 7-0 yusho score line in the extended zone and with at least two and probably three spots available should go up. Chiyomaru would go up with a win and Kitaharima's best scoreline of 6-9 might not save himself from Onokatsu, but might save himself if Chiyomaru, Kayo, Tsukahara and Nabatame all lose their final bouts. I haven't checked to see if this is possible.

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15 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I agree. The numbers just represent a mathematical safety line. We've seen plenty of situations where having a demotable record doesn't guarantee demotion and I'm happy to wager that everyone with 1 win required is already safe.

I am not so sure. If Chiyomaru wins tomorrow, that's the 3 obvious demotions spoken for. If any of endangered quintet loses out, and Kayo and/or Tsukahara win, are they definitely out of luck?

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I am not so sure. If Chiyomaru wins tomorrow, that's the 3 obvious demotions spoken for. If any of endangered quintet loses out, and Kayo and/or Tsukahara win, are they definitely out of luck?

Chiyosakae at 7-8 would be the obvious one to go down. Maybe a 6-9 Akua. The other three I think are probably safe.

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48 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

If Tsukahara wins but fails to claim his promotion, he can take solace on the fact that the eight most recent unpromoted 5-2 ms4w got it immediately afterwards thanks to another KK at ms1.

At least in the four most recent instances, it looks like there weren't any remotely plausible demotion candidates, either.

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29 minutes ago, Reonito said:

At least in the four most recent instances, it looks like there weren't any remotely plausible demotion candidates, either.

Indeed. Maybe it would be strong enough to demote marginal cases who've stayed in juryo more often than not lately (computing to J15 or 16) - Akua, Tsushimanada, Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan and Shimanoumi (who am I kidding) with two losses, in this case.

I'm guessing they're going to pair Tsukahara with whoever is the most endangered going into senshuraku, unless everyone wins tomorrow and it becomes moot.

Edited by Koorifuu

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3 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Indeed. Maybe it would be strong enough to demote marginal cases who've stayed in juryo more often than not lately (computing to J15 or 16) - Akua, Tsushimanada and Chiyosakae with two losses, in this case.

I'm guessing they're going to pair Tsukahara with whoever is the most endangered going into senshuraku and make it a de facto exchange bout, unless all three guys win tomorrow and it becomes moot.

Yeah, the day 15 pairings will tell us a fair bit about their thinking, although we've seen what we all thought were exchange bouts, but the loser got to stay over promoting the winner anyway.

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2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Yeah, the day 15 pairings will tell us a fair bit about their thinking, although we've seen what we all thought were exchange bouts, but the loser got to stay over promoting the winner anyway.

Very true, they can be cruel like that and it'd crossed my mind too. Although, if my memories aren't wrong, none of those winners had a case as convincing as a 5-2 ms4w would.

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16 hours ago, Sakura said:

I agree. The numbers just represent a mathematical safety line. We've seen plenty of situations where having a demotable record doesn't guarantee demotion and I'm happy to wager that everyone with 1 win required is already safe.

I was really just joking about the fact that it was Shimanoumi, who has escaped near-certain demotion so many times...

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Here I was thinking Akua's new persona is very entertaining and I was hoping to see it for the foreseeable future... but of course they put Tsukahara against him instead of Chiyosakae, who gets Nabatame.

I'm guessing Nabatame doesn't really have many chances, even if a win, and would require a lot of things to go his way; but they had little choice but to send him up so everything checked out.

Edited by Koorifuu

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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Again some inconsistent bouts for the 7-7: Daishoho, who still is in the yusho hunt, gets none, though he could get Tsushimanada or Shiden, and Wakatakakage, who is out of contention, gets Shishi.

I see nothing wrong with putting Daishoho against promotion-seeking Tomokaze. Every rikishi that's nominally in the race for yusho or promotion has a worthwhile opponent, there's nothing "inconsistent" here. Anyway, together with the 7-7's (not counting Chiyosakae who is otherwise occupied), there are 11 such rikishi with something important riding on their match, so somebody had to get left out in the pairing process - but Shishi has hardly got lucky with WTK as his opponent, so that part is perfectly fine, too. Maybe you're just looking for something to complain about?

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

but Shishi has hardly got lucky with WTK as his opponent, so that part is perfectly fine, too. Maybe you're just looking for something to complain about?

Of course I'm looking for something to complain about, in my view Shishi got an easier pairing than the others, someone who has nothing special to fight for - and Wakatakakage showed that he is not that good again yet. For Daishoho I overlooked that Tomokaze has something more to fight for (I had him in mind as with 0 promotion chance). Maybe a slightly better mix with greater challenge for Shishi could be found, but the inconsistency is minimal.

Edited by Akinomaki

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Day 14

Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Akua, Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan.

Makushita promotion queue: KazekenoOnokatsu, Chiyomaru, Kayo or Tsukahara with a win, Nabatame with a win.

Three rock-solid openings, three rock-solid promotions. Three incumbents on the bubble, three contenders with a chance. Tomorrow, it's Tsukahara v. Akua and Nabatame v. Chiosakae. Hakuyozan fights already MK Tamashoho; maybe that means he's not really considered endangered? Most likely, if both Makushita guys win, Kayo and Tsukahara go up at the expense of Akua and Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan escapes even with a loss, and Nabatame just misses out. If both lose, we just have the three obvious exchanges, with Kayo missing out. If only Nabatame wins, I think the slot he opens would go to Kayo. If only Tsukahara wins, he may get the last slot over Kayo. We may not get full clarity until the promotions are actually announced on Wednesday.

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Day 14

Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Kitanowaka, EndoDaiamami, Myogiryu.

Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Daishoho.

Despite his 3 wins in a row (one by a henka and one by a very iffy call), I've moved Endo into the definite demotion category because the winner of Tomokaze v. Daishoho is guaranteed the slimmest numerical promotion case. Maybe this isn't 100%? Tokihayate is guaranteed promotion with a win over Shirokuma, while everyone else needs help. Daiamami and Myogiryu would be safe if they win, and could escape even with losses.

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Day 14

San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.

Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Onosato, Atamifuji, Gonoyama.

S1e Daieisho (6-8) will vacate Sekiwake and must beat Hiradoumi avoid opening up a second Komusubi slot. Abi will move up to join S1w Wakamotoharu (8-6) at Sekiwake.

If only one slot is open, it's between Asanoyama and Onosato. If Daieisho loses, Asanoyama has Komusubi sewn up, and the second slot is between Onosato and Atamifuji. I've left Gonoyama in the queue, but I don't see a scenario in which he is promoted.

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