Reonito

Haru 2024 Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk

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Okay, I can't stand not having this thread. Mostly a placeholder as I don't have time to run it properly this basho.

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Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Aoiyama, Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan.

Makushita promotion queue: Onokatsu, Chiyomaru with a win, Kazekeno with a win, Tsukahara with a win, Kayo with a win, Nabatame with a win, Tsukahara with a loss, Nabatame with a loss.

It's not yet 100% that Kotoeko and Kitaharima will go down, but it's close. Kazekeno is the only 6-0 guy left, courtesy of Sd3 Nagamura; will he fight Onokatsu, Chiyomaru in a promotion playoff, or someone else? If he loses, we get a big playoff among the 6-1's.

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Sanyaku

2-5-5 Terunofuji Y  
3-9 Kirishima O Hoshoryu 9-3
7-5 (1) Takakeisho O Kotonowaka 9-3
5-7 Daieisho S Wakamotoharu 7-5
8-4 Abi K Nishikigi 1-11 (X)
6-6 Ura M1 Asanoyama 7-5
7-5 Atamifuji M2    
    M3    
6-6 Tobizaru M4 Hiradoumi 7-5
7-5 Midorifuji M5 Onosato 9-3
    M6 Gonoyama 9-3
         
    M8 Takayasu 8-4
         
11-1 Takerufuji M17  

 

Maximum of two slots opening up in Sanyaku and maybe only one. Takakeisho hasn't cleared kadoban yet. KK Ura would be the first in line, I suspect, but could he bring others up with him.

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Makuuchi - Juryo

    M12 Shimazuumi 0-4-8 (x)
5-7 (1) Ryuden M13 Churanoumi 5-7 (1)
    M14 Kitanowaka 3-9 (~)
5-7 (2) Myogiryu M15 Roga 6-6 (1)
3-9 (~) Endo M16 Daiamami 6-6 (2)
    M17  


Juryo Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
6-6 (2) Tokihayate J1 Takarafuji 6-6 (2)
    J2 Mitoryu 9-3 (o)
    J3 Tomokaze 7-5 (2)
    J4 Oshoma 8-4 (2)
6-6 (~) Bushozan J5 Shirokuma 6-4-2 (~)
    J6    
    J7 Daishoho 9-3 (2)
9-3 (3) Asakoryu J8    
         
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Juryo - Makusihta

(ko) Hokuseiho J3    
         
3-9 (1) Hakuyozan J6    
         
4-8 (1) Shimanoumi J9    
         
5-7 (1) Oshoumi J11 Aoiyama 5-7 (1)
1-11 (x) Kotoeko J12 Tsushimanada 6-6 (1)
6-6 (1) Akua J13    
3-9 (~) Kitaharima J14 Chiyosakae 6-6 (2)


Makushita Banzuke
Result East Rank West Result
3-3 Chiyomaru Ms1    
    Ms2 Onokatsu 5-1
    Ms3 Kayo 3-3
    Ms4 Tsukahara 4-2
    Ms5 Nabatame 4-2
         
    Ms13 Kazekeno 6-0

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Based on recent examples, I'd say Chiyosakae needs one win, and everyone in the "Needs 1 win" list is already safe. Kotoeko, Kitaharima and the vacated spot will give way to Onokatsu and two others. The best case scenario is that there's four convincing enough candidates (Onokatsu + Chiyomaru, Kazekeno and Tsukahara with shiroboshi) which might not even happen.

Endo or Myogiryu pulling the i-word in the next few days would just confirm it.

Edited by Koorifuu
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Day 12

Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Chiyosakae.

Makushita promotion queue: Onokatsu, Chiyomaru with a win, Kazekeno with a win, Tsukahara with a win, Kayo with a win, Nabatame with a win, Tsukahara with a loss, Nabatame with a loss.

Kazekeno is the only 6-0 guy left, courtesy of Sd3 Nagamura; he fights Onokatsu tomorrow. If he loses, we get a big playoff among the 6-1's. The other four promotion contenders have been saved for potential exchange bouts on the final weekend.

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Day 12

Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Endo, Kitanowaka, Myogiryu, Daiamami (bold/italic: could stay with 3 wins and favorable luck).

Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Daishoho, Asakoryu.

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Day 12

San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.

Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Atamifuji, Onosato, Ura, Gonoyama.

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If Daieisho goes 7-8, would he only fall to Komisubi?

Edited by Fashiritētā

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54 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

If Daieisho goes 7-8, would he only fall to Komisubi?

Correct. If that happens and Takakeisho somehow fails to get 8 and falls to Sekiwake, there might not be any open slots at all, though Ura could force one by getting his KK.

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55 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Correct. If that happens and Takakeisho somehow fails to get 8 and falls to Sekiwake, there might not be any open slots at all, though Ura could force one by getting his KK.

If Takakeisho gets his eight and Daieisho falls to Komisubi, can Abi go up to Sekiwake  with just 8 or 9 wins as there always has to be 2 Sekiwake

 

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8 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

If Takakeisho gets his eight and Daieisho falls to Komisubi, can Abi go up to Sekiwake  with just 8 or 9 wins as there always has to be 2 Sekiwake

 

Yes, of course. You need 11 wins at K to force an extra S slot, but any KK will do if there's one that needs to be filled. In fact, they've gone as low as 8-7 M4 to fill a vacant S slot.

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Correct. If that happens and Takakeisho somehow fails to get 8 and falls to Sekiwake, there might not be any open slots at all, though Ura could force one by getting his KK.

A 10-5 Asanoyama would force one too, probably. 

Query result (sumogames.de)

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5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

A 10-5 Asanoyama would force one too, probably. 

Query result (sumogames.de)

Possibly ... there were special circumstances for both of the recent -> K2 instances. Hope it shakes out so that we don't have to deal with these edge cases in GTB ;-)

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1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This is obviously related to Onosato, but I'm not sure what you're trying to show.

If Onosato wins out, he could also force an extra K slot. Even if it is based on a precedent from 1965. :-D

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50 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Possibly ... there were special circumstances for both of the recent -> K2 instances. Hope it shakes out so that we don't have to deal with these edge cases in GTB ;-)

I don't know if 10-5 at M1W is really an edge case, though. Nine wins is, but ten seems like a gimme for an extra K slot. Atamifuji at 10-5 would create a much bigger headache, especially if Ura jams himself into the rank as well.

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What I'd really like to see is both Kitaharima and Chiyosakae going 6-9, Chiyomaru, Kazekeno and Kayo losing, so we'd have only 3 "possible" promotions and 2 surefire demotions (Hokuseiho and Kotoeko). Would they dare to pass the dreaded Ms5 line to look for promotions? Would they split the J14's? Would they keep them both in juryo?

Surely, if all these craziness happened, Endo would declare his intai this sunday and kill my dream scenario.

BTW, I don't think Myogiryu's intai is on the cards at all. He was already demoted to juryo in 2017-2018. I 'member Myogiryu's first basho in juryo, it was when I had started watching sumo regularly. His injury fucked my juryo game prediction. I've still loved the guy throughout though.

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15 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:

What I'd really like to see is both Kitaharima and Chiyosakae going 6-9, Chiyomaru, Kazekeno and Kayo losing, so we'd have only 3 "possible" promotions and 2 surefire demotions (Hokuseiho and Kotoeko). Would they dare to pass the dreaded Ms5 line to look for promotions? Would they split the J14's? Would they keep them both in juryo?

Surely, if all these craziness happened, Endo would declare his intai this sunday and kill my dream scenario.

BTW, I don't think Myogiryu's intai is on the cards at all. He was already demoted to juryo in 2017-2018. I 'member Myogiryu's first basho in juryo, it was when I had started watching sumo regularly. His injury fucked my juryo game prediction. I've still loved the guy throughout though.

Myogiryu's also looked halfway healthy this tournament. Maybe quarter-way. Certainly an improvement over last basho, whereas Endo looks like he needs some Captain America serum to fix his knees.

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13 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:

What I'd really like to see is both Kitaharima and Chiyosakae going 6-9, Chiyomaru, Kazekeno and Kayo losing, so we'd have only 3 "possible" promotions and 2 surefire demotions (Hokuseiho and Kotoeko). Would they dare to pass the dreaded Ms5 line to look for promotions? Would they split the J14's? Would they keep them both in juryo?

I guess based on what they did last time, they'd bring up Tsukahara and Nabatame and keep Kitaharima? It was bad enough to make Chiyosakae the first 6-9 14e to stay; keeping him with the same score at 14w would be a bit much. Then again, I'm guessing they'll set up day 14/15 matches to avoid this sort of predicament.

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1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't know if 10-5 at M1W is really an edge case, though. Nine wins is, but ten seems like a gimme for an extra K slot. Atamifuji at 10-5 would create a much bigger headache, especially if Ura jams himself into the rank as well.

Now watch them all go MK.

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42-year-old Hagane is at Sd89e and just completed his basho at 5-2, which is his first KK in sandanme in two and a half years and his highest-rank KK in almost four.

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