Hoshotakamoto

Math The Banzuke Haru 2024

Recommended Posts

Kicking off this month's MTB at the end of day 6 Juryo - everyone in divisions 1 and 3 had an odd number of matches, and in Juryo we took all 6 results since it's a fairly vanilla calculation to place these rikishi.

Prior to unstacking, these are the calculated positions.

YXOGJyv.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The unstacking was a bit punitive in several cases - this should start to be mitigated with withdrawals coming in (lots of demotions that don't offset wins means it is easier to promote / avoid overdemoting the active rikishi).

I also realized my favorite new feature added by Chiyotasuke will only get its chance to shine if I clear out all the records - it thinks there are some 4-win and 5-win rikishi further down the Ms ranks because I didn't bother to update below Ms30. That will be fixed next time.

q4kEurD.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok here are full results for the end of day 7. The stuff Chiyotasuke added for makushita is really awesome and may potentially make it into the unstacked screenshot since that opens up more screen real estate.

Gi2m08I.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 8 arrived quickly. These are always the least helpful predictions as there is no such thing as ending the basho with a .500 record, or any even W-L differential. Nonetheless, here is the math after 8 days...

BOtKSCE.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Turns out it's hard to finish these at 3am without going right to sleep. Day 9 results will be slightly more relevant, with a decent number of rikishi finding their eventual win-loss differential. Clearly Asakoryu isn't going up to M14.

mt6scoN.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a first draft speculating how this could unfold. I'll aim for better precision on makushita as results come out for days 14 and 15:

sh2aEm6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So it unpacks to something like this. Juryo 9 was the place where I found a huge vacuum and had to start airlifting in names to fill the void. Also I would love if they decide to run with 3-4 Komusubi.

fzlShAo.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the napkin calculations leaving Haru 2024. I'll briefly unpack the top two divisions and maybe give Juryo some of my attention, before diving into the excellent UI provided by chiyotasuke for an in depth look at makushita standings. Reminder to any aspiring GTB cheaters that the results which came back from this post in January were extremely mediocre ~ 100th place so ... there you have it.

3ZHcRBu.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I paused in the middle to highlight how insane this gap is at Juryo 7. I've already given Shimazuumi a light parachute ride and ... there's a lot to fill in. I don't know if I'll publicly make any further tweaks to the top division. This is ... not a strong entry. Buyer beware.

RkecT2n.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

whoops I forgot that I had not returned to complete the juryo lineup. Here's my initial assessment. I will aim for much greater precision on makushita standings at a later juncture.

a4zdGYw.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a second hack at the makushita standings. The reason things are a bit misaligned at the bottom is because I was leaving gaps in the banzuke and then I started filling those in at the last second. Some gaps are left in to accommodate Matsui (Ms60TD 5-2) and the 6-1 guys coming up from Sandanme. There's definitely an opportunity to just use the chiyotasuke numbers and improve the internal consistency here.

UQDep7Y.png

 

HJyKwVo.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

DX8RJfd.png
 

I'll speak to the unstacking choices and how they graded unofficially for GTB.

Nothing interesting happened in Sanyaku.

No real surprise that Daieisho parachutes in above the M1w stack (minus 4 points). The official banzuke leaves them in the order Hiradoumi, Gonoyama, Takayasu whereas my unpacking took pains not to overdemote Tobizaru and Ura (I documented on day 1 that not-overdemoting is an official philosophy of math-the-banzuke -- clearly it cost 5 points here). Their decision to place Oho ahead of Ura indicates a preference for hitting 6-9 with -3.5 vs hitting 7-8 with -1.5.

Takerufuji and Midorifuji both had a bad day as Takerufuji received zero yusho bonus and Midorifuji was overdemoted to -1.5. (minus 2 points)

To avoid further injury to insult they were placed ahead of Nishikigi, whose parachute landed on top of the next six contenders (none of whom had a rightful claim to M7e). Mitakeumi and Kotoshoho did not get moved off of their stacked positions - Takanosho was "parachuted" one spot over to the east side. Tamawashi gets the forced over-demotion courtesy of Nishikigi and falls to M9e, pushing Shodai over to the west for a +0.5 KK promotion. Minus 8 points for not parachuting the komusubi.

"Don't overdemote" costs another point as Kinbozan moves to the west side. My placement of Sadanoumi over Shonannoumi is indefensible, but again I'm not a fan of Sadanoumi+Shodai each getting +0.5 promotions for their KKs in the official banzuke. Everyone's been fighting over scraps here from M6 down to M11e. (-5 points)

Finally Hokutofuji lands where I had placed him, starting a new precedent of 6-9s actually getting underdemoted. No one really thought Mitoryu would jump 9 "rows", and sure enough Nishikifuji even gets the nod at M12w for the first 8-7 overpromotion on the banzuke (and the last KK maegashira). Mitoryu slots in behind him now that it's down to MKs and juryo promotees. (-4 points).

Now we're left to Oshoma, Churanoumi, Ryuden, Roga, Tokihayate, Tsurugisho, Takarafuji, and Tomokaze. Even though I lose 12 out of 16 points here, a literal unstacking could have done significantly better. Churanoumi (7-8 no demotion) > Ryuden (6-9, -1) > Oshoma (11-4, +6.5 promotion) contains no surprises even as 6 points go out the door. The math favors Roga and Tokihayate to go next, and here the 8-7 Juryo moving ahead of the 7-8 M15 is a surprise and perhaps a headscratcher. (if they did it the other way I'd get 1/4 points instead of 2/4) Lastly Tomokaze > Takarafuji > Tsurugisho costs 4 points because I honestly didn't expect them to treat Tsurugisho this badly and I am a little confused why they thought Toki Taka and Tomo didn't need to occupy the bottom 3 spots in makuuchi. In any case that's a wrap on D1. 44 on GTB would have been a 5-10 and while I'm sure I could have done better than this, I don't regret taking a kyujo.

edit - obviously the bottom 2 rows of my scoring sheet are wrong since it should say 44/82 and then 44/84 ... not 44/80 with 44/82 on the last row.

Edited by Hoshotakamoto
s/hit/point

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

YYn3Fvx.png

similar analysis for Juryo

top 4 spots hold up. Endo gets moved ahead of Chiyoshoma to no surprise (-2 points).
In the next three I had said Asakoryu > Tohakuryu > Kagayaki but they said Tohakuryu > Asakoryu > Kagayaki. Kagayaki gets the full 1 slot demotion for 7-8. Tohakuryu's demotion for 6-9 is a mere -2 while Asakoryu's promotion for 9-6 is +3.5. (-2 points)

Shirokuma dropped half a spot for 7-6-2, Kitanowaka parachutes into the only obvious spot. Wakatakakage's 9-6 gets +4 and Shishi's 8-7 gets +1.5 (I predicted +3.5 and +2). (-4 points)

Shimazuumi fared much better than Tsurugisho did up in division 1 as his parachute opened up and covered 3.5 rows to give Hidenoumi the full -1.0 demotion for 7-8. (-4 points)

And this is where I highlighted the insane gap. First Hakuoho leaps the gap with 8-7 as predicted. The only other Juryo KK is Chiyosakae grabbing the next spot for 5.5 rows on an 8-7 KK (remember some division 1 rikishi moved up 0.5 slots with their 8-7). Now they give Tamashoho the 6-9 non-demotion. Good for him. Hakuyozan drops 4.5 spots while Shiden takes the 7-8 non-demotion. I foolishly believed they would go -1.0, -3.5, -0.0 instead of -0.0, -4.5, -0.0. (-5 points)

Now we're at Juryo 11 and we atone for the 6-9 non-demotion of Tamashoho by giving Oshoumi the full -2.0 demotion at 7-8, opening up -2.0 for Shimanoumi's 5-10 I'M SORRY WHAT AM I LOOKING AT

I'm actually going to pause here to see if I misread something somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Aoiyama and Tsushimanada were obvious. Chiyomaru, Tochitaikai, and Kazekeno got the treatment that I expected Tokihayate, Takarafuji, and Tomokaze to receive. Given that the promotions from makushita were not great, given that Oshoumi was 6-9, not 7-8, the placement of Shimanoumi and Oshoumi kinda makes sense. So that's juryo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the final - actual - list of promotions for makushita. All signs point to them targeting a cohesive set of promotions for 4-3, 5-2, 6-1, 2-5, etc and then just filling empty spots with whoever is available that had a 3-win MK.

KINooUO.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Here's the final - actual - list of promotions for makushita. All signs point to them targeting a cohesive set of promotions for 4-3, 5-2, 6-1, 2-5, etc and then just filling empty spots with whoever is available that had a 3-win MK.

The demotions look a lot more uniform across the division than the promotions, which get bigger as the ranks get lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Reonito said:

The demotions look a lot more uniform across the division than the promotions, which get bigger as the ranks get lower.

Interesting...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if Amakaze is bothered by his placement or it just comes out in the wash after another 7 bouts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

By the way, how did Tochimusashi end up lower than Kotodaigo?

8 full ranks lower, at that! Is there some extra penalty for sitting out all 7 bouts? @Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now