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Kintamayama

GTB invitation- March 2024 - Results!

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12 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Hokuseiho(2-4 M8e) M16 Roga(9-6 J3e) Daiamami(8-7 J1e) M17  

I guess it's only half a rank, but I'll be surprised if they keep Hokuseiho over Endo (and I'd expect the last lucky survivor to end up at the very bottom).

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As Asashosakari said, this could be a glorious victory for me or it could be a one-way trip out of the top 10, we shall see.

I'm sure I had a reason for Ura at M1W but I wish I could remember it. The Tokihayate promo might be insane but after spending an hour looking at precedent I talked myself into it.

Screen Shot 2024-02-19 at 10.13.30 PM-min.png

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1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I'm saying this because of how this banzuke is working out, not because I'm sure I did well: history is probably not going to be the most useful way of figuring out what they'll do this time. There are just too many gaps to fill, to the point where it would be more surprising if we didn't see at least a few moves that are at least tied for the biggest overpromotion/underdemotion for a particular record. (Maybe with the exception of extreme circumstances like scandals that force a bunch of kyujos/retirements.)

The question is not "Where does a rikishi with X wins from Y rank go", but "Between Rikishi X with Y rank/record combo and Rikishi A with B rank/record combo, which one historically winds up ahead." Looking at rikishi moves in isolation is always quite useless. You see this every time discussions about promotion/demotion between divisions happen.

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10 minutes ago, maglor said:

The question is not "Where does a rikishi with X wins from Y rank go", but "Between Rikishi X with Y rank/record combo and Rikishi A with B rank/record combo, which one historically winds up ahead." Looking at rikishi moves in isolation is always quite useless. You see this every time discussions about promotion/demotion between divisions happen.

And this can depend on whether they're competing for say M4 or M7.

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My last-minute decision to push Gonoyama down to M7 is looking pretty bold. 

Terunofuji Y1e
Kirishima O1e
Hoshoryu O1w
Takakeisho O2e
Kotonowaka O2w
Daieisho S1e
Wakamotoharu S1w
Abi K1e
Nishikigi K1w
Asanoyama M1e
Ura M1w
Atamifuji M2e
Oho M2w
Meisei M3e
Takanosho M3w
Tobizaru M4e
Midorifuji M4w
Hiradoumi M5e
Tsurugisho M5w
Kinbozan M6e
Onosato M6w
Gonoyama M7e
Takayasu M7w
Tamawashi M8e
Onosho M8w
Hokutofuji M9e
Kotoshoho M9w
Shodai M10e
Ichiyamamoto M10w
Ryuden M11e
Mitakeumi M11w
Shonannoumi M12e
Sadanoumi M12w
Shimazuumi M13e
Churanoumi M13w
Nishikifuji M14e
Kitanowaka M14w
Myogiryu M15e
Takerufuji M15w
Roga M16e
Daiamami M16w
Tokihayate M17e

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Yes of course. To give an example of why I ended up promoting Tokihayate, I took a look at rikishi calculating to J1W(dropping) vs rikishi calculating to J1E(rising).

Hoshoryu - 2022/07 - 10-5 J6E promoted for 3-12 M9W Ikioi with division cutoff at M17W

Aoiyama - 2011/09 - 10-3-2 J6E promoted for 5-10 M13E Yoshiazuma with division cutoff at M17E 

Kotonowaka - 2020/01 - 8-7 J2E promoted for 0-0-15 M3W Kotoyuki with division cutoff at M17W

Daishoho - 2018/11 - 8-7 J2E not promoted for 6-9 M14W Daishomaru with division cutoff at M16W

Tokushoryu + Kyokushuho - 2017/01 - 11-4 J8E and 8-7 J2E promoted for 6-9 M14E Chiyotoori and 6-9 M14W Chiyotairyu with division cutoff at M16E

Edit: missed 2022/11, Takarafuji calculates to J1E and survives ahead of Akua who is one rank ahead of him with 10-5 from J5.

90% of the bashos with someone at 10-5 J6E or 9-6 J4E or 8-7 J2E(I treat those as generally the same) are useless because either they had to be promoted with too many demotable records from Maku or they couldn't be demoted as that would require overdemoted a Makuuchi guy who should stay up. But the few bashos where they go up against a case similar to Endo's are very instructive.

 

Edited by maglor
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I had been considering Tohakuryu at M17 but the combination of 5 exchanges already being on my banzuke, Tohakuryu being J1w in raw numbers, and Endo being a fan favorite in Japan made me think too many factors were in Endo's favor to bring up Tohakuryu (or Tokihayate) despite the edge case.

Edited by #1HENKAFAN

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I entirely agree with @maglor above, if the kyokai wants to be consistent then they've promoted tokihayate. For that reason my guess includes him, and for that reason I'm probably wrong.

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It's my firm belief that the idea that 5 promotions means a 6th is less likely is just plainly wrong. Many examples in the last decade of 6+ promotions to maku where either a juryo guy who didn't calc to maku was promoted, a maku guy who could somewhat feasibly have been saved was demoted, or both.

It's basically the same argument as "When there are a lot of Ozeki they are less willing to promote another one", which I have also seen no proof for.

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5 hours ago, maglor said:

Edit: missed 2022/11, Takarafuji calculates to J1E and survives ahead of Akua who is one rank ahead of him with 10-5 from J5.

This is the one I remember very well. Not only was Takarafuji demotable, but Akua was also promotable by the numbers.

This case alone makes me think Tokihayate has no chance. The number of exchanges is not the deciding factor.

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16 hours ago, Yubinhaad said:
On 18/02/2024 at 22:13, Hoshotakamoto said:

On a related note is anyone else a little surprised to see these other 3 clustered as close to Koto as they are about to be on the next banzuke?


Not particularly. Kototebakari and Hananoumi both have 56 wins, Wakanosho 53, and Daiseizan has no make-koshi yet - he would likely be ahead of them all if he hadn't missed two basho with, a broken hand I think it was. As ever, upper Makushita will be the real proving grounds, although Wakanosho was make-koshi in January so he won't be there just yet.

Other two from the same maezumo crop: Kotokenryu (55 wins, Hatsu 3-4 ms14) and Toseiryu (52 wins, Hatsu 3-4 ms24)

A very strong class overall. All of the above skyrocketed to upper makushita, and there's only one single exception across that entire shindeshi field. Nobody seems to be able to move from there, however. Kototebakari has done the best so far, with one basho in the makushita joi zone.

Edited by Koorifuu

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8 hours ago, maglor said:

Yes of course. To give an example of why I ended up promoting Tokihayate, I took a look at rikishi calculating to J1W(dropping) vs rikishi calculating to J1E(rising).

Hoshoryu - 2022/07 - 10-5 J6E promoted for 3-12 M9W Ikioi with division cutoff at M17W

Hoshoryu was promoted taking the spot of M16e Nishikigi 6-9 though, no? Ikioi was sent packing to promote J5w Ichinojo 9-6 (which almost nobody expected in GTB). Of course that doesn't weaken the argument that J6e 10-5 is a reasonably strong promotion case if they sent up an even weaker rank/record combo as well, but the decision to promote Hoshoryu was a bit more straight-forward than a comparison with Ikioi makes it look.

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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Hoshoryu was promoted taking the spot of M16e Nishikigi 6-9 though, no? Ikioi was sent packing to promote J5w Ichinojo 9-6 (which almost nobody expected in GTB). Of course that doesn't weaken the argument that J6e 10-5 is a reasonably strong promotion case if they sent up an even weaker rank/record combo as well, but the decision to promote Hoshoryu was a bit more straight-forward than a comparison with Ikioi makes it look.

Yep, also it was 7/2020 not 7/2022. And as you correctly point out no one was debating whether or not Hoshoryu would move up after losing the playoff but the Ichinojo thing almost made me have a stroke (later compounded by his h2h win over Ikioi and the divergent paths that their careers subsequently took).

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2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Other two from the same maezumo crop: Kotokenryu (55 wins, Hatsu 3-4 ms14) and Toseiryu (52 wins, Hatsu 3-4 ms24)

A very strong class overall. All of the above skyrocketed to upper makushita, and there's only one single exception across that entire shindeshi field. Nobody seems to be able to move from there, however. Kototebakari has done the best so far, with one basho in the makushita joi zone.

Yeah I wanted to be clear that I wasn't surprised the other ones earned positions on the banzuke close to Kototebakari *given* what their records have been. It just felt like he was head and shoulders above them when they fired the starting pistol and yet here we are with him at the head of the pack, just barely.

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After the previous conversations I am confronting yet again that changing things from my initial draft usually hurts me more than it helps. Too bad. I would rather have seen Tokihayate or Tohakuryu promoted anyways so let's say I hedged my bets or something by choosing Endo.

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6 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Does anyone else have Meisei ahead of Oho or am I way out on a limb?

I moved Meisei ahead of Oho assuming some level of veteran bias and a possibly-baseless assumption that 9-6 is the "sweet spot" which is better than 8-7 but also maybe better than 10-5 or 11-4 coming up from underneath.

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8 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Does anyone else have Meisei ahead of Oho or am I way out on a limb?

Sumo Spiffy had Meisei ahead of Oho in his guess but he's the only other one I've seen do that so far. It's not that crazy but it seems Oho is the standard choice there.

(Of course @Hoshotakamoto got his answer one second before mine so now it looks like I'm not reading)

Edited by #1HENKAFAN
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1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Does anyone else have Meisei ahead of Oho or am I way out on a limb?

It's basically a coin flip, they've been mostly breaking ties recently based win totals for rikishi from a similar area of the banzuke, so that favors Oho, but there are "intangibles" that can be used to argue for Meisei.

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1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Does anyone else have Meisei ahead of Oho or am I way out on a limb?

I do. It seems that in the lower ranks, for a 10-5 to trump a 9-6, you need a one rank difference. Usually, a two rank difference isn't enough, so no soup for Ouhou. Takanoshou was one rank behind Tsurugishou, so obviously he will be ranked higher. That's why I think Ounoshou will be ranked lower than Tsurugishou. No? Hiradoumi before Takanoshou. A 9-rank promotion with a 10-5 from 12E?? Looks like everyone has that- I don't. This is going to be a strange one. I smell under-promotions and under demotions. The boat is getting too rocky. We can't have that. Precedents? Some may be ignored.

Edited by Kintamayama
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2 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:
2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Does anyone else have Meisei ahead of Oho or am I way out on a limb?

I moved Meisei ahead of Oho assuming some level of veteran bias and a possibly-baseless assumption that 9-6 is the "sweet spot" which is better than 8-7 but also maybe better than 10-5 or 11-4 coming up from underneath.

Well that's me, you, Spiffy and Moti. If we have got this horribly wrong we will at least have some good company on our sinking ship.

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46 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I do. It seems that in the lower ranks, for a 10-5 to trump a 9-6, you need a one rank difference. Usually, a two rank difference isn't enough, so no soup for Ouhou. Takanoshou was one rank behind Tsurugishou, so obviously he will be ranked higher. That's why I think Ounoshou will be ranked lower than Tsurugishou. No? Hiradoumi before Takanoshou. A 9-rank promotion with a 10-5 from 12E?? Looks like everyone has that- I don't. This is going to be a strange one. I smell under-promotions and under demotions. The boat is getting too rocky. We can't have that. Precedents? Some may be ignored.

you're not going to convince me that "no soup for Ouhou" doesn't rhyme with "no soup for you" or perhaps even "no soup for you two".

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Any of the folks promoting Tokihayate and dropping Endo have Tohakuryu coming up to take Myogiryu's spot? Myogiryu technically computes to M17w, which isn't going to be on the Haru banzuke...

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55 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I do. It seems that in the lower ranks, for a 10-5 to trump a 9-6, you need a one rank difference. Usually, a two rank difference isn't enough, so no soup for Ouhou. Takanoshou was one rank behind Tsurugishou, so obviously he will be ranked higher. That's why I think Ounoshou will be ranked lower than Tsurugishou. No? Hiradoumi before Takanoshou. A 9-rank promotion with a 10-5 from 12E?? Looks like everyone has that- I don't. This is going to be a strange one. I smell under-promotions and under demotions. The boat is getting too rocky. We can't have that. Precedents? Some may be ignored.

2042512547_ScreenShot2024-02-20at2_48_30PM.thumb.png.ef8fc13f549e37488b520628f5b3946c.png

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18 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well that's me, you, Spiffy and Moti. If we have got this horribly wrong we will at least have some good company on our sinking ship.

If putting Oho behind Meisei means you're on a sinking ship, I think mine might get sucked up into a water spout. I put Oho at M2e.

If Atamifuji = cuddle bug... Grumpy old men don't like to cuddle.

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