Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Gurowake 3,872]

13 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Step two: Only Wakamotoharu fits. 10-5 record (+5), with two ranks above him (M1 -> K -> S), and 5 - 2 = 3.
38 + 3 = 41.

The only problem with this, and this is relatively minor and possibly irrelevant, is that demotions from sanyaku are much more lenient than a single rank of maegashira.  I tend to assume that each sanyaku rank is worth 2 maegashira ranks, and this works better.  I haven't fully thought about the implications of that in your calculation.  

[Wakawakawaka 135]

14 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

There are no intais, so unless I forgot something, the overall expectation is makuuchi wrestlers will enjoy 51.5 ranks of positive movement (overpromotions or underdemotions) among them.

Don't inter-division matches also contribute to this formula?

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

The only problem with this, and this is relatively minor and possibly irrelevant, is that demotions from sanyaku are much more lenient than a single rank of maegashira.  I tend to assume that each sanyaku rank is worth 2 maegashira ranks, and this works better.  I haven't fully thought about the implications of that in your calculation.  

The main issue, to me, is that while historically there has been padding given to sanyaku demotees on their drop, that's always at the whim of the committee and there's no tendency on how they do it that's as clear as the core win-minus-loss calculation that forms the banzuke as a whole. The extra "value" given to having a sanyaku rank can change, and thus it's difficult to fit into a formula like this. Because of that, the fact there are already a lot of moving parts involved, and the realization this calculation will rarely match the amount of actual "extra" ranks handed out for other reasons (especially how juryo wrestlers being promoted are treated and how that impacts movement for guys hovering around the bottom of the division), it's easier to use and explain by treating all the ranks as one and accepting that these calculations indicate the movement trend rather than predict a precise outcome.

But now you got me thinking...

I'm looking up 6-9 and 5-10 records at sekiwake and komusubi over the last twenty years, and where they end up.

6-9 Sekiwake (ignoring Daieisho from Nagoya 2022)

M1: 15
M2: 5

6-9 Komusubi

M1: 5
M2: 29
M3: 9

This makes enough sense; same record, one rank difference to start, one rank difference in most common finish.

5-10 Sekiwake

M2: 4
M3: 8
M4: 4

5-10 Komusubi

M2: 5
M3: 9
M4: 6
M5: 4

But then, what's going on here? Komusubi can get pushed lower, which makes sense since M5 is five ranks below them and M4 is five ranks below sekiwake, but both groups land at M3 more than any other rank. A smaller percentage of komusubi land at M3, but there are also several komusubi who only drop to M2 with no sekiwake who only drop to M1. If I went through and calculated out every banzuke, I might find a reason that shows a more definitive approach, but that would take quite a while and I have my doubts it would turn up anything substantive. When I have time, I might mess around and see if cutting one rank for demoted sanyaku makes things closer.

17 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Don't inter-division matches also contribute to this formula?

In theory they could make a difference; if someone has more losses than they need to drop out of makuuchi, and one of those losses came from someone in juryo, maybe it's correct to not include that loss. But what happens at the top of juryo plays into what happens in makuuchi (with division transfers), and it takes more time for very marginal benefit at best, so I don't include it. If I was going for hyper-precision, it would be more worth trying to figure out how to include these appropriately, but I don't think hyper-precision is possible.

[Wakawakawaka 135]

I thought I remembered a video you (or someone else?) did on such formula that did include that. If for example someone in Makuuchi is kyujo, and there is a Juryo visitor every day for 15 days, and he gets whomped every day, then the total W/L record for Makuuchi gets skewed high, thus making ranking more stringent?

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

There's one part I forgot—whether or not the size of the sanyaku changes. This part of the calculation will sometimes be different when done as a prediction versus looking back. The original video I made about this focused on Kyushu 2022 for this very reason.

The math in the other post was correct as far as it goes:

14 (Y/O/S victories) + 8 (K and below unused wins) - 20.5 (demotee unused losses) + 0.5 (intai impact) = +2.

However, when someone leaves the sanyaku, they need to take up a space in maegashira, which means all the maegashira ranks get pushed down. Likewise, if the sanyaku expands, that makes room for everyone else, so they all move up. Going by records in Kyushu 2022, it looked like four guys should be demoted out of the sanyaku (6-9 S Mitakeumi, 6-9 K Tamawashi, 7-8 Ks Tobizaru and Daieisho), and only one was definitely in a position to move up (12-3 Takayasu). With sixteen maegashira ranks, and an expectation that the sanyaku would shrink by a total of three, that meant there was an expectation -48 ranks of movement for that reason alone. Thus, the predicted amount of positive/negative movement was 2 - 48 = -46 ranks.

In retrospect, the actual number was +2 because they decided to promote Kotonowaka, Meisei, and Wakamotoharu with record/rank combinations that would normally not force new komusubi slots (in addition to pushing Takayasu to an extra sekiwake slot to make it all look nice). So, looking back, you'd want to use the +2 as a basis for seeing what general movement was like going from Kyushu 2022 to Hatsu 2023.

Redoing the list from the other post with this in mind: (EDIT: THIS STILL DOES NOT INCLUDE JURYO MATCHES, WHICH SLIGHTLY ALTER THE MATH; SCROLL DOWN A BIT FURTHER)

Kyushu 2022 predicted P/N movement: -46
Kyushu 2022 actual P/N movement: +2

Hatsu 2023 predicted P/N movement: +10.5 (+26.5 base, Takayasu/Shodai/Meisei demoted, Tobizaru/Daieisho promoted)
Hatsu 2023 actual P/N movement: +10.5 (sanyaku shrinks from ten to nine)

Haru 2023 predicted P/N movement: +34.5 (Tobizaru demoted, Shodai promoted)
Haru 2023 actual P/N movement: +34.5

Natsu 2023 predicted P/N movement: +52 (+68.5 base, Waka Prime/Shodai demoted, Abi promoted)
Natsu 2023 actual P/N movement: +52 (sanyaku shrinks from nine to eight)

Nagoya 2023 predicted P/N movement: +40 (+23 base, Abi demoted, Kotonowaka from K to extra S slot, Nishikigi and Tobizaru promoted)
Nagoya 2023 actual P/N movement: +40 (sanyaku grows from eight to nine)

Aki 2023 predicted P/N movement: +7.5 (Nishikigi and Tobizaru demoted, Hokutofuji and Abi promoted)
Aki 2023 actual P/N movement: +7.5

Kyushu 2023 predicted P/N movement: +16 (+32.5 base, Wakamotoharu/Abi/Hokutofuji demoted, Ura/Takayasu promoted)
Kyushu 2023 actual P/N movement: +16 (sanyaku shrinks from nine to eight)

Hatsu 2024 predicted P/N movement: +68.5 (+15.5 base, Kotonowaka to ozeki, Takayasu/Ura demoted, Wakamotoharu/Abi/one other promoted, sanyaku grows from eight to nine)

I wondered how it was that this coming banzuke felt like it was super wide open but there was still one that calculated way ahead of it in terms of positive movement; this is why. The changes in sanyaku size make the difference. This one really is going to be all over the place.

Edit: Further math forthcoming...

Edited January 30 by Sumo Spiffy

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

1 minute ago, Wakawakawaka said:

I thought I remembered a video you (or someone else?) did on such formula that did include that. If for example someone in Makuuchi is kyujo, and there is a Juryo visitor every day for 15 days, and he gets whomped every day, then the total W/L record for Makuuchi gets skewed high, thus making ranking more stringent?

I'm sure it was me; I would be astonished if anyone was as much of a dork as to go this deep down the rabbit hole. And now that you have me thinking about it, even though I can't find which video it was where I added that in (it wasn't part of the original formula), I'm remembering that it was all the juryo matches that potentially mattered, not just the ones for guys who got demoted. Alright, I'm just gonna make a new post and redo the whole damn thing.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

Now that I've remembered/been reminded of all the factors, here's what the math should really look like for the aforementioned bashos, and what seems predictable for this past one:

Kyushu 2022: 14 (Keisho/Shodai/Waka Prime/Hoshoryu) + 8 (Takayasu/Kotonowaka) - 20.5 (Terutsuyoshi/Atamifuji/Takarafuji) + 0.5 (Chiyotairyu) = +2 (no kyujos, no change in sanyaku size, 4-4 in J/M matches)

Hatsu 2023: 13 (Keisho/Waka Prime/Hoshoryu) + 11 (Kiri/Waka Deux/Daieisho) + 23.5 (Takayasu/Ichinojo/Tochinoshin kyujo) - 6.5 (Chiyomaru) - 1.5 (Okinoumi) - 16 (sanyaku shrinks by one) - 2 (4-6 in J/M matches) = +8.5

Haru 2023: 13 (Keisho/Hoshoryu/Kiri) + 17 (Waka Deux/Daieisho/Shodai) + 7 (Waka Prime/Onosho kyujo) - 2.5 (Bushozan/Azumaryu) = +34.5 (no change in sanyaku size, 6-6 in J/M matches)

Natsu 2023: 38 (Teru/Keisho/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Waka Deux) + 35 (Waka Prime/Takayasu/Endo/Kotoshoho kyujo) - 8.5 (Kagayaki/Mitoryu/Ichiyamamoto) + 4 (Ichinojo) - 16.5 (sanyaku shrinks by one) - 2 (3-5 in J/M matches) = +50 

Nagoya 2023: 12 (Teru/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Waka Deux) + 10 (Kotonowaka/Nishikigi/Tobizaru) + 8.5 (Asanoyama/Waka Prime kyujo) - 7.5 (Bushozan) + 17 (sanyaku grows by one) - 2 (4-6 in J/M matches) = +38

Aki 2023: 22 (Kiri/Keisho/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Waka Deux/Kotonowaka) + 8 (Hakuoho kyujo) - 22.5 (Daishoho/Kagayaki/Chiyoshoma/Kotoshoho/Aoiyama) = +7.5 (no change in sanyaku size, no J/M matches)

Kyushu 2023: 33 (Keisho/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Kotonowaka) + 1 (Takayasu) + 11 (Asanoyama/Takanosho kyujo) - 12.5 (Kitanowaka/Nishikifuji/Roga/Tohakuryu) - 16.5 (sanyaku shrinks by one) - 3 (2-5 in J/M matches) = +14

Hatsu 2024: 38 (Teru/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Koto/Daieisho) + 3 (Waka Deux) + 27 (Takayasu/Hokutofuji/Asanoyama/Hokuseiho kyujo) - 16.5 (Aoiyama/Bushozan/Takarafuji/Tomokaze/Endo/Hokuseiho) + 17 (sanyaku increases by one) + 3 (4-1 in J/M matches) = +71.5

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

And the final note: If you count up the number of overpromotion/underdemotion ranks expected in the coming basho, it's not going to add up to 71.5. However, if you include the ranks gained by the guys coming into juryo (so +3.5 if you have one at M14E, +3 at M14W, +2.5 at M15E, etc.), it gets pretty close.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

As expected, 4 promotions - Wakatakakage, Hakuōhō, Kitaharima and Tsushimanada. 

Chiyomaru and Akua are safe. 

[Sokkenaiyama 76]

On 30/01/2024 at 05:42, Sumo Spiffy said:

OK, here goes. This is designed to calculate the approximate total amount of positive or negative movement for makuuchi wrestlers going from one banzuke to the next. (The number is essentially always positive by design; on the rare occasions it's been negative, it's only been a small negative number, and the banzuke was still a disaster in those instances.) It's not exact—if it ever matches the actual amount of extra positive/negative movement across the division, it's half a miracle—but at minimum it acts as a point of comparison between banzukes with regards to how easy it is to fly up the ranks/minimize lost ranks.

Positive/Negative Movement Calculation

1. Calculate non-kyujo wins minus losses for yokozuna, ozeki, and winning sekiwake (losing sekiwake drop rank, so they're part of the normal flow).
2. If anyone below sekiwake has more wins over losses than ranks above them, take their W - L, subtract the number of ranks they could go up, and add that number.
3. Add kyujo losses for losing sekiwake and everyone below (yokozuna, ozeki, and winning sekiwake don't drop rank due to kyujo losses, so those are effectively meaningless).
4. Subtract extra losses for those whose records demote them out of the division (e.g. Takarafuji was 6-9, which is minus-3, but only needed to drop two ranks to leave the division, so for him we subtract one). This sometimes requires keeping track of how kyujo losses play into someone being mathematically demoted out of the division.
5. If anyone sekiwake or below goes intai, add the number of ranks below them (since everyone else will get bumped up for free), then include their wins minus losses (generally a negative number if they're going intai). If a yokozuna or ozeki goes intai, nothing needs to be done—their record is included in step one, and nobody moves up for free.
(Edit) 6. If the sanyaku is expected to change in size, add the number of maegashira ranks in the current banzuke for each slot the sanyaku will gain (since everyone moves up), and subtract the number for each slot the sanyaku will lose (since everyone will be forced down). If calculating this after the fact, add or subtract based on what actually happened rather than what's predicted.
(Edit) 7. If there were any makuuchi vs. juryo matches, calculate juryo wins minus makuuchi wins in those matchups, and include that in the calculation.

So, in this case...

Step one: 11 (13-2 Teru) plus 7 (11-4 Kiri) plus 6 (10-4 Hoshoryu) plus 11 (13-2 Koto) plus 3 (9-6 Daieisho).
11 + 7 + 6 + 11 + 3 = 38.

Step two: Only Wakamotoharu fits. 10-5 record (+5), with two ranks above him (M1 -> K -> S), and 5 - 2 = 3.
38 + 3 = 41.

Step three: 9 (Takayasu) plus 6 (Hokutofuji) plus 3 (Asanoyama) plus 9 (Hokuseiho). Aoiyama's kyujo losses are irrelevant since he's M17W and leaving the division.
41 + 9 + 6 + 3 + 9 = 68.

Step four: Subtract 6.5 (0-7-8 Aoiyama, M17W), 5.5 (4-11 Bushozan, M16W), 1 (6-9 Takarafuji, M16E), 2 (5-10 Tomokaze, M15E), 0.5 (5-10 Endo, M13W), 1 (2-4-9 Hokuseiho, M8E; the nine kyujos drop him to M17E mathematically, and he needs one rank of demotion from the 2-4 to finish the push into juryo, leaving one left over).
68 - 6.5 - 5.5 - 1 - 2 - 0.5 - 1 = 51.5.

There are no intais, so skip step five.

Step six: Kotonowaka should be promoted to ozeki, which will increase the sanyaku from eight to nine. Therefore, we add 17 ranks of positive movement.
51.5 + 17 = 68.5.

Step seven: Four juryo wins and one makuuchi win. 4 - 1 = 3.
68.5 + 3 = 71.5.

Unless I forgot something, the overall expectation is makuuchi wrestlers will enjoy 71.5 ranks of positive movement (overpromotions or underdemotions) among them.

This is impressive stuff.

[Gurowake 3,872]

16 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Chiyomaru and Akua are safe. 

I'm not sure how Akua was in any danger, plus it's still kinda a toss-up between Chiyomaru and Chiyosakae for the last spot.  There's good reason to lean towards Chiyomaru getting it, but it's not as certain as it usually is. 

[Reonito 1,295]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I'm not sure how Akua was in any danger, plus it's still kinda a toss-up between Chiyomaru and Chiyosakae for the last spot.  There's good reason to lean towards Chiyomaru getting it, but it's not as certain as it usually is. 

Indeed, Akua was fully safe by the numbers. The arguments in favor of Chiyomaru are (1) as someone said, the optics of dropping 2.5 ranks with 5 wins are better than dropping half a rank with 6, (2) the only instance we have of a J14 surviving with 6 wins since Juryo went to 28 is the 2011 scandal banzuke (the guy went up to J10), while there is a 2005 precedent for J12e (5-10) -> J14w, and (3) I feel like they usually break ties of this sort by rank.

[Asashosakari 18,650]

My juryo attempt:

Hokuseiho (M8e 2-4-9)      J1   Takerufuji (J10e 13-2 Y)
Tohakuryu (J2w 8-7)        J2   Tokihayate (J6e 10-5)
Tomokaze (M15e 5-10)       J3   Mitoryu (J1w 7-8)
Kagayaki (J7e 9-6)         J4   Oshoma (J5w 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J10w 10-5)      J5   Shirokuma (J6w 8-7)
Bushozan (M16w 4-11)       J6   Chiyoshoma (J5e 7-8)
Hidenoumi (J11w 10-5)      J7   Daishoho (J9w 9-6)
Asakoryu (J9e 8-7)         J8   Shishi (J7w 7-8)
Tamashoho (J4e 4-11)       J9   Shimanoumi (J8e 6-9)
Shiden (J8w 6-9)           J10  Oshoumi (J13w 8-7)
Kotoeko (J4w 3-10-2)       J11  Aoiyama (M17w 0-7-8)
Wakatakakage (Ms1w 7-0 Y)  J12  Akua (J11e 6-9)
Tsushimanada (Ms2e 5-2)    J13  Hakuoho (Ms5w 6-1)
Kitaharima (Ms2w 4-3)      J14  Chiyomaru (J12e 5-10)

The first slot is really Hokuseiho/Takarafuji, and the last is Chiyomaru/Chiyosakae, but I'm leaning towards the two listed, if only 51/49. It's easily possible to make a case either way in both situations - Hokuseiho has the possible benefit of the doubt from his much higher rank, but he did go kyujo, and Takarafuji might have some veteran's bonus with the committee.  (Ditto Endo half a computed rank higher - I really can't see him dropping even if they do decide to go with five promotions with Takerufuji.)

A veteran's bonus is also the reason I ultimately put Chiyomaru there, even though it would look much better to demote both J12 5-10's - if Chiyosakae and Chiyomaru were from different stables, I quite possibly would expect Chiyosakae to stay, but I think it's going to go in favour of the more senior Kokonoe rikishi here. (Sekitori seniority/experience, that is; I realize Chiyosakae is actually older. It's not the outcome I would personally prefer, anyway.)

[Gurowake 3,872]

25 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Hokuseiho (M8e 2-4-9)      J1   Takerufuji (J10e 13-2 Y)

For some reason I knew you wouldn't think they'd promote Takerufuji.  I fully understand the potential reasoning behind this, and definitely admit that it's well within the realm of possibility, but...it just doesn't seem like it's close enough that the usual issues against promoting from deep in the division apply.  I admit I haven't done any research though.

[Asashosakari 18,650]

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

For some reason I knew you wouldn't think they'd promote Takerufuji.

Possibly this comment of mine on Sunday? 

On 28/01/2024 at 19:39, Asashosakari said:

I'm tempted to argue for only four M<->J exchanges as the version with the best optics.

I started to look into low-ranked records that were right on the numerical targets afterwards, but I've been travelling this week so it's not anywhere near done yet. But outside of comparable cases, my core belief/assumption is that a promotion after just one juryo basho is not something they'll want to do if it's reasonably avoidable (which IMHO it is here). Could be totally wrong; my recent track record on edge case decisions has not been terribly good.

Edited January 31 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,295]

29 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

For some reason I knew you wouldn't think they'd promote Takerufuji.  I fully understand the potential reasoning behind this, and definitely admit that it's well within the realm of possibility, but...it just doesn't seem like it's close enough that the usual issues against promoting from deep in the division apply.  I admit I haven't done any research though.

I've done a bit of research, though there aren't that many relevant precedents, and I'm also leaning this way. Atamifuji showed that they won't over-demote someone by even half a rank in favor of a deep promotion, but it's not clear that they'd save demotable records.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

For some reason I knew you wouldn't think they'd promote Takerufuji.  I fully understand the potential reasoning behind this, and definitely admit that it's well within the realm of possibility, but...it just doesn't seem like it's close enough that the usual issues against promoting from deep in the division apply.  I admit I haven't done any research though.

I'm prepared to push my chips in on Takerufuji and be as wrong about his placement as I was wrong about Atamifuji when they shafted him and he responded with a Juryo yusho and two trips to the day-15 makuuchi leaderboard.

[Reonito 1,295]

	Ms8e	Onokatsu	6-1	+7	Ms1
					Ms2
	Ms6w	Kitadaichi	4-3	+3.5	Ms3	Ms1e	Kayo	3-4	-2.5
	J14e	Chiyosakae	6-9	↓	Ms4	J12w	Tenshoho	5-10	↓
	J13e	Yuma	5-10	↓	Ms5	J14w Ms3w Ms11e Ms11w Ms8w Ms9w Ms12e	Tochimusashi Satorufuji Tsukahara Kotodaigo Kototebakari Hokutomaru Nabatame	5-10 3-4 5-2 5-2 4-3 4-3 5-2	↓  -2 +5.5 +6 +3 +4 +6.5

Visual version of Makushita joi. Anyone have a better sense for the ordering and for which of the 7 guys I stacked at 5w will actually end up in the top 10?

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

23 minutes ago, Reonito said:

	Ms8e	Onokatsu	6-1	+7	Ms1
					Ms2
	Ms6w	Kitadaichi	4-3	+3.5	Ms3	Ms1e	Kayo	3-4	-2.5
	J14e	Chiyosakae	6-9	↓	Ms4	J12w	Tenshoho	5-10	↓
	J13e	Yuma	5-10	↓	Ms5	J14w Ms3w Ms11e Ms11w Ms8w Ms9w Ms12e	Tochimusashi Satorufuji Tsukahara Kotodaigo Kototebakari Hokutomaru Nabatame	5-10 3-4 5-2 5-2 4-3 4-3 5-2	↓  -2 +5.5 +6 +3 +4 +6.5

Visual version of Makushita joi. Anyone have a better sense for the ordering and for which of the 7 guys I stacked at 5w will actually end up in the top 10?

I'm sending you the link to a google sheet where I had made efforts to codify the historical precedent on this.

[Asashosakari 18,650]

My probably futile makushita-joi attempt:

Chiyosakae (J14e 6-9)      Ms1  Onokatsu (Ms8e 6-1)
Tenshoho (J12w 5-10)       Ms2  Yuma (J13e 5-10)
Kitadaichi (Ms6w 4-3)      Ms3  Tochimusashi (J14w 5-10)
Kayo (Ms1e 3-4)            Ms4  Tsukahara (Ms11e 5-2)
Kotodaigo (Ms11w 5-2)      Ms5  Nabatame (Ms12e 5-2)
Kototebakari (Ms8w 4-3)    Ms6  Satorufuji (Ms3w 3-4)
Daishomaru (Ms20e 6-1)     Ms7  Hokutomaru (Ms9w 4-3)
Kotokuzan (Ms10e 4-3)      Ms8  Kiryuko (Ms5e 3-4)
Dewanoryu (Ms18e 5-2)      Ms9  Tokunomusashi (Ms14w 4-3)
Wakaikari (Ms15e 4-3)      Ms10 Chiyonoumi (Ms4e 2-6)
Hokutenkai (Ms7w 3-4)      Ms11 Hananoumi (Ms29w 6-1)
Miyagi (Ms17e 4-3)         Ms12 Otsuji (Ms9e 3-4)
Daiseizan (Ms18w 4-3)      Ms13 Mudoho (Ms25w 5-2)
Kazekeno (Ms26e 5-2)       Ms14 Kotoyusho (Ms26w 5-2)
Yago (Ms6e 2-5)            Ms15 Hitoshi (Ms7e 2-5)

Kairyu (Ms21e 4-3)         Ms16 Tendozan (Ms38e 6-1)
Fujiseiun (Sd26w 7-0 Y)    Ms17 Fukai (Ms12w 3-4)

Ms5w looks like a complete toss-up between Nabatame and Kototebakari to me, they've treated comparable cases very inconsistently over the last decade. Similarly, I really struggled with the end of the top 15 - there's a lot of space to fill with lucky rikishi in that area this time. I actually had Fukai at Ms15w at first, but that would be almost completely unprecedented leniency, so I pushed up Kairyu instead. I would actually prefer Fujiseiun there, but Sd26+ to Ms15 has in fact never been done - it would be great karmic justice, however, as he's also one of just two rikishi who had a 7-0 from inside the sandanme top 25 without getting to the makushita top 15. And he could arguably make much better use of it this time around, too. Edit: Ugh, I had missed Kotoyusho from my draft. Fixed. I'm still very much unsure of the last few spots, though.

Edited February 1 by Asashosakari

[Akinomaki 39,487]

So exchanges for 2 heya: Tenshoho replaced by Hakuoho and Takarafuji by Nishikifuji, no 1000 consecutive makuuchi appearances - and then maybe joint fasted to makuuchi with Jokoryu for Takerufuji - if Isegahama were still riji then definitely

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Edit: Ugh, I had missed Kotoyusho from my draft. Fixed.

Don't feel bad, I made one or two makushita projections where I had him down as Kotoyushi.

[Koorifuu 858]

Side note, happy to see Kitadaichi have another go, even if it was at the cost of rikishi I'm particularly fond of. I thought he'd blown it at the last hurdle two months ago and would never get back to the joi.

[Reonito 1,295]

36 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

My probably futile makushita-joi attempt:

Chiyosakae (J14e 6-9)      Ms1  Onokatsu (Ms8e 6-1)
Tenshoho (J12w 5-10)       Ms2  Yuma (J13e 5-10)
Kitadaichi (Ms6w 4-3)      Ms3  Tochimusashi (J14w 5-10)
Kayo (Ms1e 3-4)            Ms4  Tsukahara (Ms11e 5-2)
Kotodaigo (Ms11w 5-2)      Ms5  Nabatame (Ms12e 5-2)
Kototebakari (Ms8w 4-3)    Ms6  Satorufuji (Ms3w 3-4)

For some reason I had it in my head that Tochimusashi was borderline for Ms5, but looking at it again, this makes a lot of sense, I wonder if I mentally credited him with only 4 wins 

[Ack! 424]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

My probably futile makushita-joi attempt:

I was a little more aggressive in my demotions, noting that I had underdemoted in the past.  I have Kayo at Ms6e, Satorufuji at Ms8w and Chiyonoumi unspecified below Ms10 -- that's where I usually stop.  Otherwise, mine is within +/- one spot in the top 10 and +/- two spots in the second 10 from yours.  I think Ms GTB scores would be pretty low across the board.

Onokatsu	Ms1	Chiyosakae
Tenshoho	Ms2	Yuma
Kitadaichi	Ms3	Tochimusashi
Tsukahara	Ms4	Kotodaigo
Nabatame	Ms5	Kototebakari
Kayo	Ms6	Hokutomaru
Kotokuzan	Ms7	Daishomaru
Dewanoryu	Ms8	Satorufuji
Kiryuko	Ms9	Tokunomusashi
Wakaikari	Ms10	Hananoumi
Hokutenkai