Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Seiyashi 4,071]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Arguments in favor of Asanoyama:

Nishikigi only had one sanyaku opponent Asanoyama didn't, so really Nishikigi's schedule wasn't all that different from Asanoyama's considering the higher rank. 

Asanoyama returned to the tournament after taking some time off, scoring a KK he didn't have when he left.  I think the Kyokai *really* likes this when it happens.

Can't check this at the moment but IIRC Asanoyama had a lot more double digit opponents, while Nishikigi fought mostly joi members. 

The one similar precedent is Mitakeumi and his sanshō some years ago, but I recall his sanshō being divisive. Some voted for him for the reason you stated, others thought the withdrawal should count against him. Guess we'll see whether the Kyokai was for or against. 

[Gurowake 3,922]

The last two spots in Makuuchi should be between Myogiryu, Endo, Hokuseiho, Tokihayate, and Tohakuryu.  The first three have demotable records and the last two are those who can reasonably take their place.  I don't have much doubt that Takerufuji will get promoted ahead of all of these guys; by the numbers he's even ahead of Roga and Daiamami.  While I agree that if it were close I'd bet against Takerufuji getting the slot, I really don't think it's that close.

As to which of the 5 rikishi get the last two spots?  I think the Juryo rikishi end up not promoted because all the demotions are marginal, and obviously Myogiryu gets the first spot.  Between Endo and Hokuseiho I'd say it's a toss-up.  Strictly by the numbers it would go to Endo, but there's a bias against demoting people with 3 or less wins the full extent of their by-the-numbers amount.

[Gurowake 3,922]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Can't check this at the moment but IIRC Asanoyama had a lot more double digit opponents, while Nishikigi fought mostly joi members. 

Totally incorrect.  The only double-digit hiramaku that Asanoyama fought Nishikigi fought too.  Asanoyama's fusenpai was against Onosato, but the latter's rank shouldn't matter at all.  I haven't done a full computation, but in general it appears the maegashira aite ranks are roughly in line with the difference in ranks of the two candidates.

[Gurowake 3,922]

The last spot in Juryo should be between Chiyomaru, Chiyosakae, Kitadaichi, and TOnokatsu .  I don't think they'll reach down that deep into Makushita for people to fill these slots.  The promotion of Enho and Takayoshitoshi in Hatsu 2018 had Juryo rikishi with far more unsalvageable records.  Between Chiyomaru and Chiyosakae, I'd give the edge to Chiyomaru simply because a 5-10 demoted 5 slots looks a lot better than a 6-9 demoted 1 slot, IMO.

 

Edited January 28 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,922]

13 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

While I agree that if it were close I'd bet against Takerufuji getting the slot, I really don't think it's that close.

Not that I think this matters a ton, but Takerufuji also beat Tokihayate on Day 15.  I'll also note that Takerufuji's only losses were to rikishi who are also getting promoted.

[Koorifuu 886]

45 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

As to which of the 5 rikishi get the last two spots?  I think the Juryo rikishi end up not promoted because all the demotions are marginal, and obviously Myogiryu gets the first spot.  Between Endo and Hokuseiho I'd say it's a toss-up.  Strictly by the numbers it would go to Endo, but there's a bias against demoting people with 3 or less wins the full extent of their by-the-numbers amount.

On the other hand, there was some understanding that kyujo rikishi are treated more harshly than those who show up and lose, which would factor against Hokuseiho. Or was this disproven as a myth and I missed it?

[Reonito 1,335]

10 hours ago, maglor said:

So.... what are we doing about that last Juryo spot? Keep 5-10 J12 Chiyomaru, 6-9 J14 Chiyosakae, or promote Ms8 6-1 Onokatsu?

Keep Chiyomaru, I think.

[Gurowake 3,922]

37 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

On the other hand, there was some understanding that kyujo rikishi are treated more harshly than those who show up and lose, which would factor against Hokuseiho. Or was this disproven as a myth and I missed it?

Kyujo rikishi *who don't come back* are treated harsher.  Kyujo rikishi who come back and get some wins tend to be treated normally, if not better, to encourage people to do so.

[Reonito 1,335]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Up to 6 exchanges may happen: Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Hokuseihō, and possibly Endō. The corresponding promotions would be Nishikifuji, Kitanowaka, Rōga, Daiamami, Tōhakuryū, and possibly Takerufuji. My bet is that Endō is saved despite being eminently demotable, and Takerufuji has to wait one more basho for promotion because of how lowly-ranked he is, for 5 exchanges total.

Takerufuji by the numbers has a substantially better case than Tohakuryu (M16e vs. J1w) and I think that'll be enough to overcome the rank difference. I also think Endo stays, just over the other guy.

[Reonito 1,335]

8 hours ago, Hakuryuho said:

So happy for Kitaharima, last time he was in Juryo was in Aki 2020 and has been relentlessly fighting to regain sekitori status.
Gonna be at least 27 basho as a sekitori for him now, so very close to being kabu-eligible. 

Also ties the record with a 9th career juryo promotion!

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Not that I think this matters a ton, but Takerufuji also beat Tokihayate on Day 15.  I'll also note that Takerufuji's only losses were to rikishi who are also getting promoted.

Heck, Tokihayate has a half-rank better case than Tohakuryu

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I'm tempted to argue for only four M<->J exchanges as the version with the best optics.

Daiamami will become the 48th rikishi to go up to the top division for the sixth time in his career. With Haru Basho being his 12th makuuchi appearance, he's currently among those with the shortest total tenures on that list - his bottom-dweller company comprises Azumaryu (11 basho in 7 stints), Tamaasuka (12 in 7), and Kitazakura (12 in 6). Everybody else had at least 17.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Keep Chiyomaru, I think.

Yeah I'll throw a vote behind Chiyomaru, and I kept talking myself into sliding Onokatsu down half a rank, converging on Ms2w although if I ran the sport I would probably stick him in Juryo.

[Gurowake 3,922]

Endo/Hokuseiho	J1	Tokihayate(10-5 J6e)
Tohakuryu(8-7 J2w)	J2	Takarafuji(6-9 M16e)
Mitoryu(7-8 J1w)	J3	Tomokaze(5-10 M15e)
Kagayaki(9-6 J7e)	J4	Oshoma(8-7 J5w)
Bushozan(4-11 M16w)	J5	Hakuyozan(10-5 J10w)
Shirokuma(8-7 J6w)	J6	Chiyoshoma(7-8 J5e)
Hidenoumi(10-5 J11w)	J7	Daishoho(9-6 J9w)
Asakoryu(8-7 J9e)	J8	Shishi(7-8 J7w)
Aoiyama(0-7 M17w)	J9	Wakatakakage(7-0 Ms1w)
Shimanoumi(6-9 J8e)	J10	Tamashoho(4-11 J4e)
Shiden(6-9 J8w)	J11	Oshoumi(8-7 J13w)
Kotoeko(3-10 J4w)	J12	Tsushimanada(5-2 Ms2e)
Akua(6-9 J11e)	J13	Hakuoho(6-1 Ms5w)
Kitaharima(4-3 Ms2w)	J14	Chiyomaru(5-10 J12e)

 

I'm staying away from Makushita predictions from now on.

Edited January 28 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,335]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm staying away from Makushita predictions from now on.

I like to get a sense for the makushita top 10.

Juryo dropouts: Tenshoho, Chiyosakae, Yuma, Tochimusashi

KK incumbents: none!

MK incumbents: Kayo, Satorufuji

Promotions: 6-1 Ms8 Onokatsu. 5-2 Ms11-12 Tsukahara, Kotodaigo, Nabatame. 4-3 Ms6 Kitadaichi, Ms8 Kototebakari, Ms9 Hokutomaru

Seems like 6 definites and 7 possibles whom I'm not sure how to rank-order across the different categories.

[Reonito 1,335]

I hope Kototebakari makes it to add some spice to the upper ranks that otherwise aren't going to generate a lot of excitement. I guess Kayo, Satorufuji, and of course Onokatsu are promising. I haven't quite figured out why Kototebakari isn't doing even better. It seems like he lacks the ability to get "heavy" against bigger, tougher opponents. May be just adding strength and size as he matures; he certainly quick and has a lot of technique.

[Ack! 433]

11 hours ago, Ripe said:

Shouldn't Hokuseiho be behind Endo in demotion lineup? "Just" three more wins from 11 ranks down doesn't seem like enough...

 

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Not by the numbers? Hokuseihō at 2-13 computes to M19, while Endō computes to M18. Hokuseihō will get pushed first before Endō, especially since there's precedent for saving a 5-10 M13 but not a 2-13 M8.

I kinda agree with both of you.  Because demotions with 13 losses rarely go by the numbers, I was thinking it's a tossup between the two.  By the numbers, Endo computes to M18w while Hokuseiho computes to M19e, so it's a squeaker.  History shows a number of cases similar to Endo's indicating he could stay.  There's very little relevant data on Hokuseiho's case for comparison, but what is there doesn't seem to offer any hope for him, so history would seem to favor Endo fairly strongly.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Aoiyama(0-7 M17w) J9 Wakatakakage(7-0 Ms1w)

There would be a pleasing symmetry to that: maku'uchi wrestler with no wins this time would be sharing a rank with a makushita guy with no losses. Quite rare I would imagine.

On the questions being discussed it looks to me that Endo gets the last maku'uchi place while Chiyomaru will be the last man in juryo. I don't think that the fact that both men are hugely popular will hurt their cases.

[Koorifuu 886]

Alright, my first attempt at juryo is considerably different to Gurowake's this time, up until J11... So his is definitely more reliable than mine. Looks like I'm essentially just sticking it to the maegashira demotees a bit harder, but that's it. Come to think about it, i.e. overdemoting Bushozan in order not to underpromote Hidenoumi and Shirokuma (like below) is probably not happening, but might as well post it here just for reference later in case I'm shockingly right. 

Tokihayate (10-5 J6e)	J1	Tohakuryu(8-7 J2w)
Endo/Takarafuji	J2	Mitoryu(7-8 J1w)
Takarafuji/Hokuseiho	J3	Tomokaze(5-10 M15e)
Kagayaki(9-6 J7e)	J4	Oshoma(8-7 J5w)
Hakuyozan(10-5 J10w)	J5	Shirokuma(8-7 J6w)
Chiyoshoma(7-8 J5e)	J6	Hidenoumi(10-5 J11w)
Daishoho(9-6 J9w)	J7	Bushozan(4-11 M16w)
Asakoryu(8-7 J9e)	J8	Shishi(7-8 J7w)
Wakatakakage(7-0 Ms1w)	J9	Shimanoumi(6-9 J8e)
Shiden(6-9 J8w)	J10	Aoiyama(0-7 M17w)
Tamashoho(4-11 J4e)	J11	Oshoumi(8-7 J13w)
Kotoeko(3-10 J4w)	J12	Tsushimanada(5-2 Ms2e)
Akua(6-9 J11e)	J13	Hakuoho(6-1 Ms5w)
Kitaharima(4-3 Ms2w)	J14	Chiyomaru(5-10 J12e)

Edited January 29 by Koorifuu

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

My main question at the top of juryo is, with Hokuseiho and Takarafuji being mathematically tied (and I do think Hokuseiho will be the one to get shunted down), how much are they going to split them up? If Toki and Toha aren't the J1s, then the most likely outcome is a substantial gap between the two, and more than one rank between them doesn't seem likely.

[Sue 483]

Aoiyama has a differential of -15 at makujiri... and there are only 14 ranks in Juryo. Is he in any danger of landing all the way down at Ms1?

[Wakawakawaka 136]

Last time M > Ms happened was 1928. So no. Worst landings from last rikishi in Makuuchi with 0 wins was J12.

Edited January 29 by Wakawakawaka

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

Is there still a community expectation of not posting top-42 rankings before GTB is finalized? I've been trying to adhere to this which is why I stop doing "official" updates after day 14 and the update for day 15 looks nonsensical until you get down to 46 or 48. But if expectations have shifted (which I would consider a positive) I wouldn't mind doing plausible day 15 posts as well......

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

56 minutes ago, Sue said:

Aoiyama has a differential of -15 at makujiri... and there are only 14 ranks in Juryo. Is he in any danger of landing all the way down at Ms1?

It's not possible. One cannot be demoted 2 divisions down.

[Reonito 1,335]

17 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Is there still a community expectation of not posting top-42 rankings before GTB is finalized? I've been trying to adhere to this which is why I stop doing "official" updates after day 14 and the update for day 15 looks nonsensical until you get down to 46 or 48. But if expectations have shifted (which I would consider a positive) I wouldn't mind doing plausible day 15 posts as well......

I don't see an issue with it, especially given the giant mess this banzuke is going to be. It's not like they can "just" order everyone by the numbers and have a legal and sane banzuke, and on top of that, there are so many ties that aren't at all obvious how to break.