Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Putting yesterday's coin flip percentages for the specific scenarios against those after today's results:

after Day 12                                                   after Day 13
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
12.5%    14-1 outright  (Kotonowaka)                            0%

 3.125%  13-2 two-way   (Terunofuji + Kotonowaka)               6.25%
 3.125%  13-2 two-way   (Kirishima  + Kotonowaka)               0%
 3.125%  13-2 two-way   (Hoshoryu   + Kotonowaka)               0%

28.125%  13-2 outright  (Kotonowaka)                           18.75%
 9.375%  13-2 outright  (Terunofuji)                           18.75%
 9.375%  13-2 outright  (Kirishima)                            25%
 9.375%  13-2 outright  (Hoshoryu)                              0%

 6.25%   12-3 three-way (Terunofuji + Kirishima + Kotonowaka)  12.5%
 6.25%   12-3 three-way (Terunofuji + Hoshoryu  + Kotonowaka)   6.25%
 6.25%   12-3 three-way (Kirishima  + Hoshoryu  + Kotonowaka)   6.25%
 3.125%  12-3 three-way (Terunofuji + Kirishima + Hoshoryu)     6.25%

Altogether +9.375% for the three-way scenario, -3.125% for the two-way playoff, and -6.5% for outright victories.

Additionally, 25% combined probability of an outright victory went from Kotonowaka and Hoshoryu to Terunofuji and Kirishima.
 

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

1/4 Kirishima and Terunofuji win, the yusho is a straight fight between them, 1/8 probability for each.

1/4 Terunofuji wins, Kirishima loses -> 1/16 Terunofuji yusho, 1/16 Kotonowaka yusho, 1/16 two-way playoff between them, 1/16 3-way playoff w/ Hoshoryu Kirishima.

1/4 Kirishima wins, Terunofuji loses -> 1/8 Kirishima yusho, 1/8 3-way playoff, 50:50 whether the 3rd is Hoshoryu/Kotonowaka.

1/4 Kirishima and Terunofuji lose -> 1/8 Kotonowaka yusho, 1/8 3-way playoff, 50:50 whether the 3rd is Terunofuji/Kirishima.

31.25% Kirishima, 30.2% Terunofuji, 30.2% Kotonowaka, 8.35% Hoshoryu (30/96, 29/96, 29/96, 8/96).

Yet another way to look at the four scenarios created by tomorrow's possible results...

Day 15 matchups with potential W-L's (same scenario order as in the quoted comment):

• Scenario 1: Teru 12-2 vs Kiri 12-2, Hosho 10-4 vs Koto 11-3
• Scenario 2: Teru 12-2 vs Kiri 11-3, Hosho 10-4 vs Koto 12-2
• Scenario 3: Teru 11-3 vs Kiri 12-2, Hosho 11-3 vs Koto 11-3
• Scenario 4: Teru 11-3 vs Kiri 11-3, Hosho 11-3 vs Koto 12-2

Leads to:

• Terunofuji is guaranteed to enter Day 15 with possibility of yusho, and in 3 scenarios (1/2/3) it's in his own power to win
• Kirishima is guaranteed to enter Day 15 with possibility of yusho, and in 2 scenarios (1/3) it's in his own power to win
• Kotonowaka enters Day 15 with possibility of yusho in 3 scenarios (2/3/4), and in 2 of them (2/4) it's in his own power to win
• Hoshoryu enters Day 15 with possibility of yusho in 2 scenarios (3/4), and in 1 of them (4) it's in his own power to win

Unsurprisingly at one win behind three different leaders, Hoshoryu is the only one who isn't completely in charge of his own destiny anymore; he needs assistance either tomorrow (Kotonowaka defeating Kirishima) or on senshuraku (Terunofuji defeating Kirishima).

Edit: Oof, and immediately made irrelevant by Hoshoryu's apparent kyujo...

Edited January 27 by Asashosakari

[Seiyashi 4,071]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Hearing Hoshoryu is kyujo, maybe unsurprising given the end of today's bout. I wasn't really considering him against Terunofuji a coin flip, but the Yokozuna's odd definitely just went up.

It's the smart move. He has nothing on the line, low odds at the yūshō, has a credible performance up to the kyūjō, and won't go kadoban next basho. 

Edited January 27 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,335]

Still-relevant scenarios:

1/2 Kirishima and Terunofuji win, the yusho is a straight fight between them, 1/4 probability for each.

1/2 Terunofuji wins, Kirishima loses -> 1/8 Terunofuji yusho, 1/8 Kotonowaka yusho, 1/8 two-way playoff between them, 1/8 3-way playoff w/ Kirishima.

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Ugh. Clueless people elsewhere have already been whining about Kotonowaka's schedule so far. If he beats Kirishima tomorrow, with Hoshoryu gone his list of potential senshuraku opponents for the possibly yusho-deciding (and at least playoff-clinching and definitely promotion-clinching) match would look like this:

M4e Tobizaru at 8-6 or 7-7
M5w Nishikigi at 8-6 or 7-7
M7w Asanoyama at 9-2-3 or 8-3-3
M8w Hiradoumi at 7-7
M9w Meisei at 9-5 or 8-6
M10e Tamawashi at 9-5 or 8-6
M10w Sadanoumi at 7-7
M11e Tsurugisho at 8-6 or 7-7
M12e Takanosho at 9-5 or 8-6
M17e Shimazuumi at 10-4 or 9-5

(I skipped Kinbozan, who could theoretically be 7-7, for obvious reasons.)

I guess more whining is a certainty even if he loses to Kirishima, since that would still leave the matter of his ozeki promotion potentially getting decided by that same opponent slate.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/sports/sumo/20240127-OYT1T50034/

Hōshōryū's kyūjō (now confirmed) and Terunofuji - Kirishima tomorrow immediately simplifies things.

After today, we have 2 12-2s (Teru + the winner of Kirishima - Kotonowaka) and 1 11-3.

If the 11-3 is Kotonowaka, then he's out of the running immediately, and the yūshō is a straight fight between Teru and Kirishima tomorrow with a 13-2 Y.

If it's Kirishima, then things are slightly messier since Terunofuji and Kotonowaka have already met. If Terunofuji beats Kirishima, then either Terunofuji wins the yūshō outright (if Kotonowaka loses) or goes to a playoff (if Kotonowaka wins). If Kirishima beats Terunofuji, then either Kirishima hands Kotonowaka the yūshō outright if Kotonowaka beats his maegashira opponent tomorrow (having gone through all the sanyaku and joi already), or sends Terunofuji and Kotonowaka to a playoff if Kotonowaka loses.

So on pure coin tosses:

37.5% Terunofuji outright yūshō (+ 12.5% from playoff)
25% Kirishima outright yūshō
25% Terunofuji - Kotonowaka playoff 
12.5% Kotonowaka outright yūshō (+12.5% from playoff)

Good ending to the basho, IMO.

Edited January 27 by Seiyashi

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Lower Division Yusho races

Juryo --> Takerufuji (11-2), Nishikifuji (9-4), Roga (9-4), Kitanowaka (9-4), Tokihayate (9-4), Hakuyozan (9-4)

Leader Takerufuji did slip up for two days, but regained his composure and is clearly the front runner. He only needs one win in the next two days to seal the deal. He has already gone against 3 of the 5 wrestlers chasing him, but he is matched against a 6-7 Chiyosakae for day 14. The implications for this matchup does carries weight. The yusho on the line for Takerufuji, or a chance to live another day in Juryo as makekoshi means back to the 3rd division for Chiyosakae, he is J14E

Makushita --> Wakatakakage (7-0) Y

As is already being discussed in the promotion topics, Wakatakakage is seemingly 100% in shape now, 7-0 at the top rung of the third division is no easy feat, but we'll now see him in the salaried ranks once again

Sandanme --> Fujiseiun (7-0) Y

Fujiseiun returned to the dohyo after injury last year, and likely be ranked in the upper mid-Makushita division next basho

Jonidan --> Aonishiki (7-0) vs Chiyotaiko (7-0)

I had originally thought they would pair Chiyotaiko with Anhibiki, but they instead had him go instead against Hakuomaru who was 5-1. Nevertheless, Chiyotaiko was victorious, forcing a playoff in the 5th division

Jonokuchi --> Anhibiki (7-0) Y

Much to the chagrin of a lot of Banzuke 20th wave surfers, Anhibiki started off on the right path and has emerged as the yusho winner after the original assumption he would be matched with Chiyotaiko in Jonidan. Although not Chiyotaiko, he was matched with a 5-1 Jonidan opponent in Asashorei. By winning, he avoided a 3-way playoff that could have given Kyokukaiyu a chance at revenge for day 1

 

[specialweek 2 136]

Kotonowaka will get an easier run to ozeki promotion with day 15 opponent choices limited as Hoshoryu sits out.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

1 hour ago, specialweek 2 said:

Kotonowaka will get an easier run to ozeki promotion with day 15 opponent choices limited as Hoshoryu sits out.

That'll be true if he beats Kiri, but I don't think it's so true if he loses tonight. A lot of people (myself included) figured he had at least decent odds to make ozeki with twelve wins and 32 overall in his last three, but the view of those making the decision could well change if he loses to Teru and Kiri and then gets to 32 by beating, like, Tobizaru.

[Chartorenji 235]

3 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Jonokuchi --> Anhibiki (7-0) Y

Much to the chagrin of a lot of Banzuke 20th wave surfers, Anhibiki started off on the right path and has emerged as the yusho winner after the original assumption he would be matched with Chiyotaiko in Jonidan. Although not Chiyotaiko, he was matched with a 5-1 Jonidan opponent in Asashorei. By winning, he avoided a 3-way playoff that could have given Kyokukaiyu a chance at revenge for day 1

 

That is 3 Jonokuchi Yusho in 4 basho for Ajigawa Heya. Creating a good core group of Rikishi. 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 14

Makuuchi
12-2: Y1e Terunofuji, S1e Kotonowaka
11-3: Ō1e Kirishima

Hōshōryū's kyūjō today and the Kirishima - Kotonowaka bout ensured that there would be at least 2 rikishi on 12-2 by the end of the day, eliminating all 4-loss rikishi from the yūshō race. Thus ends Ōnosato's participation in the arasoi, earlier than Hakuōhō who lasted until a bout with Hōshōryū on senshūraku in Nagoya 2023.

Tomorrow's matches are Terunofuji v Kirishima and Kotonowaka v 7-7 Tobizaru. The possibilities are as follows:

Terunofuji and Kotonowaka win: playoff between Terunofuji and Kotonowaka
Terunofuji and Tobizaru win: Terunofuji yūshō
Kirishima and Kotonowaka win: Kotonowaka yūshō
Kirishima and Tobizaru win: 12-3 yūshō line, tomoesen amongst Terunofuji, Kotonowaka, and Kirishima

Terunofuji must be considered the favourite, having a 10-0 lockout H2H against Kirishima, whereas Kotonowaka is only 7-6 against a Tobizaru motivated to get his KK. What might tip the balance is Kirishima's motivation to stay in yokozuna contention by at least securing a 12-3 JY.

Jūryō

12-2: J10e Takerufuji

Takerufuji sealed the yūshō today by maintaining his 2-win lead above his closest competitors, who today were whittled down to Kitanowaka and Tokihayate. Not that it mattered, since the 2-win lead with one day to go means that it's mathematically impossible to catch him now.

That makes for an impressive sekitori debut for Isegahama's latest sensation, who at this point boasts a career record of 55-8, and never dropping more than 2 losses in a single basho to date.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 14

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

Next	Result	Next	Rank	Next	Result	Next
O	12-2	Terunofuji	Y
O	11-3	Kirishima	O	Hōshōryū	10-4	O
			O	Takakeishō	2-2-10	X
O	12-2	Kotonowaka	S	Daieishō	8-6	O
X	2-4-8	Takayasu	K	Ura	5-9	X
O	9-5	Wakamotoharu	M1
			M2	Abi	8-6	1
			...
X	7-7	Tobizaru	M4
			M5	Nishikigi	8-6	~
			...
			M7	Asanoyama	9-2-3	~

Demotion queue: Takayasu, Ura
Promotion queue: Wakamotoharu, Abi, Asanoyama, Nishikigi, Tobizaru

All senior sanyaku are safe, although Takakeishō will be kadoban. Daieishō secured his KK today to also secure his sekiwake rank alongside Kotonowaka, who may or may not be vacating it for promotion to ōzeki. Both komusubi will be vacating their slots, and the only viable candidates will be Wakamotoharu (who at M1 has done enough to force an extra slot even if no regular slots opened) and Abi. 

The spanner in the works is whether Kotonowaka will be promoted to ōzeki. Currently at 32 wins and in yūshō contention, he may already have done enough, and having "merely" Tobizaru to face tomorrow may well make it easier for him to hit the classical 33 as well as to get to at least a playoff if not win the yūshō outright. If Kotonowaka is indeed promoted to ōzeki, then we have 3 sanyaku slots to fill rather than 2.

In that case, Wakamotoharu may well reclaim his sekiwake berth, being the best performing KK south of the sanyaku, and Abi would speak for one komusubi slot. It's then a toss-up between Tobizaru, Nishikigi, and Asanoyama for the last komusubi slot, being the only KKs in anywhere near joi range. Currently, both Nishikigi and Asanoyama compute to M3 and can go to M2 with a win tomorrow, whereas the best Tobizaru can do is M3 and only if he beats Kotonowaka tomorrow.

I'd say Tobizaru is irrelevant for a third sanyaku slot mainly because he is likely going to be MK in the scenario where that slot is necessary in the first place, and even if he wins he can only match Nishikigi and Asanoyama if they both lose, so it's between Nishikigi and Asanoyama. Ignoring tomorrow's results, my rational money is slightly on Nishikigi because he has had the much harder schedule, but my irrational money says Asanoyama's coming back from kyūjō, lineup against Daieishō, greater skill ceiling and hailing from earthquake-affected Tōyama may well give him the edge.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

X	2-4-8	Hokuseihō	M8
			...
			M12	Myōgiryū	4-10	1
			M13	Endō	5-9	1
			M14
X	5-9	Tomokaze	M15
X	5-9	Takarafuji	M16	Bushōzan	4-10	X
			M17	Aoiyama	0-7-7	X
1	7-7	Daiamami	J1	Mitoryū	7-7	1
O	9-5	Nishikifuji	J2	Tōhakuryū	7-7	~
O	9-5	Rōga	J3	Kitanowaka	10-4	O
			...
1	10-4	Tokihayate	J6
			...
1	12-2	Takerufuji	J10

Demotion queue: Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Hokuseihō, Endō, Myōgiryū
Promotion queue: Nishikifuji, Rōga, Kitanowaka, Daiamami, Mitoryū, Tokihayate, Takerufuji, Tōhakuryū

This may well be a bumper crop for jūryō-makuuchi exchanges. No less than 5 makuuchi incumbents are demotable (with all prior 3 cases of 13-loss M8s being demoted to jūryō), with Myōgiryū and Endō both needing one win to be completely safe. On the jūryō side, there are 3 locks for promotion, 2 J1s who just need 1 win, 2 deep promotion cases who have arguably already made it by the numbers (Tokihayate and Takerufuji), and 1 hopeful who needs a win and for maximum results to go his way (i.e. some of the ones ahead of him losing). 

Hōshōryū's kyūjō means no visitors are needed, so there's no opportunity for exchange bouts. Both Myōgiryū and Endō are facing nigate tomorrow - Ichiyamamoto has a 4-2 H2H against Myōgiryū, while Mitakeumi has a 14-8 record over Endō, so there's a real possibility of up to 7 slots opening. 

On the jūryō side of the house, Daiamami meets 7-7 Shishi, Mitoryū should have an easy time against 5-9 Akua (10-5 H2H in Mitoryū's favour), Tokihayate and Takerufuji are dueling it out to make their case for deep promotion, and Tōhakuryū gets 5-9 Chiyomaru. 

Jūryō <-> makushita

1	5-9	Akua	J11
~	5-9	Chiyomaru	J12	Tenshōhō	5-9	~
X	4-10	Yūma	J13
~	6-8	Chiyosakae	J14	Tochimusashi	4-10	X
			Ms1	Wakatakakage	7-0	O
1	4-2	Tsushimanada	Ms2	Kitaharima	4-3	~
			...
~	3-3	Kiryūkō	Ms5	Hakuōhō	6-1	O

Demotion queue: Tochimusashi, Yūma, Chiyosakae (with a loss) Tenshōhō, Chiyomaru, Akua, Chiyosakae (with a win)
Promotion queue: Wakatakakage, Tsushimanada (with a win), Hakuōhō, Kitaharima, Kiryūkō (with a win), Ōnokatsu (with a win)

For how terrible the numbers are in this area of jūryō, it's surprising that there isn't greater clarity on the exchange picture, mostly because there isn't much promotion pressure. Only Wakatakakage and Hakuōhō present compelling cases at present, but Tsushimanada could still arguably jump Hakuōhō with a win tomorrow against fellow 4-2 Kototebakari. Kitaharima has a promotable record but not a compelling one (i.e. getting stuck at Ms1 next basho would not be an injustice), whereas Kiryūkō, hero of the bathhouse, and Ms8e Ōnokatsu could be outside cases but are frankly quite unlikely to be promoted this time. That makes for anywhere between 2 to 6 promotions, although realistically that's 2-4  (excluding Kiryūkō and Ōnokatsu). 

This means that while all of Tochimusashi, Yūma, Tenshōhō, and Chiyomaru have demotable records, only the former two are definitely going to be demoted regardless of tomorrow's result. There are too many moving parts even at this stage to say which of Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō, Chiyomaru, or Akua will go down, although it's likely that some of them will. Chiyosakae needs 1 win to have a hope of safety, and will be helped if both Chiyomaru and Tenshōhō post 5-10s which are definitely demotable. However, 6-9 J12s are not a surefire demotion case, and neither is 5-10 from J11. If for instance everyone else involved (both Chiyos, Tenshōhō, and Kiryūkō and Ōnokatsu down in makushita) loses, Akua may well be safe even if he also loses.

Tomorrow, Tenshōhō takes on KK-seeking Ōshōuma (Tenshōhō having won their 1 previous encounter), Chiyosakae takes on KK-seeking Shirokuma, Chiyomaru has KK- and promotion-seeking Tōhakuryū, and Akua also has nigate and KK- and promotion-seeking J1w Mitoryū. There is maximum tension here in jūryō, since 8 rikishi are playing for movement out of jūryō - albeit in different directions.

For completeness, Kotoeko picked up 1 win today to be safe from J4w, posting no worse than J12 regardless of the outcome tomorrow against Shiden. 

Edited January 27 by Seiyashi

[lackmaker 431]

"both Nishikigi and Asanoyama compute to M3 and can go to M2 with a win tomorrow,"

surely only to m4 with a loss.

Edited January 27 by lackmaker
grammar

[lackmaker 431]

how many wins are required to force a sanyaku slot from m1e?

[Seiyashi 4,071]

44 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

"both Nishikigi and Asanoyama compute to M3 and can go to M2 with a win tomorrow,"

surely only to m4 with a loss.

I meant currently they compute to M3, but the main point was that Tobizaru was almost certainly behind them. 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

41 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

how many wins are required to force a sanyaku slot from m1e?

Theoretically a KK will do. 

[Washuyama 635]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Kirishima and Tobizaru win: 12-3 yūshō line, tomoesen amongst Terunofuji, Kotonowaka, and Kirishima

If this happens, I would favor Kirishima for the Y.  I don't think Terunofuji's knees would handle that many tough matches in a row (and I may be way off here) but I think Kirishima would have more stamina than young Koto. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

5 hours ago, lackmaker said:

how many wins are required to force a sanyaku slot from m1e?

There will be no forced sanyaku slots this time around, even filling the required slots might result in some dramatic overpromotions.

[Reonito 1,335]

10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

For how terrible the numbers are in this area of jūryō, it's surprising that there isn't greater clarity on the exchange picture, mostly because there isn't much promotion pressure.

I actually think it's pretty clearly 4 up, 4 down, though which 4 get demoted is TBD. WTK, Hakuoho, Tsushimanada, Kitaharima all have records that lead to promotion all or most of the time, and there's room. Tochimusashi and Yuma are definitely toast, so it'll come down to which 2 of Chiyosakae, Tenshoho, Chiyomaru, and Akua end up worst off by the numbers after tomorrow. Akua can save himself with a win, but the other 3 can't. Given that they're not pitting Kiryuko against any of them, I don't think he has a shot (why else put him up against already doomed Yuma?) Akua's record is already not in the "can't keep" category, and if the other 3 all lose, they can keep Chiyomaru; there's precedent.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I actually think it's pretty clearly 4 up, 4 down, though which 4 get demoted is TBD. WTK, Hakuoho, Tsushimanada, Kitaharima all have records that lead to promotion all or most of the time, and there's room. Tochimusashi and Yuma are definitely toast, so it'll come down to which 2 of Chiyosakae, Tenshoho, Chiyomaru, and Akua end up worst off by the numbers after tomorrow. Akua can save himself with a win, but the other 3 can't. Given that they're not pitting Kiryuko against any of them, I don't think he has a shot (why else put him up against already doomed Yuma?) Akua's record is already not in the "can't keep" category, and if the other 3 all lose, they can keep Chiyomaru; there's precedent.

The fact that it took 4 lines and there's conditionals both ways is exactly what I meant by "no greater clarity". Only 2 confirmed demotees and everything else up in the air isn't sufficient clarity for my taste 

[Reonito 1,335]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Demotion queue: Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Hokuseihō, Endō, Myōgiryū
Promotion queue: Nishikifuji, Rōga, Kitanowaka, Daiamami, Mitoryū, Tokihayate, Takerufuji, Tōhakuryū

I don't think they'll drag up Tohakuryu, or the loser of Tokihayate-Takerufuji. Could be anywhere from 6 exchanges to 3 with some very lucky escapees.

[Asashosakari 18,784]

A word of appreciation for the matchups of the endangered juryo quartet: Everyone against a 7-7 opponent is exactly what I like to see when it's feasible at all.

Edited January 27 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,335]

Also, this thread is surprisingly quiet this basho

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Could be anywhere from 6 exchanges to 3 with some very lucky escapees

The winner of Tokihayate - Takerufuji should be in too, which makes it the minimum of 4.

[Reonito 1,335]

9 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

The winner of Tokihayate - Takerufuji should be in too, which makes it the minimum of 4.

I was debating if they'd make room for someone as low as Takerufuji if they have the option of extreme but not unprecedented leniency, but looking at it again, the winner ought to have a good enough case to push someone down. Don't think it's an absolute given if all the endangered incumbents get wins tomorrow.

[maglor 122]

So.... what are we doing about that last Juryo spot? Keep 5-10 J12 Chiyomaru, 6-9 J14 Chiyosakae, or promote Ms8 6-1 Onokatsu?