Hoshotakamoto

Math the Banzuke Hatsu 2024

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Well, I haven't had a chance to watch the broadcasts yet but 3 days in it seems reasonable to post a new edition of Math the Banzuke. I can't avoid these spoilers yet since I'm playing sumo game, but I'm omitting anyone in lower Juryo and further down at this time to give myself a chance to watch those matches with fresh eyes. Kirishima and Kotonowaka are receiving the benefit of the doubt although this does introduce some inconsistency as to whether I am saying a 3-0 rikishi should finish 15-0 or 9-6 (for most of the others, the implied finish is 9-6).

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I have to say this initial unstacking looks like a bit of a reset of the recent set of promotions and demotions.

 

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After day 4 we still have a clean delineation of 42 Makuuchi. I'm slowly unveiling some of the lower rikishi as they inch forward (translated: I still haven't had a chance to watch any of the live action).

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Easy to be charitable when promoting one sekiwake to Ozeki. No one got snubbed until I got all the way down to Tokihayate.

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Missed a few days but here's the math after day 7. My hunch that Dewanoryu might be due for a breakout seems to be on track.

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The charitable vibe continues to the bottom of Makuuchi and then halts abruptly when you cross the Juryo line.

I gave Wakatakakage the benefit of recent history (Takerufuji / Hakuyozan) although it could go sour if a few of those 3-4s convert into 8-7s.

I'm not sure if I've ever written Endo's name below the line, although that 0-7-8 last May left open the possibility. Aside from Onosato and Takerufuji moving up the ranks (and the projected Y/O promotions) this still has the general feel of moving backwards through time instead of forward.

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I've been pretty inconsistent this month - here's totals after 11 contests for the sekitori and after 5 contests for Ms. I didn't want to jump straight to 6 since this would be the last chance to visit odd numbered match totals before things are cemented.

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1 minute ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

This was one of the most remarkable one of these I can ever remember filling out mid-basho.

I just ... wow.

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obviously Aoiyama would not drop below Onokatsu - I was a little sloppy there. Chiyosakae would easily stay in if a scenario anything close to this unfolded as well.

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Yesterday's installment had everyone's records excluding what is now their most recent match. Today's installment is up-to-date and everyone has 12 (or 6) days of competition accounted for. I pulled Asanoyama and Kotoeko off the scrap heap since they are back to competing, and I tried to optimize the cutoff point to make room for Fujiseiun to appear at the bottom.

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Ok, anyone who saw the effort I put into various sections here would readily conclude that I had a singular fixation on getting Fujiseiun installed at Ms16. Lot of work went into building consistency in that part of the banzuke while the GTB portion occupied about 45 seconds of my attention.

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so to review my post-day-13 data unpacked to something like this. Obviously I didn't go overboard on effort for data that is no longer fresh. Notable that I had Kirishima at Y and Kotonowaka at S which based on newer data is more likely to end in both of them at Ozeki. This was the first and only projection for this month where I included M17w.

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In honor of Oshoumi earning his KK in Juryo, here are the stacked placements of the rikishi using the actual data from day 14. After the unstacked standings go up I'll do one more post that places everyone in their final spot if the day 15 result is identical to day 14 (congratulations to Kotonowaka and Tobizaru for both finding a way to win the same match). If they have the opposite result of day 14 ... well that should revert them to their day 13 standing in theory.

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Edited by Hoshotakamoto

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And here is the last installment of the "math" banzuke post day-14. There were massive holes at the bottom of makuuchi and juryo to fill up with promotees and lucky would-be demotees. I wonder what my dad will think when he looks for Takarafuji and finds Takerufuji in his place.

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Too bad.  My pipe dream was 1) Takarafuji goes to Juryo; 2) Takerufuji stays in Juryo; 3) both end next basho at 11-4; 4) Takerufuji vs Takarafuji in a playoff; 5) the spacetime rift created by Abi vs Ichiyamamoto is healed.

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11 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Too bad.  My pipe dream was 1) Takarafuji goes to Juryo; 2) Takerufuji stays in Juryo; 3) both end next basho at 11-4; 4) Takerufuji vs Takarafuji in a playoff; 5) the spacetime rift created by Abi vs Ichiyamamoto is healed.

1. is likely, 2. is possible (Punkrocker...)

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And here would be the hypothetical banzuke if most of the people in the top division had the same result tonight that they had last night. As a reminder, if they had the opposite result - well then that might send them back to their position at the end of Day 13 (but of course there are many variables in play that would change that calculation).

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Ok well after noticing that legitimate work is going up on Youtube and having a brief checkin with the community I've decided to go ahead with real day-15 data.

Usually I used my own interface that leans heavily on the work of @Chiyotasuke but for this debut installment I am using his official interface, hence the big pileup at J14w, and the M18 row which I won't use most of the time. Reminder that M18 is, at best, equivalent to J1, and may be considered J1.5 since the J17w slot will disappear with Kotonowaka's promotion.

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So I don't see room for loads of controversy in the unpacking before you get to this point (M8e). Have I lost a handful of GTB points? Possibly. Takayasu might have a stronger parachute than this. Hokutofuji also in play. But let's look at what decisions were made:

Teru / Kirishima / Hoshoryu / Takakeisho / Kotonowaka / Daieisho. I would say 100% confidence. Would they push Kotonowaka higher? I'm not aware that this has happened in the past 30 years, nor have I bothered to look.

Wakamotoharu, then Abi (99.9% confidence) There's really no room here to deviate.

Nishikigi, then Asanoyama. I consider this to be an extremely high, non-controversial pick as well. I'll say 90%. If any other names snuck in I would be very confused.

Ura / Atamifuji - those are just the next two names. It's a 1.0 demotion for 6-9 Ura, crossing over the K/M line, and a 0.5 demotion for 6-9 Atamifuji which seems to be more common these days. But it would be crazy to let Oho or Meisei get in ahead of them, and we're nowhere close to the Takayasu parachute discussion yet.

Oho / Meisei. This was like a 51-49 decision for me, and I went with Oho for the higher wins total. Could be wrong, could lose 4 GTB points this way.

Takanosho / Tobizaru / Midorifuji. Well obviously Tobizaru computes to the highest ranking but at 7-8 I don't think we can move him higher than M4e, so there he stays. Joi bias could propel Midorifuji up ahead of Takanosho turning his 5-10 into a -1.5 slot promotion. With the shift in sanyaku size that really looks more like a 2.0 slot promotion. So will they drop Midori 2 de facto slots instead of my project of 3, when the math says 5? They might. Will they involve Takayasu here? ehhhhhhhh, well you never know

Hiradoumi / Tsurugisho / Kinbozan / Gonoyama. Now that I've slightly talked myself out of Midorifuji falling 3 new slots, I'm even less enthusiastic about Gonoyama dropping 4 new slots. So maybe that will be shifted up. Meanwhile Kinbozan has the best mathematical ranking, but at 7-8 he must stay at M6e. Hiradoumi over Tsurugisho makes sense, and my rational for pushing down Gonoyama was that he didn't need to get treated too lightly. But now I'm not so sure they won't go that route. Here is also a very opportune spot for them to drop in Takayasu and blow up my predictions.

Onosato / Tamawashi / Onosho. These would have been 8w, 9e, 9w. Basically just the next few names lined up, all of whom were KK. For this exercise, my "first" banzuke, I'll go ahead and leave them in here. Likely in subsequent simulations there will be better positioning for the crew that's coming up in my next post.

 

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So just to fill this group out, here are the top 42 for this iteration. This may not be a high scoring entry, and it's unlikely to be my official entry, but here was the rough thinking.

In breaking ties, you are kindof being pulled in opposite directions by two rules of thumb. (1) 9-6 is better than 8-7, (2) harder competition is better than easier competition. My hypothesis in this simulation is that yes, a better winning record is better than a weaker winning record, however a losing record against harder competition emphasizes the "hard" part when compared to a losing record (or maybe even a winning record) against easier competition.

So for Hokutofuji / Takayasu / Kotoshoho / Shodai I didn't do anything fancy in this run, I just moved them into the next available slots.

With Ichiyamoto vs Mitakeumi I said well, 10-5 is probably better than 9-6, but maybe 5-10 is also better than 6-9. So that was one place I exercised this line of thinking.

Then the same thing for Shonannoumi and Sadanoumi, they started at M6w and M10w, they landed at the same place, but the parachuting effect favors the 4-11 over the 6-9?

And then I started trying to thread the needle by saying well clearly Ryuden at 3-12 gets the joi bias, clearly Nishikifuji loses the tiebreak coming up from Juryo, but maybe also Churanoumi at 7-8 should fall half a slot while Shimazuumi's 9-6 gives him ... 2nd place in the 4 way tiebreaker?

I'll actually be a bit interested to see where the committee lands on this argument. Of course I have decades of precedent to consult on the matter which I'll probably do for the 2nd iteration of this game.

And now we're into the part where we sort all these up-and-comers. I took Kitanowaka next, assumed Takerufuji will not get the Atamifuji diss from the days of Bushozan over Atamifuji (the yusho should help?), and I actually went with Daiamami over Roga taking an 8-7 over a 9-6 because .... well ... I guess 9-6 J3e just didn't inspire me whereas we knew 8-7 J1e was coming up. So maybe those two should be flipped. Maybe Myogiryu slides in ahead of one or both of them.

And then with Hokuseiho I jumped him over Endo / Tokihayate / Tohakuryu on the premise that an M8 would get favorable treatment. This assumption could turn out to be totally wrong.

 

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To finish this off here's where I put the Juryos on the 1st iteration. I looked at all those M's coming down and just thought well, sorry Tokihayate. Maybe on a subsequent iteration I'll find it in my heart to overdemote a Mitoryu here and there in order to matchup better with historical precedent.

My placement of Aoiyama might be too low, and I just used him as a tool here to ensure that Akua wasn't treated too lightly. I orchestrated the M14w rankings to force Onokatsu down into Ms2 for next month, but a more comprehensive look at Ms will come later, using my interface instead of the official one. I'm sure when the final calculations are done Bushozan will get off lighter than this.

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I didn't even notice I elevated Kirishima and Hoshoryu to Y2. That obviously will not stand, and subsequent postings will not have a Y2 line.

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In my official GTB submission I moved Meisei ahead of Oho, decided I didn't think they would drop Takayasu below Midorifuji so he got a bump from M9e in my math above to M4w in the submission I sent out. Hiradoumi remained at M5e and Midori dropped one full slot to kick out Tsurugisho at M5w. Kinbozan and Gonoyama remained intact and Tsurugisho re-entered at M7e for a +4.0 instead of a +5.5 at 9-6. Notice we still have to get through 4 more names before we get to the part where I had listed Takayasu originally.

I had Onosato M6w, Tamawashi M8e, and here I assumed Hokutofuji would get consideration over Onosho, who is now a +5.5 at 10-5 instead of +6.5. Finally Takayasu's move is no longer in play, but I did hold Shodai up ahead of Kotoshoho which I'm sure they will agree with in the official decision. I decided to drop Mitakeumi to M12e letting in Shonannoumi and Ryuden -- I also moved Shimazuumi ahead of Sadanoumi which I'm not sure I even realized went against the math. Finally I relegated Myogiryu, Takerufuji, and Endo to the bottom three slots, bumping Hokuseiho, and citing the Hakuoho precedent for placing Takerufuji lower than I wanted to put him (also his record against those higher juryos will probably silence any argument against bias that tends to favor the higher seeded incumbents).

None of this really relied on the analysis I wanted to do that goes into head to head historical ranking-record considerations -- I may end up posting more of that analysis later but my GTB was basically just me being in a hurry with 75 minutes before the deadline.

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I've deleted a couple speculative posts around day 13-14.5 so that my post-GTB commentary could fit on to Page 1 along with the banzuke submission that it references.

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