Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

55 minutes ago, dingo said:

Kotonowaka gets the shortest stick as Onosato is clearly the most capable of those three.

Perhaps, but I'm not all too sure that Kirishima will be handling Onosho well either.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

So far, Onosho has been launching from a higher angle at the tachiai -- in fact, almost standing up like many others do.  He also keeps a more upright stance during his bout.  As a result, he hasn't been getting slapped down (this is by far his bête noir).  How will this play out for the second half of the basho?

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Onosato might have the most controlled lateral movement I've ever seen on a big guy. And worse for his opponents, he's got the power to actually move them along with his own body when going in that direction. Made it look like Meisei wasn't clamping on to his arm, but merely holding on for dear life.

Edited January 22 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

If Onosato hadn't managed to hang on to Meisei's belt, he'd have been in a lot more trouble. Meisei looked like a problem fight because, where most guys kinda let Onosato run through them (or, to be more fair, don't quite understand the power he brings until he hits them for the first time), Meisei always comes to brawl. And he came a lot closer than anyone, non-bulldozer division, to beating the kid.

Onosato can win against Kotonowaka, but I'd still be surprised if he did. Koto's found his fight over the last year or so, and he's about Onosato's size, so he shouldn't get jacked backwards like most of Onosato's opponents. Onosato's so physically ridiculous that I'm usually inclined to give him at least 50/50 odds if he can get into a balanced position, but Kotonowaka's one of the opponents where I don't expect that to be true at all. Equal size + more moves = probable win.

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

So far, Onosho has been launching from a higher angle at the tachiai -- in fact, almost standing up like many others do.  He also keeps a more upright stance during his bout.  As a result, he hasn't been getting slapped down (this is by far his bête noir).  How will this play out for the second half of the basho?

Adjustments create adjustments. If his opponents to come watch the tape and see this as being the difference in his success, what will they do in response? A higher angle means Onosho's hips are further in. For a guy like Kirishima, I'd imagine (on a very basic level) the goal would be to withstand the charge and view the higher angle as a better opportunity to take the belt. If he's able to do that, Onosho's probably toast. 

But if you look at Onosho's opposition so far, it's not exactly Murderer's Row. He showed Onosato what's up, but beyond that, he was robbed of his only other potential challenge by Asanoyama's kyujo. He could still pose a problem for Kiri, but he's never faced Ozeki Kiri, who's a bit of a different animal. Onosho might have found a great approach that will see some success even against the top ranks, but he could also spend the next few days getting reminded he's not on that level before sailing back down to face high/mid-maegashira opponents.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

So far, Onosho has been launching from a higher angle at the tachiai -- in fact, almost standing up like many others do.  He also keeps a more upright stance during his bout.  As a result, he hasn't been getting slapped down (this is by far his bête noir).  How will this play out for the second half of the basho?

22.48% of his defeats by slap down. Crikey! That is a very telling stat. I am sure that a lot of opponents decided "take a step, give him a slap on the back, he will fall over". When he broke into the top division I thought he was a better prospect than Takakeisho, who is the same age and has a similar physique, but it's pretty hard to establish yourself as a top guy if you can't stay on your feet.

The change in the tachiai that you spotted may be paying off... but it could just be that he is racking up exactly the kind of score that we might expect from him at M14.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

22.48% of his defeats by slap down. Crikey! That is a very telling stat. I am sure that a lot of opponents decided "take a step, give him a slap on the back, he will fall over". When he broke into the top division I thought he was a better prospect than Takakeisho, who is the same age and has a similar physique, but it's pretty hard to establish yourself as a top guy if you can't stay on your feet.

The change in the tachiai that you spotted may be paying off... but it could just be that he is racking up exactly the kind of score that we might expect from him at M14.

He had the knee injury that interrupted his rise in 2018, and his balance seemed off ever since he came back, showing only occasional flashes of the only guy in the modern era to debut in makuuchi with 3 straight double-digit-win tournaments. We'll never know if he would have been better than Takakeisho without that injury.

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

5 hours ago, dingo said:

Kotonowaka gets the shortest stick as Onosato is clearly the most capable of those three. 

I don't disagree, but it's kind of funny to describe a Sekiwake drawing a freshly minted Makuuchi at the bottom of the draw as getting the short end of the stick.

And as smoothly as Onosato has cruised by thus far, facing a Sekiwake at the end of the day while holding on to a share of a lead is sure to be a different type of pressure for him. It'll be fun to see what transpires in any event. 

Edited January 22 by Kaninoyama

[Katooshu 3,135]

I think Kotonowaka should have enough resilience to survive for a throw or to pull Onosato to the side and the push him out from behind, but Ono is so powerful with his charge he's a threat to just blast Kotonowaka out too. I like the clash - two huge guys, one explosive and aggressive, the other relatively laid back but technically very sharp. At this stage I learn toward Koto's using his extra polish and experience to turn Ono's power against him.

Edited January 23 by Katooshu

[Katooshu 3,135]

2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

If Onosato hadn't managed to hang on to Meisei's belt, he'd have been in a lot more trouble. Meisei looked like a problem fight because, where most guys kinda let Onosato run through them (or, to be more fair, don't quite understand the power he brings until he hits them for the first time), Meisei always comes to brawl. And he came a lot closer than anyone, non-bulldozer division, to beating the kid.

Onosato can win against Kotonowaka, but I'd still be surprised if he did. Koto's found his fight over the last year or so, and he's about Onosato's size, so he shouldn't get jacked backwards like most of Onosato's opponents. Onosato's so physically ridiculous that I'm usually inclined to give him at least 50/50 odds if he can get into a balanced position, but Kotonowaka's one of the opponents where I don't expect that to be true at all. Equal size + more moves = probable win.

Adjustments create adjustments. If his opponents to come watch the tape and see this as being the difference in his success, what will they do in response? A higher angle means Onosho's hips are further in. For a guy like Kirishima, I'd imagine (on a very basic level) the goal would be to withstand the charge and view the higher angle as a better opportunity to take the belt. If he's able to do that, Onosho's probably toast. 

But if you look at Onosho's opposition so far, it's not exactly Murderer's Row. He showed Onosato what's up, but beyond that, he was robbed of his only other potential challenge by Asanoyama's kyujo. He could still pose a problem for Kiri, but he's never faced Ozeki Kiri, who's a bit of a different animal. Onosho might have found a great approach that will see some success even against the top ranks, but he could also spend the next few days getting reminded he's not on that level before sailing back down to face high/mid-maegashira opponents.

Meisei was blasted out in about 2 seconds. I get what you mean because he managed to move laterally as well rather than just backward like most opponents, but I wouldn't say he came a lot closer to beating Onosato than the others when he still didn't come close at all.

Edited January 23 by Katooshu

[Benevolance 2,478]

I still think of Endo as that young kid, but he is approaching mid-30's. I kept expecting him to break into the sanyaku as a regular, but it's never happened. I wouldn't be entirely surprised that he's ready to move on. That's over a decade in Makuuchi. I think it's a bit of a shame that he never got a real shikona, however. 

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

3 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Meisei was blasted out in about 2 seconds. I get what you mean because he managed to move laterally as well rather than just backward like most opponents, but I wouldn't say he came a lot closer to beating Onosato than the others when he still didn't come close at all.

I suppose I'm defining "closer" in this case as giving himself a chance to win that Onosato actively had to prevent. Onosato showed considerable vulnerability with opponents who got outside of his right arm in juryo, and he's clearly working on it—Kotoshoho and Oho both tried to get around to his right, but he got the arm out and basically blocked them with pure might. Endo had an idea to do it but got blasted so hard he didn't even get to start the tactic. Meisei's the only one so far who's genuinely gotten around Onosato's reach so that he can't get forearm blocked out of the ring, and Onosato only saved himself by getting hold of the belt. 

The fact Onosato is able to do this is what makes him so hard to beat. But Meisei followed the blueprint made by some of Onosato's juryo opponents, and he did it better than the others who have tried it so far.

To be clear, I'm not saying Meisei had a high-percentage chance of winning and got unlucky. The strategy needed to work perfectly and didn't. The difference between him and everyone else who tried to win through maneuvering is, like, 20% vs. 0%. But it's worth pointing out because he probably wins if Onosato misses the grab, and seeing that could open some strategic possibilities for the higher-level guys Onosato has to deal with now.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

No automatic promotion for Takerufuji anymore

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

36 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

No automatic promotion for Takerufuji anymore

14-1 would do it. Even 13-2 if he is lucky.

 

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

There were a lot of Takanosho's fingers in Tobizaru's mage. Kept waiting for a mono-ii, and it seems that Tobizaru was too. But it wasn't to be.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Is Daieishō trying out for the ballet? 

[Hankegami 412]

Good Day 10, y'all. Some short comments.

Terunofuji got 8 wins after sacking Kinbozan (literally) and he's now KK. This means that he's not going to pull an Onokuni anymore (7-8 in Aki 1989). I also believe that Teru is going to stick around until the end at this point - barring injuries. Who knows, he could even remain in the Yusho run despite everything. He's Teru, after all.

Kirishima got a hard run for his money against a pushy Onosho. He managed to resist and pull a hatakikomi nevertheless. Not dominant sumo, but he didn't get lucky either. He showed great, great resistance.

Kotonowaka schooled Onosato, showing that the latter cannot quite handle the san'yaku yet. The popular Four Tits keeps cruising strong, and I doubt that Oho is going to give him any trouble tomorrow. I also hope that the Committee is going to leave Oho be with Day 12, the poor lad is 6-4 and projected to go 6-5 tomorrow.

So, Kotonowaka is sole leader after today, and I doubt that he's going to lose his position before the very last days. I also think that he's going to have a hard go the last three days (13-14-15). Considering how things are shaping out, I believe we are going to get a regular finishing this time around. This means that his final three opponents are going to be Terunofuji (0-6 record), Kirishima (3-10 but also 1-8 in their last nine F2F), and Hoshoryu (6-10 but for once 3-0 in the last F2F), not necessarily in this order. By expecting Kotonowaka to arrive on Day 13 undefeated (11-1), he could even follow his previous records and pull off an Ozeki promotion with a 12-3 (32/3). However, we know that Four Tits is looking for a Yusho (Sumo Prime Time interview) so he's likely going to fight for that.

Among the runner-ups, the most unnerved is surely Kirishima with his Yusho & Yokozuna run. Tomorrow he starts facing the upper san'yaku with Daieisho (10-6 but also 5-1 in recent F2F) and, by the look of his match vs. Onosho from today, he's going to resist Daieisho's pushes once again. Day 12 is perhaps going to be Onosato and, by the look of the latter's bout vs. Kotonowaka, Kirby's chances to reach Day 13 with a 10-2 score are good. Now, Kirby holds a 10-3 record against Kotonowaka (see above), while his record against Hoshoryu is on balance (7-8 but 2-2 in their last four). Of course, his main problem is Teru (0-10). Ideally, Kirishima should go on a sweep unless the Yusho bar goes as low as 12-3, in which case he can afford one loss (but he still MUST win the tournament).

7 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Is Daieishō trying out for the ballet? 

IMHO he was somehow trying to break Hoshoryu's belt grip. Or he just panicked. For what I saw, Daieisho at first tried to counter Hoshoryu's grip with a grip of his own, but he failed to get one (he grasped Hosh's meaty side instead). Nephew then shoved him aside, and at this point Daieisho did his jump.

[RabidJohn 1,665]

Another great win by Tamawashi today. There is no comparison between him and the last 39-year-old we saw in makuuchi.
Not a bandage in sight, never had a day off(* ok?), and he shows no sign of nearing the end of his career.
I want to see him grab a 40th birthday yusho in November.

I'm quite surprised Onosato appears to have no yotsu to back up his awesome oshizumo. With his height and reach, I assumed he'd be at least competent on the belt. 
Nishonseki-san need to get at least a bit belt technique drummed into his deshi if he's really going to do well at the top.

I'm starting to get Kisenosato vibes from Kotonowaka. Not so much his style or physique, but the very familiar-feeling scenario of being the top Japanese rikishi with 3 Mongolians above him.
He's so close to getting his granddad's shikona now, and he's in the driver's seat for the yusho. Will he compound my feeling of déjà-vu by choking?

[Morty 1,480]

33 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm starting to get Kisenosato vibes from Kotonowaka.

 Will he compound my feeling of déjà-vu by choking?

Same. When I watch him I think of Kise, I'm not sure whether it is because he's big and has a similar style, but I've had that same feeling since he worked his way up. He seems equally as talented and with the physique to back it up.  I'd bet however his head is better than Kise's and that he won't choke anywhere near as much. I hope I'm right.

[Morning 74]

If Kotonowaka wins in the January tournament and is promoted to ozeki, would taking the March tournament give him a shot at yokozuna?

[Sakura 1,472]

4 minutes ago, Morning said:

If Kotonowaka wins in the January tournament and is promoted to ozeki, would taking the March tournament give him a shot at yokozuna?

No. He needs two basho as Ozeki

Edited January 23 by Sakura

[yorikiried by fate 1,989]

3 hours ago, Morty said:

Same. When I watch him I think of Kise, I'm not sure whether it is because he's big and has a similar style, but I've had that same feeling since he worked his way up. He seems equally as talented and with the physique to back it up.  I'd bet however his head is better than Kise's and that he won't choke anywhere near as much. I hope I'm right.

I haven't watched a whole lot in recent years, but this time around, I haven't missed a single day. That out of the way, I have a completely different impression of Kotonowaka. For me, he projects an air of inevitability, which is kinda backed up by his performance so far. This is not how I remember Kisenosato. The latter, instead, projected "could/should/would be" and a bunch of unnecessary drama – admittedly partly media made.

(Non-sarcastic) Question to the Kise fans of old: Did you ever feel safe?

[Calamityama 24]

48 minutes ago, yorikiried by fate said:

(Non-sarcastic) Question to the Kise fans of old: Did you ever feel safe?

Never. I remember seeing him in May 2016 with some Japanese friends, all of us despairing of seeing him promoted one day !

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

8 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

14-1 would do it. Even 13-2 if he is lucky.

Seiyashi will pick this up in the next day or two, but:

Under current circumstances, a lot would have to break right for even 14-1 to get him to makuuchi. It makes him promotion-eligible, obviously, but right now there's one locked demotion (Aoiyama), one essentially locked demotion (Tomokaze), and one likely demotion (Bushozan). Nishikifuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka are wrecking dudes right now in the juryo joi...

Joiyo? Juryoi?

Anyway, beyond them, Tokihayate also remains ahead of Takeru in the promotion math, and Toki v. Kitanowaka is the only match between the four of them that hasn't happened. I assume that if Takeru hits 14-1, Toki will lose at least a couple of matches and get bypassed, but I don't think 14-1 Takeru gets promoted ahead of 10+ wins from any of the other three, and they're all in a good position to do it, since they'll have breathing room even if they lose to Takeru (and Roga doesn't need to worry about this now).  And that's not taking into account the fact Daiamami also only needs 8-7 to get there (in theory Mitoryu does as well, but as it stands it looks pretty plausible that 8-7 for him will just get him shifted to J1E).

His most likely path to makuuchi is running the table, Daiamami and Mitoryu finishing MK, and Kitanowaka collapsing to 9-6 or worse (Nishikifuji, IMO, still gets moved up ahead of Takeru if he finishes 9-6, and it's hard to see Roga finishing worse than 10-5 at this point). Alternately, another spot could open if Endo and/or Myogiryu completely shit themselves, but they only need two wins in five days against a bunch of fellow strugglebus riders to stay safe. 

It could happen, for sure. But a lot is out of his control now.

[Katooshu 3,135]

Kotonowaka-Oho 

Ah yes, who to match against the next ozeki other than an M11 with consecutive losses who already isn't a serious yusho contender.

Edited January 23 by Katooshu

[dingo 1,160]

Everyone's known that for a while already, but Mitakeumi is really a shadow of his former self. Getting beaten on the belt by a fading Takarafuji is a clear sign of that.

Endo showing today that he's not quite ready to give up yet. The next days will show whether his late found effort is enough to avoid Juryo, but based on today it's not looking as bleak anymore.

Meisei is in a fine shape this basho. Nishikigi is usually better in longer bouts when he has time to get his engine going, but Meisei didn't give him an opportunity to settle in at all. Very overwhelming victory. 

I almost thought Atamifuji escaped but Tamawashi managed to pull another trick or if his mawashi. Tamawashi's has done plenty of unorthodox sumo this basho, at least for him, but it's worked. And even without resorting to henka or too many pulldowns. Great job by the veteran so far. 

Ura's sumo either works well or fails totally. There doesn't seem to be any in between. This time is just one of these bashos for him, but I'm sure he will bounce back eventually. 

Kotonowaka just smothered Onosato, shutting down every angle the rookie tried to get. Kotonowaka was extra careful, but also methodical watching Onosato very closely.

Hoshoryuu likewise manhandled Daieisho, absorbing the pushing attack and basically throwing out the sekiwake. Unfortunately it seems like Daieisho is as far from the ozeki rank as ever. 

Kirishima had to resort to a last ditch pulldown against powerful Onosho who almost had him. Not exactly yokozuna sumo, but paradoxically keeping his yokozuna run alive.