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Kintamayama

GTB invite- Hatsu 2024 --RESULTS!! 199 entries.

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My banzuke now comes in a much swaggier dark mode edition (Punkrocker...) (thank you @Chiyotasuke)

Y1e 0-0-15 Y1        
        Y2        
O1w 13-2 Y +0.5 O1 O2w 10-5 +1
        O2 O1e 9-6 -1.5
        O3        
S1e 9-6 S1 S2e 11-4 JK +0.5
        S2        
        S3        
M3e 10-5  ↑  K1 M1w
Ura
8-7  ↑ 
        K2        
        K3        
S1w 6-9  ↓  M1 M8w 11-4 JK +7
K1e
Abi
6-9  ↓  M2 M5w 9-6 +3
M4e 8-7 +1 M3 K1w 5-10  ↓ 
M3w 7-8 -0.5 M4 M2e 6-9 -2.5
M4w 7-8 -0.5 M5 M10e 10-5 +4.5
M7w 8-7 +1.5 M6 M1e 4-4-7 -5.5
M6e 7-8 -1 M7 M14w 11-4 JK +7
M7e 7-8 -1 M8 M11w 9-6 +3
M9w 8-7 +0.5 M9 M2w 4-11 -7
M12w 9-6 +2.5 M10 M11e 8-7 +0.5
M13w 9-6 +2.5 M11 M12e
Oho
8-7 +0.5
M6w 5-6-4 -5.5 M12 M9e 6-9 -3.5
M8e 5-10 -5 M13 M15w 9-6 +2
M5e 3-12 -9 M14 J1w 12-3  ↑ 
M14e 7-8 -1 M15 M13e 6-9 -2.5
J5e 12-3  ↑  M16 J2e 10-5  ↑ 
J2w 9-6  ↑  M17 J1e 8-7  ↑ 
Edited by #1HENKAFAN

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East Rank West
Terunofuji Y1  
Kirishima O1 Hoshoryu
Takakeisho O2  
Daieisho S1 Kotonowaka
Ura K1 Takayasu
Atamifuji M1 Gonoyama
Midorifuji M2 Wakamotoharu
Abi M3 Hokutofuji
Tobizaru M4 Nishikigi
Shodai M5 Ryuden
Kinbozan M6 Ichiyamamoto
Shonannoumi M7 Asanoyama
Hokuseiho M8 Mitakeumi
Hiradoumi M9 Tamawashi
Sadanoumi M10 Tsurugisho
Oho M11 Meisei
Myogiryu M12 Takanosho
Churanoumi M13 Endo
Onosho M14 Kotoshoho
Tomokaze M15 Bushozan
Takarafuji M16 Shimazuumi
Onosato M17 Aoiyama

I count that as 40 points if Asashosakari's guess is the actual banzuke.

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Putting Ichiyamamoto above Shonannoumi is the only decision i'm currently feeling twitchy about.

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
 

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East Rank West
Terunofuji Y1  
Kirishima O1 Hoshoryu
  O2 Takakeisho
Daieisho S1 Kotonowaka
Takayasu K1 Ura
Atamifuji M1 Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji M2 Abi
Gonoyama M3 Hokutofuji
Tobizaru M4 Shodai
Ryuden M5 Nishikigi
Kinbozan M6 Asanoyama
Shonannoumi M7 Ichiyamamoto
Hokuseiho M8 Hiradoumi
Mitakeumi M9 Meisei
Tamawashi M10 Sadanoumi
Tsurugisho M11 Oho
Takanosho M12 Myogiryu
Churanoumi M13 Endo
Onosho M14 Kotoshoho
Tomokaze M15 Onosato
Takarafuji M16 Bushozan
Shimazuumi M17 Aoiyama

 

First draft had Abi ahead of Midorifuji. I kind of let myself be talked into changing it. It may make more sense, but the committee has shown nothing but disrespect for Midorifuji so far and this is another free opportunity to hate on him. Seeing people put Wakamotoharu ahead of Atamifuji now, I think that makes sense too as something the committee would prefer to do, and is in line with underdemoting Abi and Hokutofuji.

Only other changes from first draft:

Moved Ryuden from M4e to M5e, behind Tobizaru and Shodai. I never considered Nishikigi a part of that tier. 

Swapped Ichiyamamoto and Asanoyama.

Edited by Kaito
Fixed Takakeisho's placement.

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Terunofuji(0-0 Ye) Y  
Kirishima(13-2 Ow) O Hoshoryu(10-5 Ow)
  O Takakeisho(9-6 Oe)
Daieisho(9-6 Se) S Kotonowaka(11-4 Se)
Takayasu(10-5 M3e) K Ura(8-7 M1w)
     
Wakamotoharu(6-9 Sw) M1 Atamifuji(11-4 M8w)
Abi(6-9 Ke) M2 Midorifuji(9-6 M5w)
Gonoyama(8-7 M4e) M3 Hokutofuji(5-10 Kw)
Tobizaru(7-8 M3w) M4 Shodai(6-9 M2e)
Ryuden(10-5 M10e) M5 Nishikigi(7-8 M4w)
Kinbozan(8-7 M7w) M6 Shonannoumi(7-8 M6e)
Asanoyama(4-4 M1e) M7 Ichiyamamoto(11-4 M14w)
Hokuseiho(7-8 M7e) M8 Meisei(4-11 M2w)
Mitakeumi(8-7 M9w) M9 Hiradoumi(9-6 M11w)
Tamawashi(9-6 M12w) M10 Sadanoumi(8-7 M11e)
Tsurugisho(9-6 M13w) M11 Oho(8-7 M12e)
Takanosho(5-6 M6w) M12 Myogiryu(6-9 M9e)
Churanoumi(9-6 M15w) M13 Endo(5-10 M8e)
Onosho(3-12 M5e) M14 Kotoshoho(12-3 J1w)
Tomokaze(7-8 M14e) M15 Onosato(12-3 J5e)
Takarafuji(6-9 M13e) M16 Bushozan(10-5 J2e)
Shimazuumi(9-6 J2w) M17 Aoiyama(8-7 J1e)

 

I actually double checked my confirmation email against what I had on my spreadsheet before posting, and it indeed they were different, so I rearranged them to be what I submitted.  The only change was the Meisei one alluded to earlier. 

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29 minutes ago, Kaito said:

East Rank West Terunofuji Y1   Kirishima O1 Hoshoryu Takakeisho O2  

I think this is identical to mine except for Churanoumi <-> Endo (and Takakeisho on the W side)

Like @Asashosakari said, a lot of very similar guesses. Let's see what they do that none of us expected.

 

Edited by Reonito

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By the looks of player's published results, I don't see a really easy high scoring result as suggested. The guesses seem pretty different. I have some questions as I'm not too good at this, yet I don't get this:

The consensus that Daieishou is ahead of Kotonowaka. Why? Precedence? I was totally sure Kotonowaka's 11-4 JY  (and dad presence..) trumps Daieishou's 9-6 easily. 

And why is everyone so lenient with a 4-11 Asanoyama?  And if Asashosakari is right, which he usually is, I have 31 points. Great.

Edited by Kintamayama
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6 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

By the looks of player's published results, I don't see a really easy high scoring result as suggested. The guesses seem pretty different. I have some questions as I'm not too good at this, yet I don't get this:

Before the basho I was thinking the same but it seems like the strong players who have posted their lists do have pretty similar banzuke. Sumo Spiffy did have a very different banzuke from the ones posted here though and I'm sure a lot of players follow his usually sound advice.

 

7 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

The consensus that Daieishou is ahead of Kotonowaka. Why? Precedence? I was totally sure Kotonowaka's 11-4 JY  (and dad presence..) trumps Daieishou's 9-6 easily.

Kotonowaka was Sekiwake 2East so putting him behind Daieisho is still moving up a rank. If Kotonowaka was Sekiwake 1West then I would have more heavily considered putting him ahead of Daieisho.

 

10 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

And why is everyone so lenient with a 4-11 Asanoyama?  And if Asashosakari is right, which he usually is, I have 31 points. Great.

Shonannoumi and Ichiyamamoto only deserve to be 1 rank higher and half a rank higher respectively so it's not a huge amount of bias for Asanoyama. With stuff like this there is some more guessing involved so I'll also say that it just doesn't feel right to me putting Shonannoumi and Ichiyamamoto ahead of Asanoyama, for how much that's worth.

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25 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think this is identical to mine except for Churanoumi <-> Endo (and Takakeisho on the W side)

Like @Asashosakari said, a lot of very similar guesses. Let's see what they do that none of us expected.

 

I don't actually have Takakeisho on the East. I just copied Seiyashi's formatting and swapped names around. I also pay so little attention to sanyaku in GTB that I don't have a place for it on my spreadsheet.

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19 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I have some questions as I'm not too good at this, yet I don't get this:

The consensus that Daieishou is ahead of Kotonowaka. Why? Precedence? I was totally sure Kotonowaka's 11-4 JY  (and dad presence..) trumps Daieishou's 9-6 easily. 

And why is everyone so lenient with a 4-11 Asanoyama?  And if Asashosakari is right, which he usually is, I have 31 points. Great.

They used to routinely rearrange the sekiwake with winning records based on their win totals, like they still do with yokozuna/ozeki, but for some reason they stopped after 2011 or so unless the difference in records is extreme. The last instance was 2018, when S1w Mitakeumi's 13-2 Y was good enough to swap him with S1e Ichinojo (8-7).

As for Asanoyama, M1's with big losing scores tend to get some leniency, and I think he may get some bonus points for entering at all. When the alternative was over-promoting Ichiyamamoto and under-demoting Shonannoumi, it just seemed neat to slot him in at 6w, which is in line with where 4-win M1's have tended to end up. Not everyone has gone with this though, and who knows if the banzuke committee will.

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8 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I don't actually have Takakeisho on the East. I just copied Seiyashi's formatting and swapped names around. I also pay so little attention to sanyaku in GTB that I don't have a place for it on my spreadsheet.

I figured that was probably just a formatting thing

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32 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I don't actually have Takakeisho on the East. I just copied Seiyashi's formatting and swapped names around. I also pay so little attention to sanyaku in GTB that I don't have a place for it on my spreadsheet.

FWIW I buggered that because I was in a rush, but eh. It's a carelessness point.

Edited by Seiyashi

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This time I couldn't bring myself to think about it more deeply, just arranged the rikishi and moved on. So perhaps I've copied the method of the committee at least.

Terunofuji Y1e
Kirishima O1e
Hoshoryu O1w
Takakeisho O2w
Daieisho S1e
Kotonowaka S1w
Takayasu K1e
Ura K1w
Atamifuji M1e
Wakamotoharu M1w
Abi M2e
Midorifuji M2w
Gonoyama M3e
Shodai M3w
Tobizaru M4e
Hokutofuji M4w
Ryuden M5e
Nishikigi M5w
Kinbozan M6e
Asanoyama M6w
Shonannoumi M7e
Meisei M7w
Hokuseiho M8e
Mitakeumi M8w
Hiradoumi M9e
Ichiyamamoto M9w
Sadanoumi M10e
Tamawashi M10w
Oho M11e
Tsurugisho M11w
Takanosho M12e
Myogiryu M12w
Churanoumi M13e
Endo M13w
Kotoshoho M14e
Onosho M14w
Tomokaze M15e
Takarafuji M15w
Bushozan M16e
Shimazuumi M16w
Onosato M17e
Aoiyama M17w
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I'm a historically poor player, so you should all be feeling pretty good about yourselves:

Yokozuna E: Terunofuji Y1e (0-0-15)
Ozeki E: Kirishima O1w (13-2)
Ozeki W: Hoshoryu O2w (10-5)
Ozeki E2: Takakeisho O1e (9-6)
Sekiwake E: Daieisho S1e (9-6)
Sekiwake W: Kotonowaka S2e (11-4)
Komusubi E: Takayasu M3e (10-5)
Komusubi W: Ura M1w (8-7)
Maegashira E: Atamifuji M8w (11-4)
Maegashira W: Wakamotoharu S1w (6-9)
Maegashira E2: Midorifuji M5w (9-6)
Maegashira W2: Abi K1e (6-9)
Maegashira E3: Gonoyama M4e (8-7)
Maegashira W3: Tobizaru M3w (7-8)
Maegashira E4: Hokutofuji K1w (5-10)
Maegashira W4: Shodai M2e (6-9)
Maegashira E5: Nishikigi M4w (7-8)
Maegashira W5: Ryuden M10e (10-5)
Maegashira E6: Kinbozan M7w (8-7)
Maegashira W6: Shonannoumi M6e (7-8)
Maegashira E7: Ichiyamamoto M14w (11-4)
Maegashira W7: Asanoyama M1e (4-4-7)
Maegashira E8: Hokuseiho M7e (7-8)
Maegashira W8: Mitakeumi M9w (8-7)
Maegashira E9: Hiradoumi M11w (9-6)
Maegashira W9: Meisei M2w (4-11)
Maegashira E10: Tamawashi M12w (9-6)
Maegashira W10: Sadanoumi M11e (8-7)
Maegashira E11: Oho M12e (8-7)
Maegashira W11: Tsurugisho M13w (9-6)
Maegashira E12: Kotoshoho J1w (12-3)
Maegashira W12: Takanosho M6w (5-6-4)
Maegashira E13: Myogiryu M9e (6-9)
Maegashira W13: Churanoumi M15w (9-6)
Maegashira E14: Endo M8e (5-10)
Maegashira W14: Onosato J5e (12-3)
Maegashira E15: Onosho M5e (3-12)
Maegashira W15: Bushozan J2e (10-5)
Maegashira E16: Tomokaze M14e (7-8)
Maegashira W16: Takarafuji M13e (6-9)
Maegashira E17: Shimazuumi J2w (9-6)
Maegashira W17: Aoiyama J1e (8-7)

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Terunofuji Y  
Kirishima O Hoshoryu
  O Takakeisho
Daieisho S Kotonowaka
Takayasu K Ura
     
Atamifuji  M1 Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji M2 Abi
Gonoyama M3 Tobizaru
Shodai M4 Ryuden
Hokutofuji M5 Nishikigi
Kinbozan M6 Shonannoumi
Asanoyama M7 Ichiyamamoto
Hokuseiho M8 Mitakeumi
Hiradoumi M9 Meisei
Tamawashi M10 Sadanoumi
Tsurugisho M11 Oho
Takanosho M12 Myogiryu
Churanoumi M13 Endo
Onosho M14 Kotoshoho
Tomokaze M15 Onosato
Takarafuji M16 Bushozan
Shimazuumi M17 Aoiyama

I couldn't go through with putting Churanoumi behind Endo and Onosho. In retrospect, I should have given more consideration to the possibility of them swapping Chura and Endo only, but at the time I kept thinking they wouldn't bump Endo up without doing the same for Onosho.

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5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Hokutofuji M5

5-10 komusubi tend not to eat their full demotion, especially when this involves over-promoting or under-demoting rank-and-filers ahead of them. 

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25 minutes ago, Reonito said:

5-10 komusubi tend not to eat their full demotion, especially when this involves over-promoting or under-demoting rank-and-filers ahead of them. 

This got mentioned to me, and I did pretty much whiff on this possibility. There are occasional exceptions I miss despite them being pretty likely because the math usually leads to a solid outcome, and when I've strayed from it I've gotten myself in trouble more often than not. I'll probably need to get a little lucky on this one, though.

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Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

Edit: Except maybe Kintamayama.

Edited by Tigerboy1966
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40 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

Edit: Except maybe Kintamayama.

And me of course ... :-(

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1 hour ago, RaeucherLax said:

And me of course ... :-(

… and me. 

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3 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

I gave everyone a 1 point with Takakeishō at O2e. But it's ok, we can give more of a start as the banzuke goes...

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6 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

Edit: Except maybe Kintamayama.

We'll be laughing, you'll  see.

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On 18/12/2023 at 22:22, Sumo Spiffy said:
Terunofuji Y  
Kirishima O Hoshoryu
  O Takakeisho
Daieisho S Kotonowaka
Takayasu K Ura
     
Atamifuji  M1 Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji M2 Abi
Gonoyama M3 Tobizaru
Shodai M4 Ryuden
Hokutofuji M5 Nishikigi
Kinbozan M6 Shonannoumi
Asanoyama M7 Ichiyamamoto
Hokuseiho M8 Mitakeumi
Hiradoumi M9 Meisei
Tamawashi M10 Sadanoumi
Tsurugisho M11 Oho
Takanosho M12 Myogiryu
Churanoumi M13 Endo
Onosho M14 Kotoshoho
Tomokaze M15 Onosato
Takarafuji M16 Bushozan
Shimazuumi M17 Aoiyama

Mine is quite similar with a few differences:

- Ryuden below Hokutofuji and Nishikigi

- Meisei ahead of Mitakeumi and Hiradoumi

- Takarafuji above Onosato

It's going to be very tight indeed (unless NSK manages to surprise all of us, as usual :-D ). 

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