GTB invite- Hatsu 2024 --RESULTS!! 199 entries.

[#1HENKAFAN 40]

My banzuke now comes in a much swaggier dark mode edition  (thank you @Chiyotasuke)

Y1e	Terunofuji	0-0-15	─	Y1
				Y2
O1w	Kirishima	13-2 Y	+0.5	O1	O2w	Hoshoryu	10-5	+1
				O2	O1e	Takakeisho	9-6	-1.5
				O3
S1e	Daieisho	9-6	─	S1	S2e	Kotonowaka	11-4 JK	+0.5
				S2
				S3
M3e	Takayasu	10-5	↑	K1	M1w	Ura	8-7	↑
				K2
				K3
S1w	Wakamotoharu	6-9	↓	M1	M8w	Atamifuji	11-4 JK	+7
K1e	Abi	6-9	↓	M2	M5w	Midorifuji	9-6	+3
M4e	Gonoyama	8-7	+1	M3	K1w	Hokutofuji	5-10	↓
M3w	Tobizaru	7-8	-0.5	M4	M2e	Shodai	6-9	-2.5
M4w	Nishikigi	7-8	-0.5	M5	M10e	Ryuden	10-5	+4.5
M7w	Kinbozan	8-7	+1.5	M6	M1e	Asanoyama	4-4-7	-5.5
M6e	Shonannoumi	7-8	-1	M7	M14w	Ichiyamamoto	11-4 JK	+7
M7e	Hokuseiho	7-8	-1	M8	M11w	Hiradoumi	9-6	+3
M9w	Mitakeumi	8-7	+0.5	M9	M2w	Meisei	4-11	-7
M12w	Tamawashi	9-6	+2.5	M10	M11e	Sadanoumi	8-7	+0.5
M13w	Tsurugisho	9-6	+2.5	M11	M12e	Oho	8-7	+0.5
M6w	Takanosho	5-6-4	-5.5	M12	M9e	Myogiryu	6-9	-3.5
M8e	Endo	5-10	-5	M13	M15w	Churanoumi	9-6	+2
M5e	Onosho	3-12	-9	M14	J1w	Kotoshoho	12-3	↑
M14e	Tomokaze	7-8	-1	M15	M13e	Takarafuji	6-9	-2.5
J5e	Onosato	12-3	↑	M16	J2e	Bushozan	10-5	↑
J2w	Shimazuumi	9-6	↑	M17	J1e	Aoiyama	8-7	↑

Edited December 18, 2023 by #1HENKAFAN

[Seiyashi 4,105]

East	Rank	West
Terunofuji	Y1
Kirishima	O1	Hoshoryu
Takakeisho	O2
Daieisho	S1	Kotonowaka
Ura	K1	Takayasu
Atamifuji	M1	Gonoyama
Midorifuji	M2	Wakamotoharu
Abi	M3	Hokutofuji
Tobizaru	M4	Nishikigi
Shodai	M5	Ryuden
Kinbozan	M6	Ichiyamamoto
Shonannoumi	M7	Asanoyama
Hokuseiho	M8	Mitakeumi
Hiradoumi	M9	Tamawashi
Sadanoumi	M10	Tsurugisho
Oho	M11	Meisei
Myogiryu	M12	Takanosho
Churanoumi	M13	Endo
Onosho	M14	Kotoshoho
Tomokaze	M15	Bushozan
Takarafuji	M16	Shimazuumi
Onosato	M17	Aoiyama

I count that as 40 points if Asashosakari's guess is the actual banzuke.

[Shatsume 118]

Putting Ichiyamamoto above Shonannoumi is the only decision i'm currently feeling twitchy about.

[Kaito 296]

East	Rank	West
Terunofuji	Y1
Kirishima	O1	Hoshoryu
	O2	Takakeisho
Daieisho	S1	Kotonowaka
Takayasu	K1	Ura
Atamifuji	M1	Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji	M2	Abi
Gonoyama	M3	Hokutofuji
Tobizaru	M4	Shodai
Ryuden	M5	Nishikigi
Kinbozan	M6	Asanoyama
Shonannoumi	M7	Ichiyamamoto
Hokuseiho	M8	Hiradoumi
Mitakeumi	M9	Meisei
Tamawashi	M10	Sadanoumi
Tsurugisho	M11	Oho
Takanosho	M12	Myogiryu
Churanoumi	M13	Endo
Onosho	M14	Kotoshoho
Tomokaze	M15	Onosato
Takarafuji	M16	Bushozan
Shimazuumi	M17	Aoiyama

 

First draft had Abi ahead of Midorifuji. I kind of let myself be talked into changing it. It may make more sense, but the committee has shown nothing but disrespect for Midorifuji so far and this is another free opportunity to hate on him. Seeing people put Wakamotoharu ahead of Atamifuji now, I think that makes sense too as something the committee would prefer to do, and is in line with underdemoting Abi and Hokutofuji.

Only other changes from first draft:

Moved Ryuden from M4e to M5e, behind Tobizaru and Shodai. I never considered Nishikigi a part of that tier. 

Swapped Ichiyamamoto and Asanoyama.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kaito
Fixed Takakeisho's placement.

[Gurowake 4,088]

Terunofuji(0-0 Ye)	Y
Kirishima(13-2 Ow)	O	Hoshoryu(10-5 Ow)
	O	Takakeisho(9-6 Oe)
Daieisho(9-6 Se)	S	Kotonowaka(11-4 Se)
Takayasu(10-5 M3e)	K	Ura(8-7 M1w)
Wakamotoharu(6-9 Sw)	M1	Atamifuji(11-4 M8w)
Abi(6-9 Ke)	M2	Midorifuji(9-6 M5w)
Gonoyama(8-7 M4e)	M3	Hokutofuji(5-10 Kw)
Tobizaru(7-8 M3w)	M4	Shodai(6-9 M2e)
Ryuden(10-5 M10e)	M5	Nishikigi(7-8 M4w)
Kinbozan(8-7 M7w)	M6	Shonannoumi(7-8 M6e)
Asanoyama(4-4 M1e)	M7	Ichiyamamoto(11-4 M14w)
Hokuseiho(7-8 M7e)	M8	Meisei(4-11 M2w)
Mitakeumi(8-7 M9w)	M9	Hiradoumi(9-6 M11w)
Tamawashi(9-6 M12w)	M10	Sadanoumi(8-7 M11e)
Tsurugisho(9-6 M13w)	M11	Oho(8-7 M12e)
Takanosho(5-6 M6w)	M12	Myogiryu(6-9 M9e)
Churanoumi(9-6 M15w)	M13	Endo(5-10 M8e)
Onosho(3-12 M5e)	M14	Kotoshoho(12-3 J1w)
Tomokaze(7-8 M14e)	M15	Onosato(12-3 J5e)
Takarafuji(6-9 M13e)	M16	Bushozan(10-5 J2e)
Shimazuumi(9-6 J2w)	M17	Aoiyama(8-7 J1e)

 

I actually double checked my confirmation email against what I had on my spreadsheet before posting, and it indeed they were different, so I rearranged them to be what I submitted.  The only change was the Meisei one alluded to earlier. 

[Reonito 1,482]

29 minutes ago, Kaito said:

East Rank West Terunofuji Y1   Kirishima O1 Hoshoryu Takakeisho O2  

I think this is identical to mine except for Churanoumi <-> Endo (and Takakeisho on the W side)

Like @Asashosakari said, a lot of very similar guesses. Let's see what they do that none of us expected.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Reonito

[Kintamayama 45,374]

By the looks of player's published results, I don't see a really easy high scoring result as suggested. The guesses seem pretty different. I have some questions as I'm not too good at this, yet I don't get this:

The consensus that Daieishou is ahead of Kotonowaka. Why? Precedence? I was totally sure Kotonowaka's 11-4 JY  (and dad presence..) trumps Daieishou's 9-6 easily. 

And why is everyone so lenient with a 4-11 Asanoyama?  And if Asashosakari is right, which he usually is, I have 31 points. Great.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kintamayama

[#1HENKAFAN 40]

6 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

By the looks of player's published results, I don't see a really easy high scoring result as suggested. The guesses seem pretty different. I have some questions as I'm not too good at this, yet I don't get this:

Before the basho I was thinking the same but it seems like the strong players who have posted their lists do have pretty similar banzuke. Sumo Spiffy did have a very different banzuke from the ones posted here though and I'm sure a lot of players follow his usually sound advice.

 

7 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

The consensus that Daieishou is ahead of Kotonowaka. Why? Precedence? I was totally sure Kotonowaka's 11-4 JY  (and dad presence..) trumps Daieishou's 9-6 easily.

Kotonowaka was Sekiwake 2East so putting him behind Daieisho is still moving up a rank. If Kotonowaka was Sekiwake 1West then I would have more heavily considered putting him ahead of Daieisho.

 

10 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

And why is everyone so lenient with a 4-11 Asanoyama?  And if Asashosakari is right, which he usually is, I have 31 points. Great.

Shonannoumi and Ichiyamamoto only deserve to be 1 rank higher and half a rank higher respectively so it's not a huge amount of bias for Asanoyama. With stuff like this there is some more guessing involved so I'll also say that it just doesn't feel right to me putting Shonannoumi and Ichiyamamoto ahead of Asanoyama, for how much that's worth.

[Kaito 296]

25 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think this is identical to mine except for Churanoumi <-> Endo (and Takakeisho on the W side)

Like @Asashosakari said, a lot of very similar guesses. Let's see what they do that none of us expected.

 

I don't actually have Takakeisho on the East. I just copied Seiyashi's formatting and swapped names around. I also pay so little attention to sanyaku in GTB that I don't have a place for it on my spreadsheet.

[Reonito 1,482]

19 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I have some questions as I'm not too good at this, yet I don't get this:

The consensus that Daieishou is ahead of Kotonowaka. Why? Precedence? I was totally sure Kotonowaka's 11-4 JY  (and dad presence..) trumps Daieishou's 9-6 easily. 

And why is everyone so lenient with a 4-11 Asanoyama?  And if Asashosakari is right, which he usually is, I have 31 points. Great.

They used to routinely rearrange the sekiwake with winning records based on their win totals, like they still do with yokozuna/ozeki, but for some reason they stopped after 2011 or so unless the difference in records is extreme. The last instance was 2018, when S1w Mitakeumi's 13-2 Y was good enough to swap him with S1e Ichinojo (8-7).

As for Asanoyama, M1's with big losing scores tend to get some leniency, and I think he may get some bonus points for entering at all. When the alternative was over-promoting Ichiyamamoto and under-demoting Shonannoumi, it just seemed neat to slot him in at 6w, which is in line with where 4-win M1's have tended to end up. Not everyone has gone with this though, and who knows if the banzuke committee will.

[Reonito 1,482]

8 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I don't actually have Takakeisho on the East. I just copied Seiyashi's formatting and swapped names around. I also pay so little attention to sanyaku in GTB that I don't have a place for it on my spreadsheet.

I figured that was probably just a formatting thing

[Seiyashi 4,105]

32 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I don't actually have Takakeisho on the East. I just copied Seiyashi's formatting and swapped names around. I also pay so little attention to sanyaku in GTB that I don't have a place for it on my spreadsheet.

FWIW I buggered that because I was in a rush, but eh. It's a carelessness point.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Yarimotsu 588]

This time I couldn't bring myself to think about it more deeply, just arranged the rikishi and moved on. So perhaps I've copied the method of the committee at least.

Terunofuji	Y1e
Kirishima	O1e
Hoshoryu	O1w
Takakeisho	O2w
Daieisho	S1e
Kotonowaka	S1w
Takayasu	K1e
Ura	K1w
Atamifuji	M1e
Wakamotoharu	M1w
Abi	M2e
Midorifuji	M2w
Gonoyama	M3e
Shodai	M3w
Tobizaru	M4e
Hokutofuji	M4w
Ryuden	M5e
Nishikigi	M5w
Kinbozan	M6e
Asanoyama	M6w
Shonannoumi	M7e
Meisei	M7w
Hokuseiho	M8e
Mitakeumi	M8w
Hiradoumi	M9e
Ichiyamamoto	M9w
Sadanoumi	M10e
Tamawashi	M10w
Oho	M11e
Tsurugisho	M11w
Takanosho	M12e
Myogiryu	M12w
Churanoumi	M13e
Endo	M13w
Kotoshoho	M14e
Onosho	M14w
Tomokaze	M15e
Takarafuji	M15w
Bushozan	M16e
Shimazuumi	M16w
Onosato	M17e
Aoiyama	M17w

[Godango 1,001]

I'm a historically poor player, so you should all be feeling pretty good about yourselves:

Yokozuna E: Terunofuji Y1e (0-0-15)
Ozeki E: Kirishima O1w (13-2)
Ozeki W: Hoshoryu O2w (10-5)
Ozeki E2: Takakeisho O1e (9-6)
Sekiwake E: Daieisho S1e (9-6)
Sekiwake W: Kotonowaka S2e (11-4)
Komusubi E: Takayasu M3e (10-5)
Komusubi W: Ura M1w (8-7)
Maegashira E: Atamifuji M8w (11-4)
Maegashira W: Wakamotoharu S1w (6-9)
Maegashira E2: Midorifuji M5w (9-6)
Maegashira W2: Abi K1e (6-9)
Maegashira E3: Gonoyama M4e (8-7)
Maegashira W3: Tobizaru M3w (7-8)
Maegashira E4: Hokutofuji K1w (5-10)
Maegashira W4: Shodai M2e (6-9)
Maegashira E5: Nishikigi M4w (7-8)
Maegashira W5: Ryuden M10e (10-5)
Maegashira E6: Kinbozan M7w (8-7)
Maegashira W6: Shonannoumi M6e (7-8)
Maegashira E7: Ichiyamamoto M14w (11-4)
Maegashira W7: Asanoyama M1e (4-4-7)
Maegashira E8: Hokuseiho M7e (7-8)
Maegashira W8: Mitakeumi M9w (8-7)
Maegashira E9: Hiradoumi M11w (9-6)
Maegashira W9: Meisei M2w (4-11)
Maegashira E10: Tamawashi M12w (9-6)
Maegashira W10: Sadanoumi M11e (8-7)
Maegashira E11: Oho M12e (8-7)
Maegashira W11: Tsurugisho M13w (9-6)
Maegashira E12: Kotoshoho J1w (12-3)
Maegashira W12: Takanosho M6w (5-6-4)
Maegashira E13: Myogiryu M9e (6-9)
Maegashira W13: Churanoumi M15w (9-6)
Maegashira E14: Endo M8e (5-10)
Maegashira W14: Onosato J5e (12-3)
Maegashira E15: Onosho M5e (3-12)
Maegashira W15: Bushozan J2e (10-5)
Maegashira E16: Tomokaze M14e (7-8)
Maegashira W16: Takarafuji M13e (6-9)
Maegashira E17: Shimazuumi J2w (9-6)
Maegashira W17: Aoiyama J1e (8-7)

[Sumo Spiffy 572]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Atamifuji	M1	Gonoyama

Yo, you gotta explain this one.

[Sumo Spiffy 572]

Terunofuji	Y
Kirishima	O	Hoshoryu
	O	Takakeisho
Daieisho	S	Kotonowaka
Takayasu	K	Ura
Atamifuji	M1	Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji	M2	Abi
Gonoyama	M3	Tobizaru
Shodai	M4	Ryuden
Hokutofuji	M5	Nishikigi
Kinbozan	M6	Shonannoumi
Asanoyama	M7	Ichiyamamoto
Hokuseiho	M8	Mitakeumi
Hiradoumi	M9	Meisei
Tamawashi	M10	Sadanoumi
Tsurugisho	M11	Oho
Takanosho	M12	Myogiryu
Churanoumi	M13	Endo
Onosho	M14	Kotoshoho
Tomokaze	M15	Onosato
Takarafuji	M16	Bushozan
Shimazuumi	M17	Aoiyama

I couldn't go through with putting Churanoumi behind Endo and Onosho. In retrospect, I should have given more consideration to the possibility of them swapping Chura and Endo only, but at the time I kept thinking they wouldn't bump Endo up without doing the same for Onosho.

[Reonito 1,482]

5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Hokutofuji M5

5-10 komusubi tend not to eat their full demotion, especially when this involves over-promoting or under-demoting rank-and-filers ahead of them. 

[Sumo Spiffy 572]

25 minutes ago, Reonito said:

5-10 komusubi tend not to eat their full demotion, especially when this involves over-promoting or under-demoting rank-and-filers ahead of them. 

This got mentioned to me, and I did pretty much whiff on this possibility. There are occasional exceptions I miss despite them being pretty likely because the math usually leads to a solid outcome, and when I've strayed from it I've gotten myself in trouble more often than not. I'll probably need to get a little lucky on this one, though.

[Tigerboy1966 1,451]

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

Edit: Except maybe Kintamayama.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Tigerboy1966

[RaeucherLax 289]

40 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

Edit: Except maybe Kintamayama.

And me of course ... 

[Wamahada 57]

1 hour ago, RaeucherLax said:

And me of course ... 

… and me. 

[Seiyashi 4,105]

3 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

I gave everyone a 1 point with Takakeishō at O2e. But it's ok, we can give more of a start as the banzuke goes...

[Kintamayama 45,374]

6 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well it looks like I have given all of you a 2 point start by putting Kotonowaka at S1e.

Edit: Except maybe Kintamayama.

We'll be laughing, you'll  see.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,275]

6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

We'll be laughing, you'll  see.

Sure thing, Zambara

[Bunbukuchagama 742]

On 18/12/2023 at 22:22, Sumo Spiffy said:

Terunofuji	Y
Kirishima	O	Hoshoryu
	O	Takakeisho
Daieisho	S	Kotonowaka
Takayasu	K	Ura
Atamifuji	M1	Wakamotoharu
Midorifuji	M2	Abi
Gonoyama	M3	Tobizaru
Shodai	M4	Ryuden
Hokutofuji	M5	Nishikigi
Kinbozan	M6	Shonannoumi
Asanoyama	M7	Ichiyamamoto
Hokuseiho	M8	Mitakeumi
Hiradoumi	M9	Meisei
Tamawashi	M10	Sadanoumi
Tsurugisho	M11	Oho
Takanosho	M12	Myogiryu
Churanoumi	M13	Endo
Onosho	M14	Kotoshoho
Tomokaze	M15	Onosato
Takarafuji	M16	Bushozan
Shimazuumi	M17	Aoiyama

Mine is quite similar with a few differences:

- Ryuden below Hokutofuji and Nishikigi

- Meisei ahead of Mitakeumi and Hiradoumi

- Takarafuji above Onosato

It's going to be very tight indeed (unless NSK manages to surprise all of us, as usual  ).