Seiyashi

Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2023

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I thought about presenting a top of Makushita guess, but mine lately have been wildly off, and while I did make a first pass, I was thrown off by a few things and got some things muddled and I really don't feel like trying to recreate it since it's unlikely to be of much accuracy anyway.

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Oh joy, it only just occurred to me that we're going to have another "will they do that stupid thing with the two sekiwake scores again" GTB.

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16 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Oh joy, it only just occurred to me that we're going to have another "will they do that stupid thing with the two sekiwake scores again" GTB.

I thought that it was fairly well-determined in a case like this, they can't "demote" Daieisho.  If Daieisho had been S1w instead, then Kotonowaka could jump over him.  Of course, they could make up a new rule, so who knows?  I may also be misremembering things, as I just don't have much patience to do research into stuff like this anymore.

Edited by Gurowake

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I thought about presenting a top of Makushita guess, but mine lately have been wildly off, and while I did make a first pass, I was thrown off by a few things and got some things muddled and I really don't feel like trying to recreate it since it's unlikely to be of much accuracy anyway.

Here's at least where, if my old database of movements were accurate still, each of the rikishi near the top of Makushita "should" land.

Ms1w - Kayo, Tsushimanada

Ms2e - Wakatakakage, Kitaharima

Ms3w - Takakento

Ms4e - Satorufuji

Ms4w - Chiyonoumi, Hakuoho(??? - This is surely wrong based on where Wakatakakage ended up last time, but this is where my system puts him.  The system is clearly wrong, but I don't have the desire to investigate how the system should change, so I'm stuck being wrong.)

Ms5e - Kiryuko

Ms6e - Yago, Hitoshi

So that (likely less Hakuoho) is my guess for what the main promotion zone will look like.  The next rikishi on my list are Hatsuyama(6w) then Kitadaichi and Hokutomaru (7e), but they could easily get ranked in the promotion zone instead because my system is based on old numbers and things have clearly changed. 

Edited by Gurowake

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11 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

So, as I understand it, after today's results the candidates for the last 2 spots in juryo are Tenshoho, Chiyosakae and Tsushimanada.

Who will miss out?

It'll be Tsushimanada, won't it, "exchange bout" notwithstanding? 4-3 at Ms4w is not a strong case, and this way they don't have to decide which of the borderline demotion guys to push down.

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4 hours ago, Ripe said:

My guess is there will be only four demotions/promotions: 0-0-15 J6w Hakuoho, 3-12 J9w Takatento, 2-13 J11e Hitoshi and 0-2-13 J14w Azumaryu for 4-3 Ms1e Hakuyozan, 6-1 Ms1w Takerufuji, 4-3 Ms2w Oshoumi and 4-3 Ms3e Tochimusashi.

This strikes me as exactly on target.

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3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

they don't have to decide which of the borderline demotion guys to push down. 

Isn't it clearly Tenshoho if they are making the exchange?

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I just realized* that this system they have for deciding in the next two months who gets a nice salary and who's left without a salary seems rather arbitrary, where they can and will make decisions that cost rikishi a good amount of money solely based on their own opinions, rather than any hard-and-fast set of rules, at least as far as we can tell.  When it comes to promotions and relegations in most professional sports, people's opinions of the team/player strengths I don't think have anything to do with it.  There's a very specific rule for how it works in each of those other sports, and there's no guessing as to what's going to happen, at least from what I've seen.

*well, that might be a stretch, but I never really thought about it in terms like this before; that there are actual people whose livelihoods are at stake on the basis of some old men's whims.

Edited by Gurowake
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13 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Isn't it clearly Tenshoho if they are making the exchange?

Eh, it's half a rank, Tenshoho won his exchange bout and Chiyosakae lost his, and it might look odd to send down a J10 and keep a make-koshi J14—but I think it'll be academic and they'll keep both. We'll know soon enough.

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18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I just realized* that this system they have for deciding in the next two months who gets a nice salary and who's left without a salary seems rather arbitrary, where they can and will make decisions that cost rikishi a good amount of money solely based on their own opinions, rather than any hard-and-fast set of rules, at least as far as we can tell.  When it comes to promotions and relegations in most professional sports, people's opinions of the team/player strengths I don't think have anything to do with it.  There's a very specific rule for how it works in each of those other sports, and there's no guessing as to what's going to happen, at least from what I've seen.

Individual athletes aren't collectively employed in other such sports, though. The better comparison to sumo would be some team sport club/franchise where the front office decides which of their contracted minor league players deserves to be called up to the first team. That's no less subjective.

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It's not as if the system is completely arbitrary. When you see  an odd ranking decision you can almost always work out the criteria that have been taken into consideration, even when they aren't the ones that you or I would have applied.

So it looks like it's Tsushimanada who will be starting January against Kayo, with Wakatakakage waiting for the winner. Happy New Year!

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I thought that it was fairly well-determined in a case like this, they can't "demote" Daieisho.  If Daieisho had been S1w instead, then Kotonowaka could jump over him.  Of course, they could make up a new rule, so who knows?  I may also be misremembering things, as I just don't have much patience to do research into stuff like this anymore.

They used to flip sekiwake based on record pretty easily, but they stopped that in... the last ten years or so? Maybe a little longer? I looked it up before and it was pretty clear when they did it and when they stopped. There was at least one more recent instance I can recall where they did flip them...

...checking...

Yeah, there was a five-win gap between Ichinojo and Mitakeumi when Mitakeumi won his first yusho in 2018. But I would bet good money Daieisho stays at S1E not only because they've largely stopped flipping sekiwake, but also because Kotonowaka is still getting a promotion ("promotion") by moving to S1W.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy
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Based on a quick first draft, the logjam this time seems to be in the lower half of the maegashira ranks...

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On 25/11/2023 at 12:14, Seiyashi said:

Midorifuji has the arguably easiest opponent of the lot in Churanoumi, the only shinnyūmaku to score his KK.

Yeah, that's what I thought too. (Shakinghead...)

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Eh, it's half a rank, Tenshoho won his exchange bout and Chiyosakae lost his, and it might look odd to send down a J10 and keep a make-koshi J14—but I think it'll be academic and they'll keep both. We'll know soon enough.

I'm of the opinion that exchange bouts matter far less than the numerics of the situation. 

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Ms4w - Chiyonoumi, Hakuoho(??? - This is surely wrong based on where Wakatakakage ended up last time, but this is where my system puts him.  The system is clearly wrong, but I don't have the desire to investigate how the system should change, so I'm stuck being wrong.)

After I thought Wakatakakage would be slotted in way higher than they ended up doing, I'm inclined to expect Hakuoho at the same Ms6e. With WTK it looked to me like a crappy "let's not make it too easy for him" thing at first, but with some emotional distance I now wonder if they did it exactly because they're putting such a premium on being ranked in the top 5 if a rikishi wants to be promoted. If, as the committee, you're not sure at all that the injured guy you're about to send out of juryo will actually stage his return in the next basho, maybe you're thinking "we should give these valuable 10 spots to rikishi who can actually make use of them"?

And so, considering Hakuoho's return for January appears to be even more iffy than WTK's was for this month...

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4 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

After I thought Wakatakakage would be slotted in way higher than they ended up doing, I'm inclined to expect Hakuoho at the same Ms6e. With WTK it looked to me like a crappy "let's not make it too easy for him" thing at first, but with some emotional distance I now wonder if they did it exactly because they're putting such a premium on being ranked in the top 5 if a rikishi wants to be promoted. If, as the committee, you're not sure at all that the injured guy you're about to send out of juryo will actually stage his return in the next basho, maybe you're thinking "we should give these valuable 10 spots to rikishi who can actually make use of them"?

And so, considering Hakuoho's return for January appears to be even more iffy than WTK's was for this month...

WTK went from J7e to Ms6e. Hakuoho is J6w, so M5w would be consistent, and what they've done with the most recent winless J6's.

I guess the question is whether there are 10 people to put ahead of him. Assuming 4 exchanges, only Takakento needs a spot among the other juryo demotees, and Tsushimanada is the only KK in the top 10 who needs a spot there again. That's two (same math if Tsushimanada goes up). Kitadaichi could stay or go, so he'd be one of the options to weigh against Hakuoho.

We have Satorufuji. We have two 6-win guys who'll be in the top 10: Kayo and Kitaharima. Hokutomaru is ranked too low I think. That's 5 spots spoken for. WTK is the only 5-win guy ranked high enough. That's 6. And I see only 3 guys with 4-3 records:  Ms7e Chiyonoumi, Ms8e Kiryuko, and Ms9e Yago.

So if I counted right, it comes down to Hakuoho vs. Kitadaichi for the final spot. Thoughts?

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Reonito said:

So if I counted right, it comes down to Hakuoho vs. Kitadaichi for the final spot. Thoughts?

A quickly composed rough attempt:

Kayo (Ms6w 6-1)         Ms1  Wakatakakage (Ms6e 5-2)
Tsushimanada (Ms4w 4-3) Ms2  Takakento (J9w 3-12)
Kitaharima (Ms11e 6-1)  Ms3  Satorufuji (Ms42w 7-0 Y)
Chiyonoumi (Ms7e 4-3)   Ms4  Kiryuko (Ms8e 4-3)
Yago (Ms9e 4-3)         Ms5  Hatsuyama (Ms13w 5-2)
Hakuoho (J6w 0-0-15)    Ms6  Hitoshi (J11e 2-13)

4 ranks as the 4-3/5-2 equivalent difference seems on par for that area of the banzuke, so Hatsuyama next to Yago wouldn't be out of place (and they pushed Otsuji up all the way from Ms17e last time anyway). Kitadaichi at Ms5w would work, too, but I think the above shows that that's not even strictly necessary to get Hakuoho beyond the top 5.

Edited by Asashosakari
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8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

A quickly composed rough attempt:

Kayo (Ms6w 6-1)         Ms1  Wakatakakage (Ms6e 5-2)
Tsushimanada (Ms4w 4-3) Ms2  Takakento (J9w 3-12)
Kitaharima (Ms11e 6-1)  Ms3  Satorufuji (Ms42w 7-0 Y)
Chiyonoumi (Ms7e 4-3)   Ms4  Kiryuko (Ms8e 4-3)
Yago (Ms9e 4-3)         Ms5  Hatsuyama (Ms13w 5-2)
Hakuoho (J6w 0-0-15)    Ms6  Hitoshi (J11e 2-13)

4 ranks as the 4-3/5-2 equivalent difference seems on par for that area of the banzuke, so Hatsuyama next to Yago isn't out of place (and they pushed Otsuji up all the way from Ms17e last time anyway). Kitadaichi at Ms5w would work, too, but I think the above shows that that's not even strictly necessary to get Hakuoho beyond the top 5.

Ah, I'd looked at 5-2's ranked Ms13-Ms16 so missed Otsuji. That was the first time in quite a few instances someone ranked below Ms12 got into the promotion zone with a 5-2, so I guess it comes down to Hakuoho/Hatsuyama/Kitadaichi, and they have plenty of discretion to pick whomever they want from the trio. Anyway, it's going to be a spicy promotion battle!

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12 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Ah, I'd looked at 5-2's ranked Ms13-Ms16 so missed Otsuji. That was the first time in quite a few instances someone ranked below Ms12 got into the promotion zone with a 5-2, so I guess it comes down to Hakuoho/Hatsuyama/Kitadaichi, and they have plenty of discretion to pick whomever they want from the trio. Anyway, it's going to be a spicy promotion battle!

I could honestly also see Hitoshi given a bigger parachute than I did there, so that's another potential candidate for the last spot. Putting him before Hakuoho would go against the numbers, but I don't think they would consider it indefensible (see Fujiseiun vs Chiyonoumi recently).

Actually, now that I'm looking at that I'm left to wonder if Fujiseiun's non-appearance at Ms5e might have played a role in Wakatakakage not getting a top 5 position two months later.

Edited by Asashosakari
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On 26/11/2023 at 20:40, Asashosakari said:

Actually, now that I'm looking at that I'm left to wonder if Fujiseiun's non-appearance at Ms5e might have played a role in Wakatakakage not getting a top 5 position two months later.

I'll be genuinely interested to see how they treat Hakuoho, given that the expectation is that he's coming back.

I apologise to whomever would end up ms6e in this scenario, but my fingers are crossed they don't pull the rug from under him. The sekitori ranks can only be better with his presence.

Edited by Koorifuu

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25 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

I'll be genuinely interested to see how they treat Hakuoho, given that the expectation is that he's coming back.

A bit off topic, but is there news about Hakuoho? Is he planning to participate next basho? 

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Since there's speculation about it in the juryo promotion thread and my own guess that I drafted on Sunday actually does what's considered unlikely there :-P here's what it presumably would have to look like if they try to retain some semblance of by-the-numbersness in lower juryo:

Daiamami (J4e 9-6)      J1   Mitoryu (J4w 9-6)
Nishikifuji (M16w 6-9)  J2   Tohakuryu (M15e 5-10)
Roga (M16e 5-10)        J3   Kotoeko (M10w 2-8-5)
Kitanowaka (M17e 5-10)  J4   Tamashoho (J7w 9-6)
Chiyoshoma (J6e 8-7)    J5   Oshoma (J3w 6-9)
Kagayaki (J3e 5-10)     J6   Tokihayate (J8w 8-7)
Takahashi (J9e 8-7)     J7   Shishi (J5w 6-9)
Shimanoumi (J12e 9-6)   J8   Shiden (J12w 9-6)
Asakoryu (J13w 9-6)     J9   Takerufuji (Ms1w 6-1)
Daishoho (J7e 5-10)     J10  Hakuyozan (Ms1e 4-3)
Oshoumi (Ms2w 4-3)      J11  Tochimusashi (Ms3e 4-3)
Hidenoumi (J11w 6-7-2)  J12  Chiyomaru (J8e 4-7-4)
Yuma (J13e 7-8)         J13  Akua (J10e 5-10)
Chiyosakae (J14e 7-8)   J14  Tenshoho (J10w 5-10)

That aside: Not many differences to Gurowake's draft. Kotoeko/Roga flipped, Kagayaki two spots higher, and Takerufuji in front of Daishoho rather than behind.

That J2e-J4e block sticks out to me. If that actually comes to pass, I wonder how often all demotees from the maegashira ranks have ended up in one block when there are that many of them.

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

That J2e-J4e block sticks out to me. If that actually comes to pass, I wonder how often all demotees from the maegashira ranks have ended up in one block when there are that many of them.

How surprised would you be if one or two of them ended up at J1?

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Since there's speculation about it in the juryo promotion thread and my own guess that I drafted on Sunday actually does what's considered unlikely there :-P here's what it presumably would have to look like if they try to retain some semblance of by-the-numbersness in lower juryo: [...]

Allow me to reiterate that I sure hope that's the case. :-D Anyhow, interesting to see you're on "my" side when it comes to Kagayaki vs Tokihayate & Takahashi.

And mea culpa for taking the silence after Gurowake's draft as a sign of acknowledgement.

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