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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2023

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4 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Yeah, I'm not fully convinced they'd actually exchange Daiamami 9-6 with Tohakuryu 6-9, but as the premise was that Tohakuryu has "done enough" to get sent packing at 9 losses, then that implies they'd push Mitoryu to take his spot even at 9-6, and Daiamami can be better-placed than that.

Indeed, having a demotable record does not imply automatic demotion., e.g. Aki 2022 There has to be either someone with a promotable record or the demotable record has to be unsalvegably bad. A 6-9 record for Tohakuryu would not be unsalvageably bad.

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5 minutes ago, Sakura said:

A 6-9 record for Tohakuryu would not be unsalvageably bad.

Indeed, the last four 6-9 M15e's have survived.  OTOH, 5-10's have all gone down to Juryo since they shrunk Makuuchi to 42 rikishi.

[Hanging on at M19e wasn't so bad in 1958, because you were still lording it over those losers at M22.]

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If Tohak can save himself, surely Onosato isn't a locked promotion? 8-7 J1e Aoiyama, 11 or 12 win J1w Kotoshoho, and 10 win Shimazuumi + Bushozan at the J2 ranks would be ahead of 11-4 J5e Onosato, no?

Edited by Katooshu

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4 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

If Tohak can save himself and limit demotions to 4, why are we talking about Onosato as a locked promotion? Surely 8-7 J1e Aoiyama, 11+ win J1w Kotoshoho, and 10 win Shimazuumi + Bushozan at the J2 ranks would be ahead of 11-4 J5e Onosato?

A 6-9 Tohakuryu, I expect, would still go down in favour of anyone with a promotale record. There are 5 rikishi with demotable records and his is least bad currently, and only 4 rikishi with promotable records currently. A win by Aoiyama or MItoryu ought to send him down regardless, even if he gets a 6th win, but if Aoiyama and Mitoryu both lose then he could conceivably be safe with 6 wins.

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38 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

If Tohak can save himself, surely Onosato isn't a locked promotion? 8-7 J1e Aoiyama, 11 or 12 win J1w Kotoshoho, and 10 win Shimazuumi + Bushozan at the J2 ranks would be ahead of 11-4 J5e Onosato, no?

Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan and Shima are all already undeniable, and Aoiyama would also be with a win. We know for sure Kotoeko, Roga, and Kitanowaka are toast. The 4th promotion comes at the expense of either Nishikifuji (as things stand now) or Tohakuryu (if he loses and Nishikifuji wins). If Aoiyama wins, they're both toast. Likewise if Aoiyama loses and Mitoryu wins (if both win, Mitoryu will be a rather unlucky miss). The only chance for one of them to stay is if Aoiyama and Mitoryu both lose, in which case the worst-placed of the pair would be in a tossup against either Mitoryu or Daiamami, depending on Daiamami's result.

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For completeness, here's my take on juryo <-> makushita:

Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu are toast. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, Oshoumi and Tochimusashi are coming up. There will be between 4 and 6 demotions, depending on how Chiyosakae, Takakento and Tenshoho do tomorrow. Chiyosakae has a random bout against Daishoho, while Takakento and Tenshoho fight promotion-seeking Kitadaichi and and Tsushimanada.

  • Takakento and Tenshoho win: they stay, and Chiyosakae, regardless of his result, gets exchanged with Tochimusashi.
  • All three incumbents lose: we have six exchanges.
  • One of Takakento and Tenshoho wins, Chiyosakae loses: we have five exchanges.
  • One of Takakento and Tenshoho wins, Chiyosakae wins: Chiyosakae may or may not get exchanged with Kitadaichi/Tshushimanada.
  • Takakento and Tenshoho lose, Chiyosakae wins: Chiyosakae may or may not get exchanged with Tshushimanada.

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Regarding the Juryo-Makushita changes. Other than the three swaps, the most logical thing would be that it'll all be settled with exchange bouts: Chiyosakae - Tochimusashi today, then Tsushimanada - Takakento and Kitadaichi - Tenshoho tomorrow. Chiyosakae goes down regardless of tomorrow's results, Akua and Chiyomaru stay up regardless.

Unless they're just machiavellan and decide to kick Takakento down even if he wins, in favour of keeping Chiyosakae. No confidence that Kayo is in the equation, though.

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18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

 

  • Takakento and Tenshoho win: they stay, and Chiyosakae, regardless of his result, gets exchanged with Tochimusashi.

Could a 7-8 Chiyosakae be less demotable than a 4-11 Takakento? Chiyosakae would have a better rank-record combination. We've also seen J14 7-8's stay and 4-3's from Ms3 not get promoted (here - though I think Bushozan got lucky because of all the 7-8's at the bottom of Juryo that had rank freezing).

 

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4 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Unless they're just machiavellan and decide to kick Takakento down even if he wins, in favour of keeping Chiyosakae.

This would be my expectation if all three juryo guys win, actually. They're very wedded to doing things by the numbers these days, and I don't have the impression that the results of the J vs Ms matches affect that much. That's more a thing on the makushita side.

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3 hours ago, Reonito said:

Why on earth would they do that? It hasn't happened in 73 opportunities in the 6-basho era. I obviously haven't checked all the instances to see if there was a vacant komusubi slot, and who ended up taking it, but Takayasu's already has done enough by the numbers, and Midori and Atami are both kachi-koshi and only one win off, which isn't the sort of "lack of plausible candidates" scenario that would make them even consider doing something unconventional (and it'd be a 7-8 Abi even then, which is something they've done on occasion).

To be clear, I wasn't contemplating this as a realistic outcome. It was more thinking out loud about what situation would make it even theoretically possible. But you're right, there's really no way for the candidates to be considered so far off that this could happen.

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13 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Could a 7-8 Chiyosakae be less demotable than a 4-11 Takakento? Chiyosakae would have a better rank-record combination. We've also seen J14 7-8's stay and 4-3's from Ms3 not get promoted (here - though I think Bushozan got lucky because of all the 7-8's at the bottom of Juryo that had rank freezing).

 

Same thing happened a year later in Haru 2022 where 7-8 J14e Takatento got to stay and 4-3 Ms3e Nishikawa (Gonoyama) wasn't promoted... and in that case a 5-10 J10w Churanoumi was also not demoted so a 4-11 J9w Takatento might also get to stay.

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13 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

To be clear, I wasn't contemplating this as a realistic outcome. It was more thinking out loud about what situation would make it even theoretically possible. But you're right, there's really no way for the candidates to be considered so far off that this could happen.

My guess is that they'd probably go down as far as they needed to for a kachi-koshi maegashira instead of putting a 6-9 sekiwake at komusubi. They've gone as far down as an 8-7 M6 or 9-6 M8...

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Takakento at 4-11 would be more demotable than a 7-8 Chiyosakae in my opinion. Especially they are only moving 4 makushita wrestlers up. If he goes 6-9 then it's another story. But amazingly Shimanoumi managed to put himself out of any conversation for how far he would move down the juryo ranks. What say he gets a very generous bump up the banzuke for January?

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57 minutes ago, Reonito said:

For completeness, here's my take on juryo <-> makushita:

Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu are toast. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, Oshoumi and Tochimusashi are coming up. There will be between 4 and 6 demotions, depending on how Chiyosakae, Takakento and Tenshoho do tomorrow. Chiyosakae has a random bout against Daishoho, while Takakento and Tenshoho fight promotion-seeking Kitadaichi and and Tsushimanada.

  • Takakento and Tenshoho win: they stay, and Chiyosakae, regardless of his result, gets exchanged with Tochimusashi.
  • All three incumbents lose: we have six exchanges.
  • One of Takakento and Tenshoho wins, Chiyosakae loses: we have five exchanges.
  • One of Takakento and Tenshoho wins, Chiyosakae wins: Chiyosakae may or may not get exchanged with Kitadaichi/Tshushimanada.
  • Takakento and Tenshoho lose, Chiyosakae wins: Chiyosakae may or may not get exchanged with Tshushimanada.

Kayo with a 6-1 is out of the question, I assume?

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28 minutes ago, Reonito said:

My guess is that they'd probably go down as far as they needed to for a kachi-koshi maegashira instead of putting a 6-9 sekiwake at komusubi. They've gone as far down as an 8-7 M6 or 9-6 M8...

With a 6-9 sekiwake as an option? If that's the case, damn. Alright, that's never gonna happen.

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8 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

With a 6-9 sekiwake as an option? If that's the case, damn. Alright, that's never gonna happen.

Yep.

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24 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Kayo with a 6-1 is out of the question, I assume?

Think so, especially given the day 15 pairings.

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So, as I understand it, after today's results the candidates for the last 2 spots in juryo are Tenshoho, Chiyosakae and Tsushimanada.

Who will miss out?

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Chiyosakae, I think. The other two won their exchange bouts. But it's also not entirely impossible for Chiyosakae to stay either, at the possible expense of Tochimusashi. 

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2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Chiyosakae, I think. The other two won their exchange bouts. But it's also not entirely impossible for Chiyosakae to stay either, at the possible expense of Tochimusashi. 

Tochimusashi > Tsushimanada

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6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Chiyosakae, I think. The other two won their exchange bouts. But it's also not entirely impossible for Chiyosakae to stay either, at the possible expense of Tochimusashi. 

Exchanging a 7-8 J13e Chiyosakae with 4-3 Ms3e Tochimusashi would be a coin flip and it could go either way... but exchanging him for 4-3 Ms4w Tsushimanada is unlikely. Possible but not very likely, especially if you consider that in Hatsu 2022 they didn't exchange 4-3 Ms4w for 6-9 J13e as a 5th promotion/demotion.

My guess is there will be only four demotions/promotions: 0-0-15 J6w Hakuoho, 3-12 J9w Takatento, 2-13 J11e Hitoshi and 0-2-13 J14w Azumaryu for 4-3 Ms1e Hakuyozan, 6-1 Ms1w Takerufuji, 4-3 Ms2w Oshoumi and 4-3 Ms3e Tochimusashi.

Edited by Ripe
0-1-14 was due to Covid and withdrawal of Heya

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6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Chiyosakae, I think. The other two won their exchange bouts. But it's also not entirely impossible for Chiyosakae to stay either, at the possible expense of Tochimusashi. 

I think Chiyosake is less demotable than Tenshoho by half a rank.

36 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Exchanging a 7-8 J13e Chiyosakae with 4-3 Ms3e Tochimusashi would be a coin flip and it could go either way... but exchanging him for 4-3 Ms4w Tsushimanada is unlikely. Possible but not very likely, especially if you consider that in Hatsu 2022 they didn't exchange 4-3 Ms4w for 6-9 J13e as a 5th promotion/demotion.

My guess is there will be only four demotions/promotions: 0-0-15 J6w Hakuoho, 3-12 J9w Takatento, 2-13 J11e Hitoshi and 0-2-13 J14w Azumaryu for 4-3 Ms1e Hakuyozan, 6-1 Ms1w Takerufuji, 4-3 Ms2w Oshoumi and 4-3 Ms3e Tochimusashi.

However, I think that they both stay as Ripe has said as a 4-3 Ms4w doesn't look strong enough to force a minimal demotion.

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Recent precedent would have it incumbents are given priority. My two cents are on Chiyosakae staying as J14e and Tsushimanada going ms2.

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The Makuuchi - Juryo line is very clear.  After sorting people by where they should end up, there were 42 rikishi that should be in Makuuchi, so I don't think there's any issues there.

My first pass through the Juryo - Makushita line had Tenshoho as the one losing out as he was the worst of the bunch, but after reading the above comments, it seems reasonable to think that Tsushimanada doesn't have a strong enough case to pull him down.  There's a major logjam at the bottom of Juryo as there are 4 rikishi with demotable records that likely won't be demoted and putting them at the bottom behind the promotees gives those promotees very large promotions for their records.  In the end, this is what I came up with:

Daiamami(9-6 J4e) J1 Mitoryu(9-6 J4w)
Nishikifuji(6-9 M16w) J2 Tohakuryu(5-10 M15e)
Kotoeko(2-8 M10w) J3 Roga(5-10 M16e)
Kitanowaka(5-10 M17e) J4 Tamashoho(9-6 J7w)
Chiyoshoma(8-7 J6e) J5 Oshoma(6-9 J3w)
Tokihayate(8-7 J8w) J6 Takahashi(8-7 J9e)
Kagayaki(5-10 J3e) J7 Shishi(6-9 J5w)
Shimanoumi(9-6 J12e) J8 Shiden(9-6 J12w)
Asakoryu(9-6 J13w) J9 Daishoho(5-10 J7e)
Takerufuji(6-1 Ms1w) J10 Chiyomaru(4-7 J8e)
Akua(5-10 J10e) J11 Tenshoho(5-10 J10w)
Hidenoumi(6-7 J11w) J12 Hakuyozan(4-3 Ms1e)
Yuma(7-8 J13e) J13 Oshoumi(4-3 Ms2w)
Chiyosakae(7-8 J14e) J14 Tochimusashi(4-3 Ms3e)

 

 

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