Seiyashi

Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2023

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On 23/11/2023 at 16:52, Seiyashi said:

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 10

Day 12, I suppose....

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After today's results, the first three makushita-juryo exchanges are clear. Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, and Oshoumi will swap places with Hakuoho, Hitoshi, and Azumaryu. Two exciting sekitori debuts and one meh return. Tomorrow, it's Tochimusashi vs. Chiyosakae in what is likely to end up as a direct exchange bout; Tochimusashi would be 4th in line with a win, and Chiyosakae would be demotable with a loss, although others could still end up in the demotion queue ahead of him, and conversely a win wouldn't leave him safe. Among the other incumbents who are not safe yet, Akua still needs a win, while Chiyomaru, Tenshoho, and Takakento need 2 apiece, although it's debatable what sort of promotion cases could force down Akua even if he ended 5-10, or the other three with one more win. None are paired up tomorrow, so depending on those results, we may see them up against the remaining promotion candidates: Kitadaichi, Tsushimanada, and maybe Kayo? Wakatakakage is on the makushita torikumi tomorrow, and if he can beat Chiyonoumi to finish 5-2, he'd still potentially be in the conversation.

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We now have three demotable records in makuuchi: Nishikifuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka, though none are completely unsalvageable yet. Absent Kotoeko should be the first to go down, and the first opening is definitively spoken for by Kotoshoho. Onosato has a promotable record and would be very unlucky to miss out; one more win will make his promotion certain. The rest of the promotion queue is Bushozan, Shimazuumi, Aoiyama (who would get priority if he can find his 8th win), and Mitoryu. Tohakuryu needs two wins for safety, and might be okay with one, while Takarafuji needs one by the numbers, but may be safe already anyway.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

None are paired up tomorrow, so depending on those results, we may see them up against the remaining promotion candidates: Kitadaichi, Tsushimanada, and maybe Kayo? Wakatakakage is on the makushita torikumi tomorrow, and if he can beat Chiyonoumi to finish 5-2, he'd still potentially be in the conversation.

They're always marked as subject to change, but FWIW, the schedule previews posted on the Kyokai Fanclub have Kayo-Narutaki. Also no head-to-head match for Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada.

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We're not getting a new ozeki. Wakamotoharu will vacate his rank and fall out of sanyaku altogether, but since his slot is supernumerary, we may be back down to two sekiwake. Hokutofuji's latest tenure at komusubi won't be any longer than his previous ones. Abi must win out if he wants to extend his own stay in the named ranks. Atamifuji, Takayasu, and Midorifuji are in a tight race for sanyaku promotion, with Ura not out of it if he can win out.

Edited by Reonito

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Let's not forget that, short of two months ago, a 5-2 ms6e wasn't seen as a serious contender to dislodge either a 3-12 J6w or a 4-11 J8w.

Back in March, a 6-1 ms6e didn't dislodge a 4-11 J9e nor a 5-10 J11e.

I understand that there's more attention on these cases when it's a big name, and that it attracts people who don't usually pay much attention to happenings this far down the banzuke, but it's pretty much a given fact. Wakatakakage is not going up.

Edited by Koorifuu
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On another note, I'm sorry for being unable to post updates on the lower division yusho races as I've done lately. Perhaps I can write a recap on Tuesday.

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7 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Let's not forget that, short of two months ago, a 5-2 ms6e wasn't seen as a serious contender to dislodge either a 3-12 J6w or a 4-11 J8w.

I understand that there's more attention on these cases when it's a big name, and that it attracts people who don't usually pay much attention to happenings this far down the banzuke, but it's pretty much a given fact. Wakatakakage is not going up.

Yeah, Wakatakakage's case pretty much needs extremely favourable results by everybody else plus a big-name bonus. Considering that they put him down at Ms6e to begin with when they could have made things much easier for him with a better position, it seems difficult to imagine that they're going to make any exceptions from how they would usually handle a non-top 5 candidate.

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Yūshō arasoi, Day 13

Makuuchi
11-2: Ō1w Kirishima, M8w Atamifuji

Apologies for the late updates for Day 13.

The yūshō is now a two horse race. Both existing leaders Kirishima and Atamifuji won, while their 3 loss chasers both lost to fall 2 off the pace. With Kirishima v Atamifuji today, this guarantees a yūshō result of 12-3 or better, so all 4-loss rikishi are now automatically eliminated.

A win today still will not guarantee the winner the yūshō, however. The winner will either have to win again on senshūraku to take the cup, or else hope the loser also loses on senshūraku. Otherwise, a playoff may result. 

Jūryō

10-3: J1w Kotoshōhō, J5e Ōnosato
9-4: J12w Shiden, J13w Asakōryū
8-5: J2e Bushōzan, J2w Shimazuumi, J4w Mitoryū, J9e Takahashi

Since Kotoshōhō and Ōnosato have already fought, there is no similar elimination yet. Wins by either of them will put the 8-5 group out of contention - and since both leaders are matched against both 9-4s, the relevant 9-4 will also go out of contention by virtue of falling to 5 losses as well. If both win, jūryō will also become a two horse race, but without the prospect of a H2H in regulation to resolve matters. A playoff may be likely.

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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 13

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

X 0-0-13 Terunofuji Y      
O 9-4 Takakeishō O Kirishima 11-2 O
      O Hōshōryū 8-5 O
O 8-5 Daieishō S Wakamotoharu 4-9 X
O 9-4 Kotonowaka S      
2 6-7 Abi K Hokutofuji 4-9 X
      M1 Ura 6-7 2
      M2      
1 8-5 Takayasu M3      
      M4 Nishikigi 6-7 X
      M5 Midorifuji 9-4 1
      M6      
      M7      
      M8 Atamifuji 11-2 1

Demotion queue: Hokutofuji, Wakamotoharu, Abi
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Midorifuji, Atamifuji, Ura

We have two sanyaku casualties so far: Wakamotoharu, who hit his 9th loss today, and Hokutofuji. This means that we revert to having 2 sekiwake next basho, since there are no falling ōzeki nor any well-performing komusubi. This also means that rather than 2 slots opening in sanyaku now, only 1 will - Hokutofuji's; and it remains to be seen if Abi's will open as well.

The front runners for that slot are Takayasu, Midorifuji, and Atamifuji. It's hard to say at the moment who will get it, as all of them theoretically need only 1 win. My own guess is that Atamifuji will get it if he wins the yūshō or takes Kirishima to a playoff, otherwise Takayasu will get it. Ura may still play spoiler but needs to win out, and in any case a slide from M1w to M1e for an 8-7 is not any real hardship.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

      M10 Kotoekō 2-8-3 X
      ...      
1 5-8 Takarafuji M13      
      M14      
2 5-8 Tōhakuryū M15      
X 4-9 Rōga M16 Nishikifuji 4-9 X
X 5-8 Kitanowaka M17      
1 7-6 Aoiyama J1 Kotoshōhō 10-3 O
1 8-5 Bushōzan J2 Shimazuumi 8-5 1
      J3      
X 7-6 Daiamami J4 Mitoryū 8-5 2
O 10-3 Ōnosato J5      

Demotion queue: KotoekōKitanowaka, Nishikifuji, Rōga, Tōhakuryū
Promotion queue: Kotoshōhō, Ōnosato, Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Shimazuumi

Nishikfuji sealed his fate today with a further loss, although Tōhakuryū managed to stave off demotion for another day. That looks like 4 slots opening in makuuchi, with possibly a 5th courtesy of Tōhakuryū.

Bushōzan and Shimazuumi hit their critical KKs at J2 - while not quite promotable by the numbers just yet, they'd be the next to get the call should any slots in makuuchi open. The question is where Ōnosato fits relative to them at this point. It may well be academic as there is space enough for all of them, but it's likely that Ōnosato would get the jump ahead of these two if he were to win the yūshō or enter a playoff.

Slightly complicating matters is the fact that Daiamami is being sent up against Tōhakuryū today. Not quite an exchange bout since Daiamami doesn't really have a good promotion case relative to everyone else around him, but Tōhakuryū cannot afford to lose either way.

Jūryō <-> makushita

      J6 Hakuōhō 0-0-13 X
      J7      
2 3-6-4 Chiyomaru J8      
      J9 Takakentō 3-10 2
1 5-8 Akua J10 Tenshōhō 4-9 2
X 2-11 Hitoshi J11      
      ...      
2 6-7 Chiyosakae J14 Azumaryū 0-2-11 X
O 4-3 Hakuyōzan Ms1 Takerufuji 5-1 O
      Ms2 Ōshōumi 4-3 O
1 3-3 Tochimusashi Ms3 Kitadaichi 3-3 1
      Ms4 Tsushimanada 3-3 1

 

Demotion queue: Hakuōhō, Azumaryū, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō, Takakentō
Promotion queue: Hakuyōzan, Takerufuji, Ōshōumi, Tochimusashi, Kitadaichi, Tsushimanada

Kitaharima's loss puts paid to any possible promotion, so he takes his leave from the promotion queue. That leaves the usual suspects at the top of makushita.

No changes in demotees from yesterday - all three sekitori in danger won today to give themselves some breathing room. Ōshōumi now speaks for the third open slot after a win yesterday. Tochimusashi today has a straight up exchange bout against Chiyosakae (since Tochimusashi needs a win to be promotable and Chiyosakae cannot lose any more bouts), so a fourth exchange might happen. Tsushimanada and Kitadaichi don't have bouts today, so it's possible they are being held back for a double exchange setup.

However, since jūryō needs an odd number of makushita visitors, there's also a possibility that 5-1 Ms6w Kayō may be brought up for an exchange bout as well. The fact that Wakatakakage is put up against another 4-2 for a regular bout suggests that he's not at all a candidate for promotion this time.

Edited by Seiyashi
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9 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

They're always marked as subject to change, but FWIW, the schedule previews posted on the Kyokai Fanclub have Kayo-Narutaki. Also no head-to-head match for Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada.

That's odd. Then a double exchange setup with Kitadaichi and Tsushimanada will still need one more toriteki to even the numbers. Unless they're gonna shove Takerufuji up again or something - but he's already had a bout with Chiyosakae, so what gives?

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Yūshō arasoi, Day 14

Makuuchi
12-2: Ō1w Kirishima
11-3: M8w Atamifuji

Kirishima had the faster tachiai and neutralised Atamifuji right from the start. The yūshō is now Kirishima's for the taking, along with a tsuna run, if he wins against senior ōzeki Takakeishō tomorrow. Even if he loses, Atamifuji will still need to overcome both Kotonowaka and him to claim the yūshō. Either way, it'll be a deserving yūshō for either of them.

Jūryō

11-3: J1w Kotoshōhō, J5e Ōnosato

Kotoshōhō and Ōnosato dispatched their erstwhile 9-4 competitors, Shiden and Asakōryū, today. That means that, as mentioned earlier today, the jūryō yūshō is down to them both only. Should they both win or lose, a playoff will result; otherwise, the yūshō goes to whoever wins tomorrow. They're both also fighting 9-5s; Kotoshōhō draws Asakōryū while Ōnosato has Mitoryū.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 14

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

X 0-0-14 Terunofuji Y      
O 9-5 Takakeishō O Kirishima 12-2 O
      O Hōshōryū 9-5 O
O 9-5 Daieishō S Wakamotoharu 5-9 X
O 10-4 Kotonowaka S      
X 6-8 Abi K Hokutofuji 5-9 X
      M1 Ura 7-7 1
      M2      
O 9-5 Takayasu M3      
      M4      
      M5 Midorifuji 9-5 1
      M6      
      M7      
      M8 Atamifuji 11-3 1

Demotion queue: Hokutofuji, Wakamotoharu, Abi
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Atamifuji, Ura, Midorifuji

Abi will vacate a second komusubi slot next basho. Takayasu has now done enough to be promotable, although it's still arguably possible that he gets leapfrogged by Ura and Atamifuji if both of them win tomorrow and he loses. Although Atamifuji and Midorifuji have an equivalent rank-record combination, I'm inclined to believe Atamifuji gets the nod over all other 1-win competitors simply because of his much better record and being involved in the yūshō race down to the wire - so the probable, but not confirmed, komusubi next basho are Takayasu and Atamifuji.

In terms of matchups tomorrow, Atamifuji has Kotonowaka. Takayasu gets his old sekiwake nemesis, Tamawashi, who's fighting well this basho, so it won't be a cakewalk for him to win. Meanwhile, Ura has Hokuseihō - this should be an interesting match for sheer contrast if nothing else. Midorifuji has the arguably easiest opponent of the lot in Churanoumi, the only shinnyūmaku to score his KK.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

      M10 Kotoekō 2-8-4 X
      ...      
O 6-8 Takarafuji M13      
      M14      
X 5-9 Tōhakuryū M15      
X 4-10 Rōga M16 Nishikifuji 5-9 X
X 5-9 Kitanowaka M17      
1 7-7 Aoiyama J1 Kotoshōhō 11-3 O
O 9-5 Bushōzan J2 Shimazuumi 9-5 O
      J3      
X 8-6 Daiamami J4 Mitoryū 9-5 1
O 11-3 Ōnosato J5      

Demotion queue: KotoekōKitanowaka, Nishikifuji, Rōga, Tōhakuryū
Promotion queue: Kotoshōhō, Ōnosato, Bushōzan, Shimazuumi, Aoiyama, Mitoryū

Tōhakuryū today now also goes down courtesy of Daiamami. That makes for 5 demotions from makuuchi - Kotoekō, Nishikfuji, and the 3 shinnyūmaku. Going up will be Kotoshōhō, Ōnosato, Bushōzan, and Shimazuumi - the last two of which won today to cement a clearly promotable record. As to who takes the last slot, it's a tossup between Aoiyama and Mitōryū, who need a last win. Mitoryū has Ōnosato tomorrow, so is somewhat unlikely to get that win, while Aoiyama has 8-6 J9e Takahashi. My money will be on Aoiyama going back up in January next year.

Jūryō <-> makushita

      J6 Hakuōhō 0-0-14 X
      J7      
1 4-6-4 Chiyomaru J8      
      J9 Takakentō 3-11 ~
1 5-9 Akua J10 Tenshōhō 4-10 ~
X 2-12 Hitoshi J11      
      J12      
      J13      
X 6-8 Chiyosakae J14 Azumaryū 0-2-12 X
O 4-3 Hakuyōzan Ms1 Takerufuji 5-1 O
      Ms2 Ōshōumi 4-3 O
O 4-3 Tochimusashi Ms3 Kitadaichi 3-3 1
      Ms4 Tsushimanada 3-3 1

Demotion queue: Hakuōhō, Azumaryū, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō, Takakentō
Promotion queue: Hakuyōzan, Takerufuji, Ōshōumi, Tochimusashi, Kitadaichi, Tsushimanada

Well, the bottom's now fallen out of lower jūryō, with Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō, and Takakentō now all also posting demotable records. That being said, the way the bouts are scheduled tomorrow, it's clear that Tochimusashi takes Chiyosakae's slot, and Tenshōhō and Takakentō are not yet considered demoted. We have the following two exchange bouts scheduled tomorrow:

Tsushimanada v Takakentō
Kitadaichi v Tenshōhō

For completeness, Takerufuji is also brought up to face Hitoshi to round up the numbers, but that match is inconsequential for present purposes.

For these reasons, while Akua and Chiyomaru technically need 1 more win to be safe, I doubt that they will be serious candidates for demotion, unless they want to drag up a 5-2 Wakatakakage and/or a possibly 6-1 Kayo. 8 promotions feels like overkill, though.

 

Edited by Seiyashi
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4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

[...] and Tenshōhō and Takakentō are not yet considered demoted.

Perhaps the esoteric ~ symbol could be used in their case. B-)

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Just now, Kashunowaka said:

Perhaps the esoteric ~ symbol could be used in their case. B-)

Gee, it's almost as if someone forgot they existed... ;-)

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On 24/11/2023 at 14:51, Seiyashi said:

Only the first three are demotable. The last three just staved off demotion today, and may yet save themselves if they win out. (Also Takakentō should be ahead of Chiyomaru - Chiyomaru still has a margin of 1 bout.)

I'd say the cases you found are relatively exceptional, especially Kyūshū 2003 (that involved an expansion of the sekitori ranks).

I was at the two of those. Of course I do not have any recollections of why did the rikishi at Ms6 ended up promoted. The only faint memory is the Baruto promotion.

On 24/11/2023 at 14:56, Asashosakari said:

Feels somewhat inappropriate to talk about Wakatakakage's case at all when he's not even the rikishi with the best case outside the top 5 ranks at this time...

I did not say he should be, I was merely wondering if a 5-2 at Ms6 merited a promotion. 
Then I started exploring the chances of 6-9 at J14 staying in Juryo and saw it is plausible so yeah unless someone retires Waka is staying for one more basho in Makushita ranks. 

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6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

As to who takes the last slot, it's a tossup between Aoiyama and Mitōryū, who need a last win. Mitoryū has Ōnosato tomorrow, so is somewhat unlikely to get that win, while Aoiyama has 8-6 J9e Takahashi. My money will be on Aoiyama going back up in January next year.

Daiamami feels very sad now.

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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Daiamami feels very sad now.

If Daiamami wins and Mitoryu and Aoiyama lose, he goes up, is that what you mean? I guess if Tohakuryu also wins to stay level by the numbers, they'd have to decide if today's was really an exchange bout.

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Although Atamifuji and Midorifuji have an equivalent rank-record combination,

I think Atamifuji is currently ahead of Midorifuji by the numbers.

Also, I think Chiyosake warrants a ~. a 7-8 J14 has been saved on a number of occasions and could be conceivably less demotable than Takakento or Tenshoho.

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1 minute ago, Sakura said:

Also, I think Chiyosake warrants a ~. a 7-8 J14 has been saved on a number of occasions and could be conceivably less demotable than Takakento or Tenshoho.

only if they lose their exchange bouts, each of which creates a promotion candidate, right? and he already lost his... I guess they could decide to (say) keep him, demote Takakento, and not promote Tsushimanada despite the outcome of their "exchange bout"?

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Abi will vacate a second komusubi slot next basho. Takayasu has now done enough to be promotable, although it's still arguably possible that he gets leapfrogged by Ura and Atamifuji if both of them win tomorrow and he loses. Although Atamifuji and Midorifuji have an equivalent rank-record combination, I'm inclined to believe Atamifuji gets the nod over all other 1-win competitors simply because of his much better record and being involved in the yūshō race down to the wire - so the probable, but not confirmed, komusubi next basho are Takayasu and Atamifuji.

Atami and Midori aren't equivalent; Atami is a rank ahead of Midori by the math.

That said, I don't think Atami is the probable other komusubi unless, at minimum, you think Ura is probably going to lose to Hokuseiho. Atami is also technically a rank ahead of Ura by math, but even if he wins, it would be kind of astonishing if they only bumped Ura to M1E and took Atami from M8W all the way to K. They've had a tendency, at least recently, to give lower-ranked guys big bumps, but not into the sanyaku, when they're only a little bit ahead on the math. For that reason, if Ura loses and Midori and Atami have the same result as each other, I'm pretty sure they'll give Midori the K spot ahead of Atami. Likewise, if Ura, Midori, and Atami lose, and Tobizaru wins, I think there's a reasonable chance Tobi gets it.

One intriguing wrinkle could come up if Ura, Midori, and Atami all lose, and Gonoyama wins. Gonoyama should still be behind Midori and Atami, and I don't think he would get the K spot, but it'd be interesting...

Edit: If everybody hunting for the K spot loses, I wonder if they would consider Wakamotoharu at 6-9.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy

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For example's sake, if Ura, Midori, and Atami all win, I think we'd see this:

Takayasu   K   Ura
Midorifuji  M1  Atamifuji

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29 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Edit: If everybody hunting for the K spot loses, I wonder if they would consider Wakamotoharu at 6-9.

Why on earth would they do that? It hasn't happened in 73 opportunities in the 6-basho era. I obviously haven't checked all the instances to see if there was a vacant komusubi slot, and who ended up taking it, but Takayasu's already has done enough by the numbers, and Midori and Atami are both kachi-koshi and only one win off, which isn't the sort of "lack of plausible candidates" scenario that would make them even consider doing something unconventional (and it'd be a 7-8 Abi even then, which is something they've done on occasion).

Edited by Reonito
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26 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If Daiamami wins and Mitoryu and Aoiyama lose, he goes up, is that what you mean? I guess if Tohakuryu also wins to stay level by the numbers, they'd have to decide if today's was really an exchange bout.

Yeah, I'm not fully convinced they'd actually exchange Daiamami 9-6 with Tohakuryu 6-9, but as the premise was that Tohakuryu has "done enough" to get sent packing at 9 losses, then that implies they'd push Mitoryu to take his spot even at 9-6, and Daiamami can be better-placed than that.

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