Akinomaki

Aki 2023 discussion (results)

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5 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Surely Miyagino has some coaching that can be effective.

I would have expected it long before now.  He has the physique of a Kotooshu, but the stance (w/o the pushing) of an Akebono??  If he can't get lower at the tachiai, he's going to spend a lot of his matches in what Agadmator would call zugzwang (Hi, Germans!)

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I wouldn't be surprised if Hoshoryu goes kadoban.   He looked unimpressive even beating 0-4 Tamawashi today.

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13 hours ago, dingo said:

After day 5, are we gonna have a 10-5 yusho after a whole 16th day of playoffs? (Beingninja...)
OK I'm being purposely ridiculous here but the way things are going I can't see any rikishi going undefeated for the next 10 days. 

 

12 hours ago, Athenayama said:

Reading the above, I don't think it's ridiculous.

In Makuuchi I see a final 11-4 with a 3 or even more rikishi play off.

A 10-5 yusho is like leaving 42 cats in your front yard for a couple hours and not having any of them step out of the perimeter - it's a virtual statistical impossibility. I can't act too shocked if it's 11-4 this month but it's also not highly probable.

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15 hours ago, sumojoann said:

Kirishima vs Asanoyama —- my favorite bout of the basho!  I kept yelling, “Trip him!  Trip him!!!”  What an ending!  

Apparently he heard you! ;-)

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I know this is not of particular consequence to the ongoing yusho race, but...  Interestingly, for the last two days (4 & 5), tate gyoji Shikimori Inosuke has not used a paper tie for the bundle of papers used in his Torikumi gohiro announcements before the start of the Top Division bouts.  In the past (at least since I've been watching), the announcements always involve the breaking of the tie, and then dropping it casually onto the dohyo, from where whichever hapless yoibidashi is assisting in the ceremony has to pick it up and tuck it into his sleeve.

Not sure if the NSK has introduced a new anti littering campaign or if sumo fans complained about littering the sacred dohyo.  

Interesting or not, it's a development...

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Colour me surprised, but going into this tournament, I had little confidence that Takakeisho would get the 8 wins he needs to protect his Ozeki status, especially after he lost to Hokutofuji on day 1.  

At 4-1 after five days, he is definitely off to a good start.  Now I am wondering if he will surprise me even more and walk away with the yusho. (I know, I know.  Early days...)

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7 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

he's going to spend a lot of his matches in what Agadmator would call zugzwang

Yup, and he will find himself in positions where "there is nothing more to be done".

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54 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

 

A 10-5 yusho is like leaving 42 cats in your front yard for a couple hours and not having any of them step out of the perimeter - it's a virtual statistical impossibility. I can't act too shocked if it's 11-4 this month but it's also not highly probable.

It's happened in juryo about 40 times, with even a 9-6 in there, but it's only 28 cats, and I haven't done the math on how that affects the probability distribution. Generally though, the difference is attributed more to a larger skill range in the top division, so at the moment...

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Down in Juryo, Onosato is on fire.  With Hakuoho sidelined, he has a chance to make a big splash as the next great thing.  But even if he sweeps in that division, it will be quite unlikely for him to shoot up into the Top Division in November.  But he is definitely one to watch.

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1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

But even if he sweeps in that division, it will be quite unlikely for him to shoot up into the Top Division in November.

Why do you say that?  I'd say that the only reason he'd not be promoted with a 15-0 is that there were better candidates to promote.  He's not going to forcing anyone extra down from way down there, but he'll be reasonably near the front of the pack, and it's got to be at least slightly more common to need to dig deeper for promotions than the normally promotable records than have to deny people with promotable records.  We already know one demotion this time (Hakuoho).

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I am all aboard the Onosato train and expect makuuchi early next year, but he's going to get sidestepped or overextend at some point in 15 days. 

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2 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

A 10-5 yusho is like leaving 42 cats in your front yard for a couple hours and not having any of them step out of the perimeter - it's a virtual statistical impossibility. I can't act too shocked if it's 11-4 this month but it's also not highly probable.

This basho is ruled by mediocrity. 15 rikishi are 2-3 and another 11 are 3-2. To finish 11-4, a 3-2 guy needs to go 8-2; in the meantime, among 8 4-1 leaders - Takakeisho and 7 maegashira. 

If we ever get a chance for a 10-5 yusho, this might be it. 

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1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

 But even if he sweeps in that division, it will be quite unlikely for him to shoot up into the Top Division in November.

How do we know that? Sample size is literally zero for his rank; at the same time, every 15-0 Juryo record in history resulted in a promotion.

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20 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Why do you say that?

The main reason I said that was when Hakuoho finished the Summer tournament with a 14-0 record at J8w, his promotion only took him to the very bottom slot in the Top Division for Nagoya.  In this tournament, Onosato is fighting at J14e (about 11 slots lower than where Hakuoho/Ochiai was).  

I prefer to err on the side of caution, and then be pleasantly surprised when I'm wrong.;-)

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8 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

when Hakuoho finished the Summer tournament with a 14-0 record at J8w, his promotion only took him to the very bottom slot in the Top Division for Nagoya.

Where someone ends up in Makuuchi is more of a function of where there is room in Makuuchi than the amount by which they exceeded the promotion criteria.

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

It's happened in juryo about 40 times, with even a 9-6 in there, but it's only 28 cats, and I haven't done the math on how that affects the probability distribution. Generally though, the difference is attributed more to a larger skill range in the top division, so at the moment...

 

59 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This basho is ruled by mediocrity. 15 rikishi are 2-3 and another 11 are 3-2. To finish 11-4, a 3-2 guy needs to go 8-2; in the meantime, among 8 4-1 leaders - Takakeisho and 7 maegashira. 

If we ever get a chance for a 10-5 yusho, this might be it. 

I was going to comment on the difference between 42 and 28 in my initial response but I held back - didn't do the math either but it is a substantial compounding factor.

Also "___ needs to go 8-2" ... fair point, but we also know days 10-15 routinely feature matchups like 10-4 vs 10-4 that eliminate the possibility of a 10-5 yusho. In fact I haven't looked but I wouldn't be surprised if we're on a dozens-of-basho long streak of 10 win vs 10 win forcing an 11-winner at some point during each basho.

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31 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

 

I was going to comment on the difference between 42 and 28 in my initial response but I held back - didn't do the math either but it is a substantial compounding factor.

Also "___ needs to go 8-2" ... fair point, but we also know days 10-15 routinely feature matchups like 10-4 vs 10-4 that eliminate the possibility of a 10-5 yusho. In fact I haven't looked but I wouldn't be surprised if we're on a dozens-of-basho long streak of 10 win vs 10 win forcing an 11-winner at some point during each basho.

Since 1951 (arbitrary cutoff to make sure 15 bouts were fought) in the 11-win yusho circumstances for Makuuchi, of which there are 3: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_wins=11&form1_year=>1950&form1_y=on&form1_m=on 

There would have been an 8-way playoff in Hatsu 1972 had Ozeki Kiyokuni won on day 15. (10-4 v 10-4 not forced).

Kyushu 1996 was very different as strong contenders almost won out early, so 11-4 was the minimum.

Aki 2017 forced 11 with Goeido v Harumafuji on 11-3, 10-4 on day 15 but had Goeido lost on the day prior to Takanoiwa and Harumafuji to Mitakeumi, 10-5 seems possible. Onosho, Kotoshogiku and Asanoyama were all runner-ups, all (not asa) won out their last 2 to reach 10 wins, Onosho and Kotoshogiku already faced the leaders and each other before day 11, and Asanoyama was on the very bottom rung of the banzuke, not to be brought up unless necessary.

So I'd say that Aki 2017 also counts as a recent basho where 10-4 v 10-4 was not forced and 10-5Y was very possible.

Edited by Yarimotsu
asanoyama didn't win day 14 v onosho but this only forces 9 wins
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4 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Tokihayate's foot out by miles well before Asakoryu touched down, major blunder by the gyoji there.

He was looking the other way.

Edited by Bunbukuchagama
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Hokuseiho looking like the sleepiest version of Ichinojo out there. Every time he loses I have more questions. Why does it look like he processes everything and moves so much slower than his opponents? Why can't he flex his knees a tiny bit and take a lower stance? Why does it feel like he's not improving even though he's been in sumo and has been coached by the GOAT for years now? I was all aboard the hype train after watching him beat Asanoyama in a power battle last basho but since then I haven't seen him display the same spirit or aggression even once.

Nephew looking stronger now with a statement win over Asanoyama doing what he does best. Maybe the stumbles of the first few days were just nerves getting the better of him at his new rank?

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The expected Day 4 matchup of Takerufuji vs Tochikamiyama might very well be an early makushita yusho / juryo promotion decider, barring any surprise. There's plenty of quality on the remaining 3-0 makushiteans, but IMO not necessarily close to those two.

Edited by Koorifuu
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