Aki 2023 discussion (results)

[Gurowake 3,886]

2 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Indeed. Achieving Sekiwake is an accomplishment to be sure. But the gap between making Sekiwake and making Ozeki is a cavernous one. 

As might be implied by my previous post, it really isn't on long enough time scales.  We'd had a plethora of Sekiwake the last decade because of the dominance of the top of the banzuke leading it to becoming a revolving door much more than it had been in the past, culminating in the time in 2016 where 3 straight tournaments there were 2 new Sekiwake.  2 of those 6 went on to Ozeki, so maybe 1/3 is a better number for that gap, but I wouldn't call it "cavernous".

[Gurowake 3,886]

With the caveat that this data is probably almost a decade old at this point, and I don't have a clue where it starts so it's hard to know when it ended just based on the number of Y/O, here's what I once collected as data for reaching each rank.  My guess is it's somewhere on the forum already as I don't know why I wouldn't have mentioned it soon after collecting the data.  Sekiwake to Ozeki is closer to 50% than 1/3 actually.

Rank	#	# higher	% promoted	% total	cumul %
Yokozuna	27			0.34%	0.34%
Ozeki	31	27	46.55%	0.39%	0.74%
Sekiwake	71	58	44.96%	0.90%	1.64%
Komusubi	72	129	64.18%	0.91%	2.55%
Maegashira	239	201	45.68%	3.03%	5.59%
Juryo	261	440	62.77%	3.31%	8.90%
Makushita	1553	701	31.10%	19.72%	28.62%
Sandanme	1929	2254	53.88%	24.49%	53.11%
Jonidan	2581	4183	61.84%	32.77%	85.88%
Jonokuchi	1112	6764	85.88%	14.12%	100.00%

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Gurowake

[Ack! 428]

Were there no sansho awarded?

[Gurowake 3,886]

1 minute ago, Ack! said:

Were there no sansho awarded?

Just Kanto-sho for Atamifuji.  The only other one proposed was Shukun-sho for the winner, and since the Ozeki took it, it wasn't awarded.

[Tochinofuji 364]

45 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

With the caveat that this data is probably almost a decade old at this point, and I don't have a clue where it starts so it's hard to know when it ended just based on the number of Y/O, here's what I once collected as data for reaching each rank.  My guess is it's somewhere on the forum already as I don't know why I wouldn't have mentioned it soon after collecting the data.  Sekiwake to Ozeki is closer to 50% than 1/3 actually.

Rank	#	# higher	% promoted	% total	cumul %
Yokozuna	27			0.34%	0.34%
Ozeki	31	27	46.55%	0.39%	0.74%
Sekiwake	71	58	44.96%	0.90%	1.64%
Komusubi	72	129	64.18%	0.91%	2.55%
Maegashira	239	201	45.68%	3.03%	5.59%
Juryo	261	440	62.77%	3.31%	8.90%
Makushita	1553	701	31.10%	19.72%	28.62%
Sandanme	1929	2254	53.88%	24.49%	53.11%
Jonidan	2581	4183	61.84%	32.77%	85.88%
Jonokuchi	1112	6764	85.88%	14.12%	100.00%

 

Thank you for this! Interesting, but probably not all that surprising, that the biggest drop off is between Makushita and Juryo with only 31% promoted. Sekitorihood seems a solid barrier indeed! 

(assuming of course I'm reading the table correctly - which is a pretty big assumption all things told). 

[Jakusotsu 5,761]

5 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Indeed. Achieving Sekiwake is an accomplishment to be sure. But the gap between making Sekiwake and making Ozeki is a cavernous one. 

Judging by the current crop, the gap seems to be closing.

Edit: ...already put into numbers by Gurowake - cheers!

Edited September 27, 2023 by Jakusotsu

[Kotomiyama 161]

I read your speculations about which rank can the youngsters achieve and I can't help thinking on injuries. Just look at Tomokaze, a hot prospect once, now legally disabled and on the verge of returning to Makuuchi after spending a couple of years in hell.

 

[Kaninoyama 1,663]

1 hour ago, Kotomiyama said:

I read your speculations about which rank can the youngsters achieve and I can't help thinking on injuries. Just look at Tomokaze, a hot prospect once, now legally disabled and on the verge of returning to Makuuchi after spending a couple of years in hell.

 

Tomokaze was a bit of an enigma though, as even though he continued to win, he was a hataki-komi specialist (is he still)? Surely he couldn't keep moving upward relying on that one moving-backwards move? Unfortunately, the serious injury occurred just as he had reached joi and we never got a chance to find out. 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Kaninoyama

[Koorifuu 860]

1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

Tomokaze was a bit of an enigma though, as even though he continued to win, he was a hataki-komi specialist (is he still)? Surely he couldn't keep moving upward relying on that one moving-backwards move? Unfortunately, the serious injury occurred just as he had reached joi and we never got a chance to find out. 

He's put on more than 10kgs since those days, and that seems to have made a difference.

A brutal 7 out of his 10 wins in Nagoya were hatakikomi, but he was able to mix his game up in Aki and remain successful: 11 wins, and only one (senshuraku, no less).

[Katooshu 3,089]

When Tomokaze is on form his thrusting is quite powerful as well - and that's also one of the keys to making pulls/slap downs work at a high level. On his initial run he could often overwhelm opponents without needing to pull, or he had them so off balance or leaning forward to resist that the hatakikomi came easily. His power was notably diminished as he started climbing the banzuke again and he did a lot more backpedaling and trickery than before, but this basho he looked closer to the 2018-2019 version than I've seen at any other time during his comeback. This included blasting out soon to be makuuchi rikishi Kitanowaka and Roga with strong oshi attacks.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Katooshu

[Benevolance 2,472]

Chiyotairyu demonstrated aptly that a rikishi could have a career despite rarely moving forward, provided they did not aim for the sanyaku. 

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

15 hours ago, Gurowake said:

With the caveat that this data is probably almost a decade old at this point, and I don't have a clue where it starts so it's hard to know when it ended just based on the number of Y/O, here's what I once collected as data for reaching each rank.  My guess is it's somewhere on the forum already as I don't know why I wouldn't have mentioned it soon after collecting the data.  Sekiwake to Ozeki is closer to 50% than 1/3 actually.

Rank	#	# higher	% promoted	% total	cumul %
Yokozuna	27			0.34%	0.34%
Ozeki	31	27	46.55%	0.39%	0.74%
Sekiwake	71	58	44.96%	0.90%	1.64%
Komusubi	72	129	64.18%	0.91%	2.55%
Maegashira	239	201	45.68%	3.03%	5.59%
Juryo	261	440	62.77%	3.31%	8.90%
Makushita	1553	701	31.10%	19.72%	28.62%
Sandanme	1929	2254	53.88%	24.49%	53.11%
Jonidan	2581	4183	61.84%	32.77%	85.88%
Jonokuchi	1112	6764	85.88%	14.12%	100.00%

 

This is an awesome table and a wakeup call that I need to work on the % of "kom[o]subi" misspellings on the site that trace back to my handle.