Aki 2023 discussion (results)

[just_some_guy 256]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

(though you might argue if he goes 15-0 and loses the yusho to Takanosho that might be enough).

Are we doing next basho's ridiculous predictions already?

Edited September 24, 2023 by just_some_guy

[Wakaebala 151]

5 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Just catching up to the conversation (time zones!), and I don't even understand how what Takekeisho did is considered a henka unless literally any lateral movement on the tachiai is a henka. What Takekeisho did is attempt an immediate pulldown; his footwork options with that strategy are either backwards or sideways, because it won't work to stay in place and it's a much different strategy to charge first as a setup for a pulldown. If he went backwards and got the same result, we might be disappointed at the fight being quick or lacking much contact, but no one's screaming "HENKA!" at the top of their lungs despite the fact he used the same core strategy. To put it another way: a henka, at least as I've always understood it, is about using the sidestep/avoidance of contact to create an opportunity. Here, the footwork was part and parcel of the strategy to go for a pulldown, which is the reverse cause and effect.

If you dislike the fact Keisho didn't stand the kid up again and beat him that way, OK. I'm not gonna argue you should like this fight; that's a personal choice. And if you can truly, genuinely say that you dislike immediate stepback pulldowns as much as henkas, I acknowledge the consistency. But if you're mad about this sidestep because it's a "henka" and wouldn't be bothered if he made the same thing work going backwards rather than sideways, that feels very arbitrary and unfair.

No, I'm mad about that Takakeisho never even thought about putting his hands down at tachiai! With his hands down PROPERLY, he never could've pulled off this ©®@p!

Actually I think that this is a Kyokai problem. If the gyoji are unable to call these faults, they should tell one or two shimpan to watch the hands!
Or... in around the 25th century the could install some kind of sensor in the floor of the dohyo... (?)

Anyway, this was just unfair,  but no, not because of the henka but because of the hands.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I like to cover every possible scenario, no matter how ludicrous.  No one would quibble about a 13Y - 13J promotion, so what's so different about 11Y - 15D?  As long as it's possible, I'll keep it in mind.

15D is impossible mathematically. 

[Gurowake 3,915]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

15D is impossible mathematically. 

Possible for Takakeisho if Takanosho also goes 15-0. (I deleted the post he quoted while he was quoting it, sorry)

Edited September 24, 2023 by Gurowake

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

Possible for Takakeisho if Takanosho also goes 15-0.

Has it ever happened? Wouldn't they get a bout at some point?

[Gurowake 3,915]

Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

Has it ever happened? Wouldn't they get a bout at some point?

No, two members of a heya have not both gone 15-0 before.  But there have been same-heya playoffs.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

No, two members of a heya have not both gone 15-0 before.  But there have been same-heya playoffs.

You are right, it's not impossible - just extremely unlikely.

[Benihana 1,901]

2 hours ago, bettega said:

This was a bad basho, everybody should be ashamed. 

Except Ura! He scored 9-6 and did his best to entertain us, he's a good boy.

[Asetama3D 27]

15 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Roga is the king of 8-7s.

Still a long way to go...

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

5 minutes ago, Asetama3D said:

Still a long way to go...

He likes 9-6s too. And 4-3s before that...

2022.05	Ms4e		4-3
2022.07	Ms2e		4-3
2022.09	Ms1w		4-3
2022.11	J13w		9-6
2023.01	J9e		9-6
2023.03	J5e		8-7
2023.05	J4w		9-6
2023.07	J2e		8-7
2023.09	J1e		8-7

Edited September 24, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Godango 956]

1 hour ago, Ripe said:

In entire history there was 17 cases of Ozeki winning two consecutive yusho... 15 of those led to promotion. Two remaining case are Tamanishiki who got promoted following his third consecutive Yusho and Chiyonoyama who won his first two basho he fought as Ozeki.

So I'd say that if he manages to win next one he'd get the rope. But he must win the yusho, no other result would be enough as we saw in the past when he wasn't promoted following 12-3 D, 12-3 Y.

How do you count this as his 7 potential tsuna runs? By my count this would be his 5th shot... but that is when counting his two 12-3 D results as start of the run which I'm not sure we should do considering that wasn't enough to get him the rope even when he followed that result with a 12-3 Y.

I was indeed including the doten in the 'potential', five definitive tsuna runs (assuming we include this).

My thinking in including them; 12-3 D isn't unprecedented as being included in a tsuna run, though admittedly pre-Futahaguro.

Had he followed up with a strong yusho promotion could have been justified. Arguably could have been included justified with 12-3, but not surprising it was missed. It's only in hindsight that you'd say these definitely weren't tsuna runs, imo.

But the point stands if we go with the five.

 

[Reonito 1,335]

8 minutes ago, Asetama3D said:

Still a long way to go...

The consecutive record appears to be six.

[Koorifuu 886]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

The consecutive record appears to be six.

The last one of those. The good old Ozeki Backscratching Club at its finest!

[Ripe 70]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

15D is impossible mathematically. 

Highly unlikely but not impossible... remember, rikishi from same heya cannot face each other except during playoffs.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

It's only in hindsight that you'd say these definitely weren't tsuna runs, imo.

Well, it's a tsuna run if it's implicit (in the case of a yusho) or explicitly stated by the powers that be that a specific result in the subsequent basho would result in promotion. By this definition, this would only be his third. Of course, sometimes promotions do indeed happen outside such runs (though I'm not sure how far back we'd have to go for yokozuna).

Edited September 24, 2023 by Reonito

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, Ripe said:

Highly unlikely but not impossible... remember, rikishi from same heya cannot face each other except during playoffs.

Yes, I already realized that.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

lol, I got a kick out of the fact that my YouTube comments had "Abi's gonna henka" and me saying "they're gonna have the kid ready" and Atami got through exactly that strategy. Abi henkas are big, unapologetic henkas. That's also part of why, while I get what you're saying, *I* still wouldn't call what Keisho did a henka—it didn't look like much of an evasion attempt. If Atami had done anything other than barrel directly into the strategy, there would have been big contact. It's not unusual for guys to start in ways that minimize instant, heavy contact. Takakeisho's just not often one of them. It really feels like, if he had stepped off but braced for the charge as a different strategy, no one would say boo about it.

But I'm not trying to fight about the issue! I really was puzzled about it being called a henka, and I appreciate your explanation. Maybe I just have a hard time seeing it that way because my introduction to henkas were the big-jump Chiyoshoma types.

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but it's easy to tell if it was a real juicy henka: the perpetrator does the Grand Disinterested Stare.  It's the same look when they do a quick slap-down, only more so:

(Big fat henka) "So, wonder what I should have for dinner; that gyoza shop is on the way to the heya ... maybe pick up my laundry ... well, first I have to squat down and get this kensho for some reason ..."

[maglor 122]

On 23/09/2023 at 17:54, Sakura said:

Why does you query stop in 2015?

Whilst most Ozeki  who already have KK in a larger timeframe (and with a greater win range) don't win, not every Ozeki gives up trying.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&year=1980-now&day=15&rank1=O&wins1=8-10&winsopt1=1&rank2=O&wins2=7&winsopt2=1

Shodai and Goeido have exceptional hinkaku and would never think about doing some good old back-scratching

[Rocks 1,807]

5 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, if The Hamster ends up  being as good as Terunofuji, we'll see him as a mighty berserker too.

However, he is an injury-prone Ozeki who is not even too dominant when healthy.

Of the 26 basho since achieving the rank of Ozeki  18 of those were ones he fought all 15 days. In those 18 he has 186 wins, averaging 10.33 per basko. Of those 18 he has won 3 Yusho and 6 Jun yusho, losing 3 playoffs. Not bad. 

[Sakura 1,472]

19 minutes ago, maglor said:

Shodai and Goeido have exceptional hinkaku and would never think about doing some good old back-scratching

I don't think it's just those fighting for KK who might have the hinkaku in these situations. I can't imagine Kisenosato gifting a win to Goeido in that situation either, which is my point. In fact Kirishima, who had nothing to fight for was able to eliminate Takayasu from yusho contention.

 

[Yamanashi 3,724]

19 minutes ago, maglor said:

Shodai and Goeido have exceptional hinkaku and would never think about doing some good old back-scratching

Well,, Goeido ... he never had more than 12 wins in Makuuchi, except the 15-0 zensho; OTOH, a 15-0 can certainly be within statistical limits, what with all the double-digit basho he earned.  Now, is someone claiming that he would forego a 13-win basho to help a fellow san'yaku make KK?  I dunno.

Shodai:  no one would arrange a fixed match with him, because he's not smart enough to keep it a secret.  He'd be going to the gyoji and saying "Now I'm throwing this match, so make sure you point your gunbai toward the other guy."

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,245]

Are we sure it was a henka or simply the Earth's gravitational field shifting?

[rhyen 1,809]

57 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I don't think it's just those fighting for KK who might have the hinkaku in these situations. I can't imagine Kisenosato gifting a win to Goeido in that situation either, which is my point. In fact Kirishima, who had nothing to fight for was able to eliminate Takayasu from yusho contention.

 

Big fat kensho stack (almost 60 envelops, so ¥18M)

[Sakura 1,472]

Just now, rhyen said:

Big fat kensho stack (almost 60 envelops, so ¥18M)

Fair enough. 

[rhyen 1,809]

5 hours ago, Kotomiyama said:

As usual, let me share a couple of thoughts about some rikishi.

Midorifuji: After 7 years in sumo, he seems to have found his way of fighting via katasukashi. He has a 24% win rate using this kimarite, probably the finest user of this technique ever? (I don't know how to look for this statistics in sumodb). He is my favourite small guy in Makuuchi he is brave, fun to watch and I hope he will last longer than Enho or 

 

 

 

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_kim.aspx?r=12352
 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001379/
 

after Aki 23, he has already used it 61 times. He has already overtaken the historic leader and is about to lap the top 2.