Aki 2023 discussion (results)

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

A 5-5 komusubi is a very credible opponent; is a 7-3 M1 really obviously tougher?

Well, do you personally think Tobizaru is a more dangerous opponent than Hokutofuji at the moment? Hoku is technically a contender, and all Tobizaru has to show for himself is the letter "K" in front of his shikona.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, do you personally think Tobizaru is a more dangerous opponent than Hokutofuji at the moment? Hoku is technically a contender, and all Tobizaru has to show for himself is the letter "K" in front of his shikona.

His mobility could be a problem for Atami, he needs wins to get to 8, and he's generally performed at a higher level over the past year or so, discounting last basho and this one. It's close enough that the "K" wins out, I think. Those inclined to complain about strength of schedule usually complain more about the lack of san'yaku opponents than about exactly which maegashira someone faced.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

4 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Even in Parity Basho 2023, it's hard to see 11-4 winning a yusho without a playoff. So, even if it's in a 16th fight, he should need at least two wins past Tobi (and if Tobi can handle Takakeisho, he can find a way to beat Atami—this is not easy schedule central).

Here is a reasonably unlikely but still realistic scenario: Atami  beats The Monkey and proceeds to get stomped by any combination of Kotonowaka/Wakamoto/Daieisho/Kirishima/Hoshoryu; Takakeisho drops one bout and both of them have 10 wins ahead of the final match. Then something happens - 'Keisho slips and falls, for example - this basho had all kinds of twists already. Wouldn't Atamifuji's yusho get a sizeable asterisk next to it?

You might say that nobody else getting 11 wins would be unlikely; however, Takayasu looked realy hurt yesterday, and Hokutofuji/Tsurugisho/Onosho/Endo will inevitably cannibalize some of each other's wins. Anybody else needs to win out to get to 11. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

His mobility could be a problem for Atami, he needs wins to get to 8, and he's generally performed at a higher level over the past year or so, discounting last basho and this one. It's close enough that the "K" wins out, I think. Those inclined to complain about strength of schedule usually complain more about the lack of san'yaku opponents than about exactly which maegashira someone faced.

I don't think considerations of rikishi's style should be relevant to torikumi-making. They could spare a 6-4 Sekiwake for him if sanyaku label is so essential at this point.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

His mobility could be a problem for Atami, he needs wins to get to 8, and he's generally performed at a higher level over the past year or so, discounting last basho and this one. It's close enough that the "K" wins out, I think. Those inclined to complain about strength of schedule usually complain more about the lack of san'yaku opponents than about exactly which maegashira someone faced.

To add to this, the committee bases their scheduling decisions on rank, and later on record; the people sitting in those positions are irrelevant. If Tobizaru ends up not being much of a match for Atami, that's not Atami's fault. If Hokutofuji would have been a more difficult fight for Atami, that's not Atami's fault. We might say it wasn't super-impressive (that's been said about guys with 12-3 yushos plenty of times), but there's no asterisk or anything else to suggest it was a uniquely weak victory.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

I don't think considerations of rikishi's style should be relevant to torikumi-making. They could spare a 6-4 Sekiwake for him if sanyaku label is so essential at this point.

...you realize they will, right? Especially with lower-ranked contenders, they generally (though, depending on contender status amongst the sanyaku, not always) run guys up the sanyaku ladder once they start getting to that level of opposition. That means starting with a komusubi.

After that, the remaining possible opponents are about as tough of a challenge as the sport has right now. Daieisho will need an opponent on day 12. Kotonowaka will need someone on 13 and 14; they could easily break Takakeisho and Hoshoryu on 13 to make Keisho/Atami, then do Atami/Koto on 14 to keep the sanyaku v. sanyaku schedule flowing as normally as possible. If he hasn't clinched, a matchup with any contender in range on 15 makes sense. They could work Kirishima in with a different rotation. Hell, Hoshoryu could play a role if he goes on a run and gets to, say, 7-6.

Dude's gonna get it in the chops, is what I'm saying. This is essentially like Midorifuji's schedule upgrade when he started 10-0. Atami's quite likely to do better than 0-5, but the fact he's starting with Tobizaru doesn't denigrate the difficulty of what's to come.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

6 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

..you realize they will, right? Especially with lower-ranked contenders, they generally (though, depending on contender status amongst the sanyaku, not always) run guys up the sanyaku ladder once they start getting to that level of opposition. That means starting with a komusubi.

I understand the idea, but the time is short, and the sanyaku is particularly underwhelming this time around. If Hokutofuji wins today, does he deserve a bout with the leader? He already cleared his sanyaku schedule. Onosho is still flying under the radar, and so is Endo; if they keep winning, shouldn't they also have a go against him? 

In view of the above, Tobizaru seems to be a (likely) waste of a day for Atamifuji.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Reonito 1,335]

40 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Here is a reasonably unlikely but still realistic scenario: Atami  beats The Monkey and proceeds to get stomped by any combination of Kotonowaka/Wakamoto/Daieisho/Kirishima/Hoshoryu; Takakeisho drops one bout and both of them have 10 wins ahead of the final match. Then something happens - 'Keisho slips and falls, for example - this basho had all kinds of twists already. Wouldn't Atamifuji's yusho get a sizeable asterisk next to it?

I mean, if someone wanted to put an asterisk next to that, I'd understand, but it wouldn't be because he faced Tobizaru instead of Hokutofuji on Day 11.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

1 hour ago, Octofuji said:

no-one in the top 18 wrestlers (down to M5) has a score of less than 4-6.

   ... aaaaand no-one has a record better than 7-3.  The elite ranks have reached blissful equity: none are disparaged, none are feared.

[Gospodin 187]

Ugh. That coconut crack tachiai sapped Takayasu of all his strength.

[Gurowake 3,915]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

As for getting Tobi instead of Hokutofuji: it makes sense in the context of putting Tsurugisho against Hokutofuji instead.

What you might be missing that's very important here is that of the three top-rankers that they put down against the maegashira doing well, Hokutofuji was the only one that *could* face Tsurugisho, as the latter is in the same heya as Daieisho and Tobizaru.  Now that Tsurugisho has another loss, I find it less likely he gets someone at the top of the banzuke and more likely someone in the mid-maegashira range doing decently but has at least 4 losses. 

If we're going to see Takakeisho against Atamifuji, they're presumably going to breakup his match with Hoshoryu and not Kirishima or Daieisho, as that has the side effect of giving a MK-trending Ozeki weaker opponents so he's more likely to get a KK, which I swear has been one of their goals when you look at what pairings they've broken up in the past.  Daieisho makes the most sense for Atamifuji for Day 12, as the former will presumably be occupied for the last three days.

[Iwayama 25]

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, do you personally think Tobizaru is a more dangerous opponent than Hokutofuji at the moment? Hoku is technically a contender, and all Tobizaru has to show for himself is the letter "K" in front of his shikona.

And two wins over Ozeki this basho. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 minute ago, Iwayama said:

And two wins over Ozeki this basho. 

Should we count losses against Maegashira too? 

[Reonito 1,335]

28 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Should we count losses against Maegashira too? 

It's worth noting that they did the day 11 schedule before the day 10 bouts were fought, so we could easily be looking at both Tobizaru and Hokutofuji being 6-4, not to mention Atami being 8-2, alongside Tsurugisho. Maybe knowing day 10 results you'd do it differently...

[Godango 956]

I'm behind the 8-ball as I have a lot going on, just watched day 10.

All I can say is, "...of course".

[rhyen 1,809]

10 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I agree; they should be matching him based on record now instead of trying to "work him up the sanyaku gradually". If he beats Tobizaru, he will be difficult to catch, and there will be a lot of whining about his supereasy schedule should he end up winning the whole thing. 

It won’t be easier than tokushoryu’s

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=11726&b=202001

[rhyen 1,809]

Asakiryu is helped off the dohyo and wheeled out, groin injury?

[Yangnomazuma 77]

13 hours ago, dingo said:

After the disastrous first try Takakeisho had to make sure he'd be in a good position to get kachikoshi. I don't like his pulldown but it was effective.

Against someone who will routinely go for a leg pick?  He did exactly what he  should  do when  the little man ducks down to get the leg.  He  put his weight on  him and helped  him get lower.  He didn't pull...he simply pushed down after the leg pick try.

[Katooshu 3,135]

Oh dear Kiho looks a mess. So much tape it looks like he's in pants.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Onosato is angry. 

[Katooshu 3,135]

Akebono style blast out of Churanoumi there.......

[dingo 1,160]

8 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Should we count losses against Maegashira too? 

All the ozeki have losses against Maegashira this basho so I guess we are not gonna be able to find a worthy opponent to mighty Atamifuji. The only thing left to do is to ferry out Terunofuji, even if he has to drive up the dohyo in a wheelchair. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Hokuseiho - Aoiyama was rather comical. A slapping match of two huge teddy bears. 

[Akinomaki 39,776]

Magaki on Abema told that conventional sumo is not for Hokuseiho, he has to do sumo his own way

[rhyen 1,809]

52 minutes ago, dingo said:

All the ozeki have losses against Maegashira this basho so I guess we are not gonna be able to find a worthy opponent to mighty Atamifuji. The only thing left to do is to ferry out Terunofuji, even if he has to drive up the dohyo in a wheelchair. 

Terunofuji & Atamifuji are heya-mates?