Guess Kotonowaka's Aite - September 2023 edition

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

24 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Going out on a limb here and doing something wild.

13. Tsurugisho

I considered this initially. There's at least one specific path I saw where this is exactly what happens.

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

So, who do we think they throw at Atami, if it's not our boy? My guess is they don't mess around and escalate all the way to Kirishima, followed by Hoshoryu and Takakeisho as needed, although it would be a shame to skip Kirishima v. Daieisho given their records.

Battle Hamster. It breaks the Takakeisho/Hoshoryu matchup and puts Hoshoryu against Shonannoumi (most likely), which I imagine does a lot of good things in the committee's eyes.

Basically, I'm calling these matchups:

Keisho/Atami
Takayasu/Tsurugisho
Hoshoryu/Shonannoumi
Koto/Abi

A lot of the rest should fall in pretty naturally if those happen.

[Bunbukuchagama 701]

13. Abi

[Tetsuba 32]

13. Abi

[Jakusotsu 5,873]

The limb doesn't limp.

Reonito (YOw) 11-2
Sumo Spiffy (S1w) 10-3
Gurowake (YOe) 9-4
Bunbukuchagama (K1e) 9-4
Sakura (Y1e) 8-5
Tetsuba (M1e) 8-5
Jejima (M4w) 8-5
Profomisakari (S1e) 7-6
Oshirokita (M2e) 7-6
Hakuhonofan (M2w) 7-4-2
Jakusotsu (K1w) 6-7
Fashiriteta (M6e) 6-7
shimodahito (M1w) 4-7-2
Athenayama (M6w) 4-9
rokudenashi (mz) 3-10
Seiyashi (M3e) 2-0-11
The Kyokai (M5e) 1-12
Ryoshishokunin (M4e) 0-0-13
Hoshotakamoto (M5w) 0-0-13
WAKATAKE (M3w) kosho

Kotonowaka's aites: 1. Shodai, 2. Asanoyama, 3. Tamawashi, 4. Takanosho, 5. Tobizaru, 6. Nishikigi, 7. Daieisho, 8. Hokutofuji, 9. Hoshoryu, 10. Meisei, 11. Kirishima, 12. Takakeisho, 13. Abi

[Athenayama 998]

Day 14 : Gonoyama

[Jakusotsu 5,873]

Day 14 - Mitakeumi

[shimodahito 304]

14.ura

[Sakura 1,480]

6 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

The limb doesn't limp.

Sadly no, but I should get an honoarable mention for not being 100% convinced that Takayasu vs Tsurugisho was the only way forward and that noting that Tsurugisho would get a Sekiwake opponent.

I just chose the wrong Sekiwake opponent for Tsurugisho.

[Fashiritētā 171]

14.URA

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

3 hours ago, Sakura said:

Sadly no, but I should get an honoarable mention for not being 100% convinced that Takayasu vs Tsurugisho was the only way forward and that noting that Tsurugisho would get a Sekiwake opponent.

I just chose the wrong Sekiwake opponent for Tsurugisho.

Definitely props for taking a shot at a comeback. What I thought would lead to Tsurugisho against Koto was, specifically, a lineup of Atami/Keisho, then Takayasu/Waka (higher-ranked sekiwake vs. higher-ranked contender), which then would land Koto against Tsurugisho. I knew they might not do Takayasu/Tsurugisho, but I didn't bank on them putting one of them against a free sekiwake and not the other. That was the real surprise for me.

Well, amongst those guys, at least. In retrospect, Hoshoryu/Kiri isn't as surprising as it was when I first saw it, but I was a bit flummoxed by that fight initially. With Hoshoryu at 6-6, I gotta figure Atami's schedule now goes Keisho/Kiri/Hoshoryu if Hoshoryu is at least 7-7. Then they can put Keisho/Hoshoryu on 14 and Kiri/Keisho on 15, and in that case, Daieisho winds up being the potentially biggest winner of them all.

Edit: BTW, my day is such that I may end up posting a guess quite late without specifically waiting on Reo.

Another edit: Kiri's not really in contention, so maybe him against Hoshoryu makes more sense than Keisho against Hoshoryu on 14...? WHY IS IT SO COMPLICATED

Edited September 21, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Jejima 1,345]

14 - Ura - yep, I think the same

[Gurowake 4,012]

4 hours ago, Sakura said:

Sadly no, but I should get an honoarable mention for not being 100% convinced that Takayasu vs Tsurugisho was the only way forward and that noting that Tsurugisho would get a Sekiwake opponent.

I just chose the wrong Sekiwake opponent for Tsurugisho.

I had the same thought, and then determined it would be Wakamotoharu because he had already faced Abi and Kotonowaka hadn't, so it made more sense to have Kotonowaka finish off the joi maegashira still in the yusho hunt.  Except that thought was about who Atamifuji would face, so I was right with the half you were wrong with and vice versa.  Because my correct half was directly related to the target of this game, I get the point.  Maybe we should have a "guess the entire torikumi" game for the Yokozuna of this game.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Gurowake

[Jakusotsu 5,873]

18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Maybe we should have a "guess the entire torikumi" game for the Yokozuna of this game.

Sure, as long as you take care of managing the results too.

[Sakura 1,480]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I had the same thought, and then determined it would be Wakamotoharu because he had already faced Abi and Kotonowaka hadn't, so it made more sense to have Kotonowaka finish off the joi maegashira still in the yusho hunt.  Except that thought was about who Atamifuji would face, so I was right with the half you were wrong with and vice versa.  Because my correct half was directly related to the target of this game, I get the point.  Maybe we should have a "guess the entire torikumi" game for the Yokozuna of this game.

I actually had Waka - Takayasu and Kotonowaka - Tsurigisho, that was my issue. Had I discounted Takayasu from having a Sanyaku opponent I would have ended up right. Ah well.

[Sakura 1,480]

14 Ura

Edited September 21, 2023 by Sakura

[Profomisakari 845]

Yes, day 13  - Ura

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

Le sigh. I want to come up with something clever, but

14. Ura

is the most logical option by far. It's either him or a contender, and if they go with a contender, it's essentially a dart throw as to who.

That being said, what happens tonight could make day 15's guess absolute hell. A Takakeisho win, especially, would make day 14's results critical to the day 15 schedule, which means we'd be playing two games at the same time.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Gurowake 4,012]

14. Kinbozan

[Sakura 1,480]

14 Mitakeumi

[Reonito 1,384]

Sorry @Sumo Spiffy I was just about to post when I got distracted with the promotion/demotion thread. I'm picking

14. Ura

so if this alters your calculus at all, please go ahead and change your pick. I looked at the Kinbozan/Mitakeumi options, but there are other reasonable opponents for them, and I wouldn't know which of them to pick. Plenty of other permutations too, so going with the default choice if they end up solving the other puzzles without involving our boy

[Hakuhonofan 334]

14. Ura

[Seiyashi 4,072]

14. Ura

[Tetsuba 32]

14. Ura

[Oshirokita 173]

14. Onosho

 

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Sorry @Sumo Spiffy I was just about to post when I got distracted with the promotion/demotion thread. I'm picking

14. Ura

so if this alters your calculus at all, please go ahead and change your pick. I looked at the Kinbozan/Mitakeumi options, but there are other reasonable opponents for them, and I wouldn't know which of them to pick. Plenty of other permutations too, so going with the default choice if they end up solving the other puzzles without involving our boy

It's all good. Given the discussion of day 15 possibilities over in the promotion/demotion thread, there's a pretty good chance we'll have some options there to sift through.