Newer Ozeki Kotonowaka?

[Ripe 70]

17 hours ago, Reonito said:

I think another key factor is the win total over the two basho. Obviously with Y-Y they'd probably have to promote even if the totals are low (I don't know what they'd do with <12 wins, and hopefully we'll never have to find out). But without that, it seems like the de facto threshold is 26 (with a yusho) since the standards got tightened up post-Futahaguro. For a while, only Y-Y would do. None of the 3 most recent promotions had that, but they had 14-1 D 14-1 Y (Kakuryu), 12-3 J 14-1 Y (Kisenosato), 12-3 Y 14-1 J (Terunofuji). 12-12 wasn't going to cut it without Y-Y.

Why is it that people keep insisting that Kisenosato was promoted based on just 12-3 J 14-1 Y? Do you really believe that he'd get the rope if the tournament preceding those were 9-6's or 8-7's instead of what he got? Or that he would be promoted if he actually went kadoban prior to that run? If Kisenosato didn't have a run he had (13-2 J, 13-2 J, 12-3 J, 10-5, 12-3 J, 14-1 Y) he most likely wouldn't get promoted.

Same is most likely true for Terunofuji... his 12-3 Y 14-1 J might not be enough if they weren't preceded by 13-2 Y (even if that result was at Sekiwake).

31 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think they said at the time Kise would be promoted even before his final bout.

That might have been because he was confirmed to win a Yusho on Day 14... considering his full 6 basho run there is a little difference between 13-2 Y and 14-1 Y

Edited August 10, 2023 by Ripe

[Gospodin 187]

Kotonowaka does not ozeki sumo. Not a single one-minute standoff followed by a uwatenage win in his entire career. I am sure Satodagake views him as a failure and disgrace to the shikona. 

[Akinomaki 40,038]

The guess in the net-only semi-tabloid that summarizes "voices" in Japan is that a 14-1 yusho is needed for his promotion, as the next in line thoroughbread on the start https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200031142

- No doubt he'll fail to get this

The latest article gives for the actual first one, who made it with the required 12-3, a likely 60% that he gets kadoban right away - of the last five new ozeki  only Asanoyama and Mitakeumi avoided that. https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200031197

- Kirishima maybe made the unnecessary return from kyujo to avoid that to become the normality. And Hoshoryu now went 0-9 against him at the jungyo keiko - the jungyo has regained his old wrecking form of twenty or so locations, kyujo should multiply

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Shikona 139]

The shin-Ozeki jinx is a very recent phenomenon. I looked through the "career Ozeki" back to Kotoosho and it was 7:4 in favor of those who did Not go kadoban first time out. And during that time  there were six who went on to become Yokozuna (back to Asashoryu), and none of them were kadoban in basho 1, so it's actually 13:4 in favor of shin-Ozeki kachi koshi.

[Bunbukuchagama 701]

59 minutes ago, Shikona said:

The shin-Ozeki jinx is a very recent phenomenon. I looked through the "career Ozeki" back to Kotoosho and it was 7:4 in favor of those who did Not go kadoban first time out. And during that time  there were six who went on to become Yokozuna (back to Asashoryu), and none of them were kadoban in basho 1, so it's actually 13:4 in favor of shin-Ozeki kachi koshi.

The sample size is very small. Kirishima got injured - and so did the other two shin-kadoban-Ozeki, I assume. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Akinomaki 40,038]

12 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

The sample size is very small. Kirishima got injured - and so did the other two shin-kadoban-Ozeki, I assume. 

Everybody gets injured recently, Hoshoryu with his all-out care-for-nothing sumo looks close to that. The way he lost at the jungyo now shows that even there he doesn't do the slow enactment of a bout that is typical for a jungyo.