Newer Ozeki Kotonowaka?

[Benihana 1,901]

Just now, Fashiritētā said:

Those M14-16 guys finished with good records, and one was a debutante that upset a few people.

Yeah, still M14-16 and it's not really a big feat to score well in low makuuchi, if you're mildly competent.

[Reonito 1,335]

23 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Still have a hard time believing they would promote him in his sekiwake debut. There might be some recommending that he wait one more tournament to make sure he is ready. 

It's never happened in the 6-basho era, though Wakanohana and Takakeisho are the only ones with strong cases.

[Benevolance 2,478]

If watching sumo has taught me anything, Kotonowaka will drop four of his first five and guarantee the discussion moot. 

[Benihana 1,901]

17 hours ago, Benevolance said:

If watching sumo has taught me anything, Kotonowaka will drop four of his first five and guarantee the discussion moot. 

Finally someone with common sense.

[Reonito 1,335]

20 hours ago, Benevolance said:

If watching sumo has taught me anything, Kotonowaka will drop four of his first five and guarantee the discussion moot. 

Ah, I fondly remember all the "Next Yokozuna Takakeisho" topics.

[Gurowake 3,915]

21 hours ago, Benihana said:

Yeah, still M14-16 and it's not really a big feat to score well in low makuuchi, if you're mildly competent.

Nishikigi lost to 3 of those guys.  He'd have won the Yusho if he'd beaten them all, as I doubt his schedule would have changed.  Now, I'll perhaps agree that he's not "mildly competent" and likely the first eleven days will be the best he'll ever do, but it shows that it's not completely trivial to beat them even if you can beat everyone in the joi.

[Yarimotsu 522]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

Ah, I fondly remember all the "Next Yokozuna Takakeisho" topics.

Although takakeisho making yokozuna would a wild outlier in terms of height, which clearly matters in sumo. kotonowaka making ozeki seems like much less of a farfetched statement to me.

[Kintamayama 44,350]

This thread will be interesting to revisit after the basho. Some decisive observations, including mine, are in for major scrutiny. To sum. we have four losses by day 5, mushroom munchers, surefire promotion, and it's never happened before.. We'll be back.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

If we're taking bets, I'll say he drops 3 by the first week and ends with 9-6.

[Godango 956]

I reckon double digits to start talk of a run proper. 

[Kintamayama 44,350]

13-2 yusho. Munch munch.

[RabidJohn 1,663]

4 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Munch munch.

Is that you getting an early start on your hat?

[Fashiritētā 169]

13-2 , only losses will be Kirishima and Wakamotoharu.

Win Yusho and Ozeki promotion.

I own several hats and a crow-pie will be standing by

[Kintamayama 44,350]

21 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Is that you getting an early start on your hat?

I still haven't started on my earlier one. 

[Kishinoyama 582]

I think he gets 10 or 11 wins so we can carry on the Ozeki speculation to Kyushu.  

[Wakawakawaka 136]

5 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

I think he gets 10 or 11 wins so we can carry on the Ozeki speculation to Kyushu.  

That is a good approach, but I think you are off a bit on the #. 10 or 11 in September means he'd need 11 or 12 in November. That being said, I say he gets 8 that way exactly nothing changes.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,245]

He should ask dejima for advice

[Churaumi 728]

He hasn't had double-digits since March last year. If he gets double-digits again, I'll be on the ozeki watch. He's been a reliable kk since then but hasn't seemed up to his potential. I hope he's over whatever has been holding him back from being a reliable double-digit kk wrestler and back on track.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

On 05/08/2023 at 13:00, Gurowake said:

  Now, I'll perhaps agree that he's not "mildly competent" and likely the first eleven days will be the best he'll ever do, 

if we're doing this, at least give him credit for the 17-1 (18-1) run... (and who was the one loss?)

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

On 06/08/2023 at 04:47, Reonito said:

Ah, I fondly remember all the "Next Yokozuna Takakeisho" topics.

Takakeisho as Yokozuna, while always far from a sure thing, was hardly far-fetched. Just a few basho ago he was on a tsunatori run. Injuries, more than ability, kept him reaching the pinnacle. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Kaninoyama

[Benevolance 2,478]

Takakeisho had a yusho-->jun-yusho in his ozeki run and so when he followed that up with the jun-yusho --> yusho in 2020, I figured as a Japanese rikishi that'd be enough to get the rope. And then in 2022-2023 he had 2 jun-yusho and a yusho over four tournaments with double-digit wins in all; I figured he'd get the rope for sure. But obviously he didn't. 

The problem seems to be that every time he competes, he ends up injured and effectively misses the next tournament as a result. It's probably just as well, though. He's certainly done alright in spite of the injuries so I'm always surprised when people scoff at his yokozuna chances. 

Edit: By 'competes', I mean that every time he gets healthy enough to actually challenge for the cup, and not those tournaments where he's obviously still injured, and simply trying to scrape together the wins to maintain his rank. 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Benevolance

[Ripe 70]

4 hours ago, Benevolance said:

Takakeisho had a yusho-->jun-yusho in his ozeki run and so when he followed that up with the jun-yusho --> yusho in 2020, I figured as a Japanese rikishi that'd be enough to get the rope. And then in 2022-2023 he had 2 jun-yusho and a yusho over four tournaments with double-digit wins in all; I figured he'd get the rope for sure. But obviously he didn't. 

The problem seems to be that every time he competes, he ends up injured and effectively misses the next tournament as a result. It's probably just as well, though. He's certainly done alright in spite of the injuries so I'm always surprised when people scoff at his yokozuna chances. 

Edit: By 'competes', I mean that every time he gets healthy enough to actually challenge for the cup, and not those tournaments where he's obviously still injured, and simply trying to scrape together the wins to maintain his rank. 

The fact that he wasn't promoted after going 12-3 D followed by 12-3 Y would suggest that we went back to requiring Y-Y combo or a rather spectacular series of basho. With spectacular series meaning at least 70 wins over 6 basho or 27/28 over 2 basho with at least one Yusho.

And due to his injuries, Takakeisho's chances of meeting those requirements are rather slim...

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Ripe said:

The fact that he wasn't promoted after going 12-3 D followed by 12-3 Y would suggest that we went back to requiring Y-Y combo or a rather spectacular series of basho. With spectacular series meaning at least 70 wins over 6 basho or 27/28 over 2 basho with at least one Yusho.

And due to his injuries, Takakeisho's chances of meeting those requirements are rather slim...

I think another key factor is the win total over the two basho. Obviously with Y-Y they'd probably have to promote even if the totals are low (I don't know what they'd do with <12 wins, and hopefully we'll never have to find out). But without that, it seems like the de facto threshold is 26 (with a yusho) since the standards got tightened up post-Futahaguro. For a while, only Y-Y would do. None of the 3 most recent promotions had that, but they had 14-1 D 14-1 Y (Kakuryu), 12-3 J 14-1 Y (Kisenosato), 12-3 Y 14-1 J (Terunofuji). 12-12 wasn't going to cut it without Y-Y.

[Gurowake 3,915]

14 hours ago, Reonito said:

But without that, it seems like the de facto threshold is 26 (with a yusho) since the standards got tightened up post-Futahaguro.

I hope you would agree that 11-15 (in either order) is not going to get promoted, so the idea of 26 wins is probably not a good benchmark.  Also, Kisenosato would have been promoted with any Yusho at all at that point - he'd already gone 13-13-12 recently, had gotten 13 wins multiple times before that, and had the most wins in a calendar year despite not winning any Yusho.  The only thing stopping him from being promoted was the lack of Yusho.  If he had gone 9-12Y it probably wouldn't have happened, but it would have happened with even 12-12, so much like with the Ozeki win requirement, I don't think putting an exact number on what's required is really a good approximation of how the decision is made.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I hope you would agree that 11-15 (in either order) is not going to get promoted, so the idea of 26 wins is probably not a good benchmark.  Also, Kisenosato would have been promoted with any Yusho at all at that point - he'd already gone 13-13-12 recently, had gotten 13 wins multiple times before that, and had the most wins in a calendar year despite not winning any Yusho.  The only thing stopping him from being promoted was the lack of Yusho.  If he had gone 9-12Y it probably wouldn't have happened, but it would have happened with even 12-12, so much like with the Ozeki win requirement, I don't think putting an exact number on what's required is really a good approximation of how the decision is made.

Yeah, "seems like the de facto standard" was not meant to convey that it's necessary or sufficient, just that you'd better have one heck of a case with fewer wins. I think they said at the time Kise would be promoted even before his final bout. And obviously nobody is getting promoted even with 26+ unless both results qualify as "yusho equivalents", however that's interpreted.