Newer Ozeki Kotonowaka?

[Seiyashi 4,071]

30 minutes ago, Old Shatterhand is dead said:

4 consecutive basho in komusubi is nothing else but bad banzuke luck. 

Eh, considering two of those basho were final-day KKs, I wouldn't say it was purely bad luck. He even had a chance to go double digits, and screwed that up by losing his last three in a row.

It's true that in times with a more stable top echelon, there is enough sekiwake churn that he would normally have been promoted to sekiwake by now, but I don't think you could honestly say his sumo was sekiwake level yet. He's nowhere near reliable enough, and his 11-4 this basho looks more like the exception than the norm.

Edited August 3, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 3,724]

I don't think it's a sane proposition to try for a "consecutive basho" string at Komusubi.  I could imagine a sekitori sitting at Sekiwake for ~years, never going below seven wins but never going 33/3.  As @Old Shatterhand is dead says above, the K rank depends too  much on other rikishi's performances (bad or good).  It's like dancing on top of a fence.

[Reonito 1,335]

4 hours ago, Old Shatterhand is dead said:

4 consecutive basho in komusubi is nothing else but bad banzuke luck. 

My point is that there have been exactly zero ozeki promotions since 1958 right after someone's debut at sekiwake.

[Old Shatterhand is dead 29]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Eh, considering two of those basho were final-day KKs, I wouldn't say it was purely bad luck. He even had a chance to go double digits, and screwed that up by losing his last three in a row.

It's true that in times with a more stable top echelon, there is enough sekiwake churn that he would normally have been promoted to sekiwake by now, but I don't think you could honestly say his sumo was sekiwake level yet. He's nowhere near reliable enough, and his 11-4 this basho looks more like the exception than the norm.

and yet it is a bad banzuke luck. what he would deserve and what he could get are two different things. In lucky circumstances even with those last day kachi koshis could have been resulted a sekiwake promotion for him.

So basically I agree with you he is not on sekiwake level yet but in lucky circumstances he could have been promoted.

[Gurowake 3,915]

Just now, Reonito said:

My point is that there have been exactly zero ozeki promotions since 1958 right after someone's debut at sekiwake.

So?  https://xkcd.com/1122/

[Reonito 1,335]

6 minutes ago, Old Shatterhand is dead said:

and yet it is a bad banzuke luck. what he would deserve and what he could get are two different things. In lucky circumstances even with those last day kachi koshis could have been resulted a sekiwake promotion for him.

So basically I agree with you he is not on sekiwake level yet but in lucky circumstances he could have been promoted.

Since 2012, it's exactly 50:50 whether a KK at komusubi gets you up to sekiwake or not. The coin coming up tails 3 times in a row is a bit unlucky.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

Half of the opinions on this thread should be transferred from Newer Ozeki Kotonowaka to Never Ozeki Kotonowaka.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

37 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Half of the opinions on this thread should be transferred from Newer Ozeki Kotonowaka to Never Ozeki Kotonowaka.

This thread is full of extremes; the actual truth is somewhere in between, as usual.

No, I don't expect the birth of Kotozakura after Aki; and yes, Kotonowaka is the most likely Ozeki candidate at the moment with a solid 11-4 start to his run. 

[junsan 170]

Nah, he's not ready.

[Ripe 70]

18 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

that's 32 wins with a year of Kachi-Koshi's to his name. Might not be as dominant as Hoshoryu's run, but I can see how it'll happen. Plus Shodai was 100% deserving. 2 Jun-Yusho's right before the run began. 

Those two Jun-Yusho's don't really count. Especially first one from M10. And second from M4... well, if that basho wasn't won by Tokushoryu from M17 it would look a lot better. So, no... looking at it from this point in time, Shodai was most certainly prematurely promoted with only 32 wins.

[Akinomaki 39,776]

Another thing in favour of a quick promotion for Kotonowaka is that ozeki promotion is planned for him since early school days, similar to Waka-Taka when they started. The thread name should of course be changed, not posts transferred: there never will be a new ozeki Kotonowaka, his career agenda says Kotozakura on ozeki promotion.

And with the whole country expecting it and waiting for it, an easy promotion is not unlikely, and dad seems to be inclined to favour his son enough to start the process as soon as possible.

Plus we now have again three Mongolians among four Y/O, for a Japanese rikishi, promotion with 32/3 can happen. At least, the Mongolians get promoted with 33 wins, the Europeans all had 35 or more. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&shusshin=202&sum_wins=32&show_sum=on&showshusshin=on&form4_rank=o&form4_debutr=on

[Kintamayama 44,350]

Would a 14-1 yusho do it? 13-2? I'm not entirely sure we can lean on precedents here. Gut feeling. I say a 13-2 yusho and he gets promoted regardless. I do fear, however, he will be hovering around the 9-10 win mark, but one can hope.

He is also 6-4 against the other two wannabes, so does that mean he's better than them and that he is the leading contender to be our next Ozeki, not counting Shoudai, of course?

Edited August 4, 2023 by Kintamayama

[Fashiritētā 169]

I agree with the 13-2 for promotion, Teru and Taka probably wont make it to day 15 , thus making it easier for Kotonowaka to get the number of wins for a favorable promotion.

I believe he beat Daiesho and Hoshoryu last Basho.

It will be fun to watch regardless, Hakkeyoi 

[Reonito 1,335]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Another thing in favour of a quick promotion for Kotonowaka is that ozeki promotion is planned for him since early school days, similar to Waka-Taka when they started.

Taka had two yusho by the time he was promoted, and still wasn't promoted after 8-14Y-10; they waited until he got 11 in the next one. Waka wasn't promoted with 34 (!) which again included a yusho (10-14Y-10), though the first one was at M3. He then got a 13-2D which did it.

[Kintamayama 44,350]

10 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Taka had two yusho by the time he was promoted, and still wasn't promoted after 8-14Y-10; they waited until he got 11 in the next one. Waka wasn't promoted with 34 (!) which again included a yusho (10-14Y-10), though the first one was at M3. He then got a 13-2D which did it.

Not sure if it's backed up by facts, but the general impression is that if the last of the three is substantial (not 10 wins like the Hanada bothers), it helps and kind of makes us forget the 8 in the first one..

[junsan 170]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Would a 14-1 yusho do it? 13-2? I'm not entirely sure we can lean on precedents here. Gut feeling. I say a 13-2 yusho and he gets promoted regardless. I do fear, however, he will be hovering around the 9-10 win mark, but one can hope.

Why hope if he's not ready? Do we really need another often-kadoban Ozeki? I'd wait for him to get a bit better first.

[Akinomaki 39,776]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Taka had two yusho by the time he was promoted, and still wasn't promoted after 8-14Y-10; they waited until he got 11 in the next one. Waka wasn't promoted with 34 (!) which again included a yusho (10-14Y-10), though the first one was at M3. He then got a 13-2D which did it.

Their father was hard on his kids and didn't favour them at all, plus he had no say in the promotion - and the times are very different now, there were no Mongolians back then and only the first ever non-Japanese at yokozuna

[Reonito 1,335]

8 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Their father was hard on his kids and didn't favour them at all, plus he had no say in the promotion - and the times are very different now, there were no Mongolians back then and only the first ever non-Japanese at yokozuna

My guess is that they'll want the promotion case to be substantial for someone this new to the upper ranks; if the kid can put up the numbers, we'll find out if that's right. I guess Asanoyama would be the best counterexample.

[Kashunowaka 300]

I am in the "Kotonowaka will eventually make ozeki" camp, for sure. If he has a breakout basho with a yusho in September, he'll get the nod if it's 13-2 or better. Very unlikely but it's happened before, see e.g. Chiyotaikai.

[Sue 482]

Being hailed as the "next Ozeki" didn't work out so well for Shodai, though he eventually got there. I wouldn't curse Kotonowaka with the moniker.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Not sure if it's backed up by facts, but the general impression is that if the last of the three is substantial (not 10 wins like the Hanada bothers), it helps and kind of makes us forget the 8 in the first one..

Earlier, I suggested that the third basho being the best of the run (9-10-13 rather than 10-12-10, for example) should facilitate the promotion, but my suggestion was shot down. 

[Akinomaki 39,776]

I'm sure he won't get it, but I'm also sure a 13-2 yusho would get him the promotion

[ryafuji 807]

Still have a hard time believing they would promote him in his sekiwake debut. There might be some recommending that he wait one more tournament to make sure he is ready. 

[Benihana 1,901]

He had 11 wins last basho instead of his standard 8 or 9, because he was matched against M14-M16. Whoever thinks he can pull off a 13-2 or even a 14-1 at this point of his career, should stop munching on magic mushrooms.

[Fashiritētā 169]

7 minutes ago, Benihana said:

He had 11 wins last basho instead of his standard 8 or 9, because he was matched against M14-M16. Whoever thinks he can pull off a 13-2 or even a 14-1 at this point of his career, should stop munching on magic mushrooms.

Those M14-16 guys finished with good records, and one was a debutante that upset a few people.