GTB invite- Aki 2023 - 202 entries - RESULTS!!

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

53 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

M5   Shonannoumi (M14w 10-5)

M9   Ryuden (M15e 10-5)

Hm...

[Asashosakari 19,500]

19 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Hm...

Shrug. Somebody has to be M5w and I couldn't justify Onosho or Midorifuji there. (Wouldn't surprise me if it actually is Midorifuji though.)

My first draft looked completely different but had a similar gap anyway, just between Hakuoho+Ryuden and Endo instead. I ended up going for a version that had the least amount of rikishi getting outsized promotions while setting up MK demotions that I still felt comfortable with, which is my reading of what they've been doing the last few years. Could be entirely wrong, but this is a banzuke where, in all likelihood, most players will be wrong.

 

 

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

Just now, Asashosakari said:

Shrug. Somebody has to be M5w and I couldn't justify Onosho or Midorifuji there. (Wouldn't surprise me if it actually is Midorifuji though.)

My first draft looked completely different but had a similar gap anyway, just between Hakuoho+Ryuden and Endo instead. I ended up going for a version that had the least amount of rikishi getting outsized promotions while setting up MK demotions that I still felt comfortable with, which is my reading of what they've been doing the last few years. Could be entirely wrong, but this is a banzuke where, in all likelihood, most players will be wrong.

 

 

Actually, I have nothing against Shonannoumi being that high, but Ryuden could go way higher...

[Asashosakari 19,500]

9 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Actually, I have nothing against Shonannoumi being that high, but Ryuden could go way higher...

I'm sure many entrants agree.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I agreed with those in principle who had Meisei at M1w, and I even wanted Asanoyama at M2e, but when I plugged in my recent history results (GTB strategy thread) it was pretty compelling to slot Abi in at M1w and move Asanoyama to M2w.

I'm really curious to see how it will shake out between Hokuseiho / Kinbozan and Endo. I wanted to move Endo ahead and assume the veteran bias would play in his favor, but ultimately I stuck Hokuseiho at M10w and Kinbozan at M11e. Both banzukes I've seen posted above endorse the veteran bias theory and over-demote one of the other guys as a result.

I have the Shonannoumi / Ryuden gap at M6w / M9e which is concerning but ... Shonannoumi feels destined to go far in this banzuke. Also I'm holding out hope that Gonoyama gets the nod vs Takanosho, which means a 2.5 slot Gonoyama / Shonannoumi gap and a full M4e-M9e gap between Gonoyama and Ryuden. Come to think of it, I evenly spaced the 10-5 guys 2.5 slots apart at M4e-M6w-M9e-M11w ... that was unintentional.

[Wamahada 57]

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Hm...

I also went with

Shonnanoumi M5W and 

Ryuden M8W 

although they were only half a rank different last basho with the same score of 10-5.

I wonder how the banzuke committee has dealt with it.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Wamahada

[Wamahada 57]

I am a lousy GTB player, however, here is my attempt:

YE: Terunofuji Y1e (1-3-11)

OE: Kirishima O1w (6-7-2)

OW: Takakeisho O1e (0-0-15)

OW2: Hoshoryu S1e (12-3)

SE: Daieisho S1w (9-6)

SW: Wakamotoharu S2w (9-6)

SE2: Kotonowaka K1e (11-4)

KE: Nishikigi M1e (10-5)

KW: Tobizaru M1w (9-6)

ME1: Hokutofuji M9w (12-3)

MW1: Meisei M3w (8-7)

ME2: Asanoyama M4e (8-4-3)

MW2: Abi K1w (6-9)

ME3: Tamawashi M7w (8-7)

MW3: Shodai M2e (6-9)

ME4: Gonoyama M13e (10-5)

MW4: Ura M4w (7-8)

ME5: Takanosho M9e (8-7)

MW5: Shonannoumi M14w (10-5)

ME6: Kotoeko M11e (8-7)

MW6: Onosho M5w (6-9)

ME7: Takayasu M7e (7-8)

MW7: Oho M6w (6-9)

ME8: Hakuoho M17w (11-4)

MW8: Ryuden M15e (10-5)

ME9: Hiradoumi M5e (5-10)

MW9: Midorifuji M3e (4-11)

ME10: Hokuseiho M6e (5-10)

MW10: Kinbozan M10e (7-8)

ME11: Endo M16e (10-5)

MW11: Mitakeumi M2w (3-12)

ME12: Takarafuji M15w (9-6)

MW12: Atamifuji J1w (11-4)

ME13: Sadanoumi M8e (5-10)

MW13: Nishikifuji M8w (5-10)

ME14: Myogiryu M10w (6-9)

MW14: Kotoshoho M13w (7-8)

ME15: Aoiyama M17e (9-6)

MW15: Chiyoshoma M12e (6-9)

ME16: Tsurugisho M11w (5-10)

MW16: Kagayaki J1e (9-6)

ME17: Daishoho M14e (6-9)

[Wakawakawaka 157]

10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Onosho (M5w 6-9)           M6   
                           M11  Hokuseiho (M6e 5-10)
 

Onosho - M5w with 6 wins drops 0.5 ranks. Hokuseiho right behind at M6e with 5 wins, drops 5.5 ranks. That doesn't seem fair, but not sure there is a way of avoiding Hokuseiho at M11. Does the banzuke committee care about this kind of fairness, how much, and how will that effect the placement of other demotees like Midorifuji and Mitakeumi? 

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

7 hours ago, Wamahada said:

MW9: Midorifuji M3e (4-11)

MW11: Mitakeumi M2w (3-12)

I would expect both of them getting joi parachutes and landing higher. Where exactly? Well, the answer to this question will decide who wins this game. 

[Gurowake 4,088]

46 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Does the banzuke committee care about this kind of fairness

They generally want to have some sort of consistency between rikishi with the same record that are near in rank to each other, but that desire can only go so far, especially in the current banzuke situation.  Often there's a pull between putting two adjacent rikishi with the same record close to each other and wanting to put a bunch of people between them because the higher ranked rikishi is the only one that can go in that spot, and there's plenty of other rikishi that should be ahead of both of them but simply can't be.  This often leads to them splitting the difference, which is one of the most difficult things to try to guess about, and why the general consensus is that this banzuke will be very difficult for anyone to get right.

There's less of a desire to have things be consistent between those with different records.

[Gurowake 4,088]

I have Hakuoho ahead of Ryuden for the same reason Hokuseiho was ahead of Oho and Tsurugisho was ahead of Chiyoshoma on the previous banzuke.  What that reason is is left as an exercise for the reader.

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

48 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Onosho - M5w with 6 wins drops 0.5 ranks. Hokuseiho right behind at M6e with 5 wins, drops 5.5 ranks. That doesn't seem fair, but not sure there is a way of avoiding Hokuseiho at M11. Does the banzuke committee care about this kind of fairness, how much, and how will that effect the placement of other demotees like Midorifuji and Mitakeumi? 

There is no way everybody gets treated exactly the same, it would be mathematically impossible. We can only hope that rikishi with similar ranks and records would be treated more or less equally, but there are limitations to that as well; in this particular case, Onosho benefits from vacuum in M4-M6 area that needs to be filled somehow, but Hokuseiho is too low to board this gravy train - and ends up were he would normally belong.

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I have Hakuoho ahead of Ryuden for the same reason Hokuseiho was ahead of Oho and Tsurugisho was ahead of Chiyoshoma on the previous banzuke.  What that reason is is left as an exercise for the reader.

Miyagino bonus?  Wouldn't work for Tsurugisho though.

[Wakawakawaka 157]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I would expect both of them getting joi parachutes and landing higher. Where exactly? Well, the answer to this question will decide who wins this game. 

A few examples of splitting hair decisions from the past decade as pertaining to Mitakeumi and Midorifuji's current stakes.

Takayasu (3-3-9): M2e > M7e
Oho (11-4): M16w > M6w

Aoiyama (3-5-7): M2w > M11e
Asanoyama (10-5): M16e > M11w

Okinoumi (3-12): M2e > M9w
Tokushoryu (8-7): M12e > M9e

Kaisei (3-12): M2e > M9e
Ishiura (10-5): M15e > M9w
___________________________
Ura (4-11): M3e > M7w
Onosho (9-6): M11e > M8e
Oho (10-5): M13w > M8w

Nishikigi (4-11): M3e > M9e
Tomokaze (9-6): M13e > M9w

Ikioi (4-11): M3e > M7w
Chiyonokuni (8-7): M11e > M7e

Aoiyama (4-11): M3w > M8e
Kotoeko (8-7): M11w > M8w

Okinoumi (4-11): M3e > M8w
Kagayaki (4-11): M11e > M9e

Osunaarashi (4-4-7): M3w > M8w
Yoshikaze (10-5): M14e > M8e

[Suwihuto 127]

10 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I agreed with those in principle who had Meisei at M1w, and I even wanted Asanoyama at M2e, but when I plugged in my recent history results (GTB strategy thread) it was pretty compelling to slot Abi in at M1w and move Asanoyama to M2w.

I'm really curious to see how it will shake out between Hokuseiho / Kinbozan and Endo. I wanted to move Endo ahead and assume the veteran bias would play in his favor, but ultimately I stuck Hokuseiho at M10w and Kinbozan at M11e. Both banzukes I've seen posted above endorse the veteran bias theory and over-demote one of the other guys as a result.

I have the Shonannoumi / Ryuden gap at M6w / M9e which is concerning but ... Shonannoumi feels destined to go far in this banzuke. Also I'm holding out hope that Gonoyama gets the nod vs Takanosho, which means a 2.5 slot Gonoyama / Shonannoumi gap and a full M4e-M9e gap between Gonoyama and Ryuden. Come to think of it, I evenly spaced the 10-5 guys 2.5 slots apart at M4e-M6w-M9e-M11w ... that was unintentional.

Not entirely the same as me from what you've said here (I have Gonoyama at M5e for example), but we must be pretty close in general - I've got the same outcome for Endo. This is likely to be a bad sign for your guess, judging by my usual GTB results.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

1 hour ago, Suwihuto said:

Not entirely the same as me from what you've said here (I have Gonoyama at M5e for example), but we must be pretty close in general - I've got the same outcome for Endo. This is likely to be a bad sign for your guess, judging by my usual GTB results.

I had a 2nd place finish to someone who had just gone 0-15 on the previous GTB so I feel good about this. Let's gooooooooo!

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

They generally want to have some sort of consistency between rikishi with the same record that are near in rank to each other, but that desire can only go so far, especially in the current banzuke situation.  Often there's a pull between putting two adjacent rikishi with the same record close to each other and wanting to put a bunch of people between them because the higher ranked rikishi is the only one that can go in that spot, and there's plenty of other rikishi that should be ahead of both of them but simply can't be.  This often leads to them splitting the difference, which is one of the most difficult things to try to guess about, and why the general consensus is that this banzuke will be very difficult for anyone to get right.

There's less of a desire to have things be consistent between those with different records.

This reminds me of the Endo 14-1 banzuke where 9-6 meant WILDLY different things depending on where you earned 9-6 (Homasho obviously crushed the banzuke luck here, with Asahisho a not-very-close 2nd .... Asahisho would fail to capture the same 9-6 luck for the remainder of his Juryo career).

[Sumo Spiffy 569]

When discussing any of this, in terms of precedent, it's worth bearing in mind that the committee has decidedly taken a turn in their approach from the start of this year on. There's only been a few banzukes this year, so there's hardly a scientific sample; however, some of the changes have been consistent enough that looking much further back for ideas to lean on is liable to lead one astray.

[Tigerboy1966 1,451]

14 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

it was pretty compelling to slot Abi in at M1w

That's a relief; I was starting to think I was the only one...

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

When discussing any of this, in terms of precedent, it's worth bearing in mind that the committee has decidedly taken a turn in their approach from the start of this year on. There's only been a few banzukes this year, so there's hardly a scientific sample; however, some of the changes have been consistent enough that looking much further back for ideas to lean on is liable to lead one astray.

I considered this (what I think you are referring to) when I declined to move Nishikifuji ahead of Myogiryu.

[Koorifuu 1,003]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I have Hakuoho ahead of Ryuden for the same reason Hokuseiho was ahead of Oho and Tsurugisho was ahead of Chiyoshoma on the previous banzuke.  What that reason is is left as an exercise for the reader.

I haven't scored a GTB KK in almost 11 years and even I feel like I got it immediately as soon as I read that post. Part of me hopes I'm wrong so there's more mystery. 

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

13 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

I haven't scored a GTB KK in almost 11 years

This seems statistically improbable. 

[Koorifuu 1,003]

44 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This seems statistically improbable. 

... I've only entered 5ish times since then, but rest assured my natural ineptitude & longstanding lack of focus on banzuke-making matters would've ensured that stat remained.

[#1HENKAFAN 40]

I copy pasted the banzuke helper page from my phone and I took the graph with me somehow (thank you Chiyotasuke for the qol updates)

Y1e	Terunofuji	1-3-11	─	Y1
				Y2
O1w	Kirishima	6-7-2	+0.5	O1	O1e	Takakeisho	0-0-15	-0.5
				O2	S1e	Hoshoryu	12-3 YK	↑
				O3
S1w	Daieisho	9-6	+0.5	S1	S2w	Wakamotoharu	9-6	+1
K1e	Kotonowaka	11-4 K	↑	S2
				S3
M1e	Nishikigi	10-5 S	↑	K1	M1w	Tobizaru	9-6	↑
				K2
				K3
M9w	Hokutofuji	12-3 DK	+8.5	M1	M3w	Meisei	8-7	+2
K1w	Abi	6-9	↓	M2	M4e	Asanoyama	8-4-3	+1.5
M2e	Shodai	6-9	-1	M3	M7w	Tamawashi	8-7	+4
M13e	Gonoyama	10-5 K	+9	M4	M4w	Ura	7-8	─
M9e	Takanosho	8-7	+4	M5	M14w	Shonannoumi	10-5 K	+9
M5w	Onosho	6-9	-0.5	M6	M15e	Ryuden	10-5	+8.5
M7e	Takayasu	7-8	─	M7	M3e	Midorifuji	4-11	-4.5
M6w	Oho	6-9	-1.5	M8	M2w	Mitakeumi	3-12	-6
M5e	Hiradoumi	5-10	-4	M9	M11e	Kotoeko	8-7	+1.5
M17w	Hakuoho	11-4 GK	+7.5	M10	M6e	Hokuseiho	5-10	-4.5
M16e	Endo	10-5	+5	M11	M10e	Kinbozan	7-8	-1.5
M15w	Takarafuji	9-6	+3.5	M12	M8e	Sadanoumi	5-10	-4.5
M10w	Myogiryu	6-9	-2.5	M13	M8w	Nishikifuji	5-10	-5
M17e	Aoiyama	9-6	+3	M14	M13w	Kotoshoho	7-8	-1
M12e	Chiyoshoma	6-9	-3	M15	J1w	Atamifuji	11-4 Y	↑
M11w	Tsurugisho	5-10	-4.5	M16	M14e	Daishoho	6-9	-2.5
J1e	Kagayaki	9-6	↑	M17

Edited August 22, 2023 by #1HENKAFAN

[Tigerboy1966 1,451]

53 here. Not looking good.