Kyushu 2023 discussion (results)

[nagora 88]

36 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Atamifuji proving that last basho was no fluke. 

He has had a very easy "draw" until yesterday.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=12664&b=202311

Compared to, for example, Tobizaru's first week where his lowest opponent was M2:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=12203&b=202311

I know that's the way it works but it does sometimes seem to give promising middle-rankers a bit of a leg up in the first week.

[Bunbukuchagama 679]

Just now, nagora said:

He has had a very easy "draw" until yesterday.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=12664&b=202311

Compared to, for example, Tobizaru's first week where his lowest opponent was M2:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=12203&b=202311

I know that's the way it works but it does sometimes seem to give promising middle-rankers a bit of a leg up in the first week.

Tobizaru is in the joi, what did you expect?

 

[Jakusotsu 5,757]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

This basho the day 14 torikumi get announced after the last bout, like several times before and usually only for day 15.

When was the last time it happened for day 14? Did it ever?

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

Well this is getting a bit odd. Still no torikumi. Are they still arguing or did someone just forget to push a button?

[Asashosakari 18,670]

28 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

When was the last time it happened for day 14? Did it ever?

March 2020 for one thing, not fully sure though if that was the most recent case.

[Hankegami 412]

Quoting everyone would be burdensome, but let's talk about Atamifuji. He surely had "easy" basho this Aki and now in Kyushu, but he was M15w and M8w respectively. He was expected to have mostly same-rank match-ups. However, he hit 11-4D in Aki despite being heavily beaten by the joy in the last days, and now he sits at 11-2 at M8w. Same result (with room for improvement) while having to deal with higher-ranked opponents of middle Maegashira rank. There's little to argue about. Atamifuji is clearly under-ranked in lower Makuuchi. Personally, I think he can be safely estimated to be at least a joy level rikishi as per today. He defeated Takayasu (a former Ozeki), Abi (a former Sekiwake) and Tobizaru (a Komusubi back then) in Aki, and now he did not only gave seconds to Takayasu but also upset Hoshoryu. Back in Aki he clearly hit a ceiling against san'yaku (Daieisho, Takakeisho, even Asanoyama), but Atamin is 21 and can grow from basho to basho. It's too early to call him the next big thing (I'd wait for his next two bouts at least), but I think there should be consensus that he should belong at least to the joy. Where he will likely be placed in Hatsu.

Talking about Day 13 in general, it has been a interesting day. Atamifuji and Kirishima just escaped with their 11-2 booty, leaving a gap between them and a bunch of 9-4 guys. This latter group is still on the yusho rank though, and we should wait for Day 14 to see whether at least one of the front-runners will kick them out of contention by going 12-2 tomorrow.

Before taking about the big boys, let's spend a few words for One-Legged Pete Tsurugisho. The most noble Sir Gisho apparently discovered that he can lift a lot of people à la Tochinoshin in the last few days. Today he used his newly discovered asset to utchari out a really-not-featherweight Nishikigi. Now he's 8-5 and KK with just one fully functioning leg. I didn't expect that from watching his first matches in this tournament.

Going up to san'yaku directly, Abi is on a new fire. He made short work of Shonannoumi and now sits at 5-7. He's clearly trying to stave off MK and demotion, but he was possibly be looking also to take over Wakamotoharu's Sekiwake spot. The latter lost again today and will likely leave san'yaku altogether after four basho at the rank. Respect. However, this plan also entails that Kotonowaka would be promoted to Ozeki, leaving therefore Daieisho alone at the rank. Unfortunately for Abi, Four Tits was beaten on a belt fight by Ryuden today and said definitively farewell to an immediate promotion (31 in 3 basho at best). Hence, Daieisho and Kotonowaka are going to be the two Sekiwake for Hatsu, leaving the well-faring upper Maegashira bunch (Takayasu, Midorifuji, Atamifuji) waiting for Abi to fail, otherwise they will have to fight for Hokutofuji's spot alone. I wonder whether the Committee will pair Abi and Atamifuji to give the latter a shot to a Komusubi spot from M8w (either before or after an Atamifuji vs. Kirishima showdown for the Yusho).

Now, the Ozeki. Kirishima dealt with Daieisho as usual since his Haru Yusho, and now has a fat chance to win Kyushu and start a Yokozuna run for Hatsu. Takakeisho more modestly splatted Hoshoryu on the clay to keep his chances for a jun-yusho somewhat alive (although he needs one between Kirby and Atamin to win both their last matches). By the way, Hoshoryu melted down really bad in the last few days. He went 2-4 since Day 8. He shouldn't have hanged out with Mitakeumi, he took up his bad habits.

ALMOST EDIT: Pairings for Day 14 just out. Musubi no ichiban will feature Atamifuji vs. Kirishima. I'd liked better if they had it left for senshuraku but whatever. This also means that the 4 losses bunch will be definitely out of Yusho contention after tomorrow. A quick look to the other matches doesn't show any apparent exchange bout. Abi is paired against Tobizaru, who at M3w has little chance to get back to Komosubi with a best result put at 8-7. In general, it seems like a bunch of pairings favoring a mirror record. A bit lame but no drama.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Hankegami

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Kitanowaka v Ōshōma was just a match of eternal sadness. The winner didn't even so much win as the loser lost. 

Finally some forward moving sumo from Tōhakuryū. 

With the results, it's really only down to Kirishima and Atamifuji. Everyone else is eliminated. Best case scenario is Kirishima wins tomorrow, so maximum tension is preserved down to Kirishima's bout on Sunday. If Atamifuji wins tomorrow and on Sunday, the last few bouts will be dead rubbers. 

[Asashosakari 18,670]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

With the results, it's really only down to Kirishima and Atamifuji. Everyone else is eliminated. Best case scenario is Kirishima wins tomorrow, so maximum tension is preserved down to Kirishima's bout on Sunday. If Atamifuji wins tomorrow and on Sunday, the last few bouts will be dead rubbers. 

You're assuming they wouldn't put Atamifuji on late? Kirishima-Hoshoryu and Atamifuji-Takakeisho are possible...

On a related note: With the Day 14 schedule there goes that rare opportunity for a basho where all sanyaku rikishi who started the tournament actually have all possible matches against each other.

[lackmaker 428]

32 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

If Atamifuji wins tomorrow and on Sunday, the last few bouts will be dead rubbers. 

Same happens if Atamifuji loses both days.

[Hakuryuho 334]

On 20/11/2023 at 14:27, Hakuryuho said:

Man I hope Kitaharima secures the zensho in Makushita for re-promotion to the salaried ranks;
if I'm not mistaken he's at 26 basho as a sekitori and thus needs 4 more to be elder stock eligible I think,
he's 37 so I don't know how many chances he'll get in the future to get back to Juryo/makunouchi.
Really hope he can do it!

My bad for the jinx, Kitaharima....

[dingo 1,133]

Looking forward to seeing Oonosato in makuuchi next year. Hopefully his stay will be longer than Hakuoho's. In fact, I'm looking forward to seeing both of them establishing a long lasting rivalry at the top of makuuchi.

Midorifuji with a second excellent henka this basho! Gotta say Ichiyamamoto was the perfect target for a quick shift -- the momentum was such that he didn't stop before he was down and out of the dohyo. 

I almost wrote off Tsurugishou when he got injured at the beginning of the basho, but what a fighting comeback! Not to forget the tsuri against Hokuseiho. 

Kudos to Atamifuji for handling everything Takayasu threw at him and coming out as the winner. I was convinced at least twice during the bout that this is it for Atamifuji but he weathered the pressure very well. His surprising mobility for such a big rikishi netted him the win today, shifting efficiently from Takayasu's throw attempt to a oshidashi victory. 

Shodai's back to his low energy mode and it's looking doubtful if he'll get even one more win from the remaining two days. 

Kotonowaka unfortunately lost at the tachiai, giving up a good grip to mawashi expert Ryuden and not getting much in return. The yusho hope is basically gone, and he has to win out if he wants to keep an ozeki run going. Disappointing, perhaps also some wobbliness from yesterday's loss still there? 

Oh look, the good old overextending Daieisho is back! No challenge at all to surging Kirishima. 

In the end the yusho looks to be between Kirishima and Atamifuji. What an achievement for the latter, being in yusho contention until the end for two basho in a row!

[Sakura 1,463]

3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

When was the last time it happened for day 14? Did it ever?

I remember it happening once in the time I've been watching sumo, which has been 7 years already. It was when there were a load of Maegashira candidates that could have been potential winners and they had to orchestrate it to find out who needed sanyaku opponents on Day 14. I don't remember which basho that was though.

[rhyen 1,801]

4 hours ago, Sakura said:

I remember it happening once in the time I've been watching sumo, which has been 7 years already. It was when there were a load of Maegashira candidates that could have been potential winners and they had to orchestrate it to find out who needed sanyaku opponents on Day 14. I don't remember which basho that was though.

2017 Aki basho?

[Benevolance 2,472]

If Takakeisho wins against Daieisho tonight (odds are in favour), I'm assuming that we're going to see Takakeisho vs Kirishima on senshuraku? Or is there a chance Takakeisho draws Atamifuji? 

[Gurowake 3,886]

16 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

If Takakeisho wins against Daieisho tonight (odds are in favour), I'm assuming that we're going to see Takakeisho vs Kirishima on senshuraku? Or is there a chance Takakeisho draws Atamifuji? 

My GKA pick is based on the idea that on senshuraku Takakeisho faces Atamifuji and Kirishima faces Hoshoryu.  I don't think it'll matter what the outcome of the leaders' match is either, as they'll both still be the only ones in contention regardless of outcome.  If they put Takakeisho against Kirishima, then they'd presumably put Kotonowaka against Atamifuji, which other people are guessing will be how it comes out.   I don't think the outcome of the other matches makes any difference either - I think they'll more likely care about rank more than who exactly has the most wins out of the potential people from sanyaku to put against Atamifuji.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Gurowake

[Hankegami 412]

15 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

If Takakeisho wins against Daieisho tonight (odds are in favour), I'm assuming that we're going to see Takakeisho vs Kirishima on senshuraku? Or is there a chance Takakeisho draws Atamifuji? 

Just now, Gurowake said:

My GKA pick is based on the idea that on senshuraku Takakeisho faces Atamifuji and Kirishima faces Hoshoryu.  I don't think it'll matter what the outcome of the leaders' match is either (or anyone else's for that matter), as they'll both still be the only ones in contention regardless of outcome.

I also have Takakeisho vs. Atamifuji and Kirishima vs. Hoshoryu on senshuraku. Kirishima must absolutely face one of the two Ozeki for his Yusho bid. Takakeisho has great chances to go 10-4 tomorrow and would constitute a great final obstacle for Kirishima, but it would leave Hoshoryu without a valid opponent since he already faced Atamifuji, Kotonowaka, and in general all the other successful members of the joy. The first alternative choice for him would be M10e Ryuden (currently 9-4 and with room for improvement), a bit too low. On the other hand, a repeat of Takakeisho vs. Atamifuji from Aki would constitute a chance for the latter to show that he has improved since last tournament. An eventual win could even open up talks for him to get a san'yaku spot in Hatsu. Kirishima vs. Hoshoryu certainly creates less hype in comparison, but despite his so-and-so second week Hoshoryu remains a strong Ozeki especially dangerous on the belt. Both represent some good match-ups.

[Benevolance 2,472]

Ah, I see where you're coming from. Also, I was thinking that Takakeisho might have a bit more give in the standings than he does, but looking at it now, he cannot possibly win. It's either Atamafuji or Kirishima with the yusho. The best he manages is the jun-yusho. 

Interestingly, had they not scheduled Kirishima vs Atamifuji, Takakeisho would have still had a shot. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Benevolance

[Hankegami 412]

33 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

Interestingly, had they not scheduled Kirishima vs Atamifuji, Takakeisho would have still had a shot. 

I believe they want to avoid another 11-4Y at all cost. One was enough.

[Asashosakari 18,670]

I mean, it makes no difference to the fate of the 4-loss guys at all whether the Kirishima-Atamifuji match was getting scheduled for Day 14 or for Day 15. Surely nobody here believes that they would have gone without doing it altogether?

[Asashosakari 18,670]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

My GKA pick is based on the idea that on senshuraku Takakeisho faces Atamifuji and Kirishima faces Hoshoryu.  I don't think it'll matter what the outcome of the leaders' match is either, as they'll both still be the only ones in contention regardless of outcome.

IMHO, Atamifuji-Takakeisho is only mandatory if he leads after tomorrow, as he'd then be in position to win the yusho outright and thus requires the hardest schedule possible. Having faced Hoshoryu and Kirishima, that means Takakeisho. An Atamifuji who's one win behind Kirishima doesn't necessarily require such testing as he'd have to go through another ozeki (via playoff) anyway.

[Yubinhaad 11,506]

On 23/11/2023 at 18:43, Yamanashi said:

The two targets this basho seem to be Sawaisamu (46 years old) and Higohikari (35).  Sawaisamu is from Shikihidebeya, the Island of Misfit Rikishi, and averages a couple of wins per basho against more hapless youngsters.  Higohikari hasn't won a bout in 2023, and his last half-dozen wins are mostly against Sawaisamu; he has trouble getting traction in the banzuke because most of his wins come against rikishi who retire soon afterwards, including the legendary Hattorizakura/Shonnanzakura).

Unfortunately things did not go well for Higohikari, who had a hard landing on the back of his head after being pushed off by Wakaikki in the opening bout of Day 13. Help arrived quickly, he was placed on a stretcher and was shortly afterwards taken by ambulance to a hospital for tests. Mihogaseki-oyakata (former Maegashira Tochisakae), one of the senior oyakata involved, reported that Higohikari was conscious and able to talk.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Yubinhaad

[Katooshu 3,088]

I think Rao, brother of diminutive Baraki, is retiring. Many camera flashes went off before his match vs Kanazawa, and he was greeted by several stablemates as he walked backstage. 

[Barutokai 62]

So 1-0-6 guy Sadanojo got a fusensho. Should be a very rare case that one "just has to show up" to stay on the banzuke.

Edit: yeah 2nd time

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&day=13-15&jk=on&kimarite=74&wins1=1&east1=on&onlyw1=on

Edited November 25, 2023 by Barutokai

[Asashosakari 18,670]

1 hour ago, Barutokai said:

So 1-0-6 guy Sadanojo got a fusensho. Should be a very rare case that one "just has to show up" to stay on the banzuke.

Edit: yeah 2nd time

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&day=13-15&jk=on&kimarite=74&wins1=1&east1=on&onlyw1=on

Quick heads-up: Only use "East side only" if you've entered identical parameters for Rikishi 1 and Rikishi 2. It made no difference to your query here because all cases actually happened with Rikishi 1 on the East side of their match, but that won't always be true. (Compare this with this.)

[Barutokai 62]

Soga in your second query got fusenpai 2 days in a row... oh yeah second time was when covid hit the stable.