Banzuke for Natsu 2023

Itakozakura Jk1 Soga
Nakaishi Jk2 Sawaisamu
Higonoryu Jk3 Sakurai
Minorufuji Jk4 Oyamazakura
Motokiyama Jk5 Chikureisen
Higohikari Jk6 Reonmaru
Daishoheki Jk7 Daibasho
Yumenofuji Jk8 Makotofuji
Masarufuji Jk9 Miyatani
Soseizan Jk10 Datenoumi
Datenomori Jk11 Fujiso
Kuwae Jk12 Kiyonoyama
Higonomaru Jk13 Keiga
Katsunishiki Jk14 Saito
Soma Jk15 Shimabukuro
Sachinoyama Jk16 Sogo
Takeuchi Jk17 Chiyorozan
Hoshi Jk18 Asasakurai
Kazeyuki Jk19 Fujihara
Satokaneko Jk20 Ryuji
Kotomunakata Jk21 Akenonami
Itoga Jk22 Haruyama
Shiroma Jk23 ---

(New shikona in red.)

Edited April 30, 2023 by Asashosakari

Reonito · April 30, 2023

It may seem petty, but it really upsets me that Shimanoumi isn't even in the lowest position he could have been in Juryo, after they already gave him a huge break by not booting him down to his rightful place in Makushita.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Reonito

Yubinhaad · April 30, 2023

Only two shikona changes on this banzuke, both coming with given name changes too. Tamanoi-beya's Wakaazuma is now Tokazan, the use of the "azuma" kanji at the start with the "To-" reading seems to be a growing theme there.

And in Shikihide-beya, Nihonmatsu is now Bakukoshin. The old shikona was derived from his hometown and school, I have no idea yet about the origin of the new one.

Jd54w Wakaazuma Koya (航矢) > Tokazan Kota (東華山　航汰, とうかざん　こうた)
Jd90w Nihonmatsu Yoshiki (善樹) > Bakukoshin Sensuke (爆虎神　千将, ばくこしん　せんすけ)

The kanji for both previous given names are incorrect in the database. Wakaazuma was accidentally given the same kanji as stablemate Tohakuryu when they both made changes in 2021.01. Nihonmatsu's given name kanji took effect with his shikona change in 2021.03, I must've simply missed that one at the time.

One rikishi changes the given name - Takakeisho no less, who reverts back to his real given name of Takanobu.

Ozeki, Takakeisho Mitsunobu > Takanobu (貴信, たかのぶ)

Edited April 30, 2023 by Yubinhaad

Yubinhaad · April 30, 2023

On 23/03/2023 at 13:48, Yubinhaad said:

With no maezumo it's impossible to know if any of the current banzuke-gai rikishi will take advantage of the free pass back onto the banzuke

Three rikishi did so:

55 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Jk5 Chikureisen
Higohikari Jk6 Reonmaru

bettega · April 30, 2023

Asanoyama should be a bit higher, right?

Tigerboy1966 · April 30, 2023

1 minute ago, bettega said:

Asanoyama should be a bit higher, right?

Yes but... he has been given a slot where he should be able to hoover up the wins. I think 12-3 is the most likely outcome, which should put him in yusho contention.

Benihana · April 30, 2023

4 minutes ago, bettega said:

Asanoyama should be a bit higher, right?

He's just back from punishment and you already want him out for drug abuse? *tssss*

Maybe he isn't ranked higher, because he was a bad boy and still gets treated accordingly.

Fashiritētā · April 30, 2023

Kotoshoho got some nice banzuke luck.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Fashiritētā

Koorifuu · April 30, 2023

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

It may seem petty, but it really upsets me that Shimanoumi isn't even in the lowest position he could have been.

Watch him survive with a 6-9!

Koorifuu · May 1, 2023

On a different note, Tsukahara got no fans in the committee, huh. Not only was his 3rd win (via 8th bout) utterly useless, his demotion was so harsh it would've been on the rough side even for 2 wins.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Koorifuu

Reonito · May 1, 2023

16 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Watch him survive with a 6-9!

(Shakinghead...) it has been done form the east side, but not from the west in modern times. I'll be rooting against him in every bout.

Kintamayama · May 1, 2023

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

It may seem petty, but it really upsets me that Shimanoumi isn't even in the lowest position he could have been in Juryo, after they already gave him a huge break by not booting him down to his rightful place in Makushita.

Next Izutsu not done with the paperwork yet?

Seiyashi · May 1, 2023

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

it has been done form the east side, but not from the west in modern times. I'll be rooting against him in every bout.

Sounds awfully familiar regarding 4-11 J9s....

Asashosakari · May 1, 2023

17 hours ago, Reonito said:

It may seem petty, but it really upsets me that Shimanoumi isn't even in the lowest position he could have been in Juryo, after they already gave him a huge break by not booting him down to his rightful place in Makushita.

I guess there was a sale on lenient 5-10 demotions or something, because Tochinoshin got off remarkably lucky, too.

Oshoma (J4w 8-7) J4 Roga (J5e 8-7)
Tochinoshin (J2w 5-10) J5 Akua (J7e 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J9w 9-6) J6 Shimazuumi (J7w 8-7)
Takakento (J12w 10-5) J7 Churanoumi (J10w 9-6)
Atamifuji (J8w 8-7) J8 Ochiai (J14w 10-5)

Would have been easily justified to take him down the full five ranks to J7w, and while keeping him in front of Takakento/Churanoumi still makes some sense, I wonder what possessed them to place him ahead of Akua/Hakuyozan/Shimazuumi as well.

Yamanashi · May 1, 2023

17 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I guess there was a sale on lenient 5-10 demotions or something, because Tochinoshin got off remarkably lucky, too.

Oshoma (J4w 8-7) J4 Roga (J5e 8-7)
Tochinoshin (J2w 5-10) J5 Akua (J7e 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J9w 9-6) J6 Shimazuumi (J7w 8-7)
Takakento (J12w 10-5) J7 Churanoumi (J10w 9-6)
Atamifuji (J8w 8-7) J8 Ochiai (J14w 10-5)

Would have been easily justified to take him down the full five ranks to J7w, and while keeping him in front of Takakento/Churanoumi still makes some sense, I wonder what possessed them to place him ahead of Akua/Hakuyozan/Shimazuumi as well.

Oshoma 8-7 goes up one half-rank; Roga 8-7 goes up one half-rank; Tochinoshin 5-10 goes down five half-ranks. Akua ... oh, never mind.

Gurowake · May 1, 2023

On 30/04/2023 at 20:03, Koorifuu said:

On a different note, Tsukahara got no fans in the committee, huh. Not only was his 3rd win (via 8th bout) utterly useless, his demotion was so harsh it would've been on the rough side even for 2 wins.

Based on my nearly-decade old lower division movements, I would have had Nishinoryu(5-2 Ms15w) -> 8e. I also have -3 for 3-4 Ms1 and -8 for 2-5 ms1. That means that it's possible they assigned him a -7 or -7.5 and have that be better than his -8, instead of averaging the two. The next highest I have is landing at 10e, though it's Yoshii, not the actual next rikishi, so you're right that such a small difference would be meaningless on this banzuke. It also means that they could very well have simply made a mistake and forgot to take the win into account; I'm guessing the lower divisions are not as highly supervised, and are left to some underling to work out. As long as they obey the fundamental rule of banzuke-making, they can do pretty much anything. This gets magnified for the 8-bout makushitans because they can be treated practically the same as someone with either the same number of wins or the same number of losses, and have it still satisfy the fundamental rule. They've in the past forgot to move someone who lost a playoff as a 7-0 and instead gave them a 6-1 movement; his matches in the subsequent basho and his movement on the subsequent banzuke I believe took that difference into account, but in this case the difference is only a few ranks and they might not care, especially given the fundamental rule not being broken.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Gurowake

Hoshotakamoto · May 2, 2023

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Based on my nearly-decade old lower division movements, I would have had Nishinoryu(5-2 Ms15w) -> 8e. I also have -3 for 3-4 Ms1 and -8 for 2-5 ms1. That means that it's possible they assigned him a -7 or -7.5 and have that be better than his -8, instead of averaging the two. The next highest I have is landing at 10e, though it's Yoshii, not the actual next rikishi, so you're right that such a small difference would be meaningless on this banzuke. It also means that they could very well have simply made a mistake and forgot to take the win into account; I'm guessing the lower divisions are not as highly supervised, and are left to some underling to work out. As long as they obey the fundamental rule of banzuke-making, they can do pretty much anything. This gets magnified for the 8-bout makushitans because they can be treated practically the same as someone with either the same number of wins or the same number of losses, and have it still satisfy the fundamental rule. They've in the past forgot to move someone who lost a playoff as a 7-0 and instead gave them a 6-1 movement; his matches in the subsequent basho and his movement on the subsequent banzuke I believe took that difference into account, but in this case teh difference is only a few ranks and they might not care, especially given the fundamental rule not being broken.

I had an idea for a new algorithm on banzuke making. Basically as you walk down from the top, you stop at each slot and add historical data points for what decisions have been made at that particular slot. I've attached an example from January 2000.

The ordering of everything between the 2nd column and the far right is not necessarily to be relied upon, but this records the historical precedent that, for example, at M12e they took a 5-10 M7e over a 10-5 J1w, over a 6-9 M9e, etc etc. Then you just fill this out for every year and know what % of the time an M12e slot favored a 5-10 M7e over a 6-9 M9e.

Given the rich history of the sport we should have sufficient data to put a full historical context on every decision as it is made, not merely "a 5-10 M7e usually doesn't fall below M12e", but a more precise analysis of the current scenario based on what options are in play.

Seiyashi · May 2, 2023

Sorry, what do you mean they took X rank-record combination over Y?

Asashosakari · May 2, 2023

Good way to finish consistently 9-6 in GTB, I reckon.

Wakawakawaka · May 2, 2023

8 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I had an idea for a new algorithm on banzuke making. Basically as you walk down from the top, you stop at each slot and add historical data points for what decisions have been made at that particular slot. I've attached an example from January 2000.

The ordering of everything between the 2nd column and the far right is not necessarily to be relied upon, but this records the historical precedent that, for example, at M12e they took a 5-10 M7e over a 10-5 J1w, over a 6-9 M9e, etc etc. Then you just fill this out for every year and know what % of the time an M12e slot favored a 5-10 M7e over a 6-9 M9e.

Given the rich history of the sport we should have sufficient data to put a full historical context on every decision as it is made, not merely "a 5-10 M7e usually doesn't fall below M12e", but a more precise analysis of the current scenario based on what options are in play.

How would you program where to put Juryo promotees though? This banzuke definitely shows it's (largely) not about rank-record combination, it seemed like they took care of placing the makuuchi guys first, then the juryo guys just fell into the hole. I'd love to try making such an algorithm, it's a fun puzzle.

Akinomaki · May 2, 2023

Nikkan mentioned a rare case in the banzuke topics: Tochimusashi is only the 2nd in history after a yusho on juryo debut to drop to makushita without reaching makuuchi http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202305020000054.html

The first was in 1988 Hidenohana

Hoshotakamoto · May 3, 2023

On 02/05/2023 at 04:47, Seiyashi said:

Sorry, what do you mean they took X rank-record combination over Y?

Working your way down from the top of the banzuke ... I'll skip Y, O, and S1e and jump in at the next line:
For S1w they preferred K1w 12-3 Miyabiyama over S1w 8-7 (Tochiazuma) and anything else that was available.
For S2e they preferred EMPTY over S1w 8-7 (Tochiazuma) or S1e 7-8 (Kaio) or anything else that was available.
For S2w they preferred S1w 8-7 Tochiazuma over S1e 7-8 (Kaio) and anything else that was available. Obviously the balanced banzuke plays into the previous 2 picks.
For S3e they preferred EMPTY over K1e 8-7 (Tosanoumi) or S1e 7-8 (Kaio) or anything else that was available.
For K1e they preferred K1e 8-7 Tosanoumi over S1e 7-8 (Kaio) or M7w 9-6 (Wakanoyama) or anything else that was available.
For K1w they preferred S1e 7-8 Kaio over M7w 9-6 (Wakanoyama) or M6e 8-7 (Kyokushuzan) or anything else that was available.
For K2e and K2w they preferred EMPTY over M7w 9-6 (Wakanoyama) or M6e 8-7 (Kyokushuzan) or anything else that was available.
And anyways it goes on like this literally down to the bottom of Jonokuchi. So you can collect those data points and make inferences about what they will likely pick on the next banzuke when presented choices that have virtually all been made at some time in the past.

Banzuke for Natsu 2023

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