Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

[Gurowake 3,875]

Here's what the banzuke might look like based on them deciding not to bother with Day 15.

Terunofuji(0-0 YOe)	Y
	O	Takakeisho(3-4 Ow)
Hoshoryu(10-4 Sw)	S	Kiribayama(11-3 Se)
Daieisho(12-2 Ke)	S	Wakamotoharu(10-4 Ke)
Kotonowaka(9-5 Kw)	K	Wakatakakage(7-7 Se)
Shodai(9-5 M1w)	K
Midorifuji(10-4 M5w)	M1	Abi(8-6 M2e)
Endo(9-5 M6e)	M2	Tobizaru(5-9 Kw)
Takayasu(9-5 M7w)	M3	Nishikifuji(9-5 M10w)
Ura(8-6 M8w)	M4	Nishikigi(5-9 M3w)
Kotoshoho(6-8 M5e)	M5	Hokutofuji(7-7 M7e)
Kinbozan(10-4 M14e)	M6	Asanoyama(12-2 J1e)
Ichinojo(13-1 J3e)	M7	Mitakeumi(4-10 M3e)
Tamawashi(3-11 M1e)	M8	Sadanoumi(6-8 M6w)
Takanosho(8-6 M11w)	M9	Meisei(4-10 M4w)
Aoiyama(6-8 M9e)	M10	Onosho(4-5 M4e)
Daishoho(8-6 M13e)	M11	Kotoeko(8-6 M13w)
Hiradoumi(6-8 M9w)	M12	Takarafuji(7-7 M12w)
Chiyoshoma(9-5 M16e)	M13	Hokuseiho(8-6 M15e)
Ryuden(1-13 M2w)	M14	Myogiryu(5-9 M10e)
Oho(7-7 M15w)	M15	Ichiyamamoto(4-10 M8e)
Kagayaki(5-9 M12e)	M16	Tsurugisho(7-7 M16w)
Mitoryu(7-7 M17e)	M17

 

 

The point of this exercise is to show that now that the sanyaku are back to hogging all the joi wins, it becomes hard to fill out the joi with reasonable candidates, with the last few getting large promotions or small demotions.  This continues through the rest of the mid maegashira.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Gurowake

[Sumo Spiffy 522]

17 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I also hope that Kiribayama finishes with more wins that Hoshoryu so we can really put to the test the theory that they rearranged the order of Wakamotoharu and Kotonowaka because it wasn't actually a demotion for Kotonowaka.

But it probably wouldn't test the theory, because they could leave Hoshoryu in place and push Kiri to S1E.

[Gurowake 3,875]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

But it probably wouldn't test the theory, because they could leave Hoshoryu in place and push Kiri to S1E.

I don't follow.  That's exactly what it would show.  They never had a chance before where they'd show whether they'd rearrange Komusubi, so the fact that they did might just be because Komusubi get rearranged, and it's only Sekiwake who don't.  Even if Kiribayama wins the yusho, from the precedent set in the past, Hoshoryu would have a good enough record to be ranked ahead of him - if he had been S1e and Kiribayama S1w.  If they rearrange them, then it must be that it's the demotion part they try to avoid.  It might have even been a one-time thing they won't repeat when they put a S1w yusho winner over a KK S1e.

[Sumo Spiffy 522]

13 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I don't follow.  That's exactly what it would show.  They never had a chance before where they'd show whether they'd rearrange Komusubi, so the fact that they did might just be because Komusubi get rearranged, and it's only Sekiwake who don't.  Even if Kiribayama wins the yusho, from the precedent set in the past, Hoshoryu would have a good enough record to be ranked ahead of him - if he had been S1e and Kiribayama S1w.  If they rearrange them, then it must be that it's the demotion part they try to avoid.  It might have even been a one-time thing they won't repeat when they put a S1w yusho winner over a KK S1e.

Oh, I misunderstood. I basically took it as a given that Kiri would land ahead of Hoshoryu with Waka Prime dropping, so I was thinking in terms of what would happen if Waka was still there and they had to decide whether to push Kiri in front of Hoshoryu or not. I didn't think of the possibility they'd move Hoshoryu up.

[Rocks 1,804]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

The YDC has no jurisdiction here; the Y stands for Yokozuna. And the NSK would never commit themselves like that, though Kiribayama is a very straightforward promotion with 10-11, depending on tomorrow. Daieisho might be in similar shape, depending on how they count his 10-5 at M1, while the other two do need something like a 13-2 yusho, unless they're desperate because Keisho can't clear kadoban.

I don't know why I thought the YDC had input into Ozeki selection. In any case I think the horse race idea is still a good one. I  don't see why committing to what almost everyone would agree is a good promotion on a 13 win yusho  especially given the sad condition of the Ozeki rank. 

[Akinomaki 39,548]

On NHK they had assumed that Wakamotoharu already was sure for sekiwake with 10 wins and Kotonowaka could get there as well with a win - we won't be able to check if they were right now that Wakamotoharu is fix with 11

[Rocks 1,804]

24 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

On NHK they had assumed that Wakamotoharu already was sure for sekiwake with 10 wins and Kotonowaka could get there as well with a win - we won't be able to check if they were right now that Wakamotoharu is fix with 11

I was sure just the opposite. The only one who could get there was Waka with a win. 

[Gernobono 447]

kiribayama for ozeki

[Akinomaki 39,548]

Next basho Wakamotoharu needs the yusho, Daieisho another runner-up result and Kiribayama just double digits to have a triple ozeki promotion

[Akinomaki 39,548]

19 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

On 25/03/2023 at 11:25, Akinomaki said:

No juryo in makuuchi tomorrow, the 3 7-7 at the low end meet already makekoshi opponents, to almost ensure that no 3rd slot will open - unless they over-demote Kagayaki if he loses to Tsurugisho

You're assuming a lot to think the 7-7s will all win. Aoiyama is perfectly capable of beating Mitoryu; likewise for Kagayaki against Tsurugisho. Hiradoumi has the best shot against Oho, but a 7-8 Oho shouldn't be at risk. 

Oho indeed lost and was the one with the least fighting spirit of any of the 6 involved in these bouts, but it still was ensured that no 3rd slot will open - unless they'll over-demote Oho for Gonoyama to punish him for having such an obnoxious father - I think Kagayaki is immune to over-demotion

[Sakura 1,462]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

On NHK they had assumed that Wakamotoharu already was sure for sekiwake with 10 wins and Kotonowaka could get there as well with a win - we won't be able to check if they were right now that Wakamotoharu is fix with 11

I've heard the NHK people say things like `he's for sure headed to Juryo', when that has really not been the case, so I don't know how seriously I'd take banzuke statements by NHK people.

[Kashunowaka 300]

18 hours ago, Reonito said:

These days I understand one can just ask ChatGPT to write the code 

My GTB entry is done!  Look how much time I saved by asking ChatGPT.

> These are the results of the just finished basho. Please predict the next makuuchi banzuke! 

Rank Rikishi Result
Y1eYO Terunofuji 0-0-15
O1w Takakeisho 3-4-8 
S1e Wakatakakage 7-7-1 
S1w Hoshoryu 10-5 
S2e Kiribayama 12-3 
K1e Wakamotoharu 11-4 
K1w Kotonowaka 9-6
etc.

ChatGPT's reply:

Based on the results of the just-finished basho, I predict the next makuuchi banzuke will look like this:

Y1e  Terunofuji
O1e  Takakeisho
O1w  Daieisho
S1e  Kiribayama
S1w  Wakamotoharu
K1e  Wakatakakage
K1w  Hoshoryu
M1e  Kotonowaka
M1w  Shodai
M2e  Abi
M2w  Mitakeumi
M3e  Tamawashi
M3w  Ryuden
M4e  Endo
M4w  Midorifuji
M5e  Takayasu
M5w  Ura
M6e  Nishikigi
M6w  Kotoshoho
M7e  Hokutofuji
M7w  Takanosho
M8e  Sadanoumi
M8w  Ichiyamamoto
M9e  Hiradoumi
M9w  Aoiyama
M10e Myogiryu
M10w Nishikifuji
M11e Takarafuji
M11w Daishoho
M12e Kotoeko
M12w Kinbozan
M13e Chiyoshoma
M13w Hokuseiho
M14e Tsurugisho
M14w Mitoryu
M15e Asanoyama
M15w Ichinojo
M16e Shonannoumi
M16w Enho

How about that! 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Quick yūshō roundup post: as we all know by now, Kiribayama beat Daieishō twice in almost the same way to clinch his first yūshō. Both are probably on the second basho of an ōzeki run and should be promotable with strong performances in Natsu. 

Ichinojō beat Tsushimanada to wrap up the jūryō yūshō, making Asanoyama's efforts against Ochiai moot.

The only toriteki yūshō to be decided was the Tamanoi dōbeya playoff in sandanme. Tōshūnryū overcame his much larger heyamate to clinch the yūshō.

[Koorifuu 860]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Next basho Wakamotoharu needs the yusho, Daieisho another runner-up result and Kiribayama just double digits to have a triple ozeki promotion

Hoshoryu would make it 33 wins with a zensho, so why not;

Hoshoryu 15-0Y
Wakamotoharu 13-2J
Daieisho 11-4
Kiribayama 10-5

Profit.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 15

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X	0-0-15	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeisho	3-4-8	X
X	7-7-1	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	10-5	O
O	12-3	Kiribayama	S
O	11-4	Wakamotoharu	K	Kotonowaka	9-6	O
O	12-3	Daieisho	K	Tobizaru	6-9	X
			M1	Shodai	10-5
	9-6	Abi	M2
			M3
			M4
			M5	Midorifuji	10-5

Demotion queue: Tobizaru
Promotion queue: Shōdai, Abi, Midorifuji

We will have four sekiwake next basho, after Wakamotoharu managed to beat Kotonowaka today to hit the magical 11 wins. He joins incumbents Hōshōryū and Kiribayama, plus Daieishō who secured his own promotion yesterday. The question is whether Kiribayama leapfrogs Hōshōryū, or Hōshōryū takes the S1e slot instead. Either way, the S2s should be Daieishō and Wakamotoharu, in that order, with Daieishō's better record giving him slight precedence.

That leaves Kotonowaka and Wakatakakage at komusubi, after Tobizaru recorded an MK.

The problem now is what to do with Shōdai, who went 10-5 at M1w. That's not quite enough to unambiguously force a haridashi komusubi slot by the 11-win standard, but enough that going to M1e alone looks like an extremely harsh decision. The latest precedent we have is Daieishō himself who was also 10-5 at M1w and turned up at K2e this basho, so chances are fairly high that the same will happen for Shōdai. That will keep sanyaku at 9 men still, albeit with 4S3K rather than this basho's 3S4K.

In that event, Abi and Midorifuji will slide fairly neatly into M1, with Tobizaru not far behind. The problem is what to do with the rest of the slots when the "best" MK in this zone is M3 Nishikigi's 6-9 and everyone else has worse (which is to be expected when we have no less then 4 double-digit records in sanyaku and the rest aren't that terrible either). The best records to call up are 9-6 M6e Endō, 10-5 M7w Takayasu, 9-6 M8w Ura, and 10-5 M10w Nishikifuji, but there's still probably going to be a bunch of lenient underpromotions for the joi in this area as Gurowake pointed out yesterday.

Going into next basho, we almost certainly have 2 ōzeki runs and perhaps even up to 4. Of the 4 sekiwake next basho, Kiribayama is on 23 wins, Daieishō on 22, Wakamotoharu on 20 and Hōshōryū on 18. 10, 11, 13, and 15 wins from each of them respectively would hit the classical 33 win mark. It might even be that depending on Takakeishō's performance and demotion risk next basho, the promotion committee decides to go slightly softer and even 32 wins will do. Kiribayama has the strongest case with J into Y and two consecutive Technique prizes; Daieishō with a D G this basho is not far behind. Wakamotoharu and Hōshōryū have weaker first bashos and have probably only just started an ōzeki run with their result this basho, but very strong performances from them next basho (e.g. 14-1s into a playoff or something similar) might persuade the NSK to change their mind.

Makuuchi/jūryō

X	4-11	Azumaryu	M11
~	5-10	Kagayaki	M12
			M13
			M14	Bushozan	5-10	X
			M15	Oho	7-8	~
			M16	Tsurugisho	8-7	O
O	8-7	Mitoryu	M17
O	13-2	Asanoyama	J1	Tohakuryu	7-8	X
			J2
O	14-1	Ichinojo	J3	Shonannoumi	9-6	~
			J4
			J5
~	11-4	Gonoyama	J6

Demotion queue: Bushōzan, Azumaryū, Kagayaki, Ōhō
Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Ichinojō, Gōnoyama, Shōnannoumi

Mitoryū and Tsurugishō saved themselves today, restricting the definite promotions to Asanoyama and Ichinojo. The question is whether or not a third, or even a fourth, promotion materialises. The demotees would be either Kagayaki, who computes to M17e, or Ōhō, who computes to M16w; demoting either of them would be unlucky even before taking into account makuuchi incumbent advantage, which didn't seem to be applied last basho. Gōnoyama comes out ahead of Shōnnanoumi in the promotion race, but an 11-4 J6e forcing down a 5-10 M12e feels like a massive stretch. I'd say we'll only see two exchanges here this time, with Gōnoyama and Shōnnanoumi left at J1 to try for promotion again next basho.

Jūryō/makushita

X	4-11	Tsushimanada	J9
X	4-11	Kotokuzan	J10
X	5-10	Shimanoumi	J11
X	4-11	Tochimusashi	J12
			J13
X	4-11	Tokushoryu	J14
			Ms1
	4-3	Fujiseiun	Ms2	Chiyosakae	5-2
	4-3	Tokihayate	Ms3	Kawazoe	4-3
			Ms4
	4-3	Chiyonoumi	Ms5
	6-1	Shiden	Ms6	Hayatefuji	4-3

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Kōtokuzan, Shimanoumi, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Fujiseiun, Tokihayate, Kawazoe, Shiden?, Chiyonoumi.

The bottom did drop out of lower jūryō in the end, with no less than 5 demotable records. Four of them should be pretty uncontentious; Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Kōtokuzan, and Shimanoumi should all be going down in favour of the KKs at Ms2-Ms3. That would make for 3 jūryō debuts for Fujiseiun, Tokihayate, and Kawazoe.

The question is whether there will be a fifth exchange and which toriteki goes up. 4-11 at J9e has always resulted in a demotion, but the corresponding fifth promotee would be either 4-3 Ms5e Chiyonoumi or 6-1 Ms6e Shiden. If Shiden had lost today Chiyonoumi would have fairly unambiguously gone up, since Ms6 is outside the promotion zone, but it remains to be seen whether Shiden's two wins are enough to overcome that disadvantage. Research by Reonito suggests that it may be, although it's a single data point and a dated example from 1983. I think we will definitely see a fifth promotion at Tsushimanada's expense, though I wouldn't like to say who the promotee will be. In any case, we'll find out soon enough next Wednesday.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Kaito 272]

Ishiura went up with a 6-1 from Ms6W, chosen over a 4-3 from Ms5e. From previous research, it was hard to even say 4-3s from Ms4 were favored over 6-1s from Ms6. There are just so few situations where both records happen simultaneously AND the right number of juryo slots are available for them to be tested against one another. I'm pretty confident Shiden's going up.

GTB looks quite tough to me atm. I feel like you can try Ichinojo/Asanoyama anywhere from M5W/M6E to M13W/M14E, and nothing works out quite right.

[Gurowake 3,875]

36 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Four of them should be pretty uncontentious; Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Kōtokuzan, and Shimanoumi should all be going down in favour of the KKs at Ms2-Ms3.

I don't see why you're singling out Shimanoumi as definitely staying over Tsushimanada.  They seem equivalent to me, and if anything I'd put Tsushimanada ahead of Shimanoumi on the banzuke in general.  I also think it is more likely that both of them are staying and neither Shiden nor Kawazoe will be promoted, but that's not particularly more likely than the next most likely option, which is that both Shimanoumi and Tsushimanada get demoted and both Kawazoe and Shiden get promoted.  I think splitting the difference is not as likely to happen because it doesn't seem fair to either of both pairs that get the shaft.

For Makuuchi, I don't think we'll see any overdemotions; those are very rare and only occur when they aren't actually overdemotions due to disappearing ranks or the records in Juryo compel promotion.  That's just not the case with Gonoyama or Shonannoumi.  In the banzuke I linked previously featuring an overdemotion, it was for an 11-4 J2w, quite a ways from an 11-4 J6e.

Shodai seems to be a lock on Komusubi.  I can't imagine them changing their minds from last basho regarding whether a 10-5 M1w should be promoted when they didn't promote Tamawashi and thus couldn't have been using the excuse that he deserved to be ranked ahead of Tobizaru who needed to be promoted as a KK M1e.  We never really had an opportunity before to see what they'd do with a M1w 10-5 with no Komusubi spots open until last basho, so given their decisions then it seems odd to not think it to be the standard.  Only if the committee were changing would I consider it otherwise.

[Gurowake 3,875]

Gonoyama(11-4 J6e)	J1	Shonannoumi(9-6 J3w)
Azumaryu(4-11 M11e)	J2	Tohakuryu(7-8 J1w)
Bushozan(5-10 M14w)	J3	Enho(9-6 J5w)
Oshoma(8-7 J4w)	J4	Roga(8-7 J5e)
Akua(8-7 J7e)	J5	Shimazuumi(8-7 J7w)
Hakuyozan(9-6 J9w)	J6	Tochinoshin(5-10 J2w)
Atamifuji(8-7 J8w)	J7	Churanoumi(9-6 J10w)
Takakento(10-5 J12w)	J8	Daiamami(6-9 J6w)
Ochiai(10-5 J14w)	J9	Chiyonokuni(3-12 J2e)
Chiyomaru(4-11 J4e)	J10	Kitanowaka(8-7 J11w)
Hidenoumi(6-9 J8e)	J11	Tamashoho(8-7 J13e)
Tomokaze(8-7 J13w)	J12	Chiyosakae(5-2 Ms2w)
Fujiseiun(4-3 Ms2e)	J13	Tokihayate(4-3 Ms3e)
Tsushimanada(4-11 J9e)	J14	Shimanoumi(5-10 J11e)

 

Kawazoe(4-3 Ms3w)	Ms1	Shiden(6-1 Ms6e)
Kotokuzan(4-11 J10e)	Ms2	Chiyonoumi(4-3 Ms5e)
Ryuo(7-0 Ms26e)	Ms3	Shishi(6-1 Ms12e)
Tochimusashi(4-11 J12e)	Ms4	Hayatefuji(4-3 Ms6w)
Yuma(5-2 Ms9w)	Ms5	Terutsuyoshi(3-4 Ms1w)
Mukainakano(4-3 Ms8e)	Ms6	Dewanoryu(5-2 Ms11e)
Tokushoryu(4-11 J14e)	Ms7	Tsukahara(3-5 Ms1e)
Akiseyama(4-3 Ms10e)	Ms8	Kamito(4-3 Ms10w)
Kanzaki(5-2 Ms15e)	Ms9	Nishinoryu(5-2 Ms15w)
Kaisho(3-4 Ms4w)	Ms10	Nabatame(6-1 Ms24w)
Yoshii(5-2 Ms19e)	Ms11	Miyagi(4-3 Ms14w)
Kotoozutsu(5-2 Ms20e)	Ms12	Kazekeno(4-3 Ms16w)
Ishizaki(3-4 Ms7w)	Ms13	Mineyaiba(2-5 Ms4e)
Chiyonoo(4-3 Ms17e)	Ms14	Takahashi(6-1 Ms33w)
Tochimaru(3-4 Ms9e)	Ms15	Tokunomusashi(4-3 Ms18e)

 

I didn't think Toshunryu deserved the spot there in the extended promotion zone over the last few rikishi there.  We've already seen in the past that Sd25 7-0s aren't guaranteed a spot when there are more deserving candidates.  An Sd24 7-0 really only deserves the last spot, while Tokunomusashi probably deserves to be ranked Ms14.  That said, my numbers for Makushita movements are very old and I've not really tried to update them based on things that we've seen since I computed them. 

[Reonito 1,296]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Ichinojō beat Tsushimanada to wrap up the jūryō yūshō, making Asanoyama's efforts against Ochiai moot.

But what an effort it was!

[Reonito 1,296]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Hoshoryu would make it 33 wins with a zensho, so why not;

Hoshoryu 15-0Y
Wakamotoharu 13-2J
Daieisho 11-4
Kiribayama 10-5

Profit.

Guys over on sumo talk:

[Seiyashi 4,068]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

But what an effort it was!

Yeah, that was a bout that had no business being in jūryō. 

With Asanoyama and Ichinojō promoted next basho, I expect great things from Ochiai next basho. 

[Reonito 1,296]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah, that was a bout that had no business being in jūryō. 

With Asanoyama and Ichinojō promoted next basho, I expect great things from Ochiai next basho. 

Yup. If we don't get a bonus promotion, I'm looking forward to him vs. Gonoyama and Shonannoumi.

[Asashosakari 18,669]

3 hours ago, Sakura said:

I've heard the NHK people say things like `he's for sure headed to Juryo', when that has really not been the case, so I don't know how seriously I'd take banzuke statements by NHK people.

This a thousand times.

The new banzuke doesn't seem too difficult to do if one doesn't mind Abi at M1e and (especially) severely ugly underdemotions. Lots of degrees of freedom though, so GTB looks like quite a crapshoot.

Shiden to juryo for real this time, please.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,296]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I don't see why you're singling out Shimanoumi as definitely staying over Tsushimanada.  They seem equivalent to me, and if anything I'd put Tsushimanada ahead of Shimanoumi on the banzuke in general.  I also think it is more likely that both of them are staying and neither Shiden nor Kawazoe will be promoted, but that's not particularly more likely than the next most likely option, which is that both Shimanoumi and Tsushimanada get demoted and both Kawazoe and Shiden get promoted.

We certainly have examples of 4-11 J9 being exchanged with promotion candidates no better than Kawazoe, and no one with those numbers has ever stayed up. It's similar for 5-10 from J11, so I don't think both staying is on the table.

[Tigerboy1966 1,374]

2 hours ago, Kaito said:

GTB looks quite tough to me atm. I feel like you can try Ichinojo/Asanoyama anywhere from M5W/M6E to M13W/M14E, and nothing works out quite right.

I think it doesn't look too tough, but the positioning of the big two promotees is the real puzzler. Common sense would suggest that there isn't much point popping them in near the bottom of the banzuke where they would just batter everyone (apart from each other). It would be sensible to place them around M5/M6 on the fringe of jo'i... it would also be a lot more fun.

The only other thing that could really spoil your day on the first of May is "The Shodai Conundrum" which btw, would be great title for a Robert Ludlum novel.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Tigerboy1966
ce