Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

No juryo in makuuchi tomorrow, the 3 7-7 at the low end meet already makekoshi opponents, to almost ensure that no 3rd slot will open - unless they over-demote Kagayaki if he loses to Tsurugisho

You're assuming a lot to think the 7-7s will all win. Aoiyama is perfectly capable of beating Mitoryu; likewise for Kagayaki against Tsurugisho. Hiradoumi has the best shot against Oho, but a 7-8 Oho shouldn't be at risk.

7 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

As usual, things sort out in the end, Azumaryu did the expected and opened the slot for Ichinojo. But we can't have a real exchange bout for Tohakuryu, he already lost to Mitoryu and Tsurugisho. And the two and Oho also met, Oho wouldn't be overdemoted for Gonoyama or Tohakuryu anyway. Gonoyama vs. Mitoryu would be a good one, plus Tohakuryu- Oho, with another makuuchi kyujo now, even if it's no exchange bout.

Would Tohakuryu be promoted instead of Gonoyama, if both win, Gonoyama defeating Mitoryu, and no additional spot? By the numbers rather Gonoyama.

11-4 Gonoyama should be prioritized for any third spot. If both Tsurugisho and Mitoryu lose, presumably an 8-7 Tohakuryu would get the next one, but the committee could push a 9-6 Shonnaoumi ahead of him if they're in the mood.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Yamanashi 3,725]

29 minutes ago, Sakura said:

At the moment both Bushozan and Azumaryu have demotable records. It's not bad luck to be demoted if you have a demotable record.

It's certainly not extremely bad luck, but I wouldn't tell them that to their face.

[Gurowake 3,922]

11 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

5 is still a possibility. 6 is out of the question.

And now with Kotonowaka losing we're down to at most 4, and possibly only 3 with Wakamotoharu also losing.

[Kashunowaka 300]

11 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

My entire life says I need to learn Python, but for all the ridiculously nerdy things I understand, programming specifically has always failed to make even the slightest dent.

For sumo, Ruby is clearly the better choice.  

[Seiyashi 4,071]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

It's certainly not extremely bad luck, but I wouldn't tell them that to their face.

I wouldn't tell a rikishi anything negative to their face.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

20 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

For sumo, Ruby is clearly the better choice.  

I will... strongly consider it. But there's language inertia to overcome.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 14

Makuuchi
12-2: K2e Daieishō
11-3: S2e Kiribayama

And so sanyaku proves to be too much for Midorifuji, as expected. It was a valiant run, but four consecutive losses, including to the new arasoi leader Daieishō, puts the nail in the coffin of Midorifuji's yūshō hopes. The only man capable of stopping Daieishō's second yūshō is Kiribayama; he must beat Daieishō once in the musubi no ichiban regulation bout and then one more time in the playoff. Fail to win either bout, and Daieishō has a second yūshō to go with a forced promotion to sekiwake and an ōzeki run in Natsu.

Jūryō

13-1: J3e Ichinojō
12-2: J1e Asanoyama

Ichinojō retains his one win lead over Asanoyama, beating Enhō today. However, as they've already fought, Asanoyama cannot force a playoff under his own steam like Kiribayama can. Instead, he must hope that a 4-10 Tsushimanada somehow finds the strength to try and stave off demotion by beating Ichinojō, and then must himself beat 10-4 Ochiai. Between you and me, I think the yūshō is as good as Ichinojō's.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 14

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X	0-0-14	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeisho	3-4-7	X
X	7-7	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	10-4	O
O	11-3	Kiribayama	S
O	10-4	Wakamotoharu	K	Kotonowaka	9-5	O
O	12-2	Daieisho	K	Tobizaru	5-9	X
			M1	Shodai	9-5	O
1	8-6	Abi	M2
			M3
			M4
			M5	Midorifuji	10-4	O

Demotion queue: Tobizaru
Promotion queue: Shōdai, Midorifuji, Abi

Wakatakakage's basho came to a prematurely abrupt end after he busted his knee in his first bout against Kotonowaka yesterday. Luckily for him, he's at 7 wins, so any damage is limited to komusubi. Otherwise, we have three sekiwake spoken for: the KK incumbents Hōshōryū and Kiribayama, and 12-2 Daieishō. Wakamotoharu could join them tomorrow with a defeat of Kotonowaka, although Kotonowaka's loss today means that he can no longer hit the 11 wins necessary.

Shōdai at 9-5 at M1 is the first in line for a sanyaku slot, and while sliding over with 9-6 might be defensible if unlucky, doing so with a 10-5 feels even worse. Against his credit, though, are is the fact that he's M1w, scoring a maximum of 10 wins (short of the 11+ that have forced slots unconditionally), that no regular komusubi slot will open between Kotonowaka holding rank and Wakatakakage falling to komusubi, and the massive void in the joi hiramaku due to very few falling sanyaku and insufficient great results from just outside this zone. It's entirely possible that other than Tobizaru falling, we see no sanyaku promotions.

Makuuchi/jūryō

X	3-11	Azumaryu	M11
O	5-9	Kagayaki	M12
			M13
			M14	Bushozan	4-10	X
			M15	Oho	7-7	O
			M16	Tsurugisho	7-7	1
1	7-7	Mitoryu	M17
O	12-2	Asanoyama	J1	Tohakuryu	7-7	1
			J2
O	13-1	Ichinojo	J3	Shonannoumi	8-6	1
			J4
			J5
~	10-4	Gonoyama	J6
			J7

Demotion queue: Bushōzan, Azumaryū, Mitoryū, Tsurugishō
Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Ichinojō, Gōnoyama, Tōhakuryū,

Bushōzan and Azumaryū lost today, sealing their fate to go down in favour of Asanoyama and Ichinojō. Kagayaki and Ōhō have sketchy records but are high enough to be fairly safe.

The real question now is whether there are third or even fourth slots opening, courtesy of Mitoryū and maybe Tsurugishō. Mitoryū takes on Aoiyama, while Tsurugishō has Kagayaki, so there's no interdivisional exchange bouts that might factor into the calculus. Mitoryū losing will almost certainly send him down from makujiri, whereas Tsurugishō theoretically has a half-rank buffer and his demotion case depends on the strength of the promotion cases in jūryō. 

Right now, that queue is led by Gōnoyama, although Tōhakuryū with a win tomorrow might have a slightly stronger claim by virtue of a much higher rank. If Tōhakuryū loses, though, Shōnannoumi with a win might be part of the conversation, although it's borderline that a 9-6 from J3w is enough to force down a 7-8 M16w where M17e exists. And of course it's all moot if Tsurugishō manages to win tomorrow and save his rank, keeping the number of promotions to a maximum of 3.

Jūryō/makushita

1	4-10	Tsushimanada	J9
X	4-10	Kotokuzan	J10
1	5-9	Shimanoumi	J11
X	4-10	Tochimusashi	J12
			J13
X	4-10	Tokushoryu	J14
			Ms1
O	4-3	Fujiseiun	Ms2	Chiyosakae	5-1	O
O	4-3	Tokihayate	Ms3	Kawazoe	4-3	~
			Ms4
~	3-3	Chiyonoumi	Ms5
~	5-1	Shiden	Ms6	Hayatefuji	4-3	~

 

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Kōtokuzan, Shimanoumi, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Fujiseiun, Tokihayate, Kawazoe, Shiden (with a win), Chiyonoumi (with a win).

Kōtokuzan added his name to the makushita demotion list, making for 3 demotions in favour of sai-jūryō Chiyosakae and presumptive shin-jūryō Fujiseiun and Tokihayate. Kawazoe losing to Shimanoumi not only fails to add a fourth exchange, but also dents Kawazoe's claim to a promotion by virtue of losing an exchange bout. There are some interdivisional bouts tomorrow: Tochimusashi has 3-3 Chiyonoumi, while Tokushōryū has Tsukahara, but I don't see that anything turns on the outcomes of those bouts; it's Shimanoumi v Gōnoyama (one fighting against demotion and another for promotion) and Tsushimanada v Ichinojō (one fighting against demotion and another for the yūshō) that will be the important bouts. Losses might reopen promotion cases for Kawazoe, a win from Chiyonoumi, or even a 6-1 Shiden just outside the promotion zone (probably leapfrogging Chiyonoumi in that case).

Edited March 25, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Hakuryuho 334]

39 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I wouldn't tell a rikishi anything negative to their face.

Oh I sure would! 

But thankfully they don't understand German

[Yamanashi 3,725]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

I will... strongly consider it. But there's language inertia to overcome.

I'm with you.  There are two types of people (on the STEM side):

1) "Java was getting a little clunky for Android, so I picked up Kotlin last weekend at a webinar."

2) "I need to learn MATLAB; is it similar to FORTRAN?"

[Rocks 1,807]

To me the YDC should be bold here. If Wakamotoharu and Hoshuryu win tomorrow  they should end up up 4 Sekiwake for May. Kiribaymaya, Hoshoryu, Daieisho and Wakamoroharu. All 4 would be legitimate Ozeki promotions with a Yusho win IMHO. 

Announce that if any of the 4 get a 13 win Yusho or better they are assured a promotion to Ozeki. That will liven up the May basho. Especially if Terunofuji and Takakeisho don't show up or don't do well.

[Akinomaki 39,790]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

You're assuming a lot to think the 7-7s will all win. Aoiyama is perfectly capable of beating Mitoryu; likewise for Kagayaki against Tsurugisho. Hiradoumi has the best shot against Oho, but a 7-8 Oho shouldn't be at risk. 

I am assuming what is common knowledge and the main reason why the torikumi on day 14 were delayed in recent years, to avoid as much mukiryoku sumo as possible by pairing the 7-7 against each other or opponents with something similar on the line. The results on other days in the past are of minor importance for these bouts.

[Reonito 1,335]

15 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

My entire life says I need to learn Python, but for all the ridiculously nerdy things I understand, programming specifically has always failed to make even the slightest dent.

But solving how the makushita banzuke works? Irresistable!

These days I understand one can just ask ChatGPT to write the code 

[Reonito 1,335]

9 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

No juryo in makuuchi tomorrow, the 3 7-7 at the low end meet already makekoshi opponents, to almost ensure that no 3rd slot will open - unless they over-demote Kagayaki if he loses to Tsurugisho

Nah they're not over-demoting anyone now that there's room for Ichi and Asa.

[Sakura 1,472]

I wouldn't say that Azumaryu is a definite demotion. It is true that his loss opened up a slot for Ichinojo, but if Mitoryu loses and the Juryo hopefuls all lose as well (and if Azumaryu wins), then it is possible they'd choose Mitoryu and Bushozan to go down instead. 

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Shōdai at 9-5 at M1 is the first in line for a sanyaku slot, and while sliding over with 9-6 might be defensible if unlucky, doing so with a 10-5 feels even worse. Against his credit, though, are is the fact that he's M1w, scoring a maximum of 10 wins (short of the 11+ that have forced slots unconditionally), that no regular komusubi slot will open between Kotonowaka holding rank and Wakatakakage falling to komusubi, and the massive void in the joi hiramaku due to very few falling sanyaku and insufficient great results from just outside this zone. It's entirely possible that other than Tobizaru falling, we see no sanyaku promotions.

9-6 M1w -> M1e is pretty much what I would expect with no open slot. 10-5 M1w -> M1e has never happened, and Daieisho just went to K2e, so it'll be interesting how they handle it if it comes to pass.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Rocks said:

To me the YDC should be bold here. If Wakamotoharu and Hoshuryu win tomorrow  they should end up up 4 Sekiwake for May. Kiribaymaya, Hoshoryu, Daieisho and Wakamoroharu. All 4 would be legitimate Ozeki promotions with a Yusho win IMHO. 

Announce that if any of the 4 get a 13 win Yusho or better they are assured a promotion to Ozeki. That will liven up the May basho. Especially if Terunofuji and Takakeisho don't show up or don't do well.

The YDC has no jurisdiction here; the Y stands for Yokozuna. And the NSK would never commit themselves like that, though Kiribayama is a very straightforward promotion with 10-11, depending on tomorrow. Daieisho might be in similar shape, depending on how they count his 10-5 at M1, while the other two do need something like a 13-2 yusho, unless they're desperate because Keisho can't clear kadoban.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

51 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

I am assuming what is common knowledge and the main reason why the torikumi on day 14 were delayed in recent years, to avoid as much mukiryoku sumo as possible by pairing the 7-7 against each other or opponents with something similar on the line. The results on other days in the past are of minor importance for these bouts.

If Mitoryu and Tsurugisho get suspiciously easy wins, I call shenanigans. 

[Reonito 1,335]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Kōtokuzan, Shimanoumi, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Fujiseiun, Tokihayate, Kawazoe, Shiden (with a win), Chiyonoumi (with a win).

Tokushoryu and Tochimusashi are toast. Kotokuzan, Shimanoumi, and Tsushimanada should all be toast with a loss. Tsushimanada and Shimanoumi are safe with a win. For Kotokuzan, a win would put him on the bubble, depending where he is in the demotion queue. I think he'd go down for Tokihayate if he's 3rd, maybe for Kawazoe if he's 4th, and almost certainly not for Shiden or Chiyonoumi if he's 5th.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

9-6 M1w -> M1e is pretty much what I would expect with no open slot. 10-5 M1w -> M1e has never happened, and Daieisho just went to K2e, so it'll be interesting how they handle it if it comes to pass.

I see no reason to resist overpopulation of lower sanyaku when upper sanyaku is essentially non-existent. 

[Sakura 1,472]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Kōtokuzan, Shimanoumi, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Fujiseiun, Tokihayate, Kawazoe, Shiden (with a win), Chiyonoumi (with a win).

I still think Chiyonoumi with a win would be ahead of Shiden with a win, just because Chiyonoumi is within the Ms5 ranks and Shiden isn't.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I still think Chiyonoumi with a win would be ahead of Shiden with a win, just because Chiyonoumi is within the Ms5 ranks and Shiden isn't.

Is this an "official" rule?

[Reonito 1,335]

9 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I still think Chiyonoumi with a win would be ahead of Shiden with a win, just because Chiyonoumi is within the Ms5 ranks and Shiden isn't.

We have examples of a 4-3 Ms5w getting promoted ahead of a 5-2 Ms6e; not sure if this would still apply for 4-3 vs. 6-1. There's this counterexample, but it's from 1983.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Reonito

[Gurowake 3,922]

I found it quite interesting that they lucked into having the two Yusho contenders matched up on the final day.  It would have been even sweeter if Kotonowaka had beaten Endo and his match vs. Wakamotoharu Day 15 determined which of them would move to Sekiwake. 

[Gurowake 3,922]

I also hope that Kiribayama finishes with more wins that Hoshoryu so we can really put to the test the theory that they rearranged the order of Wakamotoharu and Kotonowaka because it wasn't actually a demotion for Kotonowaka.