Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

And if the bottom really falls out of lower jūryō including Tsushimanada going 4-11 (that has always landed a J9 in makushita since 1967) for a fifth slot, even a 6-1 Shiden looks like a plausible promotion. 

I'd include 3-3 Ms5e Chiyonoumi for completeness, as he is in the promotion zone. We should be able to tell from the day 15 schedule how they're thinking about this, depending on day 14 results in juryo, of course. Tomorrow Kawazoe fights Shimanoumi with a chance to both secure promotion and open up another slot.

[Ripe 70]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Considering that not that long ago, M4 Takayasu couldn't crack the sanyaku at 11-4, it's probably not correct to assume that even a 12-3 Midori is a lock for komusubi. That's probably an irrelevant idea anyway; it's really hard to see him winning the last two after dropping his past three against a similar level of competition. 11-4 might be more viable if he loses to Daieisho and manages to slip away from the sanyaku for his last match, but that's probably an M1 waiting to happen.

Takayasu also had M1e Tobizaru go 10-5 and M3e Tamawashi go 13-2Y with both of them forcing creation of additional Komusubi slot... meaning Takayasu would have to force 5th Komusubi slot which never happened before.

[lackmaker 432]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Sanyaku/joi

X	0-0-13	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeishō	3-4-6	X
1	7-6	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	9-4	O
O	10-3	Kiribayama	S
O	10-3	Wakamotoharu	K	Kotonowaka	9-4	O
O	11-2	Daieishō	K	Tobizaru	4-9	X
			M1	Shōdai	8-5	1
1	8-5	Abi	M2
			M3
			 M4
			M5	Midorifuji	10-3	O
2	8-5	Endō	M6
X	7-6	Hokutofuji	M7	    Takayasu	8-5	X

Should Endo be an X' not a 2, or have I misunderstood your system?

[Sakura 1,472]

1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

Should Endo be an X' not a 2, or have I misunderstood your system?

Endo would be fourth in line and there will be at best two slots (I assume), so the X for Endo would make sense.

[Reonito 1,335]

Pretty unusual that the san'yaku promotion contenders have to hope for wins by the incumbents.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

Bushozan is not technically toast just yet, everyone below him could jump him in the queue and there could only be 3 promotions from Juryo.

[Reonito 1,335]

32 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Bushozan is not technically toast just yet, everyone below him could jump him in the queue and there could only be 3 promotions from Juryo.

True, he's just the only one so far who'd definitely go down even if he won out if there were no better demotion candidates. I wouldn't be surprised if there were only 2 promotions.

[Ripe 70]

29 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Bushozan is not technically toast just yet, everyone below him could jump him in the queue and there could only be 3 promotions from Juryo.

Maybe not, but he no longer control his own destiny... at this point he not only need to win out, but he also needs everyone else to loose all of their remaining matches.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

5 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Should Endo be an X' not a 2, or have I misunderstood your system?

He should be an X now that I look at it, since he has no hope of going past M1 on record anyway (regardless of number of slots). God knows why I went from 3 to 2 when Endo lost yesterday. 

I really should look at some way of doing this programmatically, or at least the stuff I seem to be making careless mistakes with. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,335]

12 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

He should be an X now that I look at it, since he has no hope of going past M1 on record anyway (regardless of number of slots). God knows why I went from 3 to 2 when Endo lost yesterday. 

I really should look at some way of doing this programmatically, or at least the stuff I seem to be making careless mistakes with. 

My error rate dropped since I started importing the wins from sumodb directly into my spreadsheet, instead of updating them manually.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

My error rate dropped since I started importing the wins from sumodb directly into my spreadsheet, instead of updating them manually.

I also take the wins from sumodb directly (a bit more crudely via copypaste for formatting reasons), but I update the wins needed manually (with reference to yesterday's analysis). Scraping the DB is trivial, writing the logic for the numerical analysis needs a bit more time and effort that I don't have at the moment.

Maybe after my classes end for the semester and between basho. 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,335]

23 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I also take the wins from sumodb directly (a bit more crudely via copypaste for formatting reasons), but I update the wins needed manually (with reference to yesterday's analysis). Scraping the DB is trivial, writing the logic for the numerical analysis needs a bit more time and effort that I don't have at the moment.

Maybe after my classes end for the semester and between basho. 

Ah, that's what I have in the spreadsheet, it doesn't always handle things like E/W near the bottom gracefully, but otherwise it works.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Ah, that's what I have in the spreadsheet, it doesn't always handle things like E/W near the bottom gracefully, but otherwise it works.

Yeah the perfectionist in me is hung up with that edge case...

[Reonito 1,335]

12 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah the perfectionist in me is hung up with that edge case...

I'm sure I could adjust the formula, but I just treat a 0 on the west side as a 1.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

My error rate dropped since I started importing the wins from sumodb directly into my spreadsheet, instead of updating them manually.

How do you do that?

[Reonito 1,335]

17 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

How do you do that?

"Importing" = copy/paste 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

37 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

How do you do that?

I can scrape sumodb data in Python via the requests library (I did my Ōzeki Quality post with that script), but it's a matter of handling formatting and logic after that, which I can't be arsed to do at the moment. Plus I would like to understand makushita promotion principles a bit better - it's not quite 1 win == 1 rank there, is it?

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

I can scrape sumodb data in Python via the requests library (I did my Ōzeki Quality post with that script), but it's a matter of handling formatting and logic after that, which I can't be arsed to do at the moment. Plus I would like to understand makushita promotion principles a bit better - it's not quite 1 win == 1 rank there, is it?

Yeah I've never quite been able to translate that into numbers, or even clear principles.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

There won't be 5 sekiwake now :(

 

 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

2 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

There won't be 5 sekiwake now :(

5 is still a possibility. 6 is out of the question.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I can scrape sumodb data in Python via the requests library (I did my Ōzeki Quality post with that script), but it's a matter of handling formatting and logic after that, which I can't be arsed to do at the moment. Plus I would like to understand makushita promotion principles a bit better - it's not quite 1 win == 1 rank there, is it?

My entire life says I need to learn Python, but for all the ridiculously nerdy things I understand, programming specifically has always failed to make even the slightest dent.

But solving how the makushita banzuke works? Irresistable!

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Based on their records, Asanoyama is automatic and there's no denying Ichinojo at 13-1. There's going to be two wrestlers at the bottom of makuuchi with some extremely bad banzuke luck

[Akinomaki 39,802]

As usual, things sort out in the end, Azumaryu did the expected and opened the slot for Ichinojo. But we can't have a real exchange bout for Tohakuryu, he already lost to Mitoryu and Tsurugisho. And the two and Oho also met, Oho wouldn't be overdemoted for Gonoyama or Tohakuryu anyway. Gonoyama vs. Mitoryu would be a good one, plus Tohakuryu- Oho, with another makuuchi kyujo now, even if it's no exchange bout.

Would Tohakuryu be promoted instead of Gonoyama, if both win, Gonoyama defeating Mitoryu, and no additional spot? By the numbers rather Gonoyama.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Akinomaki 39,802]

No juryo in makuuchi tomorrow, the 3 7-7 at the low end meet already makekoshi opponents, to almost ensure that no 3rd slot will open - unless they over-demote Kagayaki if he loses to Tsurugisho

Edited March 25, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Sakura 1,472]

8 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Based on their records, Asanoyama is automatic and there's no denying Ichinojo at 13-1. There's going to be two wrestlers at the bottom of makuuchi with some extremely bad banzuke luck

At the moment both Bushozan and Azumaryu have demotable records. It's not bad luck to be demoted if you have a demotable record.