Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

[Kamitsuumi 384]

27 minutes ago, Ripe said:

39th Yokozuna Maedayama was promoted from Komusubi straight to Ozeki following his 11-4J in his first basho as Komusubi... granted, that was in 1938 but he is still the only Yokozuna who never held Sekiwake rank.

11-2

[Churaumi 728]

Saying "X never happened in the history of sumo" is a futile proposition, since what with rule changes, lack of some rules altogether, custom changes, and the general wishy-wahiness of the decision-making process of the Kyokai, someone can search the database and find a case to refute any assertion.

It's part of what makes following sumo fun.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 12

Makuuchi
10-2: K2e Daieishō, M5w Midorifuji
9-3: S2e Kiribayama, K1e Wakamotoharu, K1w Kotonowaka,
8-4: S1w Hōshōryū, M6e Endō, M13e Daishōhō, M14e Kinbōzan, M16e Chiyoshōma

It looks like Midorifuji is going to join Takayasu in that dubious record after all. Midorifuji stated he was watching Wakatakakage to make sure he wouldn't henka, but the result of it was coming slow out of the tachiai and never really managing to gain the initiative in the match. Daieishō took advantage of this to draw level with Midorifuji, coming within 1 win of a forced sekiwake slot and having fought all of the sanyaku but Kiribayama and Tobizaru. A second yūshō would be an excellent feather in his cap on his path to ōzeki - if he can pull out a third good basho, which he's never done before.

Midorifuji's loss also brought the 3- and 4-loss groups back into the game. Kiribayama took out Hōshōryū to keep an ōzeki run alive at 20/33 now; he can still run up the score further. Wakamotoharu dispatched Endō and Kotonowaka handed Meisei an MK to stay in the chase. Of the hunters not thus far mentioned, Daishōhō beat Hiradoumi and Kinbōzan beat Mitoryū.

Surprisingly, even in day 13, the torikumi committee is not yet attempting to shape the yūshō race. One wonders if the lack of Takakeishō and Terunofuji is causing this somehow. Anyhow, Daieishō takes on Meisei(???) while Midorifuji has Hōshōryū; Kiribayama has Endō while Wakamotoharu has Hokutofuji. Kotonowaka takes on Wakatakakage, and the remaining hiramaku have equally random opponents like Ura, Hiradoumi, and Takayasu respectively - I guess no one sees them as a threat.

Jūryō
11-1: J3e Ichinojō
10-2: J1e Asanoyama
9-3: J6e Gōnoyama 

No one could have expected this: Asanoyama lost to Ōhō to fall one behind. Of all the 3-loss rikishi from yesterday, only Gōnoyama survived, beating fellow 3-loss Ochiai. The 8 win rikishi are technically still in it but 1 more win from Ichinojō will put them out of their misery. Before today, I'd have said that Ichinojō going up to face Bushōzan in makuuchi is a gimme, but who knows what will happen. Asanoyama takes on KK-seeking Akua, while Gōnoyama takes on Tōhakuryū.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 12

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X	0-0-12	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeisho	3-4-5	X
2	6-6	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	8-4	O
O	9-3	Kiribayama	S
O	9-3	Wakamotoharu	K	Kotonowaka	9-3	O
O	10-2	Daieisho	K	Tobizaru	4-8	X
			M1	Shodai	7-5	2
2	7-5	Abi	M2
			M3
			M4
			M5	Midorifuji	10-2	O
3	8-4	Endo	M6
X	7-5	Hokutofuji	M7	Takayasu	7-5	X

 

Demotion queue: Tobizaru, Wakatakakage
Promotion queue: Midorifuji, Shōdai, Abi, Endō

We have our first confirmed demotion. Tobizaru lost against Shōdai to definitely vacate his komusubi rank, but given that it's a haridashi slot, it's not immediately clear that there will be a successor. If there is, it'll be one of three: Midorifuji (with at least one more win), Wakatakakage (with a 7-8), or Shōdai (with a 9-6 or better).

Our problem, however, is going to be with a huge void in this part of the banzuke. As the number of empty ranks show, a lot of joi rikishi have failed to clock KKs and are going to go for a bit of a ride down the banzuke. Worse still, a lot of those records are quite bad: we have 1-11 Ryūden, 4-11 Ōnoshō, 4-8 Mitakeumi, Meisei, Kotoshōhō, and Sadanoumi, and 3-9 Nishikigi. Winouts would justify minimal movement, solving this problem, but losing out is going to cause the opposite of the joi pressure that we've been seeing in the past few basho.

The only double-digit hiramaku result at present is Midorifuji, and the next best hiramaku result is 8-4 Endō. There's probably going to be some lenient demotions for Tobizaru, unfair underpromotions for Shōdai and Abi, if that comes to pass, possibly a shafting of Midorifuji at M2 or M3, especially if he loses out, and a buttload of overpromotions for the KK-trending  or already KK lower makuuchi rikishi like Nishikifuji, Takanoshō, Daishōhō, Kotoekō, and Kinbōzan.

Makuuchi/jūryō

O	5-7	Myogiryu	M10
3	2-10	Azumaryu	M11
			M12	Takarafuji	5-7	1
			M13
			M14	Bushozan	4-8	3
			M15	Oho	6-6	1
			M16	Tsurugisho	6-6	2
2	6-6	Mitoryu	M17
O	10-2	Asanoyama	J1	Tohakuryu	6-6	2
			J2
O	11-1	Ichinojo	J3	Shonannoumi	6-6	3
			J4
			J5	Enho	7-5	3
2	9-3	Gonoyama	J6

 

Demotion queue: Azumaryū, Bushōzan, Mitoryū, Tsurugishō
Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Ichinojō, Tōhakuryū, Gōnoyama

Not much has changed here, other than Gōnoyama leapfrogging Shōnnanoumi in the promotion queue. Takarafuji and Ōhō move towards safety, and while Azumaryū won today to avoid sealing his fate early, he needs to continue winning. The same can be said of Bushōzan, especially since there's two very strong promotion cases in upper jūryō that will make any borderline makuuchi record suspect. My guess is that at least one demotion will crystallise tomorrow, if not two, but Gōnoyama is probably going to have to wait one more basho to try and make his makuuchi debut.

Jūryō/makushita

1	4-8	Tsushimanada	J9
2	4-8	Kotokuzan	J10
2	4-8	Shimanoumi	J11
3	4-8	Tochimusashi	J12
1	6-6	Tamashoho	J13	Tomokaze	7-5	O
X	4-8	Tokushoryu	J14
			Ms1
~	4-3	Fujiseiun	Ms2	Chiyosakae	5-1	O
			Ms3	Kawazoe	4-2	~

 

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Shimanoumi, Kōtokuzan
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Kawazoe (with a win), Fujiseiun, Kawazoe (with a loss)

Yesterday: "In the (misquoted) words of Jamie Hyneman, "they just keep winnin', y'know?""

Irony as she is writ, as all those maligned rikishi lost today. ALL, and I mean all, 4-8 records in jūryō are here, and they were all produced today. We now definitely lose Tokushōryū to makushita again, and that makes space for Chiyosakae. Tochimusashi will make one more space if he loses tomorrow, and that is also when we get to see whether Kawazoe wins to go ahead of Fujiseiun in the promotion queue, per Sakura's one example from Aki 1990. It'll be a moot issue if more spaces clear up, but we might get another data point to go with Aki 1990 if not.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 412]

Thanks as always, great resume.

There's a typo to correct, though (I'm saying that since everyone is a Grammar Nazi here lately): Kiribayama is obviously 28/33 (8-11-9) and not 20/33 (which would constitute a rather weak Ozeki promotion case, isn't it?).

Edited March 23, 2023 by Hankegami

[Yamanashi 3,724]

Just now, Hankegami said:

Thanks as always, great resume.

There's a typo to correct, though (I'm saying that since everyone's is a Grammar Nazi here lately): Kiribayama is obviously 29/33 and not 20/33 (which would constitute a rather weak Ozeki promotion case, isn't it?).

[Gee, I was about to correct your grammar mistake, but nobody wants to be a Nazi!]

[Hankegami 412]

1 minute ago, Yamanashi said:

[Gee, I was about to correct your grammar mistake, but nobody wants to be a Nazi!]

An actual grammar mistake, or that 29/33 I corrected in the meanwhile? Because you know, I keep convincing myself that Kiribayama posted a 9-6 in Kyushu.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

4 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

An actual grammar mistake, or that 29/33 I corrected in the meanwhile? Because you know, I keep convincing myself that Kiribayama posted a 9-6 in Kyushu.

Alright, everyone agrees he asked first: it should be "everyone is a Grammar Nazi".  Now if you'll excuse me, I have an Oberfüher meeting to attend ...

[Gurowake 3,915]

45 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Daieishō takes on Meisei(???)

There's not really any standout maegashira other than Midorifuji, and Meisei was next in line and not yet MK when the pairings were drawn.  Daieisho had faced people below Meisei previously simply because Meisei's card had been booked against higher-ranked sanyaku.  Midorifuji looks likely for day 14 since it looks like they reserved the requisite spots for the sanyaku soriibumi which he'll be in.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Sakura 1,472]

I'd like to point out that Daieisho and Tobizaru are the same stable so couldn't meet anyway.

[Sakura 1,472]

49 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Kiribayama is obviously 28/33 (8-11-9) and not 20/33 (which would constitute a rather weak Ozeki promotion case, isn't it?).

I think the point being made is that Kiribayama is not being considered (by Seiyashi) for promotion after this basho so the 20/33 is the starting point for the run into next basho as it currently stands. Of course, if he wins out and takes the yusho at 12-3 this basho he'll have 31/33 ending JY-Y. Would that be enough for an Ozeki promotion now? I don't know. 

[Hankegami 412]

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

I think the point being made is that Kiribayama is not being considered (by Seiyashi) for promotion after this basho so the 20/33 is the starting point for the run into next basho as it currently stands. Of course, if he wins out and takes the yusho at 12-3 this basho he'll have 31/33 ending JY-Y. Would that be enough for an Ozeki promotion now? I don't know. 

Ok, then I misinterpreted things. Sorry, @Seiyashi. Anyway, I think that a 12-3Y or perhaps just a 12-3D could work in this specific conjuncture. We argued in several topics that the NSK is likely on thorns for the current Y/O situation, and are looking out for some backup. A 31/33 case with a yusho would be decent enough for this time alone. Anyway, much better than waiting for Takakeisho to fail clearing kadoban, or Terunofuji to retire, and therefore being forced to give the rank to the first Sekiwake at hand no matter his total result over the last three basho.

Of course, if Kiribayama drops one more in the last three days, we're back to square one.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Hankegami

[Ripe 70]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

I think the point being made is that Kiribayama is not being considered (by Seiyashi) for promotion after this basho so the 20/33 is the starting point for the run into next basho as it currently stands. Of course, if he wins out and takes the yusho at 12-3 this basho he'll have 31/33 ending JY-Y. Would that be enough for an Ozeki promotion now? I don't know. 

It's hard to say. Going 9-10-12J wasn't enough for Tochiazuma in 2001 or for Harumafuji in 2008  and all of those were from Sekiwake... but in both of those cases there were 2Y and 4O on the banzuke. Now we have 1Y and 1O. And both of them are injured and it's a question of whether they'll be available next basho and if they are available in what condition they'll be. There is a real possibility that they could end up with single Yokozuna and no Ozeki on the banzuke in Nagoya.

So they might feel pressured to promote someone who is a marginal case that would never be promoted under normal circumstances...

Edited March 23, 2023 by Ripe

[Sakura 1,472]

1 hour ago, Ripe said:

There is a real possibility that they could end up with single Yokozuna and no Ozeki on the banzuke in Nagoya.

So they might feel pressured to promote someone who is a marginal case that would never be promoted under normal circumstances...

The banzuke isn't allowed to have a single rikishi ranked Y/O, so at that point they'd have to promote the best available. 

Whether or not Kiribayama gets an Ozeki promotion now, rests on him winning out. I'd be astonished is they accepted anything less. That being said, Kiribayama winning out is far from a certainty.

If, and it's a big if, he does win out then his results would be 8-11J-12... which could be seen as a good improvement is his scores and that may have some weight. On the other hand the don't need to promote anyone now, so I can certainly seeing them not making that move.

Personally, I'm inclined to believe we won't see any new Ozeki on the banzuke next time around. 

[Reonito 1,335]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Tochimusashi will make one more space if he loses tomorrow, and that is also when we get to see whether Kawazoe wins to go ahead of Fujiseiun in the promotion queue, per Sakura's one example from Aki 1990. It'll be a moot issue if more spaces clear up, but we might get another data point to go with Aki 1990 if not.

They've got Tokihayate trying to push down Tochimusashi tomorrow; we'll probably see Kawazoe matched up with the most "on the bubble" incumbent on Day 14. Also, while they're probably safe by virtue of their rank, Chiyomaru still needs a win by the numbers, as does Daiamami.

[Reonito 1,335]

I don't understand the numbers being cited for Kiribayama: he's either 11+9 = 20 out of 15 + 12 = 27, with a chance to go 23/30, or 8+11+9 = 28 out of 42, with a chance to go 31/45.

[Reonito 1,335]

The biggest barrier to the 6-sekiwake dream is Waka vs. Koto tomorrow; the loser would need to win his final two to get to 8 or 11, respectively.

[Kashunowaka 300]

29 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I don't understand the numbers being cited for Kiribayama: he's either 11+9 = 20 out of 15 + 12 = 27, with a chance to go 23/30, or 8+11+9 = 28 out of 42, with a chance to go 31/45.

I read 20/33 as "currently at 20 wins out of the required 33 in three basho" and it makes perfect sense to me.

[Reonito 1,335]

14 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I read 20/33 as "currently at 20 wins out of the required 33 in three basho" and it makes perfect sense to me.

Ah, that makes sense, though 33 is just a convenient guideline.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

The banzuke isn't allowed to have a single rikishi ranked Y/O, so at that point they'd have to promote the best available. 

Whether or not Kiribayama gets an Ozeki promotion now, rests on him winning out. I'd be astonished is they accepted anything less. That being said, Kiribayama winning out is far from a certainty.

If, and it's a big if, he does win out then his results would be 8-11J-12... which could be seen as a good improvement is his scores and that may have some weight. On the other hand the don't need to promote anyone now, so I can certainly seeing them not making that move.

Personally, I'm inclined to believe we won't see any new Ozeki on the banzuke next time around. 

The choke point is not next basho, it's Nagoya; next basho Takakeisho is a kadoban Ozeki.  If he fails to make 8, he's a Sekiwake for Nagoya and we only have Terunofuji.  [Strangely, the person on Earth with the most job security is Terunofuji.  Not only does he not have to enter the basho, but he could have a leg fall off and they wouldn't accept his intai papers!]

[Akinomaki 39,771]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

The banzuke isn't allowed to have a single rikishi ranked Y/O, so at that point they'd have to promote the best available. 

Whether or not Kiribayama gets an Ozeki promotion now, rests on him winning out. I'd be astonished is they accepted anything less. That being said, Kiribayama winning out is far from a certainty.

I think they'll have several more with a decent record to pick from after next basho, should Takakeisho fail to clear the kadoban then, all komusubi now, but close to sekiwake - they are in no hurry now

Daieisho is also on 20 wins, one win more he's sekiwake and the initial basho having been as M1 can be ignored

Wakamotoharu is cited as ozeki prospect for a while now, currently at 18 wins, stable upward trend, 38 wins the last 4 basho, he needs 2 wins more for sekiwake

The one they'll hope for is Kotonowaka, also on an upward trend, getting stronger and better each basho, currently at 17 wins: a jun yusho with 11 or 12 this time and a yusho next time would seal it, also 2 wins more for sekiwake

Edited March 23, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Sakura 1,472]

17 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

I think they'll have several more with a decent record to pick from after next basho, should Takakeisho fail to clear the kadoban then, all komusubi now, but close to sekiwake - they are in no hurry now

I agree. I'd be surprised if anyone got promoted now, but as you say there should be some decent prospects next basho anyway.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

The choke point is not next basho, it's Nagoya; next basho Takakeisho is a kadoban Ozeki.  If he fails to make 8, he's a Sekiwake for Nagoya and we only have Terunofuji.  [Strangely, the person on Earth with the most job security is Terunofuji.  Not only does he not have to enter the basho, but he could have a leg fall off and they wouldn't accept his intai papers!]

The risk with that approach is if none of the sekiwake do well enough in May to be promotable even by very relaxed standards ... but they'll probably take that chance over a soft promotion now. And perhaps err on the side of more sekiwake on the banzuke.

[Ripe 70]

43 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

I think they'll have several more with a decent record to pick from after next basho, should Takakeisho fail to clear the kadoban then, all komusubi now, but close to sekiwake - they are in no hurry now

Daieisho is also on 20 wins, one win more he's sekiwake and the initial basho having been as M1 can be ignored

Wakamotoharu is cited as ozeki prospect for a while now, currently at 18 wins, stable upward trend, 38 wins the last 4 basho, he needs 2 wins more for sekiwake

The one they'll hope for is Kotonowaka, also on an upward trend, getting stronger and better each basho, currently at 17 wins: a jun yusho with 11 or 12 this time and a yusho next time would seal it, also 2 wins more for sekiwake

 

24 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I agree. I'd be surprised if anyone got promoted now, but as you say there should be some decent prospects next basho anyway.

Yes, there should be decent prospects next basho... but there is no guarantees that there will be. Consider previous basho where you had four Sekiwake... of the two that ended up KK, can you say that either would deserve promotion to Ozeki?

[Reonito 1,335]

14 minutes ago, Ripe said:

 

Yes, there should be decent prospects next basho... but there is no guarantees that there will be. Consider previous basho where you had four Sekiwake... of the two that ended up KK, can you say that either would deserve promotion to Ozeki?

right, there are no modern promotions from less than double-digit wins at S (even Kitanofuji was 8-10-10).