Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

[Reonito 1,294]

6 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

This isn't going to be a good basho for new/returning sekitori fans. Chiyosakae/Tokushoryu swap aside, Day 11 was an unmitigated disaster for the hopefuls and a boon for the incumbents.

Upper Makushita is a little thin this time around; I'm hoping Kawazoe can pull it off, but it was hard to get excited about anyone else from the beginning.

[Reonito 1,294]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Shiden lost to Ryūō to significantly dent, if not almost entirely eliminate, his hopes of promotion to jūryō.

I'd say entirely eliminate.

[Sakura 1,456]

They could do Kiyonoumi vs Mishima to settle one of the divisions on Day 13

[Reonito 1,294]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

but we're most likely going to have seven lower sanyaku next basho again, although whether it's 4S3K or 3S4K remains to be seen

I'm not ruling out six, or (less likely) five

[Seiyashi 4,068]

A lot has to go wrong for it to be five, although it would be entirely in keeping with the humdrum nature of this basho. Are there even enough losses to go around WTK, Tobizaru and Midorifuji to get there?

[Reonito 1,294]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Fujiseiun and Kawazoe will want to win to strengthen their promotion cases vis-a-vis each other

Fujiseiun must beat Tamashoho tomorrow or he's out. If he wins, and so does Kawazoe, how do we feel about 4-3 at Ms2e vs. 5-2 at Ms3w?

[Sakura 1,456]

16 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Fujiseiun must beat Tamashoho tomorrow or he's out. If he wins, and so does Kawazoe, how do we feel about 4-3 at Ms2e vs. 5-2 at Ms3w?

There aren't many cases of this exact sitaution. Mostly when the Ms3w gets a 5-2 and a Ms2e gets a 4-3 they both get promoted, or both don't get promoted. The only example I found (though I didn't look earlier than 1984) was Aki 1990 where the Ms3w was promoted and the Ms2e wasn't. I don't think one example from back then tells us much.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Sakura

[Oshirokita 173]

They don't have to promote Midorifuji to Sanyaku. Unless he gets the yusho, I think he goes to M1 despite having "the numbers".

[Reonito 1,294]

So if WTK gets to 8 and all 3 komusubi get to 11, could we see 6 sekiwake?!

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

A lot has to go wrong for it to be five, although it would be entirely in keeping with the humdrum nature of this basho. Are there even enough losses to go around WTK, Tobizaru and Midorifuji to get there?

For sure. Tobi only has to lose one. Midori could finish 2-2 and only get pushed to M1, but presumably his remaining fights after Waka are against winning sanyaku members, so he could get beat in all of those. And Waka might get a save-his-ass matchup or two if he falters again, but the matches are there for him to drop if he insists on it.

[Koorifuu 858]

47 minutes ago, Reonito said:

So if WTK gets to 8 and all 3 komusubi get to 11, could we see 6 sekiwake?!

Been thinking about this for a couple of days. What a nightmare that'd be for GTB's admins, haha.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

So if WTK gets to 8 and all 3 komusubi get to 11, could we see 6 sekiwake?!

Is 11 the magic number that guarantees promotion?

[Ripe 65]

21 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Is 11 the magic number that guarantees promotion?

Well, with the exception of Maedayama in 1938 who got promoted straight to Ozeki, every Komusubi who managed to get 11 wins was promoted to Sekiwake next basho, forcing additional spots as needed... that said, most Sekiwake rikishi in single basho was 5 during 1972 Nagoya when both Kaiketsu and Takanohana I forced the promotion from Komusubi with 11 wins.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

1 minute ago, Ripe said:

Well, with the exception of Maedayama in 1938 who got promoted straight to Ozeki, every Komusubi who managed to get 11 wins was promoted to Sekiwake next basho, forcing additional spots as needed... that said, most Sekiwake rikishi in single basho was 5 during 1972 Nagoya when both Kaiketsu and Takanohana I forced the promotion from Komusubi with 11 wins.

Would 10 wins be considered enough to force an additional Sekiwake spot? 

[Ripe 65]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Would 10 wins be considered enough to force an additional Sekiwake spot? 

No, or at least it wasn't in last 20 years or so...

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

13 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Well, with the exception of Maedayama in 1938 who got promoted straight to Ozeki, every Komusubi who managed to get 11 wins was promoted to Sekiwake next basho, forcing additional spots as needed... that said, most Sekiwake rikishi in single basho was 5 during 1972 Nagoya when both Kaiketsu and Takanohana I forced the promotion from Komusubi with 11 wins.

This is the norm, but I wager that in the unlikely event Waka Prime goes 8-7 and Waka Spare, Koto, and Daieisho all hit 11, if no one clearly needs to be promoted from maegashira to komusubi, we might see Koto and Daieisho kept at K. ("Clearly needs" = 9+ for Shodai and Abi, 12+ for Midori, IMO.)

[Reonito 1,294]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This is the norm, but I wager that in the unlikely event Waka Prime goes 8-7 and Waka Spare, Koto, and Daieisho all hit 11, if no one clearly needs to be promoted from maegashira to komusubi, we might see Koto and Daieisho kept at K. ("Clearly needs" = 9+ for Shodai and Abi, 12+ for Midori, IMO.)

Given the precedent of 5 @Ripe cited above, there's no reason to think they'd balk at 6; I feel like K11+ -> S is almost a rule.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

Just now, Reonito said:

Given the precedent of 5 @Ripe cited above, there's no reason to think they'd balk at 6; I feel like K11+ -> S is almost a rule.

The thing that brings me up slightly short is that I'm not convinced they're willing to make the banzuke look that unbalanced, or at least not if the incoming komusubi would be unusual or shaky options at best under most circumstances. But I'm not going to think much more about it unless we get to day 15 and it's still possible. Just imagine if Kotoshoho, of all people, wound up being viewed as the guy who short-circuited Waka's sekiwake stint.

[Reonito 1,294]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

The thing that brings me up slightly short is that I'm not convinced they're willing to make the banzuke look that unbalanced, or at least not if the incoming komusubi would be unusual or shaky options at best under most circumstances. But I'm not going to think much more about it unless we get to day 15 and it's still possible.

10-5 M5 -> K is certainly earned if a slot opens. We'll see if anyone else can join Midori. But yeah, I only bring this up now while it's still possible because it's the sort of very rare thing that's fun to think about but rather unlikely to happen.

[Ripe 65]

23 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

The thing that brings me up slightly short is that I'm not convinced they're willing to make the banzuke look that unbalanced, or at least not if the incoming komusubi would be unusual or shaky options at best under most circumstances. But I'm not going to think much more about it unless we get to day 15 and it's still possible. Just imagine if Kotoshoho, of all people, wound up being viewed as the guy who short-circuited Waka's sekiwake stint.

Well, in that example from 1972 they went from 4S3K to 5S2K... one of the Sekiwake went 7-8 and dropped to Komusubi while remaining Komusubi dropped out with 6-9 and was replaced by 9-6 M1e.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

4 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Well, in that example from 1972 they went from 4S3K to 5S2K... one of the Sekiwake went 7-8 and dropped to Komusubi while remaining Komusubi dropped out with 6-9 and was replaced by 9-6 M1e.

1972 is too early to mean much. They could have run a tournament that matched this one so precisely it looked like Nostradamus scripted the whole thing and I still wouldn't take any precedents from it.

[Yamanashi 3,669]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It's rare that lower sanyaku performs this well

Well, there is no upper san'yaku, so that helps.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Yamanashi

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Lower jūryō is always a bloody enigma. They were doing so well for two days straight, then they all lost the plot today and went 4-8.

There might be hope yet for Fujiseiun and Kawazoe.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Koorifuu 858]

Another situation that's been brought up in another topic, weeks/months ago...

No ozeki was promoted from komusubi or lower in about 90 years. It seems that exclusively promoting sekiwake might be an unwritten rule, therefore forcing promotions for K/M who have gone through with 2/3 of their runs. That, of course, tends to overlap with the "11 wins to force a slot" unwritten condition so it's not as noticeable.

In that situation, everyone on a decently valid ozeki run would have to be a sekiwake - perhaps a 10-10 Daiesho would force a slot on that basis.

EDIT: Thanks @Ripe for pointing out that my hyperbole made me factually wrong. :P

Edited March 23, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Ripe 65]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Another situation that's been brought up in another topic, weeks/months ago...

No ozeki was ever promoted from komusubi or lower. It seems that exclusively promoting sekiwake might be an unwritten rule, therefore forcing promotions for K/M who have gone through with 2/3 of their runs. That, of course, tends to overlap with the "11 wins to force a slot" unwritten condition so it's not as noticeable.

In that situation, everyone on a decently valid ozeki run would have to be a sekiwake - perhaps a 10-10 Daiesho would force a slot on that basis.

39th Yokozuna Maedayama was promoted from Komusubi straight to Ozeki following his 11-2J in his first basho as Komusubi... granted, that was in 1938 but he is still the only Yokozuna who never held Sekiwake rank.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Ripe
It was a 13 bout basho... so of course he was 11-2