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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

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Yūshō arasoi, Day 9

Makuuchi
9-0: M5w Midorifuji
8-1: K2e Daieishō
7-2: K1w Kotonowaka, M6e Endō, M7w Takayasu

This is a remarkably slim arasoi this early in the basho, although we have no less than 9 rikishi waiting to get their share of the action if unlikely leader M5w Midorifuji slips up. In his wins so far, Midorifuji has looked like he's got 30 more kilos without any corresponding agility loss, although it must be said that his opposition thus far is at best middling. Of his opponents, only Endō and Takayasu are anywhere near a KK, whereas the rest are 50-50 or worse, not to mention all of them being hiramaku opposition on average.

That should change fairly soon, since tomorrow, he meets his first ostensible sanyaku opposition in Tobizaru. As mentioned in the GKA thread, with Terunofuji and Takakeishō out of the basho, Midorifuji is just high enough that he will be part of the joi for matchmaking, but his record might have earned him a sanyaku schedule from about here on out anyway. Daieishō is another one on relative fire this basho, and should be itching to get his hands on the Isegahama man to try and secure his second yūshō. The group at 2 behind all lack yūshō experience, and only Kotonowaka has yet to fight Midorifuji, so Endō and Takayasu must both keep winning and hope Midorifuji gets a rude awakening against the sanyaku.

Jūryō
8-1: J1e Asanoyama, J3e Ichinojō, J14w Ochiai
7-2: J6e Gōnoyama
6-3: J3w Shonnanoumi, J5w Enhō, J9w Hakuyōzan, J11w Kitanowaka, J12w Takakentō

In contrast to makuuchi, jūryō's arasoi (or at least its leaders) should surprise absolutely no one. Perhaps the only thing surprising about the three leaders is that none of them are 9-0 at this point. Asanoyama and Ichinojō have already fought but Ochiai has been mainly cleaning house in lower jūryō, so barring an exacerbation of Ochiai's elbow injury, at least one matchup between either of the sanyaku-class rikishi and Ochiai is yet to come. That match is probably the highlight bout of the basho in providing the first real test of Ochiai's ability, and an upset win for the shin-jūryō, while not entirely out of the realm of possibility, would certainly send hopes for his future ceiling skyrocketing. It's much more likely that it'll be his first reality check, but even then, Ochiai is still on course to have a double-digit record, which should put him on a trajectory to makuuchi by Nagoya if nothing goes wrong.

Lower divisions
Makushita:
Ms6e Shiden (Kise), Ms26e Ryūō (Nishonoseki), Ms27w Kayō (Nishonoseki), Ms50e Kaizen (Asakayama)
Sandanme: Sd8e Obara (Asakayama), Sd24w Tōshunryū (Tamanoi), Sd35e Shōsei (Sakaigawa), Sd65e Daiseizan (Arashio), Sd80e Kiyonoumi (Tamanoi)
Jonidan: Jd3w Kisenoumi (Kise), Jd19w Amao (Nishonoseki), Jd40w Mishima (Naruto), Jd52w Nishikinoryū (Asahiyama), Jd60w Suguro (Fujishima), Jd87e Takashōki (Tokiwayama)
Jonokuchi: Jk11w Asahakuryū (Takasago), Jk13e Wakaikari (Isenoumi)

Perhaps the biggest upset in makushita is Shiden's defeat of Kawazoe. That denied one of Hakuhō's proteges a chance at sealing jūryō promotion in emphatic fashion with a yūshō, although he is doing well enough, is ranked high enough, and has the banzuke luck of enough potentially disastrous records in lower jūryō that his promotion is more likely than not. Nishonoseki capitalises on Miyagino's slip to send two through to the makushita semifinals, where thanks to dōbeya rules, they will avoid each other and double their chances of bringing home some yūshō honours to ex-Kisenosato in Ibaraki. Kayō must be considered the favourite here, being the youngest by a huge margin whereas his competitors are all makushita journeymen on a hot streak. That said, Shiden might have the extra incentive of jūryō promotion in his favour, being within the extended promotion range.

There's another matchup ruled out in sandanme due to dōbeya rules, with Tamanoi providing the offending pair this time. The favourites here must be Tōshunryū and Daiseizan, both relatively new rikishi. Daiseizan however looks to be the toriteki equivalent of Takayasu: he went 6-1 thrice out of maezumo, then sat out two basho injured, then went 6-1 again. Of his four 6-1 records, three of them involved a final day loss (and hence the yūshō with it). Fifth time lucky, or jinx? You decide.

The jonidan favourite should be Suguro, coming back after three basho out and dropping below his entry rank of Sd100TD. Mishima and Amao are also returning from injury, whereas the other three are jonidan journeymen, so Suguro, Mishima, and Amao should be the ones making it through in round 6. Finally, down in jonokuchi, Asahakuryū and Wakaikari are both having blazing debuts.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 9

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X 0-0-9 Terunofuji YO      
      O Takakeishō 3-4-2 X
4 4-5 Wakatakakage S Hōshōryū 6-3 2
2 6-3 Kiribayama S      
2 6-3 Wakamotoharu K Kotonowaka 7-2 1
O 8-1 Daieishō K Tobizaru 4-5 4
X 1-8 Tamawashi M1 Shōdai 6-3 2
4 5-4 Abi M2 Ryūden 1-8 X
5 4-5 Mitakeumi M3 Nishikigi 2-7 X
6 4-5 Ōnoshō M4 Meisei 4-5 6
X 1-8 Kotoshōhō M5 Midorifuji 9-0 1
4 7-2 Endō M6 Sadanoumi 2-7 X
6 5-4 Hokutofuji M7 Takayasu 7-2 4

Demotion queue: Tobizaru, Wakatakakage, Wakamotoharu, Kotonowaka
Promotion queue: Midorifuji, Shōdai, Abi, Endō

Quite a subdued sanyaku-joi exchange picture this time, with minimal impending movement so far and most of the incumbents looking on track to hold rank. The front-runners to fall are Tobizaru and Wakatakakage, who are on the wrong side of 50-50 and need to start, or keep, winning. Waiting to pounce are Midorifuji and Shōdai; the former is possibly just one win away from making a sanyaku debut (although more wins wouldn't hurt), and Shōdai is 2 wins away from re-entering sanyaku. In truth, both the promotion and demotion queues are maybe about 2 long at present; Wakamotoharu and Kotonowaka are very long shots for demotion, and while Abi is high enough to stand a chance with a 9-6 or better, Endō is so far down that he's almost only in the queue for formality's sake.

Makuuchi/jūryō

O 3-6 Ichiyamamoto M8 Ura 5-4 O
O 4-5 Aoiyama M9 Hiradoumi 4-5 O
1 4-5 Myōgiryū M10 Nishikifuji 6-3 O
5 0-9 Azumaryū M11 Takanoshō 6-3 O
2 3-6 Kagayaki M12 Takarafuji 2-7 4
1 5-4 Daishōhō M13 Kotoekō 6-3 O
O 6-3 Kinbōzan M14 Bushōzan 4-5 3
2 5-4 Hokuseihō M15 Ōhō 4-5 3
1 6-3 Chiyoshōma M16 Tsurugishō 5-4 3
4 4-5 Mitoryū M17      
O 8-1 Asanoyama J1 Tōhakuryū 4-5 4
X 2-7 Chiyonokuni J2 Tochinoshin 3-6 6
1 8-1 Ichinojō J3 Shōnannoumi 6-3 3
X 1-8 Chiyomaru J4 Ōshōma 3-6 X
6 4-5 Rōga J5 Enhō 6-3 4
4 7-2 Gōnoyama J6 Daiamami 2-7 X
6 5-4 Akua J7 Shimazuumi 4-5 X

Demotion queue: Azumaryū, Mitoryū, Takarafuji, Tsurugishō
Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Ichinojō, Shōnannoumi, Tōhakuryū

Poor Azumaryū: he had a good start to the year, making his first ever makuuchi KK and celebrating his marriage, but it all seems to have gone downhill from there. He needs 5 wins from 6 to stay, but at the rate he's been going, it's highly doubtful he'll get there. Adding to his woes is an almost surefire promotion from a KK J1e Asanoyama, with Ichinojō close behind; Azumaryū needs to play outrun the bear with Mitoryū and Ōhō, neither of whom are doing anywhere near as badly as he is.  

Outside of Asanoyama and Ichinojō (Ochiai, at the very bottom of jūryō with one loss, is exceedingly unlikely to be promoted even if he wins out), hardly anywone else is battering down the makuuchi door. Tōhakuryū is on the wrong side of 50-50 at the moment but could still turn it around. The battered J2 veterans of Chiyonokuni and Tochinoshin are lucky to slow their fall down the banzuke, whereas Shōnannoumi needs quite a few more wins to start the conversation. Lastly, a 7-2 J6 Gōnoyama could be a promotion dark horse, especially if he shows up the yūshō race in a big way.

Jūryō/makushita

O 5-4 Hidenoumi J8 Atamifuji 5-4 O
2 3-6 Tsushimanada J9 Hakuyōzan 6-3 O
4 2-7 Kōtokuzan J10 Churanoumi 5-4 1
4 2-7 Shimanoumi J11 Kitanowaka 6-3 O
5 2-7 Tochimusashi J12 Takakentō 6-3 1
2 5-4 Tamashōhō J13 Tomokaze 5-4 2
5 3-6 Tokushōryū J14 Ochiai 8-1 O
2 2-3 Tsukahara Ms1 Terutsuyoshi 1-4 X
2 3-2 Fujiseiun Ms2 Chiyosakae 4-1 1
X 2-3 Tokihayate Ms3 Kawazoe 4-1 1
X 1-4 Mineyaiba Ms4 Kaishō 2-3 X
2 3-2 Chiyonoumi Ms5 Tochikamiyama 2-3 X
2 5-0 Shiden Ms6 Hayatefuji 3-2 X

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Shimanoumi, Kōtokuzan
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Kawazoe, Tsukahara, Fujiseiun, Shiden?

There's a whole death row of 2-7s from J10-J12 that might provide hope to the makushita joi, opening as many as 4 slots in lower jūryō, although it's a 3-6 Tokushōryū who leads that demotion queue. Waiting outside the pearly gates is ex-sekitori Chiyosakae followed by Kawazoe, although Shiden might yet barge through with a 7-0 and the makushita yūshō. Tsukahara is high enough that winning out will be enough, while Fujiseiun probably needs to win out and pray for favourable results all round for a promotion this time.

Edited by Seiyashi
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I would suggest that because of the imbalance of M17, Tsurugisho needs to get to 8, Bushozan to 7 and Takarafuji to 6 to meet their targets.

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1 minute ago, Sakura said:

I would suggest that because of the imbalance of M17, Tsurugisho needs to get to 8, Bushozan to 7 and Takarafuji to 6 to meet their targets.

Thanks for the rapid response. I was debating whether to factor the half M17 rank in, but this clears that up. Edits in progress.

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Your comment about Wakatakakage is a bit misleading, he’s on a four win streak after starting 0-5. In his case he needs to continue winning

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5 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Your comment about Wakatakakage is a bit misleading, he’s on a four win streak after starting 0-5. In his case he needs to continue winning

Thanks for catching that. Fixed. 

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I don't know if I would say Shonnanoumi needs "quite a few more wins" to consider him for promotion. Maybe that's more correct in the context that it doesn't look like many guys are going to give up their spots easily. But he only needs a 3-3 finish for nine wins and for three guys to drop (two for Asa and Ichi and then a third for him, unless someone passes him by going up). As long as Mitoryu doesn't miracle a KK—and it's hard to see that happening considering he's already fought his most vulnerable competition—it seems like things would have to play out in a very particular way to deny him.

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I'd say to my mind 3 is definitely quite a few more, especially relative to Asa and Ichi, who have already either done enough or are just one win away. And that's even before getting into the realm of clocking a good record that would justify forcing down a makuuchi incumbent, in which he certainly needs more than 3 to start that conversation in the absence of a surprise retirement (Takarafuji?) or a lower makuuchi meltdown. 

Edited by Seiyashi

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11 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I'd say to my mind 3 is definitely quite a few more, especially relative to Asa and Ichi, who have already either done enough or are just one win away. And that's even before getting into the realm of clocking a good record that would justify forcing down a makuuchi incumbent, in which he certainly needs more than 3 to start that conversation in the absence of a surprise retirement (Takarafuji?) or a lower makuuchi meltdown. 

Honestly, I don't think anyone is getting forced down if they hit their target, no matter the strength of the juryo man's claim.

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11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Honestly, I don't think anyone is getting forced down if they hit their target, no matter the strength of the juryo man's claim.

I meant in the case of the borderline i.e. demotable records. Clearly a safe record by the numbers won't be demoted from makuuchi, but what about someone who misses it by 1 win? Does a 9-6 J3w go up at the expense of e.g. a 7-8 M16w on the current banzuke? I agree not likely, and a 10-5/11-4 is more justifiable for a forcing down, but we've also definitely had this conversation a lot every time this topic comes up. It's to the point where I'm thinking about adding a short explanation to the symbols so we have a broader working base of definitions as to what is borderline and who gets forced where in favour of what record.

Although that said, note to self to really start taking pains in precision of language. Ths is a tough crowd, I didn't expect to have to apply the same rigour in full to a recreational pursuit as I do my day job (Laughing...)

Edited by Seiyashi
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20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I'd say to my mind 3 is definitely quite a few more, especially relative to Asa and Ichi, who have already either done enough or are just one win away. And that's even before getting into the realm of clocking a good record that would justify forcing down a makuuchi incumbent, in which he certainly needs more than 3 to start that conversation in the absence of a surprise retirement (Takarafuji?) or a lower makuuchi meltdown. 

The way I've always learned it, "a few" is three, and thus "quite a few" is inherently more. I took it to mean at least four, maybe five.

Maybe he will need that many! I agree with Reo that no one is getting forced down if the math allows them to stay in makuuchi unless there's absolutely no choice (e.g. somehow only one guy mathematically gets demoted but Asa and Ichi are obviously coming up). But I'm saying I would be very surprised if only two guys mathematically drop. Azumaryu's on the bullet train to juryo, and even a 3-3 finish would put Takarafuji below the line. Like I said, Mitoryu's gone through the softest competition available, and even if he continues to womp on Tohakuryu, he still has to finish 3-2 after that to stay up. I think Oho's going to hang, and Chiyoshoma can probably squeeze out at least two more wins, but Tsurugisho is also vulnerable. Plus Kagayaki and Bushozan...

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I meant in the case of the borderline i.e. demotable records. Clearly a safe record by the numbers won't be demoted from makuuchi, but what about someone who misses it by 1 win? Does a 9-6 J3w go up at the expense of e.g. a 7-8 M16w on the current banzuke? I agree not likely, and a 10-5/11-4 is more justifiable for a forcing down, but we've also definitely had this conversation a lot every time this topic comes up.

There's another potential wrinkle in this: we don't know if what they did after last basho, where there was zero rank preference given to those who were already in makuuchi over the juryo promotees, is a new way of doing things or a one-off. I think it's entirely plausible that they might have been hellbent on shoving Oho down his full demotion and that forced everyone else into place, but there's still a possibility that they're taking this new approach, which would be potentially very beneficial to a 9-6 Shonannoumi.

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5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Although that said, note to self to really start taking pains in precision of language. Ths is a tough crowd, I didn't expect to have to apply the same rigour in full to a recreational pursuit as I do my day job 

Did you not read the T&Cs when you took on this role?

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6 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Did you not read the T&Cs when you took on this role?

There were T&Cs????

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Yūshō arasoi, Day 10

Makuuchi
10-0: M5w Midorifuji
8-2: K1w Kotonowaka, K2e Daieishō, M6e Endō
7-3: S1w Hōshōryū, S2e Kiribayama, K1e Wakamotoharu, M7w Takayasu, M14e Kinbōzan, M16e Chiyoshōma

Midorifuji cements a 2-win lead in some style, dispatching Tobizaru by the rare kimarite waridashi (bicep force out). Daieishō fails to keep pace, losing to Hōshōryū, who leads the entire motley crew at 3 behind. Kotonowaka and Endō win today to secure their KK, although their yūshō hopes are (alongside Daieishō) entirely in Midorifuji's hands now. It is somewhat eerily a year since Takayasu went 10-0 and failed to get the yūshō, and only time will tell if Midorifuji joins him in holding that dubious record of being the one rikishi to go 10-0, complete the basho, and still fail to win the yūshō.

After dispatching his first komusubi, Midorifuji will face KK-seeking Wakamotoharu tomorrow, with presumably the sekiwake to follow in an attempt to slow down his yūshō momentum. Other intra-arasoi pairings are: Daieishō takes on Takayasu, while Hōshōryū takes on Endō. Given Midorifuji's lead, even a loss tomorrow won't change the arasoi's relative rankings, but it might introduce a chink of doubt into Midorifuji's performance heading into the crucial final days.

Jūryō
9-1: J1e Asanoyama, J3e Ichinojō,
8-2: J6e Gōnoyama, J14w Ochiai
7-3: J9w Hakuyōzan, J11w Kitanowaka

Ochiai drops a bout today to Atamifuji, but still gets a matchup against Ichinojō tomorrow. Presumably if he wins, Asanoyama will be on the cards. Gōnoyama beat Shōnannoumi today to secure his KK and improve his slim odds at promotion, while Shōnannoumi's 6-3 colleagues from yesterday, Enhō and Takakentō, lost to fellow arasoi members Asanoyama and Hakuyōzan respectively. 

Other than Ichinojō - Ochiai, Asanoyama takes on Gōnoyama, while Hakuyōzan takes on Kitanowaka. It's entirely possible that we get a messy 4 joint leaders if the 8-2 pair prevail, but considering that the two 9-1s are sanyaku-class rikishi on a good day, it's much more likely that they open up a 2-win lead over their rivals instead. And since only one of Hakuyōzan or Kitanowaka can get their KK tomorrow, we might see two 10-1s chased by 3 8-3s. In that scenario, since Asanoyama and Ichinojō have already fought, they are on track for a playoff if they win out (or score the same result).

Edited by Seiyashi
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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 10

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X 0-0-10 Terunofuji YO      
      O Takakeishō 3-4-3 X
4 4-6 Wakatakakage S Hōshōryū 7-3 1
1 7-3 Kiribayama S      
1 7-3 Wakamotoharu K Kotonowaka 8-2 O
O 8-2 Daieishō K Tobizaru 4-6 4
      M1 Shōdai 6-4 2
4 5-5 Abi M2      
5 4-6 Mitakeumi M3      
X 4-5-1 Ōnoshō M4 Meisei 4-6 X
      M5 Midorifuji 10-0 O
3 8-2 Endō M6      
5 6-4 Hokutofuji M7 Takayasu 7-3 4

 

Demotion queue: Tobizaru, Wakatakakage, Wakamotoharu, Kiribayama
Promotion queue: Midorifuji, Shōdai, Endō, Abi

Well, Wakatakakage might have been thoroughly jinxed by the discussion about whether he needed to start winning or keep winning, as he dropped a bout to, of all people, an MK Kotoshōhō borrowing some very undisciplined, Takayasu-esque sumo. This puts him in some real danger here, needing 4 wins from 5 to hold rank and 3 to remain in sanyaku. He faces similarly-endangered Tobizaru, who doesn't have the luxury of sekiwake to cushion his fall; it's four wins or bust. 

Midorifuji is currently first in line for any sanyaku slot that might open up. A bit behind him is Shōdai, who failed to get past Endō, who in turn passes Abi after Abi lost to Kotonowaka. That said, with a lack of sanyaku vacancies, Abi and Endō are extremely unlikely to make it (unless Shōdai MKs and two spots do open in sanyaku). It's entirely possible that only one of Wakatakakage and Tobizaru fall, and Shōdai gets a marginal 8-7, which makes it justifiable to shaft him at M1e and send Midorifuji up instead.

Makuuchi/jūryō

1 4-6 Myōgiryū M10      
4 1-9 Azumaryū M11      
1 4-6 Kagayaki M12 Takarafuji 3-7 3
O 6-4 Daishōhō M13      
      M14 Bushōzan 4-6 3
1 6-4 Hokuseihō M15 Ōhō 4-6 3
O 7-3 Chiyoshōma M16 Tsurugishō 6-4 2
3 5-5 Mitoryū M17      
O 9-1 Asanoyama J1 Tōhakuryū 4-6 4
      J2 Tochinoshin 3-7 X
O 9-1 Ichinojō J3 Shōnannoumi 6-4 3
      J4      
X 4-6 Rōga J5 Enhō 6-4 4
3 8-2 Gōnoyama J6      
5 6-4 Akua J7      

 

Demotion queue: Azumaryū, Mitoryū, Ōhō, Bushōzan
Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Ichinojō, Shōnannoumi, Gōnoyama

Shōnichi isn't enough to save Azumaryū yet. Ichinojō won today to cement his case for promotion, so Azumaryū has to hope two people go in front of him and Gōnoyama or Shōnannoumi don't make cases for promotion themselves. He gets a chance to force that against Mitoryū tomorrow, although Mitoryū did win today (against Tōhakuryū, no less) to buy himself some breathing room. Mitoryū, Ōhō and Bushōzan all must win 3 from 5 to stave off demotion. Can two of them fail to do that to save Azumaryū?

Jūryō/makushita

             
2 3-7 Tsushimanada J9      
3 3-7 Kōtokuzan J10 Churanoumi 6-4 O
3 3-7 Shimanoumi J11      
4 3-7 Tochimusashi J12 Takakentō 6-4 1
2 5-5 Tamashōhō J13 Tomokaze 5-5 2
4 4-6 Tokushōryū J14      
2 2-3 Tsukahara Ms1      
2 3-2 Fujiseiun Ms2 Chiyosakae 4-1 1
      Ms3 Kawazoe 4-1 1
      Ms4      
2 3-2 Chiyonoumi Ms5      
2 5-0 Shiden Ms6      

 

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Shimanoumi, Kōtokuzan
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Kawazoe, Tsukahara, Fujiseiun, Shiden?

It's an off day for makushita, so no change in the promotion queue. Interestingly, there's no change in the demotion queue either, since all of them won to keep alive their hopes of staying in jūryō. So there's not much to be said, and we'll be back with more coverage tomorrow when we get some makushita action. There are no intra-demotion queue or intra-promotion queue matchups.

Edited by Seiyashi
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5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

There were T&Cs????

There always are for such a high-pressure yet high-paying j ... uh, LOOK, A SQUIRREL!!

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8 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Kiribayama already faced Wakamotoharu on Day 4

Ugh, and I thought I remembered my GKA working correctly. It's WTK he hasn't fought. 

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2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Ugh, and I thought I remembered my GKA working correctly. It's WTK he hasn't fought. 

Right, and that'll be on [REDACTED].

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Interestingly, there's no change in the promotion queue either, since all of them won to keep alive their hopes of staying in jūryō.

*demotion queue. 

Thanks, Seiyashi.  These threads are my favourite part of following sumo, and you're doing your best to fill Asashosakari's shoes.  They're very large, and you're doing well at it.  

Edited by Ryoshishokunin
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8 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

*demotion queue. 

Thanks, Seiyashi.  These threads are my favourite part of following sumo, and you're doing your best to fill Asashosakari's shoes.  They're very large, and you're doing well at it.  

As corny as this is going to sound, your vote of confidence means a lot.

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This isn't going to be a good basho for new/returning sekitori fans. Chiyosakae/Tokushoryu swap aside, Day 11 was an unmitigated disaster for the hopefuls and a boon for the incumbents.

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38 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

This isn't going to be a good basho for new/returning sekitori fans. Chiyosakae/Tokushoryu swap aside, Day 11 was an unmitigated disaster for the hopefuls and a boon for the incumbents.

Intra-divisional movements this basho/banzuke should be quite minimal, based on what I'm seeing so far. Things could even play out such that not even Kawazoe makes it into jūryō this time.

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Yūshō arasoi, Day 11

Makuuchi
10-1: M5w Midorifuji
9-2: K2e Daieishō
8-3: S1w Hōshōryū, S2e Kiribayama, K1e Wakamotoharu, K1w Kotonowaka, M6e Endō, M16e Chiyoshōma

It had to happen eventually. Despite a valiant effort, Midorifuji was never in control and was pushed down in relatively short order by Wakamotoharu. That said, since he had a two win cushion, he still has sole possession of the lead, chased by the rest of the sanyaku (except for Wakatakakage and Tobizaru), as well as Endō and Chiyoshōma. 

Midorifuji faces Wakatakakage tomorrow, a decision that has raised some eyebrows over in the Guess Kiribayama's Aite thread for the number of spanners in the final act's torikumi that it throws. Daieishō faces KK hunting M7e Hokutofuji, while the 8-3 crowd will thin each other out somewhat. Hōshōryū has Kiribayama, while Wakamotoharu has Endō. Kotonowaka takes MK-avoiding Meisei, while Chiyoshōma, too far down and off to be respected as a yūshō prospect by the torikumi committee, has 6-5 Takanoshō.

Jūryō
10-1: J1e Asanoyama, J3e Ichinojō, 
8-3: J6e Gōnoyama, J11w Kitanowaka, J14w Ochiai
7-4: J9w Hakuyōzan, J10w Churanoumi, J12w Takakentō

As expected, Asanoyama and Ichinojō proved too much for their opponents, who are way younger in terms of sekitori vintage and experience. Both younger sekitori gave good accounts of themselves, though, taking the initiative out of the tachiai. Ochiai was arguably in control for most of the bout, before being a bit too eager to end it and falling victim to a thrustdown nowhere near the tawara. Gōnoyama, on the other hand was a lot more haphazardly eager with gaburi-yori and gifted Asanoyama a deep hidari-uwate grip on his mawashi, which set up the uwatenage at the tawara.

With only 4 days to go, having already fought each other, and a two-win lead, Asanoyama and/or Ichinojō can eliminate the 7-4 group by day 13, and the 8-3s by day 14. Ichinojō can start that process by beating Hakuyōzan tomorrow, while Asanoyama goes up to makuuchi to bring Ōhō down a peg. Gōnoyama fights Ochiai to eliminate at least one of them from the three-loss group, while Kitanowaka has 6-5 Shimazuumi. Lastly, Churanoumi takes on ailing Chiyomaru, while Takakentō takes on MK-avoiding Tochimusashi.

Lower divisions
Makushita: 
Ms26e Ryūō (Nishonoseki), Ms50e Kaizen (Asakayama)
Sandanme: Sd24w Tōshunryū (Tamanoi), Sd35e Shōsei (Sakaigawa), Sd80e Kiyonoumi (Tamanoi)
Jonidan: Jd40w Mishima (Naruto), Jd60w Suguro (Fujishima), Jd87e Takashōki (Tokiwayama)
Jonokuchi: Jk11w Asahakuryū (Takasago)

Some more surprises in the lower divisions today. There will be no Nishonoseki dōbeya playoff for the makushita yūshō, after Kayō lost to Kaizen, setting up a straight 6-0 clash for the makushita yūshō. Shiden lost to Ryūō to significantly dent, if not almost entirely eliminate, his hopes of promotion to jūryō.

In sandanme, Daiseizan's jinx kicked in a "round" early. The Tamanoi pair prevailed, so one of them will have to fight a 5-1 and hope to win, setting up a playoff in that event. Otherwise, the winner of the sandanme yūshō is the winner of the 6-0 matchup.

Amao lost to Mishima in jonidan, leaving Takashōki to stay in the 6-0 bracket; one of the other two shouldn't have a problem sorting him out. Meanwhile, Asahakuryū is the only undefeated rikishi in jonokuchi, but as often happens, will still need to win his last bout to avoid a possible 6-1 playoff.

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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 11

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X 0-0-11 Terunofuji YO      
      O Takakeishō 3-4-4 X
3 5-6 Wakatakakage S Hōshōryū 8-3 O
O 8-3 Kiribayama S      
O 8-3 Wakamotoharu K Kotonowaka 8-3 O
O 9-2 Daieishō K Tobizaru 4-7 4
      M1 Shōdai 6-5 2
3 6-5 Abi M2      
X 4-7 Mitakeumi M3      
      M4      
      M5 Midorifuji 10-1 O
3 8-3 Endō M6      
4 7-4 Hokutofuji M7 Takayasu 7-4 4

Demotion queue: Tobizaru, Wakatakakage
Promotion queue: Midorifuji, Shōdai, Abi, Endō

It's rare that lower sanyaku performs this well. No less than 3 KKs were scored today, being that of Hōshōryū, Kiribayama, and Wakamotoharu, limiting the maximum slots opening in sanyaku via demotion to 2. That would be Tobizaru, who needs to win out to avoid demotion, and Wakatakakage, who can drop at most two more. (They've already fought each other today, so they won't cannibalise each other's opportunity at a KK.) Fairly neatly, the number of possible promotions is also very limited: Midorifuji is the only obvious candidate (provided he doesn't lose out), while everyone else other than Endō has yet to score their KKs.

The good performance of the lower sanyaku also opens up the possibility of any of the three KK komusubi forcing a fourth sekiwake slot via the 11-win path. Daieishō only needs 2 from 4 while the other two need 3 (and Kotonowaka and Wakamotoharu must fight each other, so one of them is limited to max 3 wins). I'm seeing three likely scenarios for lower sanyaku next basho: 1) either Midorifuji just swaps in for Tobizaru with all the rest staying where they are,  2) Tobizaru gets demoted, Wakatakakage falls to komusubi, one of the komusubi force a sekiwake slot, and Midorifuji is the fourth komusubi, or 3) Tobizaru switches with Midorifuji, and one of the komusubi force a sekiwake slot. There are some other outre possibilities (like a blazing finish by Midorifuji opening another komusubi slot regardless of incumbent performance), but we're most likely going to have seven lower sanyaku next basho again, although whether it's 4S3K or 3S4K remains to be seen.

Makuuchi/jūryō

1 4-7 Myōgiryū M10      
4 1-10 Azumaryū M11      
O 5-6 Kagayaki M12 Takarafuji 4-7 2
      M13      
      M14 Bushōzan 4-7 3
O 7-4 Hokuseihō M15 Ōhō 5-6 2
      M16 Tsurugishō 6-5 2
2 6-5 Mitoryū M17      
O 10-1 Asanoyama J1 Tōhakuryū 5-6 3
      J2      
O 10-1 Ichinojō J3 Shōnannoumi 6-5 3
      J4      
      J5 Enhō 6-5 4
3 8-3 Gōnoyama J6      
X 6-5 Akua J7      

Demotion queue: Azumaryū, Bushōzan, Mitoryū, Tsurugishō
Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Ichinojō, Tōhakuryū, Shōnannoumi

Other than Azumaryū, who needs to win out to save himself, no one else looks immediately demotable. Bushōzan is high enough that even a 6-9 might be borderline (unless they are as strict as they were last basho), while Mitoryū, Tsurugishō,and Ōhō can all save themselves with 2 more wins. That's a problem given the two extremely strong promotion cases of Asanoyama and Ichinojō, so on top of it being unlikely that anyone else will be promoted this time, someone in makuuchi might get the short end of the stick in being demoted rather harshly. There's of course also the hope that there's an unexpected retirement, but Takarafuji is perhaps the only possible - if unlikely - candidate for that.

Jūryō/makushita

      J8      
1 4-7 Tsushimanada J9      
2 4-7 Kōtokuzan J10      
2 4-7 Shimanoumi J11      
3 4-7 Tochimusashi J12 Takakentō 7-4 O
1 6-5 Tamashōhō J13 Tomokaze 6-5 1
4 4-7 Tokushōryū J14      
X 2-4 Tsukahara Ms1      
~ 3-3 Fujiseiun Ms2 Chiyosakae 5-1 O
      Ms3 Kawazoe 4-2 ~
      Ms4      
X 3-3 Chiyonoumi Ms5      

Demotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tochimusashi, Shimanoumi, Kōtokuzan
Promotion queue: Chiyosakae, Kawazoe (with a win), Fujiseiun (with a win), Kawazoe (with a loss)

In the (misquoted) words of Jamie Hyneman, "they just keep winnin', y'know?" Other than Tokushōryū, who's now one away from riding the elevator to hell, ALL 3-7s in the demotion zone won today to stave off MK and possible demotion. Which is just as well that makushita lost a lot of promotion cases, with losses by Shiden, Chiyonoumi, and Tsukahara removing them from contention (maybe Shiden has a borderline case with a 6-1 from Ms6e, but not likely given the lack of clear demotion cases), while Fujiseiun and Kawazoe's losses take a lot of pressure off the demotion cases. The only outright promotion case is Chiyosakae, waiting to pounce on Tokushōryū's berth, and that's about it. Fujiseiun and Kawazoe will want to win to strengthen their promotion cases vis-a-vis each other, but must also pray that the 4-7s falter in the home stretch, because otherwise they're not getting a peek in.

Edited by Seiyashi
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